The Weekly Take, Issue 156: 2012 All Over Again?

It has been said that history has a way of repeating itself. Incredibly, we could be witnessing this adage in action in this season's Champions League.

In the 2011-12 season, an unfancied Chelsea team which endured a difficult Premier League season and fired an underperforming head coach mid-season completed a stunning underdog Champions League run which included a spectacular semifinal upset of a Spanish powerhouse (in that season, it was Barcelona).

Nine years later, and would you look at that - Chelsea entered the season on absolutely nobody's radar to make a deep Champions League run, let alone win the whole thing. They have not been in good form in the Premier League. Frank Lampard's dismal performance as the Blues' man in the dugout saw him lose his job in favour of Thomas Tuchel. And once again, Chelsea have been overcoming tremendous odds on their tournament journey thus far and could again upset a Spanish giant - Real Madrid this time.

In the first leg of their Champions League semifinal tie, Chelsea held Real to a 1-1 draw. Although Chelsea could not leave the Alfredo Di Stéfano Stadium with the victory, Christian Pulisic scored a crucial away goal that will give the London club the upper hand heading into next week's second leg.

Somehow, some way, Chelsea are actually likely to make the Champions League final. Those of you who have been following my blog for a while will know that I have often been rather critical of Chelsea. I've typically singled out club owner Roman Abramovich for blame; however, I've also sharply criticized Chelsea players and coaches alike in some of my previous posts.

However, credit where it's due - at least in the Champions League, Chelsea have displayed impressive grit, resolve, and poise under duress. Ever since Thomas Tuchel succeeded Lampard as Chelsea's head coach, he has turned Chelsea into a team which will not fold no matter the opposition. This was clearly shown in their round of 16 tie against Atlético Madrid. Almost everyone, myself included, expected this to be a one-sided matchup. While it certainly was that, only the most fervent Chelsea stans (yes, stans. I doubt even ordinary Chelsea fans would've expected this) would've said that it would be one-sided in Chelsea's favour. Yet, that's exactly what transpired; Chelsea beat Atlético 3-0 on aggregate, sending the Madrid club out of the tournament far earlier than most had anticipated.

On paper, there appears to be no reason why Chelsea should be doing this well. While N'Golo Kanté remains probably the world's best defensive midfielder, as he has been for the last four years or so, the players around him don't seem to particularly move the needle. Timo Werner has been a shadow of the RB Leipzig centre-forward who regularly destroyed defenses in the Bundesliga and beyond. He is on his way to his lowest goal tally in a season since 2016. Other much-heralded arrivals such as Hakim Ziyech, Pulisic, and Kai Havertz have thoroughly underwhelmed at Stamford Bridge thus far.

When looking at the other key players at Chelsea, the names that most stick out are the likes of Kurt Zouma, Ben Chilwell, Jorginho, a 36-year-old Thiago Silva, and Mason Mount. Though none of them seem to be players who could form the nucleus of a Champions League-winning team, if things break their way, that could end up being what actually happens.

Perhaps one of the secrets to Chelsea's success this season has been their extremely balanced attack. The fact that their superstar is a defensive midfielder means that more players take up the goalscoring burden, giving Chelsea a more diverse attacking threat. This fact is evidenced by this statistic: with just five matchdays in the Premier League season, no Chelsea player has scored more than six league goals thus far; Werner, Tammy Abraham, Mount, and Jorginho have all managed a half-dozen apiece. Even more astonishingly, their next-highest league goalscorer is Zouma - a centre-back.

Chelsea have silenced a myriad of doubters and critics (myself included) during this remarkable Champions League run. Could they cap it off with not only a victory against Real, a title which would be remembered forever?

I never thought I would say these words, but write off this Chelsea team at your peril.

The Weekly Take, Issue 155: Collapsing at the Final Hurdles?

After a chaotic, turbulent week in the football world which ultimately saw good sense prevail with the shelving of The Super League (at least for now), normal service was resumed to some extent.

