Saturday, August 19, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 271: A Near-Total Overhaul - But for What Return?

The standout fixture of this season's opening matchday of the Bundesliga saw Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig. Heading into this season, both teams were generally deemed to be among the primary threats to end Bayern Munich's unprecedented 11-year reign as Bundesliga champions.

Leverkusen got off to a hot start, scoring two goals in an 11-minute first-half span. Jeremie Frimpong and Jonathan Tah put Leverkusen 2-0 ahead. However, just four minutes after Tah's goal, Dani Olmo pulled one back for Die Bullen. After half-time, Leverkusen's rising star Florian Wirtz restored their two-goal advantage before Loïs Openda added another to Leipzig's column. In the closing stages of the match, Openda had a golden opportunity to secure Leipzig a share of the points, but the Belgian striker somehow managed to hit the post with an open-goal tap-in.

Though this was just the first match of the season, it could nevertheless be regarded as something of a reality check for Leipzig. This was an off-season of major upheaval at the Saxony club. During the recent transfer window, Leipzig sold Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea, Dominik Szoboszlai to Liverpool, and Joško Gvardiol to Manchester City. The sales of these three players earned the club a total of €220 million. Other notable players to have recently left the Red Bull Arena include André Silva on loan to Real Sociedad, Alexander Sørloth on loan to Villarreal, and Marcel Halstenberg to Hannover 96.

Leipzig wasted absolutely no time at all in their rebuild. This same off-season, they signed seven players at a cumulative cost of €161 million and added two more on loan, one of whom was the highly-regarded Dutch midfielder Xavi Simons who is regarded as a young prospect with a tremendously high ceiling. Other acquisitions such as Openda and Austrian duo Nicolas Seiwald and Christoph Baumgartner added depth to what was beginning to look like a possible sleeper pick to win a first-ever league title in the event of a Bayern slump, similar to last season's scenario but in which no club took full advantage. Leipzig's recent 3-0 victory over Bayern in the DFL-Supercup appeared to confirm their status as such.

However, Leipzig's loss to begin their Bundesliga campaign highlighted that in spite of their many additions, this is still a flawed team. All three goals which Leipzig conceded have one thing in common: they all came off passes from out wide. Leipzig's defensive capabilities on the wings have often come under scrutiny, particularly since head coach Marco Rose favours a rather unconventional 4-2-2-2 formation. This formation packs the centre of midfield and leaves relatively little wide coverage, thus often requiring one or more midfielders to head out wide to assist the full-backs. Leipzig's current personnel have not always been up to the task, and it showed against Leverkusen.

One possible issue which seemed obvious in this match but which may resolve itself over the course of the season is team chemistry. With so many new signings, questions about how long it would take for the team to gel were always going to arise. This lack of chemistry was evident throughout the match. Several times, Leipzig appeared rather disjointed and incohesive. Except for Openda, all of Leipzig's new signings on display turned in sub-par performances on their respective club debuts - unfamiliarity with Leipzig's tactics and system is likely to be the root cause.

In reality, Leipzig's Supercup victory over Bayern was somewhat misleading despite the lop-sided scoreline. Leipzig only had 32% of the possession and were outplayed for vast swathes of the match but came out on top with all three goals - a Dani Olmo hat-trick - coming against the run of play. Obviously, it would not be sustainable to depend on such outlier results to fuel a potential Bundesliga title run.

At this point, RB Leipzig have become one of world football's staple "almost but not quite" clubs. Despite having won back-to-back DFB-Pokal titles, finished in the top four in the Bundesliga in six of the past seven seasons, and made it to the Champions League semifinals in the 2019-20 season, Leipzig have never been able to take the final step, especially in the domestic league. It's still extremely early, but the signs at the moment do not appear promising.

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