The Weekly Take, Issue 298: A Down Year Was Expected - But Not Like This

RB Leipzig dropped crucial points in their pursuit of the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot from the Bundesliga after succumbing to a 2-1 away loss to Bayern Munich. Shortly after half-time, Harry Kane opened the scoring for Bayern. Despite having fewer chances throughout, Leipzig equalized in the 70th minute through Benjamin Šeško. Leipzig, however, were unable to hang on to a share of the points following Kane's stoppage-time winning goal that snapped Bayern's three-match losing streak in all competitions.

Ever since the resumption of play following the Bundesliga's mid-season break, Leipzig's form has been rather questionable. Die Bullen have dropped cheap points on multiple occasions and have now lost five of their last eight matches. This has caused the Saxony club to slip out of an all-important top-four spot; they're now in genuine danger of failing to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since the 2017-18 season when they finished sixth in the league.

This season had always been expected to be something of a transitional year for Leipzig. The off-season departures of Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea, Dominik Szoboszlai to Liverpool, and Joško Gvardiol to Manchester City for an eye-popping cumulative fee of €225 million. Funded by these as well as other departures, Leipzig put their newfound windfall to work. Over the off-season, Leipzig spent €157 million on seven different players; they also added a player via free transfer and two more on loan deals - most notably, Dutch rising star Xavi Simons who was acquired on a temporary basis from Paris Saint-Germain.

However, things haven't quite gone according to plan as far as Leipzig's new signings are concerned. Only Simons, Loïs Openda, and Castello Lukeba have even been able to establish themselves as regular starters at all; on top of that, Lukeba has looked rather unimpressive in his starting role. While it's true that at 21, the French centre-back still has room to grow, don't be surprised if he's primarily confined to the bench as soon as the commencement of next season - or perhaps even before. Even Leipzig's sole mid-season signing, North Macedonian midfielder Eljif Elmas, has barely made any impact thus far.

It does somewhat feel as though Leipzig are losing their touch with regard to transfers. In past years, Leipzig had always been one of Europe's more savvy teams in the transfer window and had deservedly gained a reputation as such - but that may soon begin to erode if it hasn't already. One could certainly make the case that Leipzig's failures across both transfer windows have been the primary cause of their struggles this season.

At times, Leipzig do seem as though they are starting to become over-reliant on Simons. At just 20, Simons is already clearly the club's best player despite only being there on a loan deal. As great as he has been, he's not yet at the level when one can reasonably expect him to be in peak form almost every single week. It's not unreasonable to claim that Simons will be a future Ballon d'Or candidate - but at this point, when he has below-par performances like that against Bayern, the rest of Leipzig's roster just have not stepped up.

Outside of their front four, one has to question the general fit of Leipzig's roster in totality. This is far from the cohesive unit which Leipzig have brought out in recent years. Depth-wise, not even their bench honestly is much to get excited over right now either. Couple that with the occasional inconsistency from the likes of Šeško and Dani Olmo and it's perfectly understandable why Leipzig have not lived up to expectations in either domestic or continental play.

Leipzig's next four league matches will be critical for their top-four hopes. In consecutive matchdays, they play against the four teams which currently make up the bottom four in the league: VfL Bochum, Darmstadt, Köln, and Mainz. On paper, one would expect Leipzig to go four for four. However, such has been the decline in Leipzig's form, particularly since the break, that this actually seems like a somewhat unlikely scenario.

Of course, it's important to remember that RB Leipzig are still just one point outside the Champions League qualification spots. It would be foolhardy to write them off even at this point - but based on how Leipzig are currently trending, it's safe to say that the signs do not look good right now.

The Weekly Take, Issue 297: Rounding Into Peak Form

After the mid-season break, the Champions League has resumed with the first leg of round of 16 ties. This week, the standout fixture was the match between RB Leipzig and Real Madrid.

Leipzig were first to get the ball into the net via Benjamin Šeško in the third minute; however, his goal did not stand following a VAR check revealing that the Slovenian striker had fouled Real goalkeeper Andriy Lunin in his attempt. Leipzig were made to pay for this shortly after half-time when Brahim Díaz scored a spectacular goal to put Los Merengues a goal ahead. At the final whistle, the score remained 1-0 in no small part due to an outstanding performance between the goalposts by Lunin.

We have seen this before from Real - when in the first half of the season they, while not necessarily playing poorly, still seem as though they're keeping something in the tank only to ramp things up after the halfway points of the season and coming into form at just the right time. This match and the one before it in the league against Girona are perfect examples - especially because Real won both matches in strikingly different ways.

