The Weekly Take, Issue 186: Time to Panic Yet?

With just one Champions League matchday remaining, Atlético Madrid find themselves at risk of not only failing to qualify for the tournament's last 16, but perhaps even missing out on the Europa League spot provided to third-placed teams in each group. This shocking turn of events is now a real possibility after Atlético lost 1-0 in a crucial Champions League group-stage match against AC Milan. Junior Messias came off the bench to score the only goal in the 87th minute.

To say that the season thus far has not gone according to plan for the reigning La Liga champions would be an understatement. They are currently fourth in the league and trail city rivals Real Madrid as well as Real Sociedad and Sevilla. There is a genuine possibility that Atlético might fail to qualify for next season's Champions League. If they were to do so, such a failure would occur for the first time since the 2011-12 season.

In the Champions League, Atlético's loss to Milan put them in last place in Group B. Their match against Porto on December 7 will prove to be decisive. Should Atlético be unable to leave Portugal with the victory, they will have been eliminated in the group stage - a stunning turn of events for a team expected to be in contention for a first Champions League title in club history.

At the beginning of this season, no one could have expected Atlético to be struggling like this. Considering the fact that Real did not significantly strengthen their squad during the off-season transfer window as well as the constant state of dysfunction which continues to plague Barcelona, Atlético were in prime position to clinch back-to-back league titles for the first time in over 70 years.

In addition, Atlético's Champions League group of Liverpool, Porto, and Milan was a group which, while deemed to be fairly difficult, was one from which Atlético were generally expected to advance to the knockout stage. Instead, they might very well be knocked out in the group stage for just the second time over the past nine seasons.

Many of Atlético's main players have undoubtedly underperformed this season. Players such as Antoine Griezmann, Ángel Correa, Stefan Savić, and most alarmingly of all, Jan Oblak have been nowhere near the levels that they reached last season. Despite being Atlético's top scorer with seven league goals, Luis Suárez's play has been inconsistent outside of his finishing. The only players who have been impressive for Atlético this season are Yannick Carrasco and José Giménez.

Atlético also jeopardized their prospects this season with an unimpressive transfer window. Of their three off-season signings, none have managed to make a significant impact; they are not particularly expected to do so, either. Their haul of Marcos Paulo, Rodrigo De Paul, and Matheus Cunha for a combined €65 million was rather underwhelming. Even their decision to bring back Griezmann for a second stint on a loan deal from Barça may have proven to be a poor one. It appears that Griezmann's best days are now permanently in the rearview mirror. He is clearly not the player he was just two to three years ago. At 30, it is unlikely that he will ever return to that level.

Of course, it cannot be forgotten that Atlético have the ultimate trump card in their corner: head coach Diego Simeone. Time and again, the Argentinean has proven his strategic genius. If there were ever to be a coach who could lead Atlético out of this predicament, it would surely be "El Cholo". For almost the entirety of his tenure at the Wanda Metropolitano, Simeone has thrived in the underdog role. It appears that he will once again have to drag Atlético out of a tough spot as they seek to turn their season around.

The next transfer window in January could be pivotal for Atlético's success during the second half of the season. An infusion of some much-needed new blood could be exactly the shake-up that Atlético need to get their season back on track.

There are teams which have achieved great success after having been in even more dire positions than Atlético's current situation, so it isn't impossible by any means for Atlético to salvage their season. However, if things do not improve soon, it might just be time to be legitimately concerned about Atlético Madrid.

The Weekly Take, Issue 185: It Was Just a False Dawn

In the lead-up to this past matchday's Premier League clash between Liverpool and Arsenal, many Arsenal fans were understandably expecting at least a respectable result. The Gunners were on an eight-match unbeaten streak in the league, winning six of those matches. After five years of general underperformance, maybe, just maybe, things were finally starting to turn for the better at the Emirates Stadium.

However, Arsenal were handed a reality check by the Reds. Liverpool utterly eviscerated Arsenal in a dominant 4-0 victory. Sadio Mané opened the scoring in the 39th minute; after the halftime break, Diogo Jota, Mohamed Salah, and Takumi Minamino added to Liverpool's margin of victory.

Arsenal were thoroughly outclassed by their opponents from the northwest in every way imaginable; this was obvious even from the opening kickoff. Despite their prior hot streak, this match clearly showed that Arsenal still have a very long way to go if they are to even think of once again becoming league title contenders. Such a status seems to be, at the very least, five years away - and even that might be generous.