This matchday saw Wolfsburg host Borussia Dortmund in a Bundesliga match with major consequences in the chase for one of the four Champions League spots. Dortmund left Lower Saxony with all three points, winning 2-0 thanks to two goals scored by Erling Haaland. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, lost despite almost every metric indicating that this was a match which they should have won.

Dortmund played more than a third of the match with 10 men after Jude Bellingham's received a red card in the 59th minute. In addition, Die Wölfe attempted 21 shots to Dortmund's eight and had 10 corner kicks compared to just two in favour of Dortmund.

With just three matchdays remaining in this season's Bundesliga, Wolfsburg's chances of holding on to a top-four spot and a place in next season's Champions League have begun to look increasingly slim. Although they remain third in the league, Wolfsburg lead fourth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt by just one point and Dortmund by two. In addition, Wolfsburg's form has been poor, having lost three of their last four matches. Conversely, Dortmund's victory was their fourth in a row as they close in on a Champions League berth of their own.

For most of this seasons, Wolfsburg had appeared well-placed to unexpectedly clinch a top-four spot for the first time in six years. Their success had been largely due to the breakout season of Dutch striker Wout Weghorst, whose 20 league goals have made up almost 40% of all of Wolfsburg's goals in the Bundesliga. That said, this team is not just about Weghorst - players such as Ridle Baku, Xaver Schlager, Maximilian Arnold, and John Brooks have turned in impressive performances throughout this season.

It appears that Wolfsburg are beginning to suffer the same fate that has befallen so many underdog teams in such a position: the pressure of the moment seems to be getting to them. Prior to this recent slump, Wolfsburg had won nine of their previous 11 league matches, picking up 28 points along the way. Just three weeks ago, everything seemed to be going very well indeed at the Volkswagen Arena.

How quickly the tables have turned. To make matters worse, Wolfsburg's three recent losses have been against Frankfurt, league leaders Bayern Munich, and now Dortmund. This means that they have lost to two direct rivals in the race for a top-four spot as well as the champions-to-be. It doesn't get any easier for them, either; Wolfsburg next have a potentially difficult match against Union Berlin followed by one against RB Leipzig. Their struggles in the most important league matches against their immediate competition have clearly exposed their frailties; it could very well be a disappointing end to what had up to now seemed to have been such a promising season.

It's not as though Wolfsburg do not have any experience in this situation. Two seasons ago, they were also competing with four other clubs for the fourth and final Bundesliga berth in the 2019-20 Champions League. Interestingly, it was a very similar stretch that did them in; over a seven-match stretch from March 3 to April 22, 2019, Wolfsburg picked up just eight points, winning only two matches. This slump included losses to Bayern, Dortmund, and Leipzig as well as draws against Werder Bremen and Frankfurt - all clubs which would finish that season in the top eight. Wolfsburg missed a top-four spot by three points.

Although this Wolfsburg team is certainly not devoid of talent, their play in high-leverage matches over the past few seasons definitely calls their mentality into question. This is the part of the season which reveals a team's true character and puts their status as either contenders or pretenders on full display. Unfortunately for Wolfsburg, it appears that they are likely in the latter category. A lot will be decided by their match against Leipzig on May 15.

Can Wolfsburg hold their nerve and summon the mental strength to get over the line this time? It isn't out of the question, but given what they have shown recently, it does not seem all that likely.

The Weekly Take, Issue 154: This Will Change (Almost) Nothing

The recent announcement on the formation of The Super League, a proposed 12-club league to feature clubs from Italy, England, and Spain, has sent shockwaves across the world of football. Something which stands out is the response to the Super League: almost everyone appears to be vehemently against this decision.

Fans, analysts, football associations, and even politicians - all have been vociferous in condemning the 12 clubs' decision to separate themselves from what is now mainstream domestic and European football and start this new league.

Their respective responses are understandable, given everything we know thus far. There is a distinct possibility that The Super League will widen the gap between the leading clubs and the rest of the field while serving to enrich the pockets of these clubs' owners at the expense of everyone associated with other clubs. Some have even branded the move to be an anti-competitive one which undermines the current level of balance which exists in the Champions League as well as domestic leagues.

