Wednesday, February 15, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 245: This Season's Overlooked Dark Horse Contender

It has been 19 years since a team from outside one of Europe's major football leagues won the Champions League. In 2004, Porto stunned the world of football with an astonishing underdog run to the title. Since then, the gap between the major leagues and the rest has grown exponentially to the point at which many wondered if such a triumph will ever happen again.

However, although it is not necessarily the most likely outcome, a title for "the little guys" cannot completely be ruled out this season. The team I'm referring to is Benfica, whose 2-0 win over Club Brugge in their first-leg Champions League round of 16 match all but put them into the tournament's quarterfinals for the second season in a row. João Mário's goal from the penalty spot shortly after half-time would be followed by one from David Neres two minutes before the end of regulation time.

Given the recent history of the Champions League, it's perfectly understandable why essentially no one at all picked Benfica to go all the way. But upon closer inspection, this is a squad which, if everything falls into place, might just reveal themselves as genuine dark horse contenders to win it all.

Benfica's formidable defense has been a key, if not the key, driving force behind their success this season. The highly underrated Spanish left-back Álex Grimaldo has been perhaps their best player this season. Accompanied by veteran centre-back and captain Nicolás Otamendi, rising star António Silva, and off-season acquisition Alexander Bah, Benfica's air-tight defense has conceded a meagre 12 goals in 22 Primeira Liga matches this season.

In both the off-season and mid-season transfer windows, Benfica put on an absolute masterclass. During the off-season, the Lisbon club signed Neres for €15.3 million, Bah for €8.6 million, and most notably of all, Enzo Fernández for €10 million. What makes these signings even more impressive is the fact that none of them came from a major European league; they arrived from Shakhtar Donetsk, Slavia Prague, and River Plate respectively.

To top it off, Benfica truly understand the idea of "buy low, sell high". Last off-season, Benfica sold Everton to Flamengo for €13.5 million, Roman Yaremchuk to Brugge for €16 million, and stunningly, Darwin Núñez to Liverpool for €75 million. Not one of those players has even come close to justifying their price tags since leaving. Benfica then proceeded to top themselves in January when they sold Fernández to Chelsea for a staggering €121 million following the Argentine's impressive World Cup campaign in which he was named Best Young Player. Predictably, Fernández has struggled ever since arriving in London - a fitting microcosm of both Benfica's and Chelsea's respective seasons.

In past issues, I have mentioned that playing in a weaker domestic league can end up taking some of the "edge" off a team and inhibit their level of play in the Champions League. This, however, has evidently not been true of As Águias. Even though they have been dominating the Primeira Liga thus far with 17 wins in 20 matches and will likely reclaim the league title they last won in 2019, one could easily make the argument that they have been even more impressive on the continental front.

When Benfica were drawn into a Champions League group containing Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus, many expected Benfica to be cannon fodder for their two more established opponents. Not only did Benfica prove to be exactly the opposite; they went on to top the group and as mentioned, are now almost certainly in the quarterfinals. At this point, it would not even be that surprising if they were to reach the semifinals for the first time since 1990.

Of course, there's still a lot of football yet to be played this season - things could potentially go wrong for Benfica at any time. However, given the way they are playing and the way the club is run, it's difficult to envision such a scenario taking place. Not only that - their future seems extremely bright, especially when considering the fact that they have barely even touched the money they have received from Fernández's sale.

It's more than likely that exciting times at the Estádio da Luz await.

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