The Weekly Take, Issue 246: All Their Eggs in One Basket

The standout fixture of the most recent La Liga matchday was obviously the Madrid derby. It finished in a 1-1 draw - a result which was of no benefit to either Real Madrid or Atlético Madrid. Atlético scored first despite having been reduced to 10 men in the 64th minute following Ángel Correa's controversial red card. A quarter-hour after the incident, Uruguayan centre-back José María Giménez scored with a header to put Atlético on course to claim all three points. However, six minutes later, Giménez's compatriot Álvaro Rodríguez, playing in just the second La Liga match of his career, scored Los Merengues' equalizer.

The fact that both Madrid clubs split the result meant that Atlético missed an opportunity to move into third place in the league and boost their chances of a top-four finish and the Champions League berth that accompanies it. As for Real, the result all but ensures that they will not defend their league title. They now trail league leaders Barcelona by seven points despite having played an additional match.

After having won 10 and drawn one of their first 11 league matches, Real's domestic form has been inconsistent since. Over their 12 La Liga matches since that point, Real have accumulated just 21 points in the league. This run of poor form has included losses against Villarreal and Mallorca as well as a draw against Girona, just to name a few notable missed opportunities.

Real have been hit hard by post-World Cup fatigue - many of their players have not even been close to peak level ever since returning from Qatar. Luka Modrić, Eduardo Camavinga, and Aurélien Tchouaméni have evidently been paying for their efforts during international football's showpiece tournament, while players who had disappointing World Cup campaigns such as Dani Carvajal, Federico Valverde, and Antonio Rüdiger continued to be out of form upon their returns to the Spanish capital. This has allowed Barça to open up a lead which at this point seems all but insurmountable.

The uncertainty around head coach Carlo Ancelotti has also added an air of instability around the club. There had been rumours that Ancelotti would have been fired had Real Madrid not won the Club World Cup as well as links between the legendary Italian coach and the now-vacant position at the helm of the Brazil national team. Although nothing has yet become of either of these rumours, they nevertheless provide the club with a distraction which cannot be afforded right now.

Real did not sign any players during the mid-season transfer window; this is beginning to look like a mistake. Of particular note is the fact that Real did not strengthen their defense. Rüdiger, Carvajal, David Alaba, and Ferland Mendy have all been well below the required standard this season. It's virtually guaranteed that at least one of these defenders will find themselves on the way out of the Santiago Bernabéu at some point in the next off-season. However, if Real were to have seriously challenged Barça for the league title, they ought to have signed a defender in January. Their failure to do so might just have finished off whatever chance they may have had to win the league.

At this point, Real's most likely avenue to win a title this season is the Champions League; in fact, Real should go all-in on it. Not only will Real almost certainly not win La Liga; it is also highly unlikely that they will win the Copa del Rey. They have been drawn against Barça in the last four. Almost throughout the entire season, Barça have clearly been superior to Real. It will be extremely difficult for Real to beat their Catalan arch-rivals over two legs. On the other hand, Real lead Liverpool 5-2 after the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 fixture. Additionally, playing in Europe's leading club tournament has always seemed to unlock a higher gear within Real. And, in a Champions League missing powerhouses like Arsenal, Manchester United, Atlético, and Union Berlin, there is every chance that Real could win the Champions League for a record-extending 15th time.

For most top teams, it isn't advisable to fixate on one tournament at the expense of all the others. However, if Real Madrid are to finish the season with a title to their name and if Ancelotti is to ensure he remains in the Bernabéu dugout, doing so might be exactly what has to be done.

The Weekly Take, Issue 245: This Season's Overlooked Dark Horse Contender

It has been 19 years since a team from outside one of Europe's major football leagues won the Champions League. In 2004, Porto stunned the world of football with an astonishing underdog run to the title. Since then, the gap between the major leagues and the rest has grown exponentially to the point at which many wondered if such a triumph will ever happen again.

However, although it is not necessarily the most likely outcome, a title for "the little guys" cannot completely be ruled out this season. The team I'm referring to is Benfica, whose 2-0 win over Club Brugge in their first-leg Champions League round of 16 match all but put them into the tournament's quarterfinals for the second season in a row. João Mário's goal from the penalty spot shortly after half-time would be followed by one from David Neres two minutes before the end of regulation time.

Given the recent history of the Champions League, it's perfectly understandable why essentially no one at all picked Benfica to go all the way. But upon closer inspection, this is a squad which, if everything falls into place, might just reveal themselves as genuine dark horse contenders to win it all.

