The Weekly Take, Issue 253: Closer to the Drought's End

AC Milan's 1-0 victory over Napoli in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal fixture sent a clear message to every other club in Europe: "we are back and we are legit".

Taking advantage of the absence of Napoli's superstar centre-forward Victor Osimhen, the Rossoneri scored the only goal of the match five minutes before half-time. Ismaël Bennacer scored his first career Champions League goal after receiving a pass from Brahim Díaz. In the second half, Milan received further help when André-Frank Zambo Anguissa received his marching orders after receiving his second yellow card. The victory put Milan on the cusp of their first Champions League semifinal since the 2006-07 seasons - the last time they won it all. Repeating the feat 16 years later would unquestionably be more impressive than any of the seven titles they have won to date.

Milan proved that their recent 4-0 Serie A victory over runaway league leaders Napoli was no fluke. From a tactical standpoint, Milan's counter-attacking tactics completely overwhelmed Gli Azzurri; Milan repeatedly restricted to shot attempts unlikely to result in a goal while creating several probable goal-scoring opportunities themselves. In fact, just a few minutes after Bennacer's goal, Milan could easily have made it 2-0, but centre-back Simon Kjær's header struck the crossbar.

The vibes around the red half of the San Siro are overwhelmingly different from those earlier in the season. Six months ago, Milan were coming off back-to-back Champions League losses to Chelsea. Across those two matches, Milan scored zero goals, conceded five, and collected nine yellow cards and one red - and all of this against the team generally considered to be the laughingstock of European football this season. Having been drawn against Chelsea, Red Bull Salzburg, and Dinamo Zagreb in Group E, Milan were widely expected to cruise into the round of 16; however, at this point their Champions League future was hanging in the balance. Things weren't going much better domestically, either. A slow start to the season saw the reigning Serie A champions lie fifth in the league after nine matches.

In due time, however, things began to change. Milan would soon reel off a sequence of 11 Serie A matches in which they would lose just one, climbing to second place in the league in the process. Dominant Champions League victories over Dinamo and Salzburg were followed by an impressive, resolute round of 16 victory over Tottenham Hotspur after the World Cup break.

Heading into both of their recent matches against Napoli, Milan had been favoured against neither of them. The first 4-0 victory at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona sent shockwaves throughout the football world, as Napoli had been the definition of "dominance" in their domestic play this season. Having once again risen to the occasion against the same opponents, this time on European football's biggest stage, Milan have proven that they do indeed have a puncher's chance to go all the way.

This could be the best chance at a Champions League title that Milan could have for quite some time. The other three teams which will almost certainly be the other semifinalists are Real Madrid, Manchester City, and Milan's cross-town arch-rivals Inter Milan. In the case of Milan's likely semifinal opponents Inter, derby matches are always a toss-up - especially when the pressure is at its highest. Should they survive that, they would go on to face Real or City in the final. This is the weakest Real team in several years. Domestically, they trail league leaders Barcelona by 13 points. City, meanwhile, have a history of underperforming in high-leverage Champions League matches. Although Milan would enter the final as the underdog regardless of their opponent, one would think that they would fancy their chances either way.

It wasn't all that long ago when the scenario in which AC Milan find themselves today seemed unthinkable. In the 2020 off-season, Milan had failed to qualify for the Champions League for seven consecutive seasons and had fallen as low as 10th in the league in 2014-15. Their rise back up the ranks has been as swift as their fall was all those years ago. Now, Milan stand just four matches away from the completion of the most remarkable renaissance that European football has seen in many years.

The Weekly Take, Issue 252: The Beginning of a Title Challenge Unraveling?

When the story of the 2022-23 Premier League season is fully told, this most recent matchday might very well end up serving as the turning point of the entire narrative.