Even their recent unbeaten run belies their true level. Not one of their six wins came against genuinely high-quality opposition; this fact exposes Arsenal as nothing more than "flat-track bullies". In addition, prior to those matches, Arsenal had lost three consecutive matches including a 2-0 loss against London rivals Chelsea as well a 5-0 shellacking at the hands of Manchester City. Arsenal are therefore now 0-0-3 against all three of this season's Premier League title contenders; they scored no goals and conceded a whopping 11 across those matches.

So, just what does the road ahead hold for Arsenal?

For one thing, it may be time to start scouring the market for a centre-forward. As great as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been in North London, he is now 32 and beginning to show clear signs of decline. His 10 league goals last season represented his lowest career tally in a major league apart from his first professional season in 2007-08, when he was just a teenager fresh out of AC Milan's youth academy. It was also his lowest total overall since the 2010-11 season.

The main question regarding "Auba" when he was still in his prime was always about what would happen once he ages and loses his once-explosive athleticism. While the Arsenal captain is certainly not a scrub by any means, it may be time to move on from him.

Even qualifying for next season's Champions League will be an uphill battle for Mikel Arteta's team because Arsenal have once again kneecapped themselves with yet another underwhelming transfer window. This past off-season, Arsenal spent over £140 million on new acquisitions. However, of their seven signings, the only one to have moved the needle in any notable manner has been goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale. While Ben White has been reasonably consistent at centre-back, his performances thus far have not justified his lofty price tag of £50 million. None of Arsenal's other signings have been particularly impactful thus far.

Arteta himself has to be scrutinized as well. On many occasions, he has shown himself to lack the tactical nous required to succeed as a coach at this level. Bear in mind that although he led Arsenal to the FA Cup title in his first season at the club, he did so by beating Chelsea who were then coached by the utterly incompetent Frank Lampard - someone who could be outstrategized by almost anyone.

This might actually be as good as it will get for Arsenal this season. The fact that their goal difference currently stands at -4 shows that they have been somewhat fortunate to have accumulated as many points as they have thus far. Regression to the mean could happen at any time. It is looking increasingly likely that Arsenal will fail to qualify for the Champions League for a sixth consecutive season.

If Arsenal are to become truly relevant once more, major changes are required. Everything about this club, both on the field as well as off it, evidences a club clearly in decline. While it's much too early to claim that Arsenal are on a one-way path to long-term irrelevancy, the signs do not look promising at the moment.

The Weekly Take, Issue 184: A Giant About to Fall?

The 2018 World Cup was notable for the large number of favoured teams which failed to qualify for the tournament. Teams such as Chile, the United States, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, and most shockingly of all, Italy and the Netherlands all could not make it to the quadrennial showpiece event in Russia.

Fast forward to today and the 2022 World Cup qualifiers might be on their way to claiming their first major scalp. In the latest instalment of the Clásico del Río de la Plata, one of the most iconic rivalries in international football, Argentina beat Uruguay 1-0. A seventh-minute goal scored by Ángel Di María proved to make the difference. The victory also made it almost certain that La Albiceleste would feature in next year's tournament.

Argentina's victory came largely against the run of play; they only attempted seven shots to Uruguay's 19. Uruguay also had seven corner-kick attempts to Argentina's two. However, Óscar Tabárez's team just didn't have enough to beat their arch-rivals.

Uruguay's loss puts them in a dicey situation as far as World Cup qualification is concerned. With five matches remaining, Uruguay are sixth in the 10-team CONMEBOL qualifiers. The top four teams qualify automatically, while the fifth-placed team will enter a two-legged playoff against a team from another confederation.

Not many people expected Uruguay to be where they are right now with so few matches to be played. La Celeste are currently ranked 15th according to the FIFA Rankings and have reached a semifinal and a quarterfinal over their last three World Cup appearances. However, if the qualifiers were to end today, Uruguay would shockingly be denied a spot by Chile and Colombia.

This is not a team which should be where they are right now. Bear in mind that the current Uruguay team contains players such as Diego Godín, Fernando Muslera, Lucas Torreira, Rodrigo Betancur, Martín Cáceres, and of course, legendary strikers Edinson Cavani and Luis Suárez. In addition, Tabárez, who has been Uruguay's for over 17 years spanning two stints, is one of the most accomplished coaches in international football.