However (and I'm ready to face your pitchforks for saying this): from my perspective, I believe that the establishment of The Super League will change very little from both the structural and competitive perspectives.

Perhaps the main reason why I believe the reaction to The Super League is overblown is this: the Champions League as it is now is effectively a "super league" of sorts.

Think about it for a moment. Since 1998, if Bayern Munich are excluded (they are excluded because though they wouldn't be part of The Super League, they are clearly on that level), only once has a non-Super League club won the Champions League: Porto in 2004. What's more, almost every team since then which has made at least the semifinals in each season has either been Bayern, the cash-rich Paris Saint-Germain, or one of the Super League clubs.

Those who say that "it shows that money is ruining the game" have clearly not been paying attention to football over the last 20 years. That ship has long sailed. The era of the transfer arms race began a very long time ago and shows no signs of abating. Even the installation of the so-called "Financial Fair Play" regulations did absolutely nothing to curb it. Nothing will change even if The Super League does not come into being.

Some even claim that the creation of The Super League will "dilute history". This is an exceedingly ridiculous point which can easily be debunked. When the World Cup changed its competition format in 1982 and again in 1998, did previous World Cup titles suddenly stop being less prestigious? When the Champions League went through not one, not two, but three format changes in the 1990s, did anyone say anything about the dilution of football history back then?

The detractors do have one valid point: it will weaken the general standard of domestic league and cup play. But let's be real: at this level, every club wants a Champions League (and subsequently a Super League) title more than anything else. Domestic leagues and especially domestic cups already take a backseat to the Champions League as things are now.

If anything, my biggest concern over The Super League is, ironically enough, the selection of the clubs which would be participating in it. Among the 12 clubs, probably the leading title contenders would be Manchester City and Inter Milan, with a group of seven other clubs potentially having a puncher's chance themselves.

Then, we come to the three London clubs: Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham. These three are so far behind the other nine clubs that in my estimation, the inclusion of these clubs in The Super League would actually damage the overall product. Though the league is obviously intended to be a money-making venture, the sight of Arsenal or Tottenham getting destroyed by City or Barcelona or Inter every week would not be a good look at all.

Assuming that The Super League goes ahead, I'd say that there are certainly some rough edges to be worked on and several serious issues to consider. However, if all goes according to these clubs' plans, the only major change I see happening is the Super League's supplanting of the Champions League as Europe's preeminent club football competition.

The Weekly Take, Issue 153: From Juggernaut to Plucky Underdog

The last time that Real Madrid and Liverpool played a Champions League match against each other, Real clinched their third consecutive Champions League title and fourth in five seasons by beating the Reds 3-1 in the final of the 2017-18 season's tournament. The victory established Real as one of the, if not the single, greatest club team of all time.

Almost three years later, Real are nowhere near the pantheon-level territory they once occupied. They were not expected to be serious contenders for silverware this season; La Liga and the Champions League included. However, they took a step closer to yet another Champions League title by once again beating Liverpool 3-1, this time in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal tie. Vinícius Júnior's two goals either side of Marco Asensio's strike gave Los Merengues a commanding lead heading into the second leg. They are now all but certain to make the semifinals for the ninth time in the last 11 seasons.

Real's role reversal since their 2018 triumph has been easily noticeable. Ever since the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo to Juventus that off-season, they have only claimed one title: last season's La Liga title. They have been knocked out of the Champions League in the round of 16 in both of the past two seasons and are not expected to retain their La Liga title.

In addition, unlike what has often been the case, Real Madrid did not make any signings during either of this season's transfer windows. Several players who, while not necessarily regular starters, were nevertheless notable contributors also left the club, significantly reducing the roster's depth.

Real's cause has not been helped by the injury woes of star winger Eden Hazard. Almost inexplicably, Hazard's body seemingly disintegrated upon his arrival at Real from Chelsea in 2019. Prior to the 2019-20 season, Hazard had played in at least 30 league matches in each of the preceding 11 campaigns. Since then, however, the Belgian has only featured in 25 La Liga matches - an alarming figure, considering the fact that Real signed him for an eye-popping €100 million.

