The Weekly Take, Issue 249: Another Champions League Title Incoming?

It's certainly rare that the football club which wears the crown of "best team in the world" at any given point is one which in that same season was knocked out of the Europa League in the round of 24. However, in what is shaping up to be one of the strangest European club football seasons in recent memory (the pandemic-interrupted 2019-20 season notwithstanding), this is arguably the case right now.

The latest iteration of El Clásico saw Barcelona emerge with a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid. Real took an early lead by way of an own goal scored by Ronald Araújo; this goal was very much against the run of play. As was to be expected, the Blaugrana equalized shortly before half-time when Sergi Roberto converted his follow-up chance following Raphinha's blocked shot. Franck Kessié's stoppage-time winning goal would then extend Barça's lead at the top of La Liga to 12 points.

It's difficult to understate just how domestically dominant Barça have been this season. After 26 league matches, the Catalan club have 68 points, winning all but four matches along the way. They have all but clinched the league title for the first time since 2019 and notably, the first time in the post-Lionel Messi era as well. Despite having almost been fired from his head coach position at multiple points during his somewhat tumultuous tenure, Xavi now has this team running like a well-oiled machine. Ever since enduring a difficult October, Barça have arguably been playing at their highest level since their Treble-winning campaign of 2014-15. A domestic double is now not only possible, but likely.

Like several other clubs, Barça spent plenty of money during the off-season transfer window to bring players to Camp Nou. However, unlike some of those other big-spending clubs, Barça's acquisitions have fit seamlessly into the team. Barça spent a total of €158 million during the off-season, acquiring players such as Raphinha, Jules Koundé, Andreas Christensen, and most notably of all, legendary centre-forward Robert Lewandowski. In addition, in a case of "addition by subtraction", they off-loaded Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to Chelsea. It soon became evident that while Aubameyang had been at Barça, the club had managed to squeeze the last drops of high-level play out of him; he is now well and truly past it.

Barça have always taken tremendous pride in La Masia, the club's iconic, world-renowned youth academy. The influence of La Masia can be seen throughout this team, in particular through 18-year-old midfield phenom Gavi. The Andalusian already looks like a seasoned veteran and has even drawn comparisons to legendary Barça midfield duo Xavi and Andrés Iniesta. While such comparisons may very well be premature, such is the hype that Gavi has already generated. Of course, La Masia's impact goes beyond Gavi alone. Gavi's fellow La Masia alumni Eric García, Sergi Roberto, Ansu Fati, and club icons Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba have all made significant contributions this season. The presence of such a foundation gives the team a level of continuity and internal structure seldom seen in other elite clubs.

I don't think it would be a stretch to say that at this point, Barça might be the favourites to win next season's Champions League. What's more, given their success this season, they have even put themselves in position to land a marquee signing during the next off-season. Should Barça add such a player to their roster, they will be very difficult to stop as they pursue a sixth Champions League title. In fact, had they not been stunningly knocked out of this season's Champions League in the group stage, Barça would've been among the prime contenders to win it all and finish the season with a Treble for the third time in the club's history.

Perhaps the greatest irony in all of this is the following: when Messi left Barça in 2021, many viewed it as an opportunity for him to add another Champions League triumph at the expense of a club on the decline. Almost two years later, the script has been almost completely flipped. At Paris Saint-Germain, Messi seems further away from a Champions League title than ever before. Barça, on the other hand, could be making room in their trophy cabinet for another one - the one with the huge handles.

The Weekly Take, Issue 248: Just PSG Things

At this point, is anyone even surprised anymore?

For the fifth time in the last seven seasons, Paris Saint-Germain were knocked out of the Champions League in the round of 16 - a statistics which looks much worse when considering the colossal amount of money which the club's Qatari owners have spent to bring the biggest prize in European club football to the French capital for the first time. In their second-leg match against Bayern Munich, PSG offered little resistance as they slumped to a 2-0 loss, going out of the competition by an aggregate scoreline of 3-0.