The question then becomes: where is it going wrong?

Perhaps the biggest issue which plagues this Uruguay team is cohesion. Although the team of today is not necessarily much less talented than those of 2018 or 2010, Uruguay right now do not seem to be gelling in the same way that the squads of past years did. The new additions who have replaced the now-retired players, while no slouches themselves, do not always prove to be the best fits.

Players such as Torreira, Bentancur, and Federico Valverde were primarily benchwarmers at the time of the previous World Cup but have since established themselves as key players and regular starters. While it may be true that their entry into the first team represents something of a transitional phase for Uruguay, not many could have guessed that the drop-off in the team's overall cohesion would be quite this steep. This could be seen in Uruguay's results at the 2021 Copa América when they were eliminated by Colombia in the quarterfinals.

Uruguay's in-game execution is also somewhat of a cause for concern. Their propensity to make the occasional miscue has been costly in multiple matches during their qualifying campaign. This was even evident in the recent match against Argentina. It was a cheap turnover by Joaquín Piquerez which allowed Di María to score the only goal of the match.

In that same match, Uruguay's passing accuracy was just 71% - well below that of their opponents. These minor yet frequent lapses have added up, costing Uruguay matches and precious points which just might cause them to miss out on the World Cup for the first time since 2006.

On paper, most would expect Uruguay to nevertheless make it through there next few fixtures and qualify for the World Cup. However, time is running out and the CONMEBOL qualifiers are known to be the most gruelling of any confederation's. 

That said, it's still too early for Uruguay to panic, especially considering that their next four matches are against the four teams directly below them in the standings. However, if two or three of these matches pass and they still find themselves on the outside looking in, we might very well see one of the biggest casualties of these World Cup qualifiers.

The Weekly Take, Issue 183: The Potential Start of Another Deep Run

By far the most memorable season in Ajax Amsterdam's recent history was their 2018-19 campaign. In that season, Ajax embarked on a stunning underdog run to the semifinals of the Champions League. It was the club's first appearance in the final four since 1997. Ajax had to win three two-legged ties before the tournament even began in order to qualify. They then proceeded to advance to the round of 16 out of a group which include Bayern Munich, then knocked out Real Madrid and Juventus in subsequent two-legged ties before falling to Tottenham Hotspur in the semifinals.

While a repeat of that season's success might be unlikely, Ajax's Champions League performance this season have been extremely impressive. Their latest match was a 3-1 victory over Borussia Dortmund. Despite falling a goal behind after conceding a first-half penalty, Ajax fought back and scored three goals within a late 20-minute span to notch their fourth consecutive win and clinch a spot in the round of 16.

When looking at the current Ajax team, the name that clearly stands out above all others has to be Sébastien Haller. In Ajax's victory over Dortmund, the Ivorian scored his seventh Champions League goal in just four matches. In 2018-19, Haller had a breakout season at Eintracht Frankfurt, scoring 15 league goals alongside Luka Jović.

It would soon seem as though both would experience career stalls. Both players left the club in the subsequent off-season; Jović has not even been close to his previous form ever since joining Real Madrid. Similarly, Haller was never able to match his prior standard of play after he joined West Ham United. At West Ham, Haller scored just 14 goals in 54 matches over one-and-a-half seasons.

However, ever since joining Ajax in January 2021, Haller's career trajectory has only gone one way: upwards. He is scoring goals at a higher rate than he has at any prior point of his career. His seven Champions League goals thus far see him trail only the best centre-forward in the world: Bayern striker Robert Lewandowski. Haller's current Champions League form does not seem unsustainable, either: he is in excellent form domestically as well, with seven goals in 11 Eredivisie matches.

That being said, this Ajax team is about more than just Haller. Dušan Tadić and Daley Blind, two players who were crucial to Ajax's 2019 semifinal run, have remained key pieces for Ajax to this day. Tadić in particular continues to be criminally underrated despite several standout years at Ajax. The Serbian ought to be regarded as one of European football's standout playmakers.

Although many of the names which powered the iconic Ajax team of three seasons ago have since left the club, their replacements have proven to be up to the task. The likes of Ryan Gravenberch, Jurriën Timber, Noussair Mazraoui, and off-season signing Steven Berghuis have impressed many during this opening portion of the season.