In an away match against Liverpool, Arsenal surrendered a two-goal lead and ended up playing to a 2-2 draw. Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus put the Gunners two goals ahead before even half an hour had elapsed. Mohamed Salah halved the deficit just before the break; he would go on to miss a penalty in the second half. Fortunately for the Reds, Roberto Firmino scored an equalizing goal in the 87th minute to deal a blow to the league leaders' quest to win the Premier League for the first time in 19 years.

Had Arsenal taken all three points in this match, they would have extended their lead over Manchester City at the summit of the Premier League to eight points. It must be kept in mind that City's goal difference is superior to Arsenal's. Additional, the two clubs will play against each other on April 26. Had Arsenal beaten Liverpool, the North Londoners would have ensured that City cannot be fully in control of their pursuit of a fifth domestic league title in six seasons. However, after having split the points with the Merseysiders, Arsenal will likely head into their upcoming clash against City with "all the marbles" on the line.

For much of the season so far, Arsenal have had a commanding lead in the Premier League title race with a monumental collapse being the only way it seemed they could lose the league title. Remarkably, that collapse could now be unfolding before our eyes. With City in the midst of a red-hot run of form, they are likely the favourites to win the match against Arsenal later this month. A City victory, as mentioned, would likely put them top of the league with just six matches remaining. Should City beat Arsenal and then win out, they will win the league.

It could be the case that the pressure of ending a league title drought of almost two decades is catching up to Arsenal. In fact, prior to this season they had been bona fide league title contenders just once since 2008; this was in the 2015-16 season when they finished second behind Leicester City. This means that not even one current Arsenal player was yet at the club the last time they had a genuine chance to win the Premier League. Arsenal have not even qualified for the Champions League once since that season. Similarly, although Mikel Arteta has coached Arsenal to an FA Cup victory, that pales in comparison to the intensity of a league title race. With this fact in mind, it would therefore not be all that surprising for the Spaniard to begin to falter as the season reaches its final stretch.

Ironically, one area which has been hailed as one of Arsenal's greatest successes this season might end up being the very thing which prevents them from winning the league: their transfer window acquisitions. Although Arsenal made mutiple key signings in both the previous off-season and mid-season transfer window, they do not have and did not sign a player who can single-handedly put the rest of the team of his back and will Arsenal to victory. City have two players at that level in Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland. While it is possible to win the Premier League without such a player, the lack of said player also makes it much more likely that a title bid might fizzle out when it matters most.

Arsenal's final run-in is much more difficult than City's. Following their match against City, Arsenal will host Chelsea in a London derby; despite Chelsea's struggles this season, derby matches are always a toss-up. This derby is followed by an away match against third-placed Newcastle United - dropping points there would not be completely unexpected.

Arsenal have not had a title opportunity like this for many years; it isn't inconceivable that it could be just as long before another comes back. Yes, it's true that this match against Liverpool is just one match out of 38 and just two points dropped. But when all is said and done, we could just end up looking at this match as emblematic of what seemed like a certain Premier League title being thrown away.

The Weekly Take, Issue 251: One Goal Ahead Even Before Kickoff

As a Borussia Dortmund fan since 2010, this was the post I really did not want to make. Yet, it is the only thing that comes to mind after the latest edition of Der Klassiker - one in which the stakes between Dortmund and arch-rivals Bayern Munich were higher than they had been in years. First place in the league was on the line. For Dortmund, it was an opportunity to take an enormous step towards breaking Bayern's decade-long stranglehold on the Bundesliga title and win it for the first time since 2012.

However, things did not play out that way. In Thomas Tuchel's debut in the Bayern dugout almost six years after leaving the same role at Dortmund, Bayern emerged victorious by a 4-2 scoreline. The match was actually much more one-sided than the scoreline implied. A shocking own goal by Dortmund goalkeeper Gregor Kobel got Bayern off the mark; within the subsequent 10 minutes, Thomas Müller scored twice to all but clinch victory for Die Roten. Kingsley Coman added a fourth after the break before two late Dortmund goals scored by Emre Can and Donyell Malen merely served to reduce the final margin of victory.