Benfica's formidable defense has been a key, if not the key, driving force behind their success this season. The highly underrated Spanish left-back Álex Grimaldo has been perhaps their best player this season. Accompanied by veteran centre-back and captain Nicolás Otamendi, rising star António Silva, and off-season acquisition Alexander Bah, Benfica's air-tight defense has conceded a meagre 12 goals in 22 Primeira Liga matches this season.

In both the off-season and mid-season transfer windows, Benfica put on an absolute masterclass. During the off-season, the Lisbon club signed Neres for €15.3 million, Bah for €8.6 million, and most notably of all, Enzo Fernández for €10 million. What makes these signings even more impressive is the fact that none of them came from a major European league; they arrived from Shakhtar Donetsk, Slavia Prague, and River Plate respectively.

To top it off, Benfica truly understand the idea of "buy low, sell high". Last off-season, Benfica sold Everton to Flamengo for €13.5 million, Roman Yaremchuk to Brugge for €16 million, and stunningly, Darwin Núñez to Liverpool for €75 million. Not one of those players has even come close to justifying their price tags since leaving. Benfica then proceeded to top themselves in January when they sold Fernández to Chelsea for a staggering €121 million following the Argentine's impressive World Cup campaign in which he was named Best Young Player. Predictably, Fernández has struggled ever since arriving in London - a fitting microcosm of both Benfica's and Chelsea's respective seasons.

In past issues, I have mentioned that playing in a weaker domestic league can end up taking some of the "edge" off a team and inhibit their level of play in the Champions League. This, however, has evidently not been true of As Águias. Even though they have been dominating the Primeira Liga thus far with 17 wins in 20 matches and will likely reclaim the league title they last won in 2019, one could easily make the argument that they have been even more impressive on the continental front.

When Benfica were drawn into a Champions League group containing Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus, many expected Benfica to be cannon fodder for their two more established opponents. Not only did Benfica prove to be exactly the opposite; they went on to top the group and as mentioned, are now almost certainly in the quarterfinals. At this point, it would not even be that surprising if they were to reach the semifinals for the first time since 1990.

Of course, there's still a lot of football yet to be played this season - things could potentially go wrong for Benfica at any time. However, given the way they are playing and the way the club is run, it's difficult to envision such a scenario taking place. Not only that - their future seems extremely bright, especially when considering the fact that they have barely even touched the money they have received from Fernández's sale.

It's more than likely that exciting times at the Estádio da Luz await.

The Weekly Take, Issue 244: Slipping Further Behind

The standout La Liga fixture of this weekend's matchday saw Villarreal host runaway league leaders Barcelona. This was a crucial match for Villarreal - if they were to overcome the odds and emerge with a draw or even a win, it would have been a key step forward in their chase for a top-four spot and a berth in next season's UEFA Champions League.

This would turn out not to be the case. Pedri's first-half goal ensured that Villarreal would lose their third consecutive league match. The 1-0 loss against their Catalan opponents caused the Valencian club to slip to eighth place in La Liga, seven points behind fourth-placed Atlético Madrid. Villarreal's chances of qualifying for the 2023-24 Champions League now appear increasingly slim.

When this season began, the outlook regarding Villarreal had been generally positive. Having won the Europa League two seasons prior, then following it up with an impressive run to the Champions League semifinals which saw them knock pre-tournament favourites Bayern Munich out of the competition in the quarterfinals, Villarreal were seen as a team clearly on the rise and a firm contender for a top-four league finish and with it, a second Champions League berth in three seasons.

However, Villarreal's season to date has obviously not gone according to plan. That being said, Villarreal were still in contention for the top four when the moment that may have sunk their chances took place. Last October, Villarreal were in seventh place in the league and fresh off a 2-1 home win against Almería when head coach Unai Emery left his position to take the job at Premier League club Aston Villa where he would replace the recently-fired Steven Gerrard. Incidentally, Emery's move to England appears to have been one which hasn't really worked out for either party; he has struggled ever since stepping into the dugout at Villa Park.

The day after Emery's departure was confirmed, Villarreal replaced the Basque with Quique Setién. Setién accepted his first such role since his ill-fated seven-month stint in charge of Barça in 2020. In the four months since then, Setién has been underwhelming at Villarreal. Although things appeared to be starting to change for the better when Villarreal beat Real Madrid for a third consecutive league victory, Villarreal proceeded to follow it up with a five-match run in which they won just one match and accumulated a meagre four points. Additionally, two weeks after Villarreal's victory against Real, they would be eliminated from the Copa del Rey by the same opponents. It has become increasingly clear that Setién should not be Villarreal's long-term solution. He is evidently not a coach who is able to get it done at this level.

