Sunday, February 26, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 246: All Their Eggs in One Basket

The standout fixture of the most recent La Liga matchday was obviously the Madrid derby. It finished in a 1-1 draw - a result which was of no benefit to either Real Madrid or Atlético Madrid. Atlético scored first despite having been reduced to 10 men in the 64th minute following Ángel Correa's controversial red card. A quarter-hour after the incident, Uruguayan centre-back José María Giménez scored with a header to put Atlético on course to claim all three points. However, six minutes later, Giménez's compatriot Álvaro Rodríguez, playing in just the second La Liga match of his career, scored Los Merengues' equalizer.

The fact that both Madrid clubs split the result meant that Atlético missed an opportunity to move into third place in the league and boost their chances of a top-four finish and the Champions League berth that accompanies it. As for Real, the result all but ensures that they will not defend their league title. They now trail league leaders Barcelona by seven points despite having played an additional match.

After having won 10 and drawn one of their first 11 league matches, Real's domestic form has been inconsistent since. Over their 12 La Liga matches since that point, Real have accumulated just 21 points in the league. This run of poor form has included losses against Villarreal and Mallorca as well as a draw against Girona, just to name a few notable missed opportunities.

Real have been hit hard by post-World Cup fatigue - many of their players have not even been close to peak level ever since returning from Qatar. Luka Modrić, Eduardo Camavinga, and Aurélien Tchouaméni have evidently been paying for their efforts during international football's showpiece tournament, while players who had disappointing World Cup campaigns such as Dani Carvajal, Federico Valverde, and Antonio Rüdiger continued to be out of form upon their returns to the Spanish capital. This has allowed Barça to open up a lead which at this point seems all but insurmountable.

The uncertainty around head coach Carlo Ancelotti has also added an air of instability around the club. There had been rumours that Ancelotti would have been fired had Real Madrid not won the Club World Cup as well as links between the legendary Italian coach and the now-vacant position at the helm of the Brazil national team. Although nothing has yet become of either of these rumours, they nevertheless provide the club with a distraction which cannot be afforded right now.

Real did not sign any players during the mid-season transfer window; this is beginning to look like a mistake. Of particular note is the fact that Real did not strengthen their defense. Rüdiger, Carvajal, David Alaba, and Ferland Mendy have all been well below the required standard this season. It's virtually guaranteed that at least one of these defenders will find themselves on the way out of the Santiago Bernabéu at some point in the next off-season. However, if Real were to have seriously challenged Barça for the league title, they ought to have signed a defender in January. Their failure to do so might just have finished off whatever chance they may have had to win the league.

At this point, Real's most likely avenue to win a title this season is the Champions League; in fact, Real should go all-in on it. Not only will Real almost certainly not win La Liga; it is also highly unlikely that they will win the Copa del Rey. They have been drawn against Barça in the last four. Almost throughout the entire season, Barça have clearly been superior to Real. It will be extremely difficult for Real to beat their Catalan arch-rivals over two legs. On the other hand, Real lead Liverpool 5-2 after the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 fixture. Additionally, playing in Europe's leading club tournament has always seemed to unlock a higher gear within Real. And, in a Champions League missing powerhouses like Arsenal, Manchester United, Atlético, and Union Berlin, there is every chance that Real could win the Champions League for a record-extending 15th time.

For most top teams, it isn't advisable to fixate on one tournament at the expense of all the others. However, if Real Madrid are to finish the season with a title to their name and if Ancelotti is to ensure he remains in the Bernabéu dugout, doing so might be exactly what has to be done.

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