Sunday, March 21, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 150: Peaking at the Right Time?

In a match which will have major implications on the race for a top-four spot in Serie A and the Champions League berth that goes with it, Napoli beat Roma 2-0. Dries Mertens scored both goals within a seven-minute span in the first half. The victory saw Napoli close to within two points of Juventus and Atalanta who are third and fourth in the league respectively. Crucially, Napoli have a match in hand against Juve; victory in that would now see Gli Azzurri leapfrog Juve and move into third.

Napoli experienced mixed fortunes last season. Despite winning the Coppa Italia by beating Juve on penalties in the final, Napoli only managed to finish seventh in Serie A. This represented their worst league finish since 2009. The club's campaign was marked by instability throughout - a fact made clear with the December 2019 firing of legendary coach Carlo Ancelotti. Ancelotti was replaced by Gennaro Gattuso, whose results at the helm to date have been somewhat inconsistent.

That said, things are starting to look brighter at the Stadio San Paolo now. They have emerged from a slump during which they lost six out of 12 league matches, winning four of their last five. Much to their good fortune, Napoli's resurgence has coincided with inconsistent play from their direct competitors for a top-four spot, keeping them firmly in the frame for Champions League play next season.

Unlike Juve, Atalanta, Roma, or AC Milan, Napoli appear to be peaking just as the season enters its final stretch. Their massive outlay on player transfers last season is also beginning to pay off. The likes of Hirving Lozano, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Diego Demme, and Matteo Di Politano were not quite able to fully gel with the team in 2019-20, in part due to the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, now that they have spent more time at the club, they have all improved tremendously from last season and have made crucial contributions to Napoli's success thus far.

One key to Napoli's improvement this season has been their attack. Last season, Napoli only scored 61 league goals. This was their lowest tally since 2011; their goal difference was also its worst since 2010. Arkadiusz Milik was Napoli's only player to reach double figures in Serie A. This season, though, Napoli have turned it around up front. With 11 matches remaining, they have already scored 58 goals in the league. Long-serving striker Lorenzo Insigne leads the club with 13; he could potentially match his career-best 18 which he netted in the 2016-17 season.

After a turbulent half-season in charge, Gattuso has also seemed to become much more familiar with his personnel and been able to adjust his tactics accordingly. Last season, he tended to favour a 4-3-3 formation which featured Milik at centre-forward and Piotr Zieliński in central midfield. On the wing, José Callejón was usually preferred over Lozano.

However, it has all changed this season. Gattuso now primarily opts for a 4-2-3-1 set up. Zieliński now occupies the number 10 role while Callejón and Milik's off-season departures have allowed Lozano and Mertens to become regular starters. With this new setup, Napoli's attacking threat down the wings has greatly improved from that of last season. It has also made them much more proficient at creating long-range shot opportunities.

In any case, Napoli must not get ahead of themselves. As I mentioned, there's still that upcoming clash against Juve on April 7; it will go a long way towards answering the question of whether there will be Champions League football in Naples next season. Roma and Lazio are also nipping at Napoli's heels; a late slump on Napoli's part coupled with a surge by either of both of the Rome-based clubs could see Napoli once again fail to qualify for next season's Champions League.

Nevertheless, it could very well be that Napoli are peaking at exactly the right time. A first league title since 1990 is out of the question; Inter Milan are champions-to-be with a massive lead and a match in hand. Despite this, the way Napoli have been playing over the past few weeks, they have every chance to make the top four. Of course, doing so by beating bitter rivals Juve and potentially knocking the Turin club out of the top four in the process would be especially sweet.

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