Bayern's victory saw them retake first place in the Bundesliga. If recent history is to serve as any precedent, the Bavarian club will not relinquish this lead and go on to win the league for a record-extending 11th consecutive season. This comes in spite of the fact that this season has clearly been a "down year" for Bayern. Both domestically and in Europe, Bayern have not even been close to the level at which they are capable of performing. They were notably less than convincing even while beating Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 fixture. Additionally, Bayern's recent loss to Bayer Leverkusen saw them relinquish first place in the league to a resurgent Dortmund who had been on a tear since returning from their mid-season tour of Southeast Asia.

That being said, there is quite simply a different energy when Bayern take to the field - especially in the Bundesliga. Such is the mental hold that Bayern have over every other team in Germany that even before the match starts, it's as though they already lead by a goal. They have dominated the Bundesliga for so long that at this point, even teams who are on paper capable of challenging them end up faltering when the pressure is at its highest.

One of the clearest examples of the effects of Bayern's "aura" was demonstrated in the 2018-19 season. An early-season slump that saw Bayern pick up just eight points over an eight-match span in the league put Bayern in fifth place after 12 matchdays, forcing them to play catch-up. While this was happening, Dortmund were putting together an impressive winning streak and soon built up a sizeable lead at the top of the league.

However, as the season progressed and Bayern started to come back to form, Dortmund began to falter. As soon as they began to hear Bayern's footsteps behind them, Dortmund started to drop point after point. This culminated in a crushing 5-0 loss in Der Klassiker on matchday 28, which ended up making all the difference - Bayern would go on to win the league by two points.

Some might say that at this point, the Bundesliga is too far gone - indeed, Bayern's utter dominance is one reason why the pejorative term "farmer's league" has often been hurled at Germany's top flight despite being one of Europe's four major domestic football leagues. While I wouldn't go so far as to say "it can never be done", it has become painfully obvious that it will take something truly special beyond measure if any team is to deny Bayern a Bundesliga title in the near future.

It has sometimes been said that sports outcomes are often determined mentally as much as physically. In the case of Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, however, it appears to be even more than that. Though their lead at the top of the league is now just two points with eight matchdays remaining, it feels like so much more than that - and past results give credence to that feeling.

The Weekly Take, Issue 250: A Look Behind the Scenes

With this being Issue 250, I figured that for this one, I'd change it up a little as I usually do for "milestone" issues. This time around, I've decided to pull the curtain back and introduce you to some of the most important tools I use to craft my posts.

The first resource that gets a shout-out from me is Whoscored.com. Whoscored.com has just about everything. Even when I'm not making a blog post, I'll still go to Whoscored to get a rough idea of how each player fared in the matches I did not watch but in which I was nonetheless interested. Its player rating system is probably the most exact on the Internet, going all the way to two decimal places.

Beyond its in-depth player ratings, Whoscored provides detailed statistics on virtually every aspect of a football match. Everything from number of aerial duels won to player and team heatmaps to the trajectory of every shot taken and so much more - it's all there. On top of that, Whoscored even provides information on minor football leagues which almost no one outside their respective countries of origin follows closely.

I almost always take a large about of the quantifiable information in each of my posts from Whoscored because of how comprehensive and complete the website is. Even for someone like myself who already possesses a wealth of football knowledge, I can easily find myself going deep into the rabbit hole once I click on the home page. Although I would recommend Whoscored to just about every football fan, this is especially the case for "casual" fans intent on diving deeper into the favourite teams and players but not quite sure about where to begin.

Every transfer window invariably sees a flurry of activity as well as countless rumours to go with it. This being the case, many fans might not always be sure if a certain player is being overvalued or undervalued - especially if they have never watched that player before. This is where Transfermarkt.com comes in. Transfermarkt.com provides the most reliable estimates of what a player's transfer fee should be based on a combination of several metrics. All transfer fees are standardized because their values are given in euros regardless of the player's nationality or location of the player's club.

