Monday, April 10, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 252: The Beginning of a Title Challenge Unraveling?

When the story of the 2022-23 Premier League season is fully told, this most recent matchday might very well end up serving as the turning point of the entire narrative.

In an away match against Liverpool, Arsenal surrendered a two-goal lead and ended up playing to a 2-2 draw. Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus put the Gunners two goals ahead before even half an hour had elapsed. Mohamed Salah halved the deficit just before the break; he would go on to miss a penalty in the second half. Fortunately for the Reds, Roberto Firmino scored an equalizing goal in the 87th minute to deal a blow to the league leaders' quest to win the Premier League for the first time in 19 years.

Had Arsenal taken all three points in this match, they would have extended their lead over Manchester City at the summit of the Premier League to eight points. It must be kept in mind that City's goal difference is superior to Arsenal's. Additional, the two clubs will play against each other on April 26. Had Arsenal beaten Liverpool, the North Londoners would have ensured that City cannot be fully in control of their pursuit of a fifth domestic league title in six seasons. However, after having split the points with the Merseysiders, Arsenal will likely head into their upcoming clash against City with "all the marbles" on the line.

For much of the season so far, Arsenal have had a commanding lead in the Premier League title race with a monumental collapse being the only way it seemed they could lose the league title. Remarkably, that collapse could now be unfolding before our eyes. With City in the midst of a red-hot run of form, they are likely the favourites to win the match against Arsenal later this month. A City victory, as mentioned, would likely put them top of the league with just six matches remaining. Should City beat Arsenal and then win out, they will win the league.

It could be the case that the pressure of ending a league title drought of almost two decades is catching up to Arsenal. In fact, prior to this season they had been bona fide league title contenders just once since 2008; this was in the 2015-16 season when they finished second behind Leicester City. This means that not even one current Arsenal player was yet at the club the last time they had a genuine chance to win the Premier League. Arsenal have not even qualified for the Champions League once since that season. Similarly, although Mikel Arteta has coached Arsenal to an FA Cup victory, that pales in comparison to the intensity of a league title race. With this fact in mind, it would therefore not be all that surprising for the Spaniard to begin to falter as the season reaches its final stretch.

Ironically, one area which has been hailed as one of Arsenal's greatest successes this season might end up being the very thing which prevents them from winning the league: their transfer window acquisitions. Although Arsenal made mutiple key signings in both the previous off-season and mid-season transfer window, they do not have and did not sign a player who can single-handedly put the rest of the team of his back and will Arsenal to victory. City have two players at that level in Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland. While it is possible to win the Premier League without such a player, the lack of said player also makes it much more likely that a title bid might fizzle out when it matters most.

Arsenal's final run-in is much more difficult than City's. Following their match against City, Arsenal will host Chelsea in a London derby; despite Chelsea's struggles this season, derby matches are always a toss-up. This derby is followed by an away match against third-placed Newcastle United - dropping points there would not be completely unexpected.

Arsenal have not had a title opportunity like this for many years; it isn't inconceivable that it could be just as long before another comes back. Yes, it's true that this match against Liverpool is just one match out of 38 and just two points dropped. But when all is said and done, we could just end up looking at this match as emblematic of what seemed like a certain Premier League title being thrown away.

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