Against Girona, Real ripped the heart right out of their closest title challengers. The club from the capital dominated right from the opening kick-off and stalling what had been one of this season's greatest stories, burying their Catalan opponents 4-0. This Champions League match against Leipzig, on the other hand, showcased Real's grit and tenacity. Despite not always having the best goalscoring chances, one always had the sense that somehow, Real would find a way - and so they did.

There's an expression which most people reading this haven't heard before, but it's one that aptly describes Real. After winning the Pokémon VGC World Championship in 2016, Wolfe Glick coined the phrase "world champion difference". While this was initially done in a tongue-in-cheek manner, he was more on the money than he might have realized - and it's an aphorism that applies to sports as well. Real are quite simply a team that "know how to win and know when to step up a gear".

Keep in mind that this is a team which won the Champions League just two years ago, are coached by arguably the greatest to ever do it in Carlo Ancelotti, and are brimming with big-match experience - and that even includes their younger players. On top of that, the thought of facing a team like Real as the Champions League reaches the sharp end has to play on opponents' minds. Such is the reputation that Real have built up, particularly on the continental stage, that in some ways they start a match with a mental edge over the team they're facing - and that can almost function as if they start a goal up.

Not only that - the victory against Leipzig was achieved in the absence of the injured Jude Bellingham. This season, the English midfielder has ascended to bona fide Ballon d'Or contender status and revealed himself as a truly generational prospect. At just 20, Bellingham is not only already Real's best player but is also likely six or seven years away from his absolute peak - a mind-melting thought indeed. The fact that Real were able to pivot so smoothly in Bellingham's absence speaks volumes of their squad's depth and cohesiveness. That's exactly what they need in their pursuit of a La Liga and Champions League double.

As well as Real have been playing recently, in some ways it still does feel as though they have another gear to reach. Should that be the case, it will be very difficult to stop their attempt to win a second Champions League in three seasons, a sixth in 11, and a record-extending 15th in total.

There are some teams which one just instinctively trusts down the stretch, when things get tight and the pressure is at its highest. Again and again, Real Madrid have proven to be such a team. While it's of course not out of the question that the wheels could suddenly fall off and things might start going wrong, based on everything that we've seen over the past decade or so, that's unlikely to say the least.

The Weekly Take, Issue 296: The End of an Era Approaches

For quite some time now, at the beginning of every Bundesliga season it was more or less assumed that Bayern Munich would finish the season with the league trophy in hand. This has been true for an unprecedented 11 seasons in a row - but this streak seems as though it could finally end this season.

Bayern collapsed to a 3-0 loss against Bayer Leverkusen, causing them to slip five points behind their opponents. Josip Stanišić, playing for Leverkusen on a loan deal from Bayern, opened the scoring in the 18th minute. It got even worse after the break; just five minutes after the interval, Álex Grimaldo doubled the Rhine club's lead. In stoppage time, Jeremie Frimpong dealt the final blow to leave Bayern in an unfamiliar position - one in which the Bundesliga title seems farther away than it has been for them in years.

For one thing, Leverkusen are playing like an unstoppable juggernaut. Almost halfway through February, Leverkusen have not lost even one match in any competition this season. If Leverkusen maintain their current blistering pace, there is little to no chance of Bayern being able to catch them.

That being said, there have been clear issues at Bayern which have hampered their title hopes all season long. Chief among these is perhaps the guy in the dugout - one wonders if head coach Thomas Tuchel has by now worn out his welcome at the Allianz Arena. On multiple occasions this season, Tuchel has made questionable tactical decisions which have likely caused Bayern to drop cheap points. Such was once again the case against Leverkusen. Tuchel eschewed his usual 4-2-3-1 formation in favour of a 3-4-2-1 "pocket strat" to mirror the setup of his opposite number Xabi Alonso. Needless to say, this unconventional choice backfired spectacularly. Bayern's ownership group have since confirmed that Tuchel will not be fired any time soon. That could end up being the decision that sinks the Bavarian club's attempt to win the league for the 12th straight season.

Bayern's overdependence on Leroy Sané and Harry Kane has also revealed itself as a clear problem. Bayern haven't been getting enough offensive output from anyone besides their two superstars. The duo of Sané and Kane have combined for 32 of Bayern's 59 league goals as well as 16 assists. Such a skewed ratio is almost certainly not sustainable - particularly if one or even both picks up an injury down the stretch run of the season or happen to hit a slump. Neither were at their best against Leverkusen and once again, nobody stepped up to pick up the slack. Bayern's xG of 0.57 really says it all - they couldn't get anything working up front.