As has become the norm, PSG floundered when the lights were brightest and the pressure was highest. This is the weakest Bayern team in years - one which is at risk of relinquishing the club's decade-long stranglehold over the Bundesliga title. In addition, Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé are not far removed from iconic, all-time great individual World Cup runs. There may arguably have never been a better opportunity for PSG to claim a signature victory, knock out one of the pre-tournament favourites, and take an enormous step towards the Champions League title.

This latest PSG disasterclass is unique for one notable reason: it took place despite the absence of Neymar. Notice that I said "absence", not "presence"; again and again, the Brazilian striker has failed to show up when his team has most needed him. Additionally, both his club and country clearly play better without him than with him in spite of his immense talent. Nevertheless, even in this scenario, PSG once again capitulated.

Messi, Mbappé, and Achraf Hakimi looked nothing like the players who turned in many dominant performances for their respective countries in Qatar. Along with their teammates, they were utterly stymied by a Bayern team with which they should have at least been able to keep pace.

PSG's complete lack of fighting spirit against the Bavarian club was obvious. At no point over both legs of this fixture did PSG even so much as appear to put up any resistance whatsoever. The substitutions they made only reinforced this point - they brought on unproven youngsters instead of more established players, essentially conceding defeat by doing so.

It's painfully obvious at this point - PSG has been thoroughly "infected" by a losers' mentality. Despite all their big-name players and the eye-popping financial resources available to them, they themselves obviously do not believe that they can actually win it all. The club itself fears the big moments - they fully expect to come up short when in the limelight. Barcelona 2017, Manchester United 2018, Real Madrid 2019 - and many, many more. It almost seems as if the moment any player steps onto the field in a PSG jersey for a crucial match, that player's performance level immediately plummets.

Never has a club squandered so many opportunities to win the Champions League over such a comparatively short timeframe. This is a team that should have been bona fide contenders for the Champions League title every season for the past decade or so. However, ever since their acquisition by Qatar Sports Investments in 2011, PSG have only advanced beyond the tournament's quarterfinals twice. To make matters even worse, one of those two deep runs was the 2019-20 season when the tournament, like everything else in the world, was disrupted and subsequently restructured owing to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic; that season would inherently have been an outlier no matter the eventual results.

The problems at PSG clearly go far beyond the players, coaching staff, or even ownership and the front office. This club has seemingly accepted the fate of being European club football's perennial underachievers. This not only affects PSG's current squad - every player who they will go on to sign will, for the foreseeable future, be "poisoned" by the mentality that pervades the club.

After the match against Bayern, Mbappé said in an interview that PSG have peaked - that there is no further level they can attain. When a player who is a legitimate Ballon d'Or contender goes from taking apart the world's best to making such an admission after yet another lifeless Champions League performance in such a short timeframe, it really speaks volumes.

We will almost certainly be back next year with the same story but in different words.

The Weekly Take, Issue 247: The Final Blow to Their Title Hopes?

This season's Bundesliga title race has been one for the ages. As many as six teams have at some point found themselves with a realistic chance to finish the season as champions of Germany. During this matchday, two of those teams faced off with Borussia Dortmund hosting RB Leipzig. Dortmund emerged with a 2-1 victory; it was their eighth consecutive league victory and provisionally took them to the top of the league pending Bayern Munich's later away match against VfB Stuttgart.

Dortmund opened the scoring around the midway point of the first half through a Marco Reus penalty. They would go on to enter the break with a 2-0 lead after Emre Can increased their lead in the 39th minute. In the second half, Leipzig would reduce the deficit with Emil Forsberg getting Die Bullen on the board, but they would not be able to score an equalizer after that.

Leipzig's loss might very well have ended any hope they may have had to win this season's Bundesliga. With just 11 matches left to be played, Leipzig are now seven points off the lead. While that might not necessarily sound like an excessive margin, so tight and hard-fought has the 2022-23 Bundesliga been that this gap could realistically be too much for the Saxony-based club to overcome.