Villarreal's failure to make any moves of note in both the mid-season and off-season transfer windows must also be pointed out. None of Villarreal's acquisitions have really moved the needle; this point is especially salient when considering the fact that Villarreal sold Pervis Estupiñán to Brighton & Hove Albion for €17.8 million during the off-season but failed to make good use of this influx of money. The mid-season departure of goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli, Villarreal's best player this season, to Ajax only served to make things even more difficult - particularly since he has been replaced in goal by a geriatric Pepe Reina.

Villarreal's struggles up front have also been obvious. They have scored just 22 league goals in 21 matches this season; their leading goalscorer Gerard Moreno has just five to his name. Their drop-off from last season is remarkable, having notched 63 league goals in 2021-22. That said, although they may not have immediately seen this coming, they could certainly have brought in reinforcements up front in January. They did not and will likely go on to rue that.

It does somewhat feel as though Villarreal never truly appreciated how good their situation last season really was and thus overlooked multiple opportunities to build on this success. Instead, they have regressed by way of an ill-advised coaching change as well as several transfer blunders while multiple direct rivals have strengthened. Although Villarreal are not yet completely out of the running in the chase for a top-four finish, it's certainly a very tall order at this point.

The Weekly Take, Issue 243: A Most Welcome Psychological Boost

This season's Bundesliga title race is shaping up to be quite possibly the most competitive in history. With more than half of the season completed, six teams are still in contention to claim the league title. Two of those teams faced off during the most recent matchday when Borussia Dortmund hosted SC Freiburg.

To the surprise of just about everyone, Dortmund completely took Freiburg apart in a dominant 5-1 victory. Although five different Dortmund players scored for Die Schwarzgelben, one name among the five goalscorers understandably stood out: Sébastien Haller, who scored his first goal for the club since returning from testicular cancer. To make the moment even more poignant, this match took place on World Cancer Day.

By any measure, Dortmund had weathered a turbulent off-season before the current campaign began. In July of last year, Manchester City signed superstar centre-forward Erling Haaland from Dortmund for the astonishingly low transfer fee of €60 million. To put this figure into perspective, Haaland's true transfer value at the time was €150 million - 250% of what City actually paid to sign the Norwegian.

It wasn't long after that when Haller revealed that he had been diagnosed with testicular cancer. What made this even more of a blow for Dortmund was the fact that the club had just signed the Ivorian striker from Ajax. Thus, Dortmund's slow start to the season came as little surprise. After 10 matchdays, Dortmund were way off the pace; they were eighth in the league at the time and had accumulated just four points from their preceding five league matches. At that point, Dortmund's prospects for the rest of the season were undeniably grim.

However, ever since returning from the league's extended mid-season break, Dortmund have been just about the complete opposite of what they had been before it. Dortmund's current four-match winning streak in which they have scored 13 goals has carried them up to third place in the league, just two points behind surprise league leaders Union Berlin. Just like that, Dortmund find themselves firmly in the midst of the Bundesliga title race.

It is no coincidence that Dortmund's surge in form has come alongside Haller's return to the field. Having spent half a year fighting for his life, Haller's very presence in the matchday squad has served to inspire and galvanize the rest of the team. Even if Haller does not score another goal for the rest of the season, his return might just turn out to be the "X-factor" that propels Dortmund to a first league title since 2012.

Additionally, that scenario is almost certainly not going to happen. Once Haller is fully back into the swing of things, the goals should start coming back. It must not be forgotten that Haller is a proven marksman who is fresh off a breakout season at Ajax. What's more, his prior two-season Bundesliga stint at Eintracht Frankfurt was also fairly successful; Haller scored 15 league goals in the 2018-19 season to help keep the club in contention for a 2019-20 Champions League spot for almost the whole season until a late slump knocked them down to a seventh-place league finish.

Although Haller's return may add just one more available player to Dortmund's roster, its symbolic impact goes far beyond that. Though it may be true that occurrences such as this are "bigger than football", it is also equally true that these same occurrences can (and usually do) have an impact on the associated club's play. Considering how tight the race for the Bundesliga crown is right now, every club in it needs any and every edge which might be obtained. For Dortmund, Haller's return might be exactly that. On top of that, Haller's return will surely make Dortmund the neutrals' pick - the "sentimental favourite" due to the narrative which has now developed around them.

Should Borussia Dortmund somehow defy the odds and become champions of Germany for the first time in more than a decade, Haller's story will undoubtedly become an iconic part of Dortmund and Bundesliga lore. In a season full of twists and turns, this latest boost to Dortmund's title hopes might end up being the most decisive one of all - one so great that it may even end up overriding Haaland's bargain-bin departure last July.