The 2018 World Cup was notable for the large number of favoured teams which failed to qualify for the tournament. Teams such as Chile, the United States, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, and most shockingly of all, Italy and the Netherlands all could not make it to the quadrennial showpiece event in Russia.
Fast forward to today and the 2022 World Cup qualifiers might be on their way to claiming their first major scalp. In the latest instalment of the Clásico del Río de la Plata, one of the most iconic rivalries in international football, Argentina beat Uruguay 1-0. A seventh-minute goal scored by Ángel Di María proved to make the difference. The victory also made it almost certain that La Albiceleste would feature in next year's tournament.
Argentina's victory came largely against the run of play; they only attempted seven shots to Uruguay's 19. Uruguay also had seven corner-kick attempts to Argentina's two. However, Óscar Tabárez's team just didn't have enough to beat their arch-rivals.
Uruguay's loss puts them in a dicey situation as far as World Cup qualification is concerned. With five matches remaining, Uruguay are sixth in the 10-team CONMEBOL qualifiers. The top four teams qualify automatically, while the fifth-placed team will enter a two-legged playoff against a team from another confederation.
Not many people expected Uruguay to be where they are right now with so few matches to be played. La Celeste are currently ranked 15th according to the FIFA Rankings and have reached a semifinal and a quarterfinal over their last three World Cup appearances. However, if the qualifiers were to end today, Uruguay would shockingly be denied a spot by Chile and Colombia.
This is not a team which should be where they are right now. Bear in mind that the current Uruguay team contains players such as Diego Godín, Fernando Muslera, Lucas Torreira, Rodrigo Betancur, Martín Cáceres, and of course, legendary strikers Edinson Cavani and Luis Suárez. In addition, Tabárez, who has been Uruguay's for over 17 years spanning two stints, is one of the most accomplished coaches in international football.
The question then becomes: where is it going wrong?
Perhaps the biggest issue which plagues this Uruguay team is cohesion. Although the team of today is not necessarily much less talented than those of 2018 or 2010, Uruguay right now do not seem to be gelling in the same way that the squads of past years did. The new additions who have replaced the now-retired players, while no slouches themselves, do not always prove to be the best fits.
Players such as Torreira, Bentancur, and Federico Valverde were primarily benchwarmers at the time of the previous World Cup but have since established themselves as key players and regular starters. While it may be true that their entry into the first team represents something of a transitional phase for Uruguay, not many could have guessed that the drop-off in the team's overall cohesion would be quite this steep. This could be seen in Uruguay's results at the 2021 Copa América when they were eliminated by Colombia in the quarterfinals.
Uruguay's in-game execution is also somewhat of a cause for concern. Their propensity to make the occasional miscue has been costly in multiple matches during their qualifying campaign. This was even evident in the recent match against Argentina. It was a cheap turnover by Joaquín Piquerez which allowed Di María to score the only goal of the match.
In that same match, Uruguay's passing accuracy was just 71% - well below that of their opponents. These minor yet frequent lapses have added up, costing Uruguay matches and precious points which just might cause them to miss out on the World Cup for the first time since 2006.
On paper, most would expect Uruguay to nevertheless make it through there next few fixtures and qualify for the World Cup. However, time is running out and the CONMEBOL qualifiers are known to be the most gruelling of any confederation's.
That said, it's still too early for Uruguay to panic, especially considering that their next four matches are against the four teams directly below them in the standings. However, if two or three of these matches pass and they still find themselves on the outside looking in, we might very well see one of the biggest casualties of these World Cup qualifiers.
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