At this point, the question is now "what could Leipzig have done differently this season?" One key area where Leipzig could certainly have done better has to be the off-season transfer window. David Raum and Timo Werner have not lived up to their transfer fees, while Abdou Diallo, a loan acquisition from Paris Saint-Germain, has been ravaged by injury all season long. Ironically, Senegalese centre-back Diallo was brought in as cover for the equally injury-prone Lukas Klostermann.

To make matters even worse, Leipzig sold or loaned out many players who would have likely been of great assistance in this final title run-in. The most notable of these has to be Ademola Lookman, who left the club for the astonishingly paltry fee of €9 million. The Nigerian striker is in the midst of a breakout season, having already notched 12 league goals in 23 Serie A matches. In one season, Lookman has almost matched his prior career tally of 16 goals in major European league play. Compounding this was the fact that Leipzig also lost a slew of capable players including Angeliño, Alexander Sørloth, Brian Brobbey, and Tyler Adams. In return for their many departures, Leipzig received a total of just over €74 million - well below the total value these players should have collectively fetched.

Of course, league titles are never solely won or lost in the boardroom. It can't be denied that several key Leipzig players simply have not lived up to expectations. Perhaps the most notable culprit is centre-back Joško Gvardiol. After an excellent World Cup in which he became one of the tournament's breakout stars, the Croatian has not yet adjusted to his newly heightened expectations. This, of course, does not discount the fact that World Cup fatigue could be taking its toll on him - but it's now been several months. For how much longer can we realistically give him a pass for that?

Adding to this point, players such as Raum, Mohamed Simakan, Marcel Halstenberg, and Kevin Kampl have all seen obvious declines when compared to their performances of last season. What makes this even more worrying is the fact that Raum, Simakan, and Halstenberg accompany Gvardiol in the backline. The numbers bear this fact out: after 23 league matches, Leipzig have conceded 29 goals, tying them for fourth-fewest with VfL Wolfsburg. Last season, however, Leipzig tied league champions Bayern for fewest goals conceded with 37.

Other matters which made things more difficult for Leipzig were the early-season firing of then-head coach Domenico Tedesco as well as the death of controversial club owner Dietrich Mateschitz. Though Leipzig's setup and methods of operation have always been a divisive topic across German football, the club had always been relatively stable internally - until now. Ever since entering the Bundesliga in 2016, this might be the furthest off the rails they have gone. Although by many metrics this has not been a bad season for Leipzig by any means, such is the nature of the Bundesliga this season that even just a few errors could torpedo a team's potential title bid - RB Leipzig might just have experienced this first-hand.

The Weekly Take, Issue 246: All Their Eggs in One Basket

The standout fixture of the most recent La Liga matchday was obviously the Madrid derby. It finished in a 1-1 draw - a result which was of no benefit to either Real Madrid or Atlético Madrid. Atlético scored first despite having been reduced to 10 men in the 64th minute following Ángel Correa's controversial red card. A quarter-hour after the incident, Uruguayan centre-back José María Giménez scored with a header to put Atlético on course to claim all three points. However, six minutes later, Giménez's compatriot Álvaro Rodríguez, playing in just the second La Liga match of his career, scored Los Merengues' equalizer.

The fact that both Madrid clubs split the result meant that Atlético missed an opportunity to move into third place in the league and boost their chances of a top-four finish and the Champions League berth that accompanies it. As for Real, the result all but ensures that they will not defend their league title. They now trail league leaders Barcelona by seven points despite having played an additional match.

After having won 10 and drawn one of their first 11 league matches, Real's domestic form has been inconsistent since. Over their 12 La Liga matches since that point, Real have accumulated just 21 points in the league. This run of poor form has included losses against Villarreal and Mallorca as well as a draw against Girona, just to name a few notable missed opportunities.

Real have been hit hard by post-World Cup fatigue - many of their players have not even been close to peak level ever since returning from Qatar. Luka Modrić, Eduardo Camavinga, and Aurélien Tchouaméni have evidently been paying for their efforts during international football's showpiece tournament, while players who had disappointing World Cup campaigns such as Dani Carvajal, Federico Valverde, and Antonio Rüdiger continued to be out of form upon their returns to the Spanish capital. This has allowed Barça to open up a lead which at this point seems all but insurmountable.