Yet somehow, in their new role as underdogs, Real have been defying expectations this season. The recent slump experienced by crosstown rivals and league leaders Atlético Madrid has allowed Real to close to within three points of Atlético. They are also likely to make the Champions League final because they will likely play against Chelsea in the semifinal. This is a matchup which is very much in Real's favour.

Perhaps the most impressive part of Real Madrid's success this season has been the fact that this is an aging squad. Players such as Karim Benzema, Sergio Ramos, Toni Kroos, and Luka Modrić who are all in the latter portions of their respective careers are having impressive seasons. Many would have expected the age-related drop-off to have come this season, but they have clearly staved it off - at least for now.

This season also has to rank among head coach Zinedine Zidane's most impressive coaching displays to date. That may be a very big claim indeed, given the fact that he presided over Real's historic run of three straight Champions League titles. However, when considering the general expectations of Real heading into the season, "Zizou" has exceeded them and then some. Even if Real finish the season without a trophy, Zidane ought to once again be considered for another The Best FIFA Football Coach award - an accolade he last won in 2017.

It is also possible that the lack of expectations has helped Real this season. Over the years, Real Madrid squads have been burdened by the weight of having to live up to the reputation of the world's most successful football club. This in turn has sometimes caused them to underperform on the biggest stages. However, this season, Real have been playing with a lack of inhibition that hasn't always been there in the post-Ronaldo era; it isn't out of the question that this is because of their newfound underdog status.

Though it does not seem likely that Real will add a record-extending 14th Champions League title to their overflowing trophy cabinet this season, for the reasons mentioned, it would be by far their most satisfying and thrilling victory if they were to somehow do it.

The Weekly Take, Issue 152: A Chasm Between Them and the Rest

During the most recent Bundesliga matchday, Bayern Munich all but clinched yet another Bundesliga title by beating RB Leipzig 1-0. Leon Goretzka's goal extended Bayern's lead over their Saxony-based opponents to seven points with just seven matchdays remaining.

At this point, to call the gap between Bayern and the rest of the field merely a "gap" does a disservice to how absurdly dominant Bayern have been ever since the post-pandemic resumption of top-level football in Europe. The second-best team on the planet behind Bayern at the moment is likely one among Inter Milan, Leipzig, or Manchester City. Right now, all three of these teams are not even remotely close to Bayern's level.

Bayern have created a level of separation between themselves and the field which has not been seen since Pep Guardiola's Barcelona team was at its peak. Even the Real Madrid team of 2013-18 which won four Champions League titles including three in a row was never quite this dominant. Not only have Bayern almost certainly secured a ninth consecutive Bundesliga title; it will almost be impossible to deny them back-to-back Champions League titles.

Bayern is a truly storied club with a rich history. With six Champions Leagues, 30 league titles, and 20 DFB-Pokals to their name, any player or team which is to carve out its own place in Bayern's history faces an uphill task. That's what makes it even more amazing that the current iteration of Die Roten might very well be the greatest in the club's history.

The obvious comparison would, of course, be the Bayern team of the mid-1970s which won three consecutive European Cups from 1974 to 1976. This team was arguably even more stacked than Bayern today; it contained legendary players such as Uli Hoeneß, Gerd Müller, Sepp Maier, Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, and, of course, the greatest defender who ever lived in Franz Beckenbauer.

At first glance, the Bayern squad of today do not appear to have quite the same level of star power. The only true all-time greats on the roster at the moment are Manuel Neuer and Robert Lewandowski. However, 2021 Bayern's biggest advantage over its counterpart from over four decades ago is its unmatched depth. This is a starting 11 which features the likes of Alphonso Davies, Joshua Kimmich, Goretzka, Thomas Müller, and Serge Gnabry. Almost as if to rub it in for every other club, Bayern even enjoy the luxury of playing Leroy Sané and Lucas Hernandez off the bench.

Ever since the beginning of 2020, Bayern have attained a level of excellence both on and off the field which has very rarely been seen in the history of world football. Last season, they became the first team in the modern Champions League era to win every single match on their way to the title while averaging almost three goals per match en route to winning the Bundesliga title by 13 points.

