The Weekly Take, Issue 183: The Potential Start of Another Deep Run

By far the most memorable season in Ajax Amsterdam's recent history was their 2018-19 campaign. In that season, Ajax embarked on a stunning underdog run to the semifinals of the Champions League. It was the club's first appearance in the final four since 1997. Ajax had to win three two-legged ties before the tournament even began in order to qualify. They then proceeded to advance to the round of 16 out of a group which include Bayern Munich, then knocked out Real Madrid and Juventus in subsequent two-legged ties before falling to Tottenham Hotspur in the semifinals.

While a repeat of that season's success might be unlikely, Ajax's Champions League performance this season have been extremely impressive. Their latest match was a 3-1 victory over Borussia Dortmund. Despite falling a goal behind after conceding a first-half