Sunday, December 24, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 289: The Revival Nobody Saw Coming

The latest edition of the Derby del Sole had an additional layer of importance with both AS Roma and Napoli in contention for the top four and berths in next season's revamped Champions League. Roma emerged with a crucial 2-0 victory. Substitute Lorenzo Pellegrini opened the scoring in the 76th minute. In the sixth minute of stoppage time, Romelu Lukaku scored his eighth league goal of the season to secure all three points for the Giallorossi.

Despite having 60% of the possession, Napoli were never in control of the match, attempting just seven shots to Roma's 17 and seldom putting together a productive stretch of play. In addition, Napoli finished the match with just nine men following red cards received by Matteo Politano and Victor Osimhen.

If Roma were to make it to next season's Champions League, it would be their first time doing so in six years. While Roma have seen the likes of Bryan Cristante, Leonardo Spinazzola, Paulo Dybala, and Diego Llorente making key contributions, there's another name there which has to be noted: that of Lukaku.

After a dismal 2021-22 season at Chelsea in which his form completely fell off the cliff from the prior season, Lukaku was loaned back to Inter Milan where he had been so dominant before. However, this second go-around at the San Siro would see the Belgian centre-forward not even come close to the levels which he reached in his previous two-year stint at Inter. As a result, when Lukaku returned to Stamford Bridge at the beginning of this season, he was unsurprisingly loaned out again - this time to Roma.

Lukaku's loan stint at Roma almost didn't even happen at all. Inter attempted to sign Lukaku permanently, but this never materialized. Rumours about a move to Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain, and even Saudi Arabia had circulated before the deal with Roma was struck. Roma's loan acquisition of Lukaku was largely facilitated by Lukaku's interest in once again working with José Mourinho, who had coached him at Manchester United between 2016 and 2018. Despite this, many were skeptical of the move.

In a twist that very few could have seen coming, Lukaku is in his best form since leaving Inter for the first time back in the 2021 off-season. With 13 goals in all competitions as the season approaches its halfway point, Lukaku has spearheaded a Roma attack that - contrary to the stereotypical Mourinho team - has been heavy on goals with 30 in the league thus far, ranking Roma third behind Inter and AC Milan in this statistic.

Probably the main factor behind Lukaku's resurgence is that, at least right now, Roma are a team that suit a centre-forward like him. Full of capable playmakers like Dybala, Leandro Paredes, and Cristante, this Roma team is set up to make Lukaku able to function as the classic target man up front - the role in which he has largely thrived throughout his career.

While a seemingly minor point, Lukaku's interest in working with Mourinho should also be pointed out. During his time at United, Lukaku's best stretch of form coincided with Mourinho's tenure there. After Mourinho was fired in December 2018, Lukaku's form dipped dramatically, ultimately leading to his exit in the 2019 off-season. Although this is certainly not the main source of Lukaku's revival, it cannot be overlooked as a potential contributing factor.

That being said, the one question which has plagued Lukaku for much of his career continues to do so: can he turn it up when the pressure is at its highest? Time and time again we have seen Lukaku come up short whenever his team has most needed a big performance from him. The prime examples of this failure to deliver in the clutch were his own goal to lose the 2020 Europa League final for Inter and his shambolic display in Inter's 2023 Champions League final loss to Manchester City. Until he actually does produce in high-stakes matches, there will always be warranted skepticism around him.

Romelu Lukaku has had quite the career - one with a myriad of ups and downs, twists and turns, and wild swings in form. After a long spell in the footballing doldrums, he seems to be on the way back - but will it last? With how unpredictable his play, especially in recent years, has been, anyone who would make a definitive comment on that is daring indeed.

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 288: Falling Behind with No Plan

Manchester United's troubled season has just hit a new low. The Red Devils' 1-0 loss to Bayern Munich in the last group-stage matchday of this season's Champions League ensured that United would not only be knocked out of the tournament before the last 16, but would also do so in last place in Group A and thus even missed entry into the Europa League.

Heading into the match, some might have expected Bayern to have fielded more backups than they ordinarily would have as they had already clinched first place in the group. However, this was not the case; Bayern made just one change from the starting 11 that were shockingly destroyed 5-1 by Eintracht Frankfurt in their Bundesliga match over the weekend. Thomas Tuchel's decision against making widespread changes paid off, with Kingsley Coman scoring the only goal of the match shortly after the half-time break.

For United, this was a match which as so often has been the case this season, yielded more questions than answers. While not quite in full-blown crisis mode at the moment, United's future is as murky as it has ever been - and one of the players who has been among the chief culprits served up yet another dud in a season full of them.

Rasmus Højlund was completely out of his depth up front. The Danish striker had by far the worst performance of everyone to step onto the field at Old Trafford. Having been signed for the astonishingly high transfer fee of €75 million - one which even at the time was widely regarded as an overpay by a large margin - Højlund has not even come close to living up to his price tag. To say that Højlund has been dismal this season would be unjust - unjustly generous to Højlund, that is. At this point, the only thing that would likely keep Højlund in the red half of Manchester next season is sunk-cost fallacy.

The controversy surrounding Jadon Sancho has also destabilized the team. Once heralded as one of the most promising young talents in world football, Sancho has since revealed himself to be a head case with more red flags than there are literal ones during his club's home matches. While his ensuing fallout with head coach Erik ten Hag has resulted in the London-born winger's exclusion from even being considered for selection, it's obvious that the many incidents that have led up to this point have thrown off the atmosphere within the team and served as an unwelcome distraction.

While it may be true that United have been dealing with injuries suffered by multiple key players, their lack of depth has clearly been exposed. At the moment, ten Hag is clearly unsure over who to play in the absence of certain regular starters - and understandably so. United have to be one of the clubs which have the largest skill gaps between starters and backups. This is something which could easily have been addressed in the off-season if not for the club's exceptionally strange decisions to shell out such huge amounts to land Højlund and Mason Mount.

The issue for United right now is that there doesn't seem to be a single change which would get them out of this rut. Sell Højlund? Fire ten Hag? Bring in backups in January? Sign a new starting winger? Maybe even a tactical overhaul? While any of those options would be understandable, all would serve as no more than a quick fix. Even if the Glazers do finally choose to sell the club, United's would-be new owner would have quite the puzzle to solve - there would be no guarantee that a solution would be on the horizon even then.

Over the last few seasons, again and again Manchester United have seemed so close to finally taking steps forward and at least becoming consistently competitive once again - only to slip backwards before too long. There just doesn't seem to be an actionable plan to give them that push which re-establishes them as top-four Premier League staples; they have finished there in consecutive seasons just once in the past decade. United clearly understand that there is a major problem; however, they can't even define it, much less plan to solve it - and that's what has been causing so many problems there in recent years.

Sunday, December 10, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 287: "Lightning in a Bottle" Has Fizzled Out

The 2022-23 season was one which everyone associated with Napoli will never forget. Snapping a 33-year Serie A title drought, Gli Azzurri claimed the Scudetto in utterly dominant fashion. The Campanian club won the league by a staggering 16-point margin over Lazio, while players such as Khvicha Kvaratshkelia, Kim Min-jae, Frank Anguissa, and most notably of all, league top scorer and player of the year Victor Osimhen all had breakout seasons, putting them firmly in the spotlight heading into the off-season.

Napoli's dismal Serie A campaign continued after succumbing to a 1-0 away loss against arch-rivals Juventus. It was Napoli's third loss in their last four league matches. What made this loss even more of an indictment on Napoli's season thus far is the fact that they had 67% of the possession and dictated the flow of the match almost from opening kick-off. Despite this, they somehow only managed to muster one shot on target and ultimately left with nothing following Federico Gatti's 51st-minute goal.

Though it's impossible to pinpoint one singular factor as the main cause underpinning Napoli's struggles this season, there have been several which have taken a cumulative toll on the club. One of them has to be the internal instability caused over Osimhen's future at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Following Osimhen's spectacular 2022-23 season, the Nigerian striker was subsequently linked with moves to clubs like Arsenal, Chelsea, Paris-Saint Germain, and Liverpool, but none ended up materializing. With no guarantee that Osimhen would remain at the club in 2023-24, targeting key signings over the off-season was made much more difficult.