Transfermarkt also tracks any player's estimated transfer value over a given timespan. Thus, it serves as one of the ways to determine if a specific player has lived up to his transfer fee or fallen short. Players can also be sorted by position - a highly welcome feature since generally speaking, a player's transfer fee tends to increase the further forward he plays. As is the case with Whoscored, almost all leagues around the world and their players are tracked.

For other information, I usually shun big-name publications and newspapers. The clubs' own websites, sites such as SB Nation, and even Reddit have given me much material with which I can work. Additionally, many of the well-known newspapers and their analysts have been known to be biased for or against certain players and teams. While I won't provide any specific examples here, I'm sure we can all think of more than a few. Conversely, the sources I listed as those which I often visit as I write my posts tend to be much more objective.

Last but certainly not least, I'd like to give a shout-out to the YouTube channel Tifo Football. The videos on this channel cover just about every facet and nuance of today's football sphere. Content is delivered in a highly digestible yet informative manner, and even topics which are only tangentially related to football are covered. Tifo Football releases many tactical analysis videos which I often watch to add depth to my posts, particularly where strategic elements of football are concerned.

Tifo Football isn't just a useful tool for blog posts - anyone with even a passing interest in football should check out the channel. The sheer scope of topics within the football universe that it covers is remarkable. No matter which team you might support, you will come across at least one (and probably more than that) video which will be right up your alley.

The Weekly Take, Issue 249: Another Champions League Title Incoming?

It's certainly rare that the football club which wears the crown of "best team in the world" at any given point is one which in that same season was knocked out of the Europa League in the round of 24. However, in what is shaping up to be one of the strangest European club football seasons in recent memory (the pandemic-interrupted 2019-20 season notwithstanding), this is arguably the case right now.

The latest iteration of El Clásico saw Barcelona emerge with a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid. Real took an early lead by way of an own goal scored by Ronald Araújo; this goal was very much against the run of play. As was to be expected, the Blaugrana equalized shortly before half-time when Sergi Roberto converted his follow-up chance following Raphinha's blocked shot. Franck Kessié's stoppage-time winning goal would then extend Barça's lead at the top of La Liga to 12 points.

It's difficult to understate just how domestically dominant Barça have been this season. After 26 league matches, the Catalan club have 68 points, winning all but four matches along the way. They have all but clinched the league title for the first time since 2019 and notably, the first time in the post-Lionel Messi era as well. Despite having almost been fired from his head coach position at multiple points during his somewhat tumultuous tenure, Xavi now has this team running like a well-oiled machine. Ever since enduring a difficult October, Barça have arguably been playing at their highest level since their Treble-winning campaign of 2014-15. A domestic double is now not only possible, but likely.

Like several other clubs, Barça spent plenty of money during the off-season transfer window to bring players to Camp Nou. However, unlike some of those other big-spending clubs, Barça's acquisitions have fit seamlessly into the team. Barça spent a total of €158 million during the off-season, acquiring players such as Raphinha, Jules Koundé, Andreas Christensen, and most notably of all, legendary centre-forward Robert Lewandowski. In addition, in a case of "addition by subtraction", they off-loaded Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to Chelsea. It soon became evident that while Aubameyang had been at Barça, the club had managed to squeeze the last drops of high-level play out of him; he is now well and truly past it.

Barça have always taken tremendous pride in La Masia, the club's iconic, world-renowned youth academy. The influence of La Masia can be seen throughout this team, in particular through 18-year-old midfield phenom Gavi. The Andalusian already looks like a seasoned veteran and has even drawn comparisons to legendary Barça midfield duo Xavi and Andrés Iniesta. While such comparisons may very well be premature, such is the hype that Gavi has already generated. Of course, La Masia's impact goes beyond Gavi alone. Gavi's fellow La Masia alumni Eric García, Sergi Roberto, Ansu Fati, and club icons Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba have all made significant contributions this season. The presence of such a foundation gives the team a level of continuity and internal structure seldom seen in other elite clubs.

