Saturday, April 1, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 251: One Goal Ahead Even Before Kickoff

As a Borussia Dortmund fan since 2010, this was the post I really did not want to make. Yet, it is the only thing that comes to mind after the latest edition of Der Klassiker - one in which the stakes between Dortmund and arch-rivals Bayern Munich were higher than they had been in years. First place in the league was on the line. For Dortmund, it was an opportunity to take an enormous step towards breaking Bayern's decade-long stranglehold on the Bundesliga title and win it for the first time since 2012.

However, things did not play out that way. In Thomas Tuchel's debut in the Bayern dugout almost six years after leaving the same role at Dortmund, Bayern emerged victorious by a 4-2 scoreline. The match was actually much more one-sided than the scoreline implied. A shocking own goal by Dortmund goalkeeper Gregor Kobel got Bayern off the mark; within the subsequent 10 minutes, Thomas Müller scored twice to all but clinch victory for Die Roten. Kingsley Coman added a fourth after the break before two late Dortmund goals scored by Emre Can and Donyell Malen merely served to reduce the final margin of victory.

Bayern's victory saw them retake first place in the Bundesliga. If recent history is to serve as any precedent, the Bavarian club will not relinquish this lead and go on to win the league for a record-extending 11th consecutive season. This comes in spite of the fact that this season has clearly been a "down year" for Bayern. Both domestically and in Europe, Bayern have not even been close to the level at which they are capable of performing. They were notably less than convincing even while beating Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 fixture. Additionally, Bayern's recent loss to Bayer Leverkusen saw them relinquish first place in the league to a resurgent Dortmund who had been on a tear since returning from their mid-season tour of Southeast Asia.

That being said, there is quite simply a different energy when Bayern take to the field - especially in the Bundesliga. Such is the mental hold that Bayern have over every other team in Germany that even before the match starts, it's as though they already lead by a goal. They have dominated the Bundesliga for so long that at this point, even teams who are on paper capable of challenging them end up faltering when the pressure is at its highest.

One of the clearest examples of the effects of Bayern's "aura" was demonstrated in the 2018-19 season. An early-season slump that saw Bayern pick up just eight points over an eight-match span in the league put Bayern in fifth place after 12 matchdays, forcing them to play catch-up. While this was happening, Dortmund were putting together an impressive winning streak and soon built up a sizeable lead at the top of the league.

However, as the season progressed and Bayern started to come back to form, Dortmund began to falter. As soon as they began to hear Bayern's footsteps behind them, Dortmund started to drop point after point. This culminated in a crushing 5-0 loss in Der Klassiker on matchday 28, which ended up making all the difference - Bayern would go on to win the league by two points.

Some might say that at this point, the Bundesliga is too far gone - indeed, Bayern's utter dominance is one reason why the pejorative term "farmer's league" has often been hurled at Germany's top flight despite being one of Europe's four major domestic football leagues. While I wouldn't go so far as to say "it can never be done", it has become painfully obvious that it will take something truly special beyond measure if any team is to deny Bayern a Bundesliga title in the near future.

It has sometimes been said that sports outcomes are often determined mentally as much as physically. In the case of Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, however, it appears to be even more than that. Though their lead at the top of the league is now just two points with eight matchdays remaining, it feels like so much more than that - and past results give credence to that feeling.

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