Saturday, February 10, 2024

The Weekly Take, Issue 296: The End of an Era Approaches

For quite some time now, at the beginning of every Bundesliga season it was more or less assumed that Bayern Munich would finish the season with the league trophy in hand. This has been true for an unprecedented 11 seasons in a row - but this streak seems as though it could finally end this season.

Bayern collapsed to a 3-0 loss against Bayer Leverkusen, causing them to slip five points behind their opponents. Josip Stanišić, playing for Leverkusen on a loan deal from Bayern, opened the scoring in the 18th minute. It got even worse after the break; just five minutes after the interval, Álex Grimaldo doubled the Rhine club's lead. In stoppage time, Jeremie Frimpong dealt the final blow to leave Bayern in an unfamiliar position - one in which the Bundesliga title seems farther away than it has been for them in years.

For one thing, Leverkusen are playing like an unstoppable juggernaut. Almost halfway through February, Leverkusen have not lost even one match in any competition this season. If Leverkusen maintain their current blistering pace, there is little to no chance of Bayern being able to catch them.

That being said, there have been clear issues at Bayern which have hampered their title hopes all season long. Chief among these is perhaps the guy in the dugout - one wonders if head coach Thomas Tuchel has by now worn out his welcome at the Allianz Arena. On multiple occasions this season, Tuchel has made questionable tactical decisions which have likely caused Bayern to drop cheap points. Such was once again the case against Leverkusen. Tuchel eschewed his usual 4-2-3-1 formation in favour of a 3-4-2-1 "pocket strat" to mirror the setup of his opposite number Xabi Alonso. Needless to say, this unconventional choice backfired spectacularly. Bayern's ownership group have since confirmed that Tuchel will not be fired any time soon. That could end up being the decision that sinks the Bavarian club's attempt to win the league for the 12th straight season.

Bayern's overdependence on Leroy Sané and Harry Kane has also revealed itself as a clear problem. Bayern haven't been getting enough offensive output from anyone besides their two superstars. The duo of Sané and Kane have combined for 32 of Bayern's 59 league goals as well as 16 assists. Such a skewed ratio is almost certainly not sustainable - particularly if one or even both picks up an injury down the stretch run of the season or happen to hit a slump. Neither were at their best against Leverkusen and once again, nobody stepped up to pick up the slack. Bayern's xG of 0.57 really says it all - they couldn't get anything working up front.

Although Bayern have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league thus far this season, they've nonetheless given up many cheap goalscoring chances along the way but haven't always been punished for doing so. This, however, was an example of such. Despite having 61% of the possession against Leverkusen, Bayern let Leverkusen attempt 14 shots of which eight were on target. While it does appear that Bayern tried to address this during the January transfer window by signing two defenders - Sacha Boey from Galatasaray and Eric Dier on a loan deal from Tottenham Hotspur - it's evident that neither signing has really moved the needle. Even the off-season signing of Kim Min-jae from Napoli hasn't had the impact for which Bayern would have hoped.

Although Bayern won the league last season, there were already signs of a decline as they almost surrendered a large lead to Borussia Dortmund. Considering that last season's Dortmund are clearly a tier below this season's Leverkusen as well as the fact that all of the issues which Bayern faced down the final weeks of last season are finally coming to a head, it's no wonder that Bayern are struggling to defend their league title.

Of course, history has shown us that Bayern Munich can never be counted out until they are mathematically out of the title race. However, this season such a scenario appears more and more likely with each passing matchday. At this point, bringing the Bundesliga trophy back to the Allianz Arena looks like a tall order indeed.

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