This in turn leads to the point about the players they did sign. Napoli spent over €100 million to add seven players to their roster, of which two were immediately loaned out. Despite this large expenditure, however, except for Giacomo Raspadori, none of their signings have thus far moved the needle in any notable way. To add to this, Bayern Munich signed centre-back Kim for €50 million; he has since become a mainstay of the starting 11 at the Allianz Arena. Napoli, on the other hand, attempted to shore up the defense with the addition of Natan from Red Bull Bragantino; he has largely underwhelmed during his first few months at Napoli.

Napoli's success last season could also have contributed to their current struggles in two ways. It could be that they became somewhat complacent following one of the most dominant league title victories in recent memory. Napoli's decline this season could also be the result of struggling under the weight of their newfound expectations - perhaps finding it difficult to be the chased instead of the chaser for the first time.

This brings up another question: what's the plan for Napoli moving forward? While there have been transfer rumours surrounding the possibility of players such as Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Quinten Timber, and Arnau Martínez signing for Napoli in January, none are likely to be the catalyst that swings the race for a top-four spot and a Champions League berth in Napoli's favour. That being said, there is one player with whom Napoli have been linked who could play a key role should they land him: 20-year-old centre-back Giorgio Scalvini. However, Napoli would likely have to fend off interest from clubs such as Bayern Munich, Manchester United, and Manchester City to land one of Serie A's most promising young prospects.

It may also be time for Napoli to reconsider who the player they should build around really is. It might very well be the case that Osimhen turns out to be just one of many "one-season wonders" - and that Kvaratshkelia is the true club cornerstone for the future. At just 22, the Georgian winger's ceiling is more than a match for that of just about anyone not named Bellingham, Haaland, or Mbappé. Unlike Osimhen - and indeed, almost all of his teammates - Kvaratshkelia has actually improved instead of regressing this season, becoming a rare bright spot in a difficult campaign.

There were never any guarantees that Napoli's fortunes in 2023-24 would even come close to the iconic season they had before it. That said, very few thought they'd struggle quite like this. The "lightning in a bottle" they captured a year ago has almost completely disappeared.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 286: This Is Where They Really Stand

If ever anyone had any questions about how large the skill gap between Europe's strongest domestic football leagues and the rest really was, those questions were undoubtedly put to rest following one fixture in this penultimate Champions League group stage matchday.

Benfica, who had already been eliminated from the tournament, blew a 3-0 half-time lead to finish with a 3-3 draw against Inter Milan. João Mário's hat-trick within the first 34 minutes was only good enough to give the Lisbon club a share of the points, as six minutes after the break Marko Arnautović reduced the gap before Davide Frattesi added another for Inter soon after. In the 72nd minute, veteran striker Alexis Sánchez equalized from the penalty spot following Nicolás Otamendi's foul on Inter substitute Marcus Thuram. Benfica's chances of victory were all but ended four minutes from the end of regulation time when they lost centre-back António Silva to a VAR-aided red card.

The reigning Primeira Liga champions, Benfica have established themselves as something of a Champions League overperformer in recent season. The Lisbon club have reached the tournament's quarterfinals in both of the past two seasons and have advanced from the group stage four times since the 2015-16 season - an impressive set of results given that this is a team which hasn't been battle-tested against truly elite teams domestically.

However, in some ways it was exactly that very lack of high-quality opposition which came back to haunt them against Inter. Despite having won nine of their first 11 league matches, Benfica play in the Primeira Liga, not in one of Europe's four major football leagues. Inter, on the other hand, have to play against Juventus, Napoli, and cross-town rivals AC Milan twice or more every season. While Sporting CP and Porto are no slouches themselves, they're certainly not up to the standard of the top teams from Italy, Germany, England, or Spain.

It's more than likely that a team from a stronger league would have held on to the large half-time lead that Benfica had instead of completely crumbling after the interval. There's something to be said about forging that "big-game mentality" in the furnace of a competitive domestic league. Though it may have been by no fault of their own, Benfica have not had the chance to do so - and that has been evident throughout this Champions League campaign.

When Benfica were drawn into Group D alongside Inter, Real Sociedad, and Red Bull Salzburg, many assumed that they would most likely qualify for the round of 16 in second place in the group. There was even an argument to be made that they had a puncher's chance of topping Group D. Instead, their draw against Inter has ended up being their only point of their campaign thus far. Now, Benfica must win their final group match against Salzburg to even finish third in the group and enter the Europa League.

The importance of playing in a highly competitive domestic league cannot be underestimated as far as Champions League performance is concerned. The prime example, of course, is Paris Saint-Germain. Despite possessing wealth far beyond that of even most other elite clubs and easing to the Ligue 1 title almost every year, PSG have never seriously threatened to win the Champions League apart from the outlier - the pandemic-afflicted 2019-20 season. The fact that in spite of their array of superstars and enormous amounts of money spent, PSG - by far the strongest team not playing in a major European league - find a way to blow it every year unless a freak world-changing event takes place (and even then they lost in the final), certainly says something.

Think of everything that was just mentioned about PSG and apply it to a club like Benfica - one which is still relatively competitive but doesn't have that kind of money. The growing skill gap between the top leagues and the rest is a major reason why we will almost certainly never again see a Champions League title go to a club outside those four powerhouse leagues.

While no one seriously believed that Benfica had a chance to win it all, their Champions League performance this season has nevertheless been tremendously underwhelming. It's a clear indictment of not only them, but the Primeira Liga and the rest of Europe's "lesser" leagues as well.

Sunday, November 26, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 285: Everything in Place for a League Title Run

The latest edition of the Derby d'Italia saw Inter Milan maintain their two-point lead at the top of Serie A following a 1-1 away draw against Juventus. Dušan Vlahović gave Juve the lead after scoring in the 27th minute, only for Lautaro Martínez to equalize for Inter just six minutes later with his 13th league goal this season. The Argentinian striker is the runaway leader in this season's Capocannoniere race; his equalizing goal extended his lead over his nearest rivals to six.

Last season, Inter's league campaign certainly did not go according to plan. Finishing in third place, 18 points behind league champions Napoli, was a significant decline from the season before when the Nerazzurri were in title contention all the way up to the very last matchday. However, it wasn't all bad for Inter; they did make a somewhat unexpected run to the Champions League final where they lost 1-0 to Manchester City.

During the off-season, Inter underwent a significant squad overhaul. Notable names who left the blue half of the San Siro between seasons included Edin Džeko, Romelu Lukaku, André Onana, and Marcelo Brozović. Although Inter didn't spend heavily over the off-season, they certainly spent wisely. For a cumulative fee of less than €60 million, Inter added players such as Yann Sommer, Benjamin Pavard, and Francesco Acerbi to their roster. On top of that, Inter even landed Marcus Thuram on a free transfer from Borussia Mönchengladbach. This is how a roster overhaul ought to be done: one involving careful, judicious spending with a view towards players who would best suit the team. Inter have done exactly that.

The next point I'll bring up is one which I briefly alluded to earlier but merits further detail: the ascension of Lautaro Martínez to genuine superstar status. Ever since his dismal performance at the 2022 World Cup in which he contributed next to nothing to Argentina's eventual triumph, the man from Buenos Aires has been on a tear. Martínez finished last season with 21 league goals, placing him second behind Napoli's Victor Osimhen. Martínez has not only picked up where he left off; he has taken the next step - one which many assumed he might never have following his underwhelming showing in Qatar.

At this point, Martínez is clearly the best striker and arguably the best player in Serie A. He is now at the level where he could be the ace who not only spearheads a serious challenge for the Scudetto, but also another deep Champions League run - and if things break in Inter's favour, there is a possibility that they might even go all the way this time around. Martínez's exploits have gone somewhat under the radar this season because of the continued outstanding play of Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Jude Bellingham; however, at the rate at which he's going, everyone will soon have to take note of what Martínez has been doing at Inter.