The uncertainty around head coach Carlo Ancelotti has also added an air of instability around the club. There had been rumours that Ancelotti would have been fired had Real Madrid not won the Club World Cup as well as links between the legendary Italian coach and the now-vacant position at the helm of the Brazil national team. Although nothing has yet become of either of these rumours, they nevertheless provide the club with a distraction which cannot be afforded right now.

Real did not sign any players during the mid-season transfer window; this is beginning to look like a mistake. Of particular note is the fact that Real did not strengthen their defense. Rüdiger, Carvajal, David Alaba, and Ferland Mendy have all been well below the required standard this season. It's virtually guaranteed that at least one of these defenders will find themselves on the way out of the Santiago Bernabéu at some point in the next off-season. However, if Real were to have seriously challenged Barça for the league title, they ought to have signed a defender in January. Their failure to do so might just have finished off whatever chance they may have had to win the league.

At this point, Real's most likely avenue to win a title this season is the Champions League; in fact, Real should go all-in on it. Not only will Real almost certainly not win La Liga; it is also highly unlikely that they will win the Copa del Rey. They have been drawn against Barça in the last four. Almost throughout the entire season, Barça have clearly been superior to Real. It will be extremely difficult for Real to beat their Catalan arch-rivals over two legs. On the other hand, Real lead Liverpool 5-2 after the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 fixture. Additionally, playing in Europe's leading club tournament has always seemed to unlock a higher gear within Real. And, in a Champions League missing powerhouses like Arsenal, Manchester United, Atlético, and Union Berlin, there is every chance that Real could win the Champions League for a record-extending 15th time.

For most top teams, it isn't advisable to fixate on one tournament at the expense of all the others. However, if Real Madrid are to finish the season with a title to their name and if Ancelotti is to ensure he remains in the Bernabéu dugout, doing so might be exactly what has to be done.

The Weekly Take, Issue 245: This Season's Overlooked Dark Horse Contender

It has been 19 years since a team from outside one of Europe's major football leagues won the Champions League. In 2004, Porto stunned the world of football with an astonishing underdog run to the title. Since then, the gap between the major leagues and the rest has grown exponentially to the point at which many wondered if such a triumph will ever happen again.

However, although it is not necessarily the most likely outcome, a title for "the little guys" cannot completely be ruled out this season. The team I'm referring to is Benfica, whose 2-0 win over Club Brugge in their first-leg Champions League round of 16 match all but put them into the tournament's quarterfinals for the second season in a row. João Mário's goal from the penalty spot shortly after half-time would be followed by one from David Neres two minutes before the end of regulation time.

Given the recent history of the Champions League, it's perfectly understandable why essentially no one at all picked Benfica to go all the way. But upon closer inspection, this is a squad which, if everything falls into place, might just reveal themselves as genuine dark horse contenders to win it all.

Benfica's formidable defense has been a key, if not the key, driving force behind their success this season. The highly underrated Spanish left-back Álex Grimaldo has been perhaps their best player this season. Accompanied by veteran centre-back and captain Nicolás Otamendi, rising star António Silva, and off-season acquisition Alexander Bah, Benfica's air-tight defense has conceded a meagre 12 goals in 22 Primeira Liga matches this season.

In both the off-season and mid-season transfer windows, Benfica put on an absolute masterclass. During the off-season, the Lisbon club signed Neres for €15.3 million, Bah for €8.6 million, and most notably of all, Enzo Fernández for €10 million. What makes these signings even more impressive is the fact that none of them came from a major European league; they arrived from Shakhtar Donetsk, Slavia Prague, and River Plate respectively.

To top it off, Benfica truly understand the idea of "buy low, sell high". Last off-season, Benfica sold Everton to Flamengo for €13.5 million, Roman Yaremchuk to Brugge for €16 million, and stunningly, Darwin Núñez to Liverpool for €75 million. Not one of those players has even come close to justifying their price tags since leaving. Benfica then proceeded to top themselves in January when they sold Fernández to Chelsea for a staggering €121 million following the Argentine's impressive World Cup campaign in which he was named Best Young Player. Predictably, Fernández has struggled ever since arriving in London - a fitting microcosm of both Benfica's and Chelsea's respective seasons.