This season, they have not missed a beat in continuing their success. Their 79 league goals almost equal the combined tally of Leipzig and VfL Wolfsburg who sit second and third in the league respectively. Ever since losing to Borussia Mönchengladbach on December 7, 2019, Bayern have lost a total of just three matches in regulation in all competitions.

At the individual level, Lewandowski is all but a certainty to win the Ballon d'Or and his second consecutive The Best FIFA award. Among the most recent FIFPro World11, four Bayern players were selected: Kimmich, Lewandowski, Davies, and Thiago Alcântara who has since left Bavaria for Liverpool. What's more, centre-back Jérôme Boateng was likely denied a deserving spot in the world's best 11: Sergio Ramos was instead the selection; this pick was likely made based on name recognition rather than actual performance. Boateng clearly outperformed Ramos throughout the season. 

In their upcoming Champions League quarterfinal, Bayern will play against PSG. Although it is a rematch of last season's final, it should be fairly one-sided in favour of Bayern. The fact that a team like PSG who can boast of many stars of their own are likely to have absolutely no chance against Bayern speaks volumes of just how incredible Bayern have been.

Even as a Borussia Dortmund fan, I must admit: we are witnessing a team for the ages.

The Weekly Take, Issue 151: The Pressure to Deliver a Title Increases

The first matchday of qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup saw Belgium take on Wales at the King Power at Den Dreef. As was expected, Belgium recorded an easy victory, beating Wales 3-1 through goals scored by Kevin De Bruyne, Thorgan Hazard, and Romelu Lukaku.

With Euro 2020 (yes, it will still bear that name) approaching and the World Cup just over a year and a half away, there are two more chances for far and away the greatest era in the history of Belgium's national team to culminate in a first-ever tournament victory. After years of near-misses, doing so would be especially sweet.

Considering Belgium's current standing within the international football landscape today, the national team's record prior to the 2014 World Cup is often overlooked. Up to that point, it had been utterly abject. Only once had Belgium even made it to the quarterfinals of a World Cup; they had even failed to qualify for the prior two.

Belgium's record at the European Championships told a similar story. After losing to West Germany in the 1980 final, Belgium would not advance beyond the group stage again until 2016. In fact, from 1984 to 2012, Belgium did not even qualify for a single European Championship; the only one in which they participated was Euro 2000, which they co-hosted with the Netherlands.

Times have clearly changed; players such as Lukaku, De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, and Thibaut Courtois have turned Belgium into one of the world's football powerhouses over the past seven years or so. However, seemingly burdened by the weight of history, they have frequently faltered on the biggest stages when the lights have been at their brightest.

The most glaring example of this was their 2018 World Cup semifinal against France. This was a match which many considered to be the tournament's "true" final; the winner would almost certainly go on to beat Croatia in the final. With a potential World Cup title on the line, Belgium could not reach their peak level of play; with a 1-0 loss, they let perhaps their best chance to win a major international tournament slip through their fingers.

There is a possibility that redemption may come at Euro 2020. Belgium have been placed into a relatively simple group containing Denmark, Finland, and Russia. None of these teams should pose them much of a threat. Unfortunately for Belgium, there is a possibility that their first knockout-stage match could be a difficult one. Assuming they finish first in Group B, Belgium have a 1 in 4 chance of playing against the third-placed team of Group F in the round of 16.

Ordinarily, this would not be an issue, but this is not the case in this tournament. Group F is the "Group of Death" containing Portugal, France, and Germany. Not only are these teams all good enough to beat Belgium; they also happen to be the three most recent European teams to win a major international tournament. Given this fact, it is not unimaginable that Belgium might wilt under the pressure while these teams might not.

After the European Championships, Belgium will play against France in the UEFA Nations League semifinals in October. Victory against Les Bleus would then see Belgium face off against Italy or Spain in the final. With just two wins required, this could very well be Belgium's best chance at a title. But once again, the question remains: can Roberto Martínez's team keep their composure and overcome what seems to be a major mental block?