That being said, the match against Juve did expose certain issues which could threaten to derail Inter's season. Inter's back three was not the most convincing against their opponents from Turin. Stefan De Vrij and Matteo Darmian were outplayed by Juve's attackers almost right from opening kick-off. It was, in fact, De Vrij's error that led to Vlahović's goal. Although Inter have thus far conceded a league-low seven goals this season, their backline has nonetheless shown the occasional lapse such as that against Juve. They definitely can't afford too many more instances like those as the season progresses.

Despite having had 66% of the possession, one could also fault Inter for being somewhat passive. Inter only attempted eight shots in the entire match despite almost doubling their opponents' time with the ball. There's no point in hogging all the possession if there would be no end product. Inter quite simply have to take charge once they have possession. There wasn't enough of that against Juve.

All that being said, the signs are generally pointing in the right direction for Inter Milan. This team has established itself as the early favourite to win Serie A after building off the momentum from last season's Champions League run. Although it remains to be seen if they can keep it going, these first few months have set the tone for what appears to be a bounce-back season in the league couples with another potential deep run in continental play.

Friday, November 17, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 284: Signs of a Possible Let-Up?

The standout fixture of the most recent set of CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup qualifiers served as perfect evidence why as far as rivalry matchups are concerned, a team's form heading into the match as well as the team's outright odds to win take on a diminished importance. As is so often the case, this one came down to "who wanted it more".

Argentina lost a match for the first time since winning the 2022 World Cup after Uruguay notched a 2-0 away victory against them. Barcelona centre-back Ronald Araújo opened the scoring for La Celeste shortly before halftime. Just three minutes before the end of regulation time, Liverpool striker Darwin Núñez scored Uruguay's second to seal the victory and slice Argentina's lead atop the qualifying leaderboard to just two points.

Uruguay displayed tremendous grit and guts to end La Albiceleste's unbeaten streak of 14 matches, keeping Argentina unsettled and on the back foot from almost the opening whistle. Additionally, while this may be just one match, it does raise further questions of this Argentina team - especially with the Copa América to be played at the end of the season.

After reaching the pinnacle of international football, it would only have been natural for Argentina's form to have dipped soon after. Like all other World Cup champions, every player on that Argentina team fulfilled a lifetime goal when they defeated France in Doha to reclaim the world title after 36 years. However, there is another layer to this matter as far as this Argentina team is concerned: the manner by which they won it.

Argentina's World Cup victory last year undoubtedly ranks among the most emotionally- and sentimentally-charged victories not only in World Cup or even football history, but in sports history. Long before the squad even arrived in Qatar, there had always been an undercurrent of "win it for Lionel Messi" that served to drive the team on to greater heights. This was certainly understandable - at the time, only a World Cup victory was needed for Messi to expunge any remaining doubts and cement himself as unquestionably the greatest footballer of all time.

Of course, Messi and Argentina delivered in a climax seemingly taken directly from a sports movie. However, after the tournament's end, one might have wondered about the victory's effects on the players' psyches. The physical exertions of the tournament aside, the sheer mental and emotional drain such a win could have had on the team might have led Argentina to have come out flat in the matches immediately following the World Cup.

This initially appeared not to be the case. Prior to this Uruguay match, Argentina did not lose any of their eight matches since the World Cup. That being said, it had to be noted that in the qualifiers for the next World Cup, Argentina's most difficult matches were yet to come - starting with this match against Uruguay at La Bombonera. Argentina's next match will also be against an arch-rival: next up for them is Brazil away next week.

Going back to the Uruguay match, what stood out most negatively for Argentina was the fact that they were outworked and out-hustled. This is particularly damning given the fact that this was a rivalry match-up - the type of match which one would expect players to enter the field full of vigour, passion, and energy. None of those words described Argentina in this match - and one has to wonder: could this be the first sign of the post-World Cup let-up? The upcoming match against Brazil will surely answer a lot of questions.

If Argentina once again drop points against Brazil after being a step behind from kick-off, serious doubts have to be cast over their Copa chances in half a year's time. While they would not be the first team to have ever experienced a decline after winning the World Cup, to see it happen in this way would certainly be eye-opening.

Of course, to outright dismiss Argentina's prospects going forward would be foolish indeed. That being said, the match against Uruguay proves that the cracks may be starting to show themselves. More performances like that - which would not even be all that unrealistic - would not bode well for their chances of defending their continental title.

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 283: On the Cusp of a New Low

Ever since Paris Saint-Germain's takeover by Qatar Sports Investments in 2011, their Champions League campaigns have invariably ended in failure - and often in spectacular and shocking fashion to boot. This season, PSG might somehow manage to top themselves once again.

After a 2-1 Champions League group stage loss against AC Milan, PSG find themselves in a precarious spot with regard to qualification for the round of 16. Centre-back Milan Škriniar opened the scoring for PSG in the ninth minute before Rafael Leão scored the Rossoneri's equalizer just three minutes later. Shortly after the half-time break, Olivier Giroud's goal clinched all three points for Milan, whose victory kept them firmly in contention for a place in the last 16.

While PSG are still in second place in Group F behind Borussia Dortmund, they could realistically fail to qualify for the round of 16 and slip into the Europa League or even be eliminated from continental play altogether. PSG have six points with two matches remaining - just one point ahead of Milan and two ahead of Newcastle United.

In spite of their unprecedented run of Champions League knockout stage futility, at the very least PSG have never failed to qualify for it ever since the Qatari acquisition. This might very well change this season. Having been drawn in this season's Group of Death, PSG are arguably just as likely to lose their last two group stage matches as they are to win them. Such a turn of events would eliminate PSG from the tournament - and given their track record, this certainly cannot be ruled out.

As has always been the case, PSG spent an enormous amount of money on transfers during the off-season. The Parisian club added players including Manuel Ugarte, Lucas Hernandez, Ousmane Dembélé, and Randal Kolo Muani; Gonçalo Ramos also arrived at the Parc des Princes by way of a loan deal from Benfica. What must also be noted, however, is the myriad of exits from the club. PSG attempted to undergo a full-scale overhaul in just one off-season after Neymar, Lionel Messi, Marco Verratti, Sergio Ramos, Julian Draxler, and countless others left the club while new signing Xavi Simons went to RB Leipzig on loan - where he has emerged as a star in the making.

With so many squad changes over such a short time period, some team chemistry issues were naturally to have been expected - but not many could have anticipated it to have been on this level. Throughout this Champions League group stage, PSG have often looked disjointed and incoherent. They have often played more like 11 individuals than one unit - this was once again apparent against Milan.

In a post-match interview, PSG midfielder Vitinha noted that PSG allowed Milan to dictate the tempo of the match, especially in the second half. This has been a common theme of PSG's matches this season - in particular when playing as the away team. What really doesn't help PSG is the fact that their last group-stage match is against Dortmund away. PSG will come face-to-face with the iconic "Yellow Wall" - arguably the most intimidating home stand in world football. Couple that with PSG's propensity for choking under pressure and you have a seemingly shocking elimination waiting to happen.

It would, of course, be a fool's errand to completely write PSG off at this point. On their day they are more than capable of out-talenting any other team on the planet, let alone in this group. They also have by far the group's best player in Kylian Mbappé. On paper, one would expect them to live up to their billing, win out, and top the group.

Yet, it has always felt as though PSG are a step away from disaster - and this has perhaps never felt more true as it does now. The biggest issue at this club goes beyond any player, coach, or even owner - it's a systemic issue. For all their money and their glamorous exterior, PSG fear the spotlight and regardless of personnel have invariably shrunk when the time has come to step up.

If Paris Saint-Germain do get knocked out of the Champions League in the group stage, do not be surprised if they once again attempt an overhaul next off-season - only for it to once again amount to nothing.

Sunday, November 5, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 282: Another Failure to Seize the Moment

This season could easily have been so different for Borussia Dortmund.

Having come closer to a first Bundesliga title in 11 years last season than at any point since - only being denied in the season's final minutes by a goal scored by Bayern Munich midfielder Jamal Musiala - Dortmund could easily have built off that season's momentum, especially their resurgence in the back half of the campaign, to mount another serious league title challenge in 2023-24.