In past issues, I have mentioned that playing in a weaker domestic league can end up taking some of the "edge" off a team and inhibit their level of play in the Champions League. This, however, has evidently not been true of As Águias. Even though they have been dominating the Primeira Liga thus far with 17 wins in 20 matches and will likely reclaim the league title they last won in 2019, one could easily make the argument that they have been even more impressive on the continental front.

When Benfica were drawn into a Champions League group containing Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus, many expected Benfica to be cannon fodder for their two more established opponents. Not only did Benfica prove to be exactly the opposite; they went on to top the group and as mentioned, are now almost certainly in the quarterfinals. At this point, it would not even be that surprising if they were to reach the semifinals for the first time since 1990.

Of course, there's still a lot of football yet to be played this season - things could potentially go wrong for Benfica at any time. However, given the way they are playing and the way the club is run, it's difficult to envision such a scenario taking place. Not only that - their future seems extremely bright, especially when considering the fact that they have barely even touched the money they have received from Fernández's sale.

It's more than likely that exciting times at the Estádio da Luz await.

The Weekly Take, Issue 244: Slipping Further Behind

The standout La Liga fixture of this weekend's matchday saw Villarreal host runaway league leaders Barcelona. This was a crucial match for Villarreal - if they were to overcome the odds and emerge with a draw or even a win, it would have been a key step forward in their chase for a top-four spot and a berth in next season's UEFA Champions League.

This would turn out not to be the case. Pedri's first-half goal ensured that Villarreal would lose their third consecutive league match. The 1-0 loss against their Catalan opponents caused the Valencian club to slip to eighth place in La Liga, seven points behind fourth-placed Atlético Madrid. Villarreal's chances of qualifying for the 2023-24 Champions League now appear increasingly slim.

When this season began, the outlook regarding Villarreal had been generally positive. Having won the Europa League two seasons prior, then following it up with an impressive run to the Champions League semifinals which saw them knock pre-tournament favourites Bayern Munich out of the competition in the quarterfinals, Villarreal were seen as a team clearly on the rise and a firm contender for a top-four league finish and with it, a second Champions League berth in three seasons.

However, Villarreal's season to date has obviously not gone according to plan. That being said, Villarreal were still in contention for the top four when the moment that may have sunk their chances took place. Last October, Villarreal were in seventh place in the league and fresh off a 2-1 home win against Almería when head coach Unai Emery left his position to take the job at Premier League club Aston Villa where he would replace the recently-fired Steven Gerrard. Incidentally, Emery's move to England appears to have been one which hasn't really worked out for either party; he has struggled ever since stepping into the dugout at Villa Park.

The day after Emery's departure was confirmed, Villarreal replaced the Basque with Quique Setién. Setién accepted his first such role since his ill-fated seven-month stint in charge of Barça in 2020. In the four months since then, Setién has been underwhelming at Villarreal. Although things appeared to be starting to change for the better when Villarreal beat Real Madrid for a third consecutive league victory, Villarreal proceeded to follow it up with a five-match run in which they won just one match and accumulated a meagre four points. Additionally, two weeks after Villarreal's victory against Real, they would be eliminated from the Copa del Rey by the same opponents. It has become increasingly clear that Setién should not be Villarreal's long-term solution. He is evidently not a coach who is able to get it done at this level.

Villarreal's failure to make any moves of note in both the mid-season and off-season transfer windows must also be pointed out. None of Villarreal's acquisitions have really moved the needle; this point is especially salient when considering the fact that Villarreal sold Pervis Estupiñán to Brighton & Hove Albion for €17.8 million during the off-season but failed to make good use of this influx of money. The mid-season departure of goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli, Villarreal's best player this season, to Ajax only served to make things even more difficult - particularly since he has been replaced in goal by a geriatric Pepe Reina.