Not much information can necessarily be gleaned from Belgium's results in the World Cup qualifiers. As a top seed, they were placed in Pot 1 and thus handed a relatively easy draw. Wales, the Czech Republic, Belarus, and Estonia should all be dispatched without much difficulty. Once again, the real test will come at the tournament itself in Qatar. However, after coming up short in 2014, 2016, 2018, and potentially twice more in 2021 and with many of their core players near the end of their peak years at that point, there may at that point be more questions over the Belgium team than ever before.

It is for these reasons that perhaps no other contender is under the pressure to win next year's World Cup than Belgium. If they do not rise to the occasion, that could be their last chance gone.

The Weekly Take, Issue 150: Peaking at the Right Time?

In a match which will have major implications on the race for a top-four spot in Serie A and the Champions League berth that goes with it, Napoli beat Roma 2-0. Dries Mertens scored both goals within a seven-minute span in the first half. The victory saw Napoli close to within two points of Juventus and Atalanta who are third and fourth in the league respectively. Crucially, Napoli have a match in hand against Juve; victory in that would now see Gli Azzurri leapfrog Juve and move into third.

Napoli experienced mixed fortunes last season. Despite winning the Coppa Italia by beating Juve on penalties in the final, Napoli only managed to finish seventh in Serie A. This represented their worst league finish since 2009. The club's campaign was marked by instability throughout - a fact made clear with the December 2019 firing of legendary coach Carlo Ancelotti. Ancelotti was replaced by Gennaro Gattuso, whose results at the helm to date have been somewhat inconsistent.

That said, things are starting to look brighter at the Stadio San Paolo now. They have emerged from a slump during which they lost six out of 12 league matches, winning four of their last five. Much to their good fortune, Napoli's resurgence has coincided with inconsistent play from their direct competitors for a top-four spot, keeping them firmly in the frame for Champions League play next season.

Unlike Juve, Atalanta, Roma, or AC Milan, Napoli appear to be peaking just as the season enters its final stretch. Their massive outlay on player transfers last season is also beginning to pay off. The likes of Hirving Lozano, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Diego Demme, and Matteo Di Politano were not quite able to fully gel with the team in 2019-20, in part due to the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, now that they have spent more time at the club, they have all improved tremendously from last season and have made crucial contributions to Napoli's success thus far.

One key to Napoli's improvement this season has been their attack. Last season, Napoli only scored 61 league goals. This was their lowest tally since 2011; their goal difference was also its worst since 2010. Arkadiusz Milik was Napoli's only player to reach double figures in Serie A. This season, though, Napoli have turned it around up front. With 11 matches remaining, they have already scored 58 goals in the league. Long-serving striker Lorenzo Insigne leads the club with 13; he could potentially match his career-best 18 which he netted in the 2016-17 season.

After a turbulent half-season in charge, Gattuso has also seemed to become much more familiar with his personnel and been able to adjust his tactics accordingly. Last season, he tended to favour a 4-3-3 formation which featured Milik at centre-forward and Piotr Zieliński in central midfield. On the wing, José Callejón was usually preferred over Lozano.

However, it has all changed this season. Gattuso now primarily opts for a 4-2-3-1 set up. Zieliński now occupies the number 10 role while Callejón and Milik's off-season departures have allowed Lozano and Mertens to become regular starters. With this new setup, Napoli's attacking threat down the wings has greatly improved from that of last season. It has also made them much more proficient at creating long-range shot opportunities.

In any case, Napoli must not get ahead of themselves. As I mentioned, there's still that upcoming clash against Juve on April 7; it will go a long way towards answering the question of whether there will be Champions League football in Naples next season. Roma and Lazio are also nipping at Napoli's heels; a late slump on Napoli's part coupled with a surge by either of both of the Rome-based clubs could see Napoli once again fail to qualify for next season's Champions League.

Nevertheless, it could very well be that Napoli are peaking at exactly the right time. A first league title since 1990 is out of the question; Inter Milan are champions-to-be with a massive lead and a match in hand. Despite this, the way Napoli have been playing over the past few weeks, they have every chance to make the top four. Of course, doing so by beating bitter rivals Juve and potentially knocking the Turin club out of the top four in the process would be especially sweet.