Even after selling superstar midfielder Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid for €103 million, Dortmund were now equipped with a sudden infusion of money which in turn could have bankrolled key signings that would've fuelled a title push. Instead, Dortmund not only did not make any signings that particularly moved the needle; they also did not even come close to using all of the money with which the Bellingham transfer provided them. Felix Nmecha and Marcel Sabitzer, while not scrubs by any means, are nowhere near the level needed to take Die Schwarzgelbe to the next level while Niclas Füllkrug has regressed sharply just one season after being the league's top scorer.

For this as well as several other reasons, Dortmund's 4-0 trouncing at Bayern's hands in the latest edition of Der Klassiker cannot be completely dismissed as a one-off. Harry Kane, Bayern's own big-money off-season signing, continued his molten-hot start to the season by netting a hat-trick. The English striker's three goals took his league tally to the season to a staggering 15 after just 10 matches. Although only about a quarter of the season has passed, it now seems evident that Dortmund do not have what it takes to bring the Bundesliga trophy to Signal Iduna Park this season.

The lack of proper investment over the off-season was not the only issue that made itself evident in Dortmund's crushing loss. For many seasons now, it seems as though Dortmund themselves do not believe that they can actually beat Bayern. This has held true even when players like Bellingham and Erling Haaland played for the club. Time and again, Dortmund have come up short when the pressure has been at its greatest and the stakes have been highest.

Ever since Jürgen Klopp left the Dortmund dugout in 2015 for Liverpool, this "championship mentality" has been conspicuously missing at Dortmund - especially when playing in Der Klassiker. From the beginning of the 2017-18 season to today, Dortmund have played in 13 Bundesliga editions of Der Klassiker. In those 13 matches, they have won just once and drawn just once. The other 11 were all losses. Over those same 13 matches, Dortmund have scored 15 goals while conceding 44 - a statistic which is such an outlier it scarcely seems believable.

This also brings up another pertinent question: what exactly is the end target for Dortmund? Not just for this season - for the next several seasons to come as well. Are they truly willing to settle for being a mere "pipeline club" known for churning out young talent and sending them to top clubs until the next superstar on the level of Bellingham or Haaland turns up? Though they may claim to be in it for the silverware, their actions and subsequent results tell a different story entirely.

On top of all of this, Dortmund are now at heightened risk of losing three more promising youngsters sooner than they'd have liked - Karim Adeyemi, Youssoufa Moukoko, and Giovanni Reyna. One wonders how much longer the three of them would be willing to put up with this and instead head for a club which truly believes in its ability to win big matches and trophies.

Even if Dortmund strengthens the squad by acquiring new players in January, that's not likely to make as much of a difference as one might initially assume. What's been going on at Dortmund goes beyond any individual player - just ask Bellingham or Haaland, for example. Dortmund's consistent failure to step up under pressure is a systemic issue from the top and all the way down. At this point, not even a DFB-Pokal win is likely - even after Bayern's shock elimination against Saarbrucken in the round of 32.

At this point, the question "what's next for Borussia Dortmund?" almost seems pointless. Unless something radically changes, it's likely to be more of the same for at least several more years to come.

Thursday, October 26, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 281: No Skipping Steps

The group stage of this season's Champions League is now halfway done. As many might have expected, Group G, the tournament's "Group of Death", is no closer to a resolution after the third slate of matches.

Newcastle United missed the opportunity to go top of the group after succumbing to a 1-0 loss against Borussia Dortmund. A match that could have easily gone either way was decided by a Felix Nmecha goal shortly before half-time. The result also kept Dortmund firmly in contention for a spot in the last 16; they are now in second place in the group. A loss would have put them in last place, six points behind Newcastle.

At the beginning of this season, to say that Newcastle had big dreams would have been a severe understatement. Ever since being acquired by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia in October 2021, the Magpies have gone from strength to strength. The large amounts of oil money invested in the club bore results in short order - last season, the Tyneside club finished fourth in the Premier League. It was their best league finish in 20 years and earned them their first Champions League berth since then.

During the off-season, Newcastle didn't ease up on the spending at all. The club paid a total of £134 million to sign players including Harvey Barnes, Tino Livramento, and most notably of all, defensive midfielder Sandro Tonali for a fee of £55 million - an eye-popping sum given Tonali's position.

It was therefore understandable that Newcastle and their fans entered the 2023-24 season full of enthusiasm and optimism - perhaps a Premier League title challenge, a deep FA Cup run, and maybe even a deep Champions League run could have been on the cards. However, this season to date has been nothing short of a reality check for Newcastle.

Newcastle are currently in sixth place in the Premier League, seven points behind early leaders Tottenham Hotspur. Although it may still be early in the season, this suggests that Newcastle are not yet ready to be serious title contenders. A group-stage Champions League exit would certainly not be a good look either.

At this point, the most important thing for Newcastle to keep in mind is to avoid the temptation of "taking a shortcut" to the top. Even Manchester City and their immense wealth didn't skip steps on their road to becoming an elite club. Although Khaldoon Al Mubarak acquired City at the beginning of the 2008-09 season, it would not be until the 2010-11 season when the Citizens qualified for the Champions League for the first time. The next season, they won the Premier League title for the first time in 44 years and the rest, as they say, is history.

On the opposite end of the scale, the quintessential cautionary tale has to be Málaga. Abdullah Al Thani's acquisition of the Andalusian club led to a first-ever Champions League qualification by finishing fourth in La Liga in the 2011-12 season. This was followed by a run to the Champions League quarter-finals; at this point it seemed as though Málaga were on the verge of a true breakout. Instead, the opposite happened. Having made their way up in a fundamentally unsound manner, it didn't take long for the whole thing to come crashing down. Los Blanquiazules were relegated at the end of the 2017-18 season and again in 2022-23; they now play in the Primera Federación.

If Newcastle are to be here to stay, they must not act in haste in the upcoming January transfer window. This is a process that can't be forced; attempting to do so can and will ruin a club no matter how rich it may be. Restraint in January with just one or two key signings, none being for major money, at positions of need is likely the way forward for Newcastle.

Being a club with plenty of money, especially oil money from a foreign government, is not as simple as "spend money, buy players, win trophies". Newcastle United are finding that out right now. It might not be this year, but with the right moves it might not be too long before silverware returns to St. James' Park for the first time in almost three-quarters of a century.

Monday, October 23, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 280: Back Out of the Wilderness

Over the past few seasons, Juventus have certainly been through the wringer. The club's decision to inexplicably fire then-head coach Maurizio Sarri at the end of the 2019-20 season despite winning a ninth consecutive Serie A title led to a downward spiral that saw the Turin club end up not even being close to title contention for the next three seasons.

Away from the field, Juve's issues have been even more dire. Last season, the club's financial violations incurred a 10-point penalty that saw the Bianconeri slip to seventh in the league. Earlier that season, the club's board of directors, including chairman Andrea Agnelli and vice-chairman Pavel Nedvěd, resigned en masse following the Plusvalenza scandal involving capital gains and false accounting violations.

It therefore came as no surprise when Juve were unable to attract any major names to the Allianz Stadium this past off-season. Juve's most notable acquisitions were Timothy Weah, who was signed for €10.3 million, as well as his fellow American Weston McKennie who returned from a loan stint at Leeds United. Understandably, expectations were somewhat tempered as the season got underway.

Even more adversity recently came Juve's way with the suspensions of midfielders Nicolò Fagioli and Paul Pogba. Fagioli received a seven-month suspension after having been found guilty of violating betting rules while Pogba has been provisionally suspended after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. While neither have been among Juve's key players this season, these incidents could potentially end up destabilizing the team if not handled adequately.

However, it now appears that Juve are once again bona fide Serie A title contenders. Their 1-0 away victory against AC Milan kept them just two points behind league leaders Inter Milan. Manuel Locatelli scored the only goal of the match in the second half as Juve took advantage of a first-half red card issued to Milan centre-back Malick Thiaw following an ill-advised tackle attempt on Moise Kean.

Perhaps the primary reason behind Juve's much-improved performance thus far this season has been their tactical shift. Juve currently field a 3-5-2 formation with one of the two up front not being a classic centre-forward; usually either Kean or Federico Chiesa. This setup has afforded Juve more freedom and space up front in comparison to last season. Massimiliano Allegri's team have displayed an edge in the final third that had largely been absent for the majority of the last two to three years. Despite having less possession, Juve did far more with it than Milan did. On another day, Juve could have won by more than one goal.