I don't think it would be a stretch to say that at this point, Barça might be the favourites to win next season's Champions League. What's more, given their success this season, they have even put themselves in position to land a marquee signing during the next off-season. Should Barça add such a player to their roster, they will be very difficult to stop as they pursue a sixth Champions League title. In fact, had they not been stunningly knocked out of this season's Champions League in the group stage, Barça would've been among the prime contenders to win it all and finish the season with a Treble for the third time in the club's history.

Perhaps the greatest irony in all of this is the following: when Messi left Barça in 2021, many viewed it as an opportunity for him to add another Champions League triumph at the expense of a club on the decline. Almost two years later, the script has been almost completely flipped. At Paris Saint-Germain, Messi seems further away from a Champions League title than ever before. Barça, on the other hand, could be making room in their trophy cabinet for another one - the one with the huge handles.

The Weekly Take, Issue 248: Just PSG Things

At this point, is anyone even surprised anymore?

For the fifth time in the last seven seasons, Paris Saint-Germain were knocked out of the Champions League in the round of 16 - a statistics which looks much worse when considering the colossal amount of money which the club's Qatari owners have spent to bring the biggest prize in European club football to the French capital for the first time. In their second-leg match against Bayern Munich, PSG offered little resistance as they slumped to a 2-0 loss, going out of the competition by an aggregate scoreline of 3-0.

As has become the norm, PSG floundered when the lights were brightest and the pressure was highest. This is the weakest Bayern team in years - one which is at risk of relinquishing the club's decade-long stranglehold over the Bundesliga title. In addition, Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé are not far removed from iconic, all-time great individual World Cup runs. There may arguably have never been a better opportunity for PSG to claim a signature victory, knock out one of the pre-tournament favourites, and take an enormous step towards the Champions League title.

This latest PSG disasterclass is unique for one notable reason: it took place despite the absence of Neymar. Notice that I said "absence", not "presence"; again and again, the Brazilian striker has failed to show up when his team has most needed him. Additionally, both his club and country clearly play better without him than with him in spite of his immense talent. Nevertheless, even in this scenario, PSG once again capitulated.

Messi, Mbappé, and Achraf Hakimi looked nothing like the players who turned in many dominant performances for their respective countries in Qatar. Along with their teammates, they were utterly stymied by a Bayern team with which they should have at least been able to keep pace.

PSG's complete lack of fighting spirit against the Bavarian club was obvious. At no point over both legs of this fixture did PSG even so much as appear to put up any resistance whatsoever. The substitutions they made only reinforced this point - they brought on unproven youngsters instead of more established players, essentially conceding defeat by doing so.

It's painfully obvious at this point - PSG has been thoroughly "infected" by a losers' mentality. Despite all their big-name players and the eye-popping financial resources available to them, they themselves obviously do not believe that they can actually win it all. The club itself fears the big moments - they fully expect to come up short when in the limelight. Barcelona 2017, Manchester United 2018, Real Madrid 2019 - and many, many more. It almost seems as if the moment any player steps onto the field in a PSG jersey for a crucial match, that player's performance level immediately plummets.

Never has a club squandered so many opportunities to win the Champions League over such a comparatively short timeframe. This is a team that should have been bona fide contenders for the Champions League title every season for the past decade or so. However, ever since their acquisition by Qatar Sports Investments in 2011, PSG have only advanced beyond the tournament's quarterfinals twice. To make matters even worse, one of those two deep runs was the 2019-20 season when the tournament, like everything else in the world, was disrupted and subsequently restructured owing to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic; that season would inherently have been an outlier no matter the eventual results.

The problems at PSG clearly go far beyond the players, coaching staff, or even ownership and the front office. This club has seemingly accepted the fate of being European club football's perennial underachievers. This not only affects PSG's current squad - every player who they will go on to sign will, for the foreseeable future, be "poisoned" by the mentality that pervades the club.

