After a chaotic, turbulent week in the football world which ultimately saw good sense prevail with the shelving of The Super League (at least for now), normal service was resumed to some extent.
This matchday saw Wolfsburg host Borussia Dortmund in a Bundesliga match with major consequences in the chase for one of the four Champions League spots. Dortmund left Lower Saxony with all three points, winning 2-0 thanks to two goals scored by Erling Haaland. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, lost despite almost every metric indicating that this was a match which they should have won.
Dortmund played more than a third of the match with 10 men after Jude Bellingham's received a red card in the 59th minute. In addition, Die Wölfe attempted 21 shots to Dortmund's eight and had 10 corner kicks compared to just two in favour of Dortmund.
With just three matchdays remaining in this season's Bundesliga, Wolfsburg's chances of holding on to a top-four spot and a place in next season's Champions League have begun to look increasingly slim. Although they remain third in the league, Wolfsburg lead fourth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt by just one point and Dortmund by two. In addition, Wolfsburg's form has been poor, having lost three of their last four matches. Conversely, Dortmund's victory was their fourth in a row as they close in on a Champions League berth of their own.
For most of this seasons, Wolfsburg had appeared well-placed to unexpectedly clinch a top-four spot for the first time in six years. Their success had been largely due to the breakout season of Dutch striker Wout Weghorst, whose 20 league goals have made up almost 40% of all of Wolfsburg's goals in the Bundesliga. That said, this team is not just about Weghorst - players such as Ridle Baku, Xaver Schlager, Maximilian Arnold, and John Brooks have turned in impressive performances throughout this season.
It appears that Wolfsburg are beginning to suffer the same fate that has befallen so many underdog teams in such a position: the pressure of the moment seems to be getting to them. Prior to this recent slump, Wolfsburg had won nine of their previous 11 league matches, picking up 28 points along the way. Just three weeks ago, everything seemed to be going very well indeed at the Volkswagen Arena.
How quickly the tables have turned. To make matters worse, Wolfsburg's three recent losses have been against Frankfurt, league leaders Bayern Munich, and now Dortmund. This means that they have lost to two direct rivals in the race for a top-four spot as well as the champions-to-be. It doesn't get any easier for them, either; Wolfsburg next have a potentially difficult match against Union Berlin followed by one against RB Leipzig. Their struggles in the most important league matches against their immediate competition have clearly exposed their frailties; it could very well be a disappointing end to what had up to now seemed to have been such a promising season.
It's not as though Wolfsburg do not have any experience in this situation. Two seasons ago, they were also competing with four other clubs for the fourth and final Bundesliga berth in the 2019-20 Champions League. Interestingly, it was a very similar stretch that did them in; over a seven-match stretch from March 3 to April 22, 2019, Wolfsburg picked up just eight points, winning only two matches. This slump included losses to Bayern, Dortmund, and Leipzig as well as draws against Werder Bremen and Frankfurt - all clubs which would finish that season in the top eight. Wolfsburg missed a top-four spot by three points.
Although this Wolfsburg team is certainly not devoid of talent, their play in high-leverage matches over the past few seasons definitely calls their mentality into question. This is the part of the season which reveals a team's true character and puts their status as either contenders or pretenders on full display. Unfortunately for Wolfsburg, it appears that they are likely in the latter category. A lot will be decided by their match against Leipzig on May 15.
Can Wolfsburg hold their nerve and summon the mental strength to get over the line this time? It isn't out of the question, but given what they have shown recently, it does not seem all that likely.
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