Juve's depth was also clearly shown in this match. Chiesa and Dušan Vlahović both came off the bench as both had recently sustained injuries. Daniele Rugani, meanwhile, started at centre-back in place of the injured Danilo, while Andrea Cambiaso played just 35 second-half minutes. Despite these changes to their regular starting line-up, Juve didn't miss a beat as, assisted by excellent performances in midfield by Manuel Locatelli and Adrien Rabiot, the backups proved more than capable. This will undoubtedly serve Juve well as they attempt to reclaim the Scudetto. The league campaign of 38 matches can only be described as a grins, so in what will likely be a title race which will go down to the wire, every extra bit of depth helps.

If there was any element of Juve's performance against Milan which could come in for criticism, it would have to be their general decision-making after Milan were reduced to 10 men. In a post-match interview, Allegri lamented his team's over-reliance on making passes in tight channels as well as their frequent attempts to take on opposing players in one-on-one situations as these caused Juve's play to become somewhat forced and stilted. Nevertheless, the general vibes surrounding Juve right now are mostly positive - something which hasn't been the case for more than a little while now.

At this point, Juventus have to be taken seriously as potential Serie A title contenders. This is a team which evidently came into this season vastly underrated but have begun to make other teams take notice. Although Allegri himself has downplayed Juve's chances of claiming a record-extending 37th Scudetto, the way things are going, he might soon want to revisit that statement.

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 279: An Abrupt End to a Legendary Career

After a career spanning three clubs and almost 16 years, one of the greatest players of this era has hung it up.

On Tuesday, Real Madrid winger Eden Hazard announced his retirement via an Instagram post. At just 32 years old, Hazard is much younger than most other players would be at the time of their respective retirements. However, to say that this was an unexpected announcement would clearly be incorrect. Ever since joining Real in 2019, the Belgian had been battling a series of severe injuries which restricted him to just 76 matches over all competitions during his four years in the Spanish capital.

The fact that Hazard has gone out with a whimper rather than a bang has caused him to have become seriously underrated by many. The story of Hazard's football career goes all the way back to his time at Lille, where at just 18 he was already a regular starter. It wasn't long before Hazard established himself as more than just a promising young talent - such was the potential that Hazard showed that by 2011, a 20-year-old Hazard was hyped as a generational prospect who would be likely to become one of the all-time greats. By the end of the 2010-11 season, Hazard was already a two-time Ligue 1 Young Player of the Year as well as the Player of the Year that same season. Most importantly, he spearheaded Lille's first domestic league title in 57 years.

All of that was just a taste of what was to come. In his breakout season of 2011-12, Hazard absolutely dominated the league, scoring 20 goals en route to another Ligue 1 Player of the Year honour. That off-season, he was by far the most coveted player in any transfer window in years. Hazard eventually signed for Chelsea for what was in hindsight a remarkably low transfer fee of €35 million. To say that the expectations placed on Hazard were through the roof at this point would be a gross understatement.

Things started well for Hazard at Stamford Bridge. A PFA Young Player of the Year award in 2013-14 was followed by one of the greatest individual seasons in recent memory. Hazard put together a year for the ages to lead Chelsea to a dominant Premier League title victory. Hazard, as expected, won the Premier League Player of the Season award and even had a puncher's chance at the Ballon d'Or - a remarkable feat in the era of prime Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.

From that high point, however, things began to go sour. Chelsea would finish just 10th in the league the next season - a campaign notable for the first protracted slump of Hazard's career. Chelsea did bounce back the following season by winning the league after the addition of legendary defensive midfielder N'Golo Kanté; however, this would prove to be the outlier of the back half of Hazard's Chelsea stint. Questionable signings, unnecessary coach firings and hirings, departures of players who would go on to be stars elsewhere, and general mismanagement essentially wasted most of Hazard's last four years at Chelsea - culminating in his departure to the Bernabéu in 2019.

It was never supposed to have ended like this for Hazard. His €100 million signing by Real ought to have sealed his legacy in the modern-day pantheon once and for all. But of course, "Father Time is undefeated" - and in fact, Hazard's standout play as a youngster ended up giving Father Time a head start.

Every now again, a player comes along who puts together a tremendous career full of highlights and honours - and yet somehow still falls short of the hype. While that certainly describes Eden Michael Walter Hazard, that must also never detract from the following:

The second-greatest player to ever come out of Belgium even amidst its Golden Generation. Arguably the best to ever suit up for Chelsea. The Eden Hazard Sweepstakes of 2012. The 2014-15 season. His outstanding play at the 2018 World Cup. The countless defenders left chasing shadows behind his otherworldly dribbling and once-searing speed. And though his powers had long been diminished by then, his moment of ultimate catharsis when Real won the 2022 Champions League.

Most importantly of all, when telling the story of world football in the 2010s, Eden Hazard's name will appear again and again.

Wednesday, October 4, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 278: "Limitless Potential" Is an Understatement

Ordinarily, most would not consider a transfer fee of €103 million to be well below what would be deemed adequate. However, this has been exactly the case at Real Madrid - a fact once again on display in their recent Champions League match against Napoli.

Off-season signing Jude Bellingham continued his remarkable run of form, scoring a spectacular solo goal and providing an assist to lead Real to a 3-2 victory over Napoli. Leo Østigård opened the scoring for Napoli in the 17th minute, but it would not be long until Bellingham took over. In a seven-minute first-half span, Bellingham set up Vinícius Júnior's equalizing goal before leaving the Napoli defense in his dust to add another standout moment to his burgeoning highlight reel. After the break, Victor Osimhen earned a penalty for Napoli which Piotr Zieliński converted, only for Los Merengues to claim all three points following Alex Meret's own goal from Federico Valverde's shot.

Even at this early stage of the season, it's becoming difficult to continue listing superlatives to describe Bellingham's play. Although he had already had a breakout campaign at Borussia Dortmund last season while also making a major impact for England at the 2022 World Cup, almost no one - not even many of the staunchest Dortmund fans (myself included) could have seen Bellingham's ascension coming. In just one off-season, the young man from the West Midlands has gone from being a promising young talent to arguably the best player on the planet - and this at the age of just 20.

There are many clubs who could have afforded to sign Bellingham this past off-season. A fee of €103 million is well within the means of most of Europe's top clubs. Additionally and more importantly, Bellingham is the type of player around whom a club should absolutely build its transfer window strategy. If there were ever a player about whom it could be said "forget our transfer plan. We have to sign him", Bellingham is unquestionably one of them. Real did so and are now reaping the rewards.

Bellingham has shattered every expectation thrust upon him. When he arrived at the Santiago Bernabéu, most expected him to be an important contributor to the team. However, if one had said "he will be far and away their best player from day one", almost nobody would have believed that person. Yet, this is exactly what has happened.

Despite still being at this nascent stage of his career, Bellingham already ranks among the world's best central midfielders in each of the following areas: playmaking, finishing, dribbling, through balls, and general technical skill. Even his defensive skills are at the very least above average. When Bellingham signed for Real, he chose to wear the #5 jersey in honour of the player he idolized: Zinedine Zidane. This statement would have sounded blasphemous just six months ago but now might actually be somewhat plausible: "Jude Bellingham's ceiling might rival Zidane's."

I will go a step further - there is a realistic possibility that Bellingham might win the 2024 Ballon d'Or and break Ronaldo Nazário's record as the youngest to ever claim the honour. At the moment, most power rankings have him third behind Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé; however, there's still a lot of the season to be played. If Real go on to win the Champions League for a record-extending 15th time and the second time in three seasons, Bellingham would likely be in prime position to capture the first Ballon d'Or by an Englishman since Michael Owen won it in 2001. This would especially be the case if Real were to beat Haaland's Manchester City, Mbappé's Paris Saint-Germain, or both en route to the title.

Barring anything truly calamitous, Jude Bellingham has a glittering future ahead of him. Ballon d'Or titles, La Liga titles, Champions Leagues - and maybe even a World Cup: all these honours await him if he continues on his current trajectory. Given the fact that Bellingham's absolute peak likely won't be seen for another five to 10 years, it boggles the mind to imagine the player he could someday become.