Going back to the prior point about playmaking, no other club has created more goalscoring opportunities than Ajax up to this point in this season's Champions League. Ajax also rank third in possession at an average of 58.8%. This combination has served as the foundation of Ajax's Champions League success this season.

Let's also not forget that there's still the January transfer window to come. After all, it was during the most recent January window that Ajax signed Haller. With the help of one or two savvy signings, a deep Champions League run could once again be on the cards.

Another Champions League semifinal appearance might be a step too far for the current Ajax crop; however, the quarterfinals are undoubtedly in play. Since Ajax will almost certainly top Group C, they will be more likely to avoid a title contender in the round of 16. However, even if they don't, Ajax have the personnel to potentially upset one of the leading contenders; all it takes it for everything to just fall into place over 180 minutes.

After two seasons of rebuilding following many major departures, Ajax now find themselves primed for what could be another season in which they give Europe's elite a major scare. With the obvious exception of Paris Saint-Germain, they are clearly the best team from outside a major domestic league right now.

The Weekly Take, Issue 182: The Balance of Power Swings Back

It has been around a decade since the last time we could regard AC Milan as a genuinely elite team. In the time since then, they have slipped to as low as 10th in Serie A, made ill-advised signing after ill-advised signing, and hired coaches whose tenures can only be described as abject failures.

However, after many years of suffering, Milan might be in line for a first Serie A title since the 2010-11 season. The Rossoneri's 2-1 victory over Roma kept them level on points with Napoli at the top of the league. Milan only trail their rivals from Campania on goal difference. Milan managed to hang on to the victory even after Theo Hernandez received a red card; earlier goals scored by Zlatan Ibrahimović and Franck Kessié were enough to deliver Milan a 10th victory in 11 league matches.

Milan's success thus far has been built on the back of an extremely fruitful off-season. They proceeded from their second-place league finish last season by signing Mike Maignan and Olivier Giroud while also bringing in Brahim Díaz on loan from Real Madrid. Additionally, they made Fikayo Tomori and Sandro Tonali full-time Milan players; prior to this season, they had been there on loan.

Unlike those of previous seasons, the new arrivals at the San Siro fit seamlessly into the team structure. Tomori started the match against Roma while Tonali and Giroud entered proceedings as substitutes; regardless, all three once again showed that the club undoubtedly made the right decision to sign them. Tomori's signing for €28.5 million from Chelsea did initially raise some eyebrows as the English defender had not made much of an impact during his time at the London club. However, it is now obvious that Milan signed Tomori at the perfect time - right as he was about to emerge as a player worthy of being a starter on a league title contender.

In total, Milan spent €74.9 million on new signings this past off-season - not a massive amount when one considers the fact that they brought in 13 players either permanently or on loan.

Another factor which makes Milan's success thus far even more remarkable is the departure of goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. At just 22, Donnarumma was already Milan's best player when he left the club to sign for Paris Saint-Germain as a free agent. Despite this, Milan have retooled so well that they are obviously far better this season than last. Even in goal, Milan's signing of Maignan has been enough to keep things moving along smoothly. On top of that, Maignan's recent wrist injury forced second-choice goalkeeper Ciprian Tătăruşanu to take over as the starter. Even that has not stalled their title chase in the slightest.

Head coach Stefano Pioli also deserves tremendous credit. When he arrived at the club in 2019, Milan had not qualified for the Champions League in six years. Their most recent title had been the 2011 Scudetto. Since taking over at Milan, Pioli has completely transformed this team. The evidence of the excellent job he has done can be seen in last season's results. Milan's 2020-21 league campaign was their best in nine years despite having a team which most would have expected to finish ahead of Juventus, Napoli, or Roma, among others.

On top of that, this is a young Milan team with plenty of room for growth. Many of their key pieces such as Tonali, Díaz, Rafael Leão, and Kessié are under the age of 25. With another savvy signing or two, do not be surprised if Milan are a legitimate Champions League contender within the next two or three seasons.

The off-season departures of former head coach Antonio Conte and superstar centre-forward Romelu Lukaku from Inter Milan once again made AC Milan the stronger of the two Milan clubs - a position they had not occupied for many years. However, now that a power vacuum exists at the top of Serie A following the respective declines of Inter and Juve, the opportunity for AC Milan is ripe for the picking.

Nevertheless, regardless of how this season ends, the balance of power in the city of Milan has decisively swung back to the red and black half - and it may remain there for quite some time, too.