Although Bayern have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league thus far this season, they've nonetheless given up many cheap goalscoring chances along the way but haven't always been punished for doing so. This, however, was an example of such. Despite having 61% of the possession against Leverkusen, Bayern let Leverkusen attempt 14 shots of which eight were on target. While it does appear that Bayern tried to address this during the January transfer window by signing two defenders - Sacha Boey from Galatasaray and Eric Dier on a loan deal from Tottenham Hotspur - it's evident that neither signing has really moved the needle. Even the off-season signing of Kim Min-jae from Napoli hasn't had the impact for which Bayern would have hoped.

Although Bayern won the league last season, there were already signs of a decline as they almost surrendered a large lead to Borussia Dortmund. Considering that last season's Dortmund are clearly a tier below this season's Leverkusen as well as the fact that all of the issues which Bayern faced down the final weeks of last season are finally coming to a head, it's no wonder that Bayern are struggling to defend their league title.

Of course, history has shown us that Bayern Munich can never be counted out until they are mathematically out of the title race. However, this season such a scenario appears more and more likely with each passing matchday. At this point, bringing the Bundesliga trophy back to the Allianz Arena looks like a tall order indeed.

The Weekly Take, Issue 295: Let Off the Hook - But for How Long?

Unlike what has often been the case over the past decade, this iteration of the Madrid derby did not feature a Real Madrid and an Atlético Madrid team which were both in contention for the league title. Heading into the match, Atlético were in fourth place in La Liga and 10 points behind their cross-town rivals who topped the league. This has unquestionably been one of the most difficult seasons at the Wanda Metropolitano ever since they established themselves as a genuine powerhouse of Spanish football.

Somewhat surprisingly, Atlético left the Santiago Bernabéu with a share of the points following a 1-1 draw despite having been clearly outplayed throughout the match. Brahim Díaz marked an outstanding individual performance with an early goal to put Real one goal ahead at half-time. A few minutes after the interval, Atlético believed that they'd equalized after Stefan Savić headed the ball into the net from Antoine Griezmann header. However, it did not count as a VAR check revealed that Atlético midfielder Saúl Ñíguez was offside.

Although Real continued to dictate play and control proceedings, they would eventually be shockingly denied all three points in stoppage time. Marcos Llorente's goal ensure that if nothing else, Atlético would at least put the brakes on Real's league title bid and prevent them from taking advantage of Girona's prior 0-0 draw against Real Sociedad.

However, this result did not benefit either team. Atlético are attempting to stay in the top four and thereby clinch a spot in next season's Champions League. This derby draw saw their lead over fifth-placed Athletic Bilbao cut to three points after the Basque club destroyed Mallorca 4-0. While it's certainly not time to panic yet, Atlético's 11-year Champions League qualification streak is now in actual jeopardy.

In truth, Atlético can count themselves rather fortunate to have managed a draw. Most of the time, being outplayed by such a clear margin would result in a decisive loss. The match against Real highlighted several issues which have plagued Atlético all season long. As has so often been the case this season, Atlético allowed their opponents the freedom to create far too many goalscoring opportunities. While they might have been let off the hook this time, that won't always be the case - indeed, it's exactly this which has cost them many points this season.

One-on-one defense has also been a problem for Atlético this season. In this match, Real's first goal was a direct result of sub-par one-on-one defense. Twice during the build-up, a Real player was left with way too much room, allowing them to set up the next pass in the move which led to Brahim's opening goal. Historically speaking, this has been something of an outlier as ever since Diego Simeone first took over in the dugout back in 2011. Simeone's tactics have always favoured a tight defensive approach - the squads of 2014 to 2021 almost never committed such errors like that.

Atlético's dismal away form has to be their biggest cause for concern. While every team does perform better at home, Atlético have amassed just 14 of their 48 league points on the road. Should they continue to hand out cheap points left, right, and centre while on their travels, it certainly won't be easy to hang on to fourth place in the league.

Of course, there's still time for Atlético to right the ship and solidify their place in the top four. They are yet to play Barcelona and Girona for the second time in the league this season. Additionally, a deep Champions League run is still not out of the question; however, Atlético are the clear underdogs heading into their round of 16 tie against Inter Milan. Unless things change soon, this could end up becoming perhaps Atlético's most disappointing season of the hitherto tremendously successful Simeone era.

At this moment, Atlético Madrid have achieved more than enough in recent times to have earned themselves the benefit of the doubt. However, ultimately sports is about "what have you done for me lately?" Atlético just aren't the force they were even three years ago. It's clear that if they have to keep relying on stronger rivals failing to finish the job, it will likely not end well for them this season.