Real Madrid legend and perhaps England's greatest player ever in the making? Don't be surprised if Bellingham turns out to be both.

Monday, October 2, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 277: One Departure Made All the Difference

It's often said that people don't know what they've got until it's gone. In the case of Lazio, their struggles this season have been a clear representation of this adage.

During the most recent off-season, the Roman club saw their best player, Serbian midfielder Sergej Milinković-Savić, leave the Stadio Olimpico for a lucrative pay cheque in Saudi Arabia. Al Hilal signed Milinković-Savić for €40 million. The impact of his departure has been obvious - despite having used that same money to fund several other signings, Lazio are nowhere near the team that finished second in Serie A last season - their best result since winning the league in the 1999-2000 season.

Lazio's struggles continued in their league match against AC Milan. The Biancocelesti were by and large no threat to Milan and went down rather tamely. Goals scored by Christian Pulisic and Noah Okafor clinched Milan's third consecutive league victory. The result also left Lazio in 15th place with just seven points thus far - 11 points behind league leaders Inter Milan after seven matchdays.

It's obvious that Lazio would not have been in this predicament had Milinković-Savić still been on board. Their current midfield rotation is just not cutting it. Loan acquisition Matteo Guendouzi looks out of his depth thus far, while the likes of Luis Alberto, Nicolò Rovella, and Danilo Cataldi, while all decent players, do not even come close to significantly moving the needle.

The absence of Milinković-Savić was keenly felt in the match against Milan. Every member of the starting Lazio midfield trio was easily outplayed by their counterparts in red and black. Milan's superiority in midfield went on to serve as their foundation for victory; additionally, Guendouzi has to be singled out for a particularly poor performance - and not for the first time this season.

Milinković-Savić was the driving force behind Lazio's recent success during the club's most successful period since the turn of the century. His impressive versatility, playmaking skills, defensive capabilities, and physicality and athleticism made him one of Serie A's best midfielder and a player once coveted by many of Europe's leading clubs including Milan, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United, and Arsenal over the course of his eight-year tenure at Lazio.

On top of this, Lazio have been even further hamstrung by Milinković-Savić's relatively low transfer fee. At 28, he still has four or five good years left in him and could easily have gone for €55 million or €60 million. Certainly, leaving money on the table when it comes to transfers like this is not the way to challenge for a top-four spot.

While it is unlikely that Lazio will remain this far down the Serie A table for too long, they will probably find it very difficult to make their way back into the chase for a top-four spot and a place in next season's Champions League. Players of Milinković-Savić's calibre don't end up at clubs like Lazio all that often. Based on what has been seen so far, it does not seem particularly likely that Lazio will even be able to qualify for any continental tournament, let alone the Champions League.

Not even the prospect of the upcoming transfer window in January is likely to change Lazio's fortunes. Lazio have never been a club able to attract many top players in the transfer window. Players on the level of Milinković-Savić don't come around all that often anymore - this club has fallen a long way from the glory days when legends like Pavel Nedvěd, Alessandro Nesta, Diego Simeone, Marcelo Salas, and Siniša Mihajlović donned the sky blue and white. More than likely, Lazio will come up empty once again.

This could even have a knock-on effect upon the man who has surely become one of the most luckless coaches in world football history: Maurizio Sarri. A final league position well down the ladder could cost Sarri his job just one year after taking Lazio to their best league finish in almost a quarter-century. Somehow, ever since leaving his hometown club of Napoli, Sarri has developed a knack of taking over right when everything begins to fall apart. It's starting to look as though his Lazio stint will be another example of such.

Although not even a quarter of the league campaign has elapsed, it really doesn't look good at Lazio - and so much of it is down to one single transfer.

Thursday, September 21, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 276: Back with a Vengeance

Despite being fresh off winning the Bundesliga title for a record-extending 11th consecutive season, last season could only be described as "tumultuous" for Bayern Munich. Most notably, the pre-season departure of legendary centre-forward Robert Lewandowski to Barcelona left a major gap within the team. Bayern then compounded this issue with the controversial, ill-advised signing of Sadio Mané from Liverpool.

Following the firing of former head coach Julian Nagelsmann and his subsequent replacement with Thomas Tuchel, Die Roten left it until almost literally the last minute to clinch the league title. Without Jamal Musiala's late winning goal against Köln, Bayern would have surrendered the league title to arch-rivals Borussia Dortmund. Additionally, Bayern were soundly beaten in the Champions League quarterfinals, losing 4-1 on aggregate to eventual champions Manchester City.

Heading into this season, Bayern knew they would have to switch things up if they were to make a genuine Champions League title challenge. The Bavarian club made many major roster changes this past off-season. A total of 20 players left Bayern including Lucas Hernandez, Mané, Benjamin Pavard, and Ryan Gravenberch. It was the money generated from these departures that bankrolled the big-money signings of Kim Min-jae from Napoli and Harry Kane from Tottenham Hotspur.

This new-look Bayern squad started their 2023-24 Champions League campaign with a 4-3 home victory over Manchester United. Bayern entered half-time with a 2-0 lead via goals scored by Leroy Sané and Serge Gnabry. United striker Rasmus Højlund and Kane traded goals shortly after the break. Casemiro scored two late goals for United to reduce the deficit, but Mathys Tel added another for Bayern in between to clinch all three points.

Although Bayern were widely expected to win this match, they nevertheless showed that they are at least close to, if not at, their level of two seasons ago. Having decisively outplayed United for the vast majority of the match, Bayern were somewhat unfortunate to win by just one goal. Bayern actually had two shots strike the post.

Bayern's revamped attack appears poised to do significant damage to opposing defenses for the rest of the season. Kane has slotted into the starting centre-forward spot seamlessly and his synergy with Musiala, Gnabry, and Sané has been obvious. Bayern have now regained that attacking punch which left with Lewandowski and had largely been missing throughout last season. The €100 million that Bayern paid Tottenham to sign Kane is quickly turning out to be money wisely spent.

Bayern's impressive depth was also clearly on display. Kingsley Coman and Tel were both highly impressive off the bench, while Matthijs de Ligt did not even enter the match. To win the Champions League, it takes more than just the superstars. This is a seriously loaded Bayern team - very much more so than last season's iteration. On this Bayern team, players like Coman, Tel, de Ligt, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Raphaël Guerreiro, and Thomas Müller - all players who would be regular starters at almost any other club - do not even receive regular playing time. With a bench unit of that calibre, Bayern are well-positioned to endure the war of attrition that is the Champions League.

That being said, almost no one would claim Bayern to be the outright favourites to win it all at the moment. Barça, City, and Real Madrid are the consensus picks in the early going. If there is any area of concern for Bayern, it would be at centre-back. Neither de Ligt nor Dayot Upamecano have been all that impressive thus far. This has been reflected in a key weakness of Bayern's this season - frequent loss of possession in threatening areas. It would not be all that surprising to see Bayern pursue a backup or even starting centre-back to be played alongside Kim during the January transfer window.

Bayern Munich have been a Champions League staple for close to two decades now. Since the 2004-05 season, Bayern have been absent from the Champions League quarterfinals on just four occasions and only twice since 2008-09 - a statistic to which they will almost certainly add this season. The real question, of course, is what will happen once they reach that point. In any case, the match against United as well as the Bundesliga victories before it have made it clear: Bayern are well and truly back.

Saturday, September 16, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 275: One and Done?

The first Derby della Madonnina of the season had an added layer of intrigue to it as both Inter Milan and AC Milan came nowhere near last season's Serie A title despite both having been pegged as favourites at the season's outset. Inter finished third in the league, 18 points behind runaway champions Napoli while their cross-town rivals finished a further two points behind.

Despite reaching the Champions League semifinals for the first time since winning it all with their legendary 2006-07 squad, Milan's dismal league campaign was something no one associated with the red half of the San Siro could have seen coming. After all, the Rossoneri had been fresh off winning their first league title in 11 years.