Villarreal's struggles up front have also been obvious. They have scored just 22 league goals in 21 matches this season; their leading goalscorer Gerard Moreno has just five to his name. Their drop-off from last season is remarkable, having notched 63 league goals in 2021-22. That said, although they may not have immediately seen this coming, they could certainly have brought in reinforcements up front in January. They did not and will likely go on to rue that.

It does somewhat feel as though Villarreal never truly appreciated how good their situation last season really was and thus overlooked multiple opportunities to build on this success. Instead, they have regressed by way of an ill-advised coaching change as well as several transfer blunders while multiple direct rivals have strengthened. Although Villarreal are not yet completely out of the running in the chase for a top-four finish, it's certainly a very tall order at this point.

The Weekly Take, Issue 243: A Most Welcome Psychological Boost

This season's Bundesliga title race is shaping up to be quite possibly the most competitive in history. With more than half of the season completed, six teams are still in contention to claim the league title. Two of those teams faced off during the most recent matchday when Borussia Dortmund hosted SC Freiburg.

To the surprise of just about everyone, Dortmund completely took Freiburg apart in a dominant 5-1 victory. Although five different Dortmund players scored for Die Schwarzgelben, one name among the five goalscorers understandably stood out: Sébastien Haller, who scored his first goal for the club since returning from testicular cancer. To make the moment even more poignant, this match took place on World Cancer Day.

By any measure, Dortmund had weathered a turbulent off-season before the current campaign began. In July of last year, Manchester City signed superstar centre-forward Erling Haaland from Dortmund for the astonishingly low transfer fee of €60 million. To put this figure into perspective, Haaland's true transfer value at the time was €150 million - 250% of what City actually paid to sign the Norwegian.

It wasn't long after that when Haller revealed that he had been diagnosed with testicular cancer. What made this even more of a blow for Dortmund was the fact that the club had just signed the Ivorian striker from Ajax. Thus, Dortmund's slow start to the season came as little surprise. After 10 matchdays, Dortmund were way off the pace; they were eighth in the league at the time and had accumulated just four points from their preceding five league matches. At that point, Dortmund's prospects for the rest of the season were undeniably grim.

However, ever since returning from the league's extended mid-season break, Dortmund have been just about the complete opposite of what they had been before it. Dortmund's current four-match winning streak in which they have scored 13 goals has carried them up to third place in the league, just two points behind surprise league leaders Union Berlin. Just like that, Dortmund find themselves firmly in the midst of the Bundesliga title race.

It is no coincidence that Dortmund's surge in form has come alongside Haller's return to the field. Having spent half a year fighting for his life, Haller's very presence in the matchday squad has served to inspire and galvanize the rest of the team. Even if Haller does not score another goal for the rest of the season, his return might just turn out to be the "X-factor" that propels Dortmund to a first league title since 2012.

Additionally, that scenario is almost certainly not going to happen. Once Haller is fully back into the swing of things, the goals should start coming back. It must not be forgotten that Haller is a proven marksman who is fresh off a breakout season at Ajax. What's more, his prior two-season Bundesliga stint at Eintracht Frankfurt was also fairly successful; Haller scored 15 league goals in the 2018-19 season to help keep the club in contention for a 2019-20 Champions League spot for almost the whole season until a late slump knocked them down to a seventh-place league finish.

Although Haller's return may add just one more available player to Dortmund's roster, its symbolic impact goes far beyond that. Though it may be true that occurrences such as this are "bigger than football", it is also equally true that these same occurrences can (and usually do) have an impact on the associated club's play. Considering how tight the race for the Bundesliga crown is right now, every club in it needs any and every edge which might be obtained. For Dortmund, Haller's return might be exactly that. On top of that, Haller's return will surely make Dortmund the neutrals' pick - the "sentimental favourite" due to the narrative which has now developed around them.

Should Borussia Dortmund somehow defy the odds and become champions of Germany for the first time in more than a decade, Haller's story will undoubtedly become an iconic part of Dortmund and Bundesliga lore. In a season full of twists and turns, this latest boost to Dortmund's title hopes might end up being the most decisive one of all - one so great that it may even end up overriding Haaland's bargain-bin departure last July.