Sunday, March 7, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 148: Still Missing That X-Factor

The recent Manchester derby did not end the way many had expected. Premier League champions-to-be Manchester City lost 2-0 to Manchester United. Bruno Fernandes opened the scoring for United with (as is almost expected at this point) a penalty kick before Luke Shaw sealed the three points for the Red Devils with a second-half goal.

Now, it is true that this result will almost certainly have no bearing on the league title race. Even with the loss, City are still leading the league by 11 points over United with just 10 matches remaining. That being said, the fact that City were nowhere near their best in a match in which they had been expected to make a clear statement to not only the rest of England, but Europe as well, points to a larger problem. This problem is one which has been evident at City for years - it was there long before Pep Guardiola took over as head coach and has persisted to this day.

It cannot be doubted that the Citizens have been extremely consistent over the past decade. Four Premier League titles, two FA Cups, 10 consecutive top-four league finishes, and an average of 82 league points per season - results of which any club would be envious. However, when we take a closer look, some worrying trends become apparent.

During this same period, only once have City advanced beyond the quarterfinals of the Champions League. In addition, City's lowest moments have been particularly disappointing for a club of their stature, especially when considering how they came about. Lowlights include a group-stage Champions League exit in the 2011-12 season, a loss to Wigan Athletic in the 2013 FA Cup final, a dismal 2015-16 Premier League campaign in which they only garnered 66 points and barely made the top four, and a 2017 Champions League round of 16 elimination against Monaco.

The main point is this: there have been times during which City have looked like a well-oiled machine primed to dominate world football. However, when considering all the money invested by owner Sheikh Mansour, it must be concluded that this club has again and again proven to be a paper tiger when the stakes have been at their highest.

On paper, City have all the elements needed to take their place as a team which should be making deep Champions League runs every year while also easily finishing first or second in the league. However, the fact of the matter is that against the very best teams, City just don't have that "something extra" - that additional gear that sees them go from being merely an excellent team to one which plays in a completely different stratosphere.

That's not necessarily that big of a knock on City; I'd say that today, there are only four other teams capable of achieving such a level. These are Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Atlético Madrid, and (in spite of their struggles this season) Liverpool. However, if City are to win the Champions League for the first time in the club's history, they need to find a way to reach that level - if they can't do so, claiming the biggest prize in European club football will be almost impossible.

City have also begun to turn, if they haven't already, into a team which only performs as frontrunners. For all of Guardiola's brilliance as a coach, he has not been able to instill a mindset of resilience and grit within City's players. A prime example of this could be seen in their Champions League quarterfinal against Lyon last season. With the score at 1-1 and just 15 minutes remaining, City had to dig deep and tap into their unquestionable quality to finish off a Lyon side which had proven to be surprisingly difficult to put away. Instead, City capitulated, conceding two goals in an eight-minute span and thus crashing out of the tournament.

It isn't impossible to acquire this trait; after years of underachieving and choking, PSG, for example, seem to have begun to do so. However, the key difference between City and PSG is that in City's case, it appears to be systemic. PSG seem to have become a whole new team since giving the "keys" to Kylian Mbappé. City, on the other hand, have spent much of the last decade that the matches have to be played; they are neither won on paper nor with money.

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