After the match against Bayern, Mbappé said in an interview that PSG have peaked - that there is no further level they can attain. When a player who is a legitimate Ballon d'Or contender goes from taking apart the world's best to making such an admission after yet another lifeless Champions League performance in such a short timeframe, it really speaks volumes.

We will almost certainly be back next year with the same story but in different words.

The Weekly Take, Issue 247: The Final Blow to Their Title Hopes?

This season's Bundesliga title race has been one for the ages. As many as six teams have at some point found themselves with a realistic chance to finish the season as champions of Germany. During this matchday, two of those teams faced off with Borussia Dortmund hosting RB Leipzig. Dortmund emerged with a 2-1 victory; it was their eighth consecutive league victory and provisionally took them to the top of the league pending Bayern Munich's later away match against VfB Stuttgart.

Dortmund opened the scoring around the midway point of the first half through a Marco Reus penalty. They would go on to enter the break with a 2-0 lead after Emre Can increased their lead in the 39th minute. In the second half, Leipzig would reduce the deficit with Emil Forsberg getting Die Bullen on the board, but they would not be able to score an equalizer after that.

Leipzig's loss might very well have ended any hope they may have had to win this season's Bundesliga. With just 11 matches left to be played, Leipzig are now seven points off the lead. While that might not necessarily sound like an excessive margin, so tight and hard-fought has the 2022-23 Bundesliga been that this gap could realistically be too much for the Saxony-based club to overcome.

At this point, the question is now "what could Leipzig have done differently this season?" One key area where Leipzig could certainly have done better has to be the off-season transfer window. David Raum and Timo Werner have not lived up to their transfer fees, while Abdou Diallo, a loan acquisition from Paris Saint-Germain, has been ravaged by injury all season long. Ironically, Senegalese centre-back Diallo was brought in as cover for the equally injury-prone Lukas Klostermann.

To make matters even worse, Leipzig sold or loaned out many players who would have likely been of great assistance in this final title run-in. The most notable of these has to be Ademola Lookman, who left the club for the astonishingly paltry fee of €9 million. The Nigerian striker is in the midst of a breakout season, having already notched 12 league goals in 23 Serie A matches. In one season, Lookman has almost matched his prior career tally of 16 goals in major European league play. Compounding this was the fact that Leipzig also lost a slew of capable players including Angeliño, Alexander Sørloth, Brian Brobbey, and Tyler Adams. In return for their many departures, Leipzig received a total of just over €74 million - well below the total value these players should have collectively fetched.

Of course, league titles are never solely won or lost in the boardroom. It can't be denied that several key Leipzig players simply have not lived up to expectations. Perhaps the most notable culprit is centre-back Joško Gvardiol. After an excellent World Cup in which he became one of the tournament's breakout stars, the Croatian has not yet adjusted to his newly heightened expectations. This, of course, does not discount the fact that World Cup fatigue could be taking its toll on him - but it's now been several months. For how much longer can we realistically give him a pass for that?

Adding to this point, players such as Raum, Mohamed Simakan, Marcel Halstenberg, and Kevin Kampl have all seen obvious declines when compared to their performances of last season. What makes this even more worrying is the fact that Raum, Simakan, and Halstenberg accompany Gvardiol in the backline. The numbers bear this fact out: after 23 league matches, Leipzig have conceded 29 goals, tying them for fourth-fewest with VfL Wolfsburg. Last season, however, Leipzig tied league champions Bayern for fewest goals conceded with 37.

Other matters which made things more difficult for Leipzig were the early-season firing of then-head coach Domenico Tedesco as well as the death of controversial club owner Dietrich Mateschitz. Though Leipzig's setup and methods of operation have always been a divisive topic across German football, the club had always been relatively stable internally - until now. Ever since entering the Bundesliga in 2016, this might be the furthest off the rails they have gone. Although by many metrics this has not been a bad season for Leipzig by any means, such is the nature of the Bundesliga this season that even just a few errors could torpedo a team's potential title bid - RB Leipzig might just have experienced this first-hand.