However, a feeble Scudetto defense which saw them finish fourth and a whopping 20 points from top spot compelled Milan to reshuffle the deck this past off-season. Bankrolled by the pricey departure of midfielder Sandro Tonali to Newcastle United, Milan spent heavily in July and August. Milan shelled out over €110 million in transfer fees to bring in seven players including Tijjani Reijnders, Christian Pulisic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and Noah Okafor; three others arrived by way of free transfers. A retooled and reloaded Milan team seemed primed to once again mount a serious title challenge.

Such ideas came to a sudden pause after this matchday's derby. Milan were utterly taken apart by Inter, losing 5-1. Inter midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan produced a dominant display, scoring two goals, registering an assist, and dictating play throughout the entire match. Milan were outclassed in every aspect of play and looked nothing like a team which was coming off a three-game league win streak.

At this point, one has to wonder if that single league title victory in the 2021-22 season will end up being the solitary high point of this era's Milan team. Despite reaching last season's Champions League semifinals, at no point during the tournament were they regarded as serious contenders to win the whole thing. Based on what was shown in the derby, Milan appear to have taken a step backwards for a second consecutive season.

Milan's performance against Inter could only be described as disjointed and out of sync. Théo Hernandez, Malick Thiaw, and Reijnders were especially dismal. Hernandez and Thiaw came nowhere close to being able to handle Inter's attacking play; Thiaw was also culpable for Inter's second goal scored by Marcus Thuram. Reijnders, along with fellow Milan midfielders Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Rade Krunić, was completely out of his depth when dealing with Inter's pressing.

Questions also have to be asked about head coach Stefano Pioli. By the end of last season, a vocal minority within the club had begin to call for his firing. After this result, those voices will only grow louder. His tactical approach often left Milan devoid of options despite having 60% of the possession. He also prioritized moving inside from the right flanks but completely failed to set up any numerical advantages, adding to the aforementioned low-quality possession.

Pioli has a tendency to out-think himself and try to get "too cute" - a negative trait which once again reared its head here. Last season, in far too many matches Pioli went with tactical approaches which flew in the face of conventional wisdom - only for them to blow up in his team's face, costing them many valuable points. He once again did so against Inter by utilizing a highly inadvisable box midfield setup; the outcome speaks for itself. At this point, one has to wonder just how many chances Pioli has left in the Milan dugout.

Milan's crushing derby loss exposed just how far they have fallen in one season and change. It doesn't get any easier from here - they have their work cut out for them in the Champions League after having been drawn into this season's Group of Death alongside Paris Saint-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, and Newcastle. Finishing dead last in the group and missing out on even the "second chance" of a Europa League spot certainly isn't out of the question.

While it's still way too early to write off AC Milan's prospects this season, the signs at this point are certainly not encouraging. Something will have to seriously change if they are to make a serious push to reclaim the Scudetto and avoid the "one-hit wonder" label.

Saturday, September 9, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 274: Their Best Chance Might Have Gone

The latest set of Euro 2024 qualifying fixtures featured a match between Ukraine and England at the Stadion Miejski. Adding to the hype behind this match was the red-hot form of Jude Bellingham, whose outstanding play at Real Madrid in his first matches as a Los Merengues player has put the entire football world on notice.

England ended up surrendering their previously perfect qualifying record with a 1-1 draw. Oleksandr Zinchenko opened the scoring for Ukraine in the 26th minute, only for Kyle Walker to equalize for the Three Lions shortly before halftime. It was the Manchester City full-back's first career goal in international play.

Most would have expected England to have had little trouble in dispatching their Eastern European opponents; however, this was certainly not the case. Despite having by far the bulk of the possession and restricting Ukraine to just two shots, England left with just a share of the points.

Although it's likely too soon to draw any solid conclusions, it would not be all that surprising were it to transpire that this current England squad, in spite of their immense talent, might already have missed the boat as far as winning a major international title is concerned. In the 2022 World Cup, England were handed a relatively easy bracket leading up to a blockbuster quarterfinal clash against arch-rivals France. England's 2-1 loss following a critical Harry Kane penalty miss saw them exit the tournament in the last eight - a hugely disappointing result given that some had tipped them as a possible contender to go all the way.

If the match against Ukraine is anything to go by, England appear to have taken a step backwards since the World Cup - this was not even close to the calibre of play needed if they are to make a serious push to win Euro 2024. The most glaring issue for England right now has to be up front. James Maddison is clearly not the long-term answer out wide, while at this point one has to wonder if Bukayo Saka is truly the sidekick that Kane needs for that additional attacking punch. To put this into perspective, France are fielding Kylian Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann; Portugal, Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leão; and Spain, Marco Asensio, Dani Olmo, and superstar in the making Lamine Yamal. What England have been putting out just won't cut it at this level.

At the moment, England appear to have too many redundancies within the team. Though last year's World Cup team was probably the most talented group that England have ever brought to a World Cup, one key element of their downfall was the fact that the skillsets of far too many players overlapped. Consider the likes of Bellingham, Jack Grealish, Mason Mount, Saka, Marcus Rashford, and Phil Foden. On paper that seems like quite the collection of players. However, on the field itself, it soon became obvious that England's level of play suffered when too many of them were playing at the same time in similar roles.

England's lack of a true starter-quality defensive midfielder has to be a cause for concern as well. Despite the large fee that Arsenal paid to sign him from West Ham, the jury is still out on whether Declan Rice is truly England's future at the position - one which has become increasingly important in the current tactical metagame.

Of course, the elephant in the room has to be addressed: Gareth Southgate. After taking over in the England dugout in 2016, Southgate's early success in the 2018 World Cup followed by his run to the Euro 2020 final seemed to put him in a solid position. However, his stock took a nosedive following the 2022 World Cup and many have developed misgivings over him. It could very well be that this is as far as he can take England and that any more time spent in the head coach's seat might end up holding England back.

It has now been almost 60 years since England last won a major international football tournament. Although they cannot completely be ruled out as potential Euro 2024 champions, the signs at the moment don't look good at all. England might really have had just that one chance and let it slip through their fingers.

Monday, September 4, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 273: Served a Reality Check

Heading into this season, sentiments were firmly positive at Union Berlin. Die Eisernen had just come off a historic Bundesliga campaign in which they finished fourth, allowing them to qualify for the UEFA Champions League for the first time in the club's history. On top of that, Union had a relatively successful off-season transfer window, signing the likes of Robin Gosens, Kevin Volland, and Diogo Leite. To cap it all off, Union even landed Italy captain Leonardo Bonucci via a free transfer after a legendary 12-year, two-part stint at Juventus.

Prior to Union's most recent match against RB Leipzig, everything seemed to have been going according to plan with one-sided victories over Mainz and Darmstadt to begin their Bundesliga season. However, in the match against Leipzig, Union were brought back down to earth with a 3-0 loss. Union never stood a chance as their opponents from Saxony dominated proceedings almost right from opening kick-off.

The scoreline arguably did not even accurately reflect how one-sided this match was; with almost twice Union's possession and 14 shots to Union's three, Leipzig could easily have won by a larger margin. That being said, as far as the scoreline itself was concerned, the turning point of the match was Volland's red card in the 65th minute. At the time, Leipzig were leading 1-0 after Xavi Simons scored a spectacular goal from just outside the penalty area shortly after the half-time break. Leipzig added the last two goals, both scored by substitute Benjamin Šeško, well after Union were reduced to 10 men.

Even at this early stage of the season, two issues have already made themselves evident within this team: defensive discipline and lack of possession. The fact that Union have had a player sent off in two of their first three league matches has to be concerning. Additionally, over those same two matches, Union have averaged just over 30% of the possession - a clip which is certainly not sustainable if they are to replicate or even surpass their impressive 2022-23 league campaign.

Some had claimed that this could be the season when Union consolidated their status as a mainstay of the top four in the Bundesliga once and for all by backing up their unprecedented Champions League qualification last season with a similar result. However, the reality of the situation is that at the moment, much like La Liga with Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atlético Madrid, the Bundesliga appears to have settled into a pattern of a clear-cut top three of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, and Leipzig. Despite having finished just four points behind Leipzig last season, this match showed that there is still a clear gap between even Dortmund and Leipzig, let alone Bayern, and the "best of the rest".

