Saturday, February 24, 2024

The Weekly Take, Issue 298: A Down Year Was Expected - But Not Like This

RB Leipzig dropped crucial points in their pursuit of the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot from the Bundesliga after succumbing to a 2-1 away loss to Bayern Munich. Shortly after half-time, Harry Kane opened the scoring for Bayern. Despite having fewer chances throughout, Leipzig equalized in the 70th minute through Benjamin Šeško. Leipzig, however, were unable to hang on to a share of the points following Kane's stoppage-time winning goal that snapped Bayern's three-match losing streak in all competitions.

Ever since the resumption of play following the Bundesliga's mid-season break, Leipzig's form has been rather questionable. Die Bullen have dropped cheap points on multiple occasions and have now lost five of their last eight matches. This has caused the Saxony club to slip out of an all-important top-four spot; they're now in genuine danger of failing to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since the 2017-18 season when they finished sixth in the league.

This season had always been expected to be something of a transitional year for Leipzig. The off-season departures of Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea, Dominik Szoboszlai to Liverpool, and Joško Gvardiol to Manchester City for an eye-popping cumulative fee of €225 million. Funded by these as well as other departures, Leipzig put their newfound windfall to work. Over the off-season, Leipzig spent €157 million on seven different players; they also added a player via free transfer and two more on loan deals - most notably, Dutch rising star Xavi Simons who was acquired on a temporary basis from Paris Saint-Germain.

However, things haven't quite gone according to plan as far as Leipzig's new signings are concerned. Only Simons, Loïs Openda, and Castello Lukeba have even been able to establish themselves as regular starters at all; on top of that, Lukeba has looked rather unimpressive in his starting role. While it's true that at 21, the French centre-back still has room to grow, don't be surprised if he's primarily confined to the bench as soon as the commencement of next season - or perhaps even before. Even Leipzig's sole mid-season signing, North Macedonian midfielder Eljif Elmas, has barely made any impact thus far.

It does somewhat feel as though Leipzig are losing their touch with regard to transfers. In past years, Leipzig had always been one of Europe's more savvy teams in the transfer window and had deservedly gained a reputation as such - but that may soon begin to erode if it hasn't already. One could certainly make the case that Leipzig's failures across both transfer windows have been the primary cause of their struggles this season.

At times, Leipzig do seem as though they are starting to become over-reliant on Simons. At just 20, Simons is already clearly the club's best player despite only being there on a loan deal. As great as he has been, he's not yet at the level when one can reasonably expect him to be in peak form almost every single week. It's not unreasonable to claim that Simons will be a future Ballon d'Or candidate - but at this point, when he has below-par performances like that against Bayern, the rest of Leipzig's roster just have not stepped up.

Outside of their front four, one has to question the general fit of Leipzig's roster in totality. This is far from the cohesive unit which Leipzig have brought out in recent years. Depth-wise, not even their bench honestly is much to get excited over right now either. Couple that with the occasional inconsistency from the likes of Šeško and Dani Olmo and it's perfectly understandable why Leipzig have not lived up to expectations in either domestic or continental play.

Leipzig's next four league matches will be critical for their top-four hopes. In consecutive matchdays, they play against the four teams which currently make up the bottom four in the league: VfL Bochum, Darmstadt, Köln, and Mainz. On paper, one would expect Leipzig to go four for four. However, such has been the decline in Leipzig's form, particularly since the break, that this actually seems like a somewhat unlikely scenario.

Of course, it's important to remember that RB Leipzig are still just one point outside the Champions League qualification spots. It would be foolhardy to write them off even at this point - but based on how Leipzig are currently trending, it's safe to say that the signs do not look good right now.

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