Thursday, October 26, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 281: No Skipping Steps

The group stage of this season's Champions League is now halfway done. As many might have expected, Group G, the tournament's "Group of Death", is no closer to a resolution after the third slate of matches.

Newcastle United missed the opportunity to go top of the group after succumbing to a 1-0 loss against Borussia Dortmund. A match that could have easily gone either way was decided by a Felix Nmecha goal shortly before half-time. The result also kept Dortmund firmly in contention for a spot in the last 16; they are now in second place in the group. A loss would have put them in last place, six points behind Newcastle.

At the beginning of this season, to say that Newcastle had big dreams would have been a severe understatement. Ever since being acquired by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia in October 2021, the Magpies have gone from strength to strength. The large amounts of oil money invested in the club bore results in short order - last season, the Tyneside club finished fourth in the Premier League. It was their best league finish in 20 years and earned them their first Champions League berth since then.

During the off-season, Newcastle didn't ease up on the spending at all. The club paid a total of £134 million to sign players including Harvey Barnes, Tino Livramento, and most notably of all, defensive midfielder Sandro Tonali for a fee of £55 million - an eye-popping sum given Tonali's position.

It was therefore understandable that Newcastle and their fans entered the 2023-24 season full of enthusiasm and optimism - perhaps a Premier League title challenge, a deep FA Cup run, and maybe even a deep Champions League run could have been on the cards. However, this season to date has been nothing short of a reality check for Newcastle.

Newcastle are currently in sixth place in the Premier League, seven points behind early leaders Tottenham Hotspur. Although it may still be early in the season, this suggests that Newcastle are not yet ready to be serious title contenders. A group-stage Champions League exit would certainly not be a good look either.

At this point, the most important thing for Newcastle to keep in mind is to avoid the temptation of "taking a shortcut" to the top. Even Manchester City and their immense wealth didn't skip steps on their road to becoming an elite club. Although Khaldoon Al Mubarak acquired City at the beginning of the 2008-09 season, it would not be until the 2010-11 season when the Citizens qualified for the Champions League for the first time. The next season, they won the Premier League title for the first time in 44 years and the rest, as they say, is history.

On the opposite end of the scale, the quintessential cautionary tale has to be Málaga. Abdullah Al Thani's acquisition of the Andalusian club led to a first-ever Champions League qualification by finishing fourth in La Liga in the 2011-12 season. This was followed by a run to the Champions League quarter-finals; at this point it seemed as though Málaga were on the verge of a true breakout. Instead, the opposite happened. Having made their way up in a fundamentally unsound manner, it didn't take long for the whole thing to come crashing down. Los Blanquiazules were relegated at the end of the 2017-18 season and again in 2022-23; they now play in the Primera Federación.

If Newcastle are to be here to stay, they must not act in haste in the upcoming January transfer window. This is a process that can't be forced; attempting to do so can and will ruin a club no matter how rich it may be. Restraint in January with just one or two key signings, none being for major money, at positions of need is likely the way forward for Newcastle.

Being a club with plenty of money, especially oil money from a foreign government, is not as simple as "spend money, buy players, win trophies". Newcastle United are finding that out right now. It might not be this year, but with the right moves it might not be too long before silverware returns to St. James' Park for the first time in almost three-quarters of a century.

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