It must also be kept in mind that two of the teams which Union beat out to the Bundesliga's final Champions League qualification spot last season have themselves made significant upgrades to their rosters. Bankrolled by the lucrative transfers of Moussa Diaby and Randal Kolo Muani to Aston Villa and Paris Saint-Germain respectively, Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt both spent heavily during transfer window. Not counting players signed for undisclosed transfer fees, the two clubs combined to spend over €140 million this past off-season.

On top of that, many clubs who have qualified for the Champions League for the first time have experienced domestic league drop-offs in the very next season owing to the difficulty of juggling those two separate schedules. While on paper it appears no different to what Union have previously done with the Europa Conference League and Europa League, the Champions League is a different beast entirely. Many Champions League debutants who thought they could handle the grind ended up falling by the wayside - in continental play as well as domestically.

Having been drawn into a difficult Champions League group featuring Napoli and Real Madrid as well as being the hunted rather than the hunter for the first time in their Bundesliga history, at least as far as a top-four spot is concerned, Union Berlin certainly have their work cut out for them this season. That said, the last decade or so has seen them shatter all manner of expectations - however, only time will tell if this next one would be a step too far for now.

Sunday, August 27, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 272: La Masia Has Done It Again

Many football experts have argued that La Masia, Barcelona's legendary youth academy which has arguably produced more all-time greats than any other club's, is the world's finest pipeline of top young prospects in global football today. If the Blaugrana's recent La Liga match against Villarreal provides any indication, it appears that this iconic institution has unearthed yet another gem.

Barça fought back from a one-goal deficit in the second half to register a come-from-behind 4-3 away victory over Villarreal. The Catalan club actually had a 2-0 lead which they wound up squandering; Gavi and Frenkie de Jong each scored within a three-minute window early in the first half. Villarreal would then level the score before halftime with Juan Foyth and Alexander Sørloth finding their way onto the scoresheet. After the break, Álex Baena put Villarreal one goal ahead, but they would surrender this lead as Ferran Torres and last season's league goalscoring leader Robert Lewandowski would fill the net for Barça to clinch all three points.

Without any question, the standout player of this match was 16-year-old winger Lamine Yamal. In just his third career match in La Liga, Yamal played like a seasoned veteran. The Catalan teenager clearly ran the show in the final third. His match started with a perfect cross to set up Gavi's opening goal, a header at the far post. Yamal hassled the Villarreal defense throughout and created several chances for himself; two of his shots struck the post. The second of those shots, following a blazing run from the right flank, landed in front of Lewandowski after it hit the post; the Polish striker then cleaned up with a tap-in.

Even what would normally be regarded as the sole blemish on an otherwise spectacular performance was actually a good play. Yamal received a yellow card late in the first half, but this was the right decision because had he not fouled Alfonso Pedraza, Villarreal could easily have pushed forward, threatened a third goal, and entered half-time with all the momentum on their side.

So impressive was Yamal's performance that even some of the Villarreal fans applauded him when he was substituted for Ansu Fati. Of course, Barça head coach Xavi was effusive in his praise for the club's newest star in the making, emphasizing the fact that his status as a La Masia graduate did not entitle him to a starting spot and that even at just 16, he had earned it like every other starter on the pitch. Xavi was also particularly impressed by Yamal's decision-making, stating that he almost always chose correctly in key situations.

This match made it clear what many within the club had long known: Yamal appears to be a transcendent talent in the making. Many of today's top players did not even make their professional debuts until they were two or three years older than Yamal is now. As if that weren't enough, Yamal isn't doing this at a no-name club in a mediocre (or even worse) league. He's doing this at Barcelona - one of the most venerated clubs in world football and a perennial contender not just for La Liga, but for the Champions League as well.

It's almost difficult to wrap one's mind around Yamal's true potential. There is no better club for him to maximize his potential than Barça, where young academy talents are prioritized and Catalan identity is a focal point of the club's ethos. While his journey to the top will almost certainly not be a straight line, once he reaches his stratospheric ceiling, he would likely be a Ballon d'Or contender in almost every single year during his prime. For the next 15 years or more, defenses across Europe and beyond will certainly not be relishing a fixture against Barça.

The word "generational" is applied to promising young players way too often these days. This has the effect of cheapening the term when bestowed upon those who truly deserve the tag. However, in this case the evidence can no longer be denied: Lamine Yamal is a generational prospect - one who might just end up being the next in the illustrious line of legends to suit up at Camp Nou in that red and blue jersey.

Saturday, August 19, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 271: A Near-Total Overhaul - But for What Return?

The standout fixture of this season's opening matchday of the Bundesliga saw Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig. Heading into this season, both teams were generally deemed to be among the primary threats to end Bayern Munich's unprecedented 11-year reign as Bundesliga champions.

Leverkusen got off to a hot start, scoring two goals in an 11-minute first-half span. Jeremie Frimpong and Jonathan Tah put Leverkusen 2-0 ahead. However, just four minutes after Tah's goal, Dani Olmo pulled one back for Die Bullen. After half-time, Leverkusen's rising star Florian Wirtz restored their two-goal advantage before Loïs Openda added another to Leipzig's column. In the closing stages of the match, Openda had a golden opportunity to secure Leipzig a share of the points, but the Belgian striker somehow managed to hit the post with an open-goal tap-in.

Though this was just the first match of the season, it could nevertheless be regarded as something of a reality check for Leipzig. This was an off-season of major upheaval at the Saxony club. During the recent transfer window, Leipzig sold Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea, Dominik Szoboszlai to Liverpool, and Joško Gvardiol to Manchester City. The sales of these three players earned the club a total of €220 million. Other notable players to have recently left the Red Bull Arena include André Silva on loan to Real Sociedad, Alexander Sørloth on loan to Villarreal, and Marcel Halstenberg to Hannover 96.

Leipzig wasted absolutely no time at all in their rebuild. This same off-season, they signed seven players at a cumulative cost of €161 million and added two more on loan, one of whom was the highly-regarded Dutch midfielder Xavi Simons who is regarded as a young prospect with a tremendously high ceiling. Other acquisitions such as Openda and Austrian duo Nicolas Seiwald and Christoph Baumgartner added depth to what was beginning to look like a possible sleeper pick to win a first-ever league title in the event of a Bayern slump, similar to last season's scenario but in which no club took full advantage. Leipzig's recent 3-0 victory over Bayern in the DFL-Supercup appeared to confirm their status as such.

However, Leipzig's loss to begin their Bundesliga campaign highlighted that in spite of their many additions, this is still a flawed team. All three goals which Leipzig conceded have one thing in common: they all came off passes from out wide. Leipzig's defensive capabilities on the wings have often come under scrutiny, particularly since head coach Marco Rose favours a rather unconventional 4-2-2-2 formation. This formation packs the centre of midfield and leaves relatively little wide coverage, thus often requiring one or more midfielders to head out wide to assist the full-backs. Leipzig's current personnel have not always been up to the task, and it showed against Leverkusen.

One possible issue which seemed obvious in this match but which may resolve itself over the course of the season is team chemistry. With so many new signings, questions about how long it would take for the team to gel were always going to arise. This lack of chemistry was evident throughout the match. Several times, Leipzig appeared rather disjointed and incohesive. Except for Openda, all of Leipzig's new signings on display turned in sub-par performances on their respective club debuts - unfamiliarity with Leipzig's tactics and system is likely to be the root cause.

In reality, Leipzig's Supercup victory over Bayern was somewhat misleading despite the lop-sided scoreline. Leipzig only had 32% of the possession and were outplayed for vast swathes of the match but came out on top with all three goals - a Dani Olmo hat-trick - coming against the run of play. Obviously, it would not be sustainable to depend on such outlier results to fuel a potential Bundesliga title run.

At this point, RB Leipzig have become one of world football's staple "almost but not quite" clubs. Despite having won back-to-back DFB-Pokal titles, finished in the top four in the Bundesliga in six of the past seven seasons, and made it to the Champions League semifinals in the 2019-20 season, Leipzig have never been able to take the final step, especially in the domestic league. It's still extremely early, but the signs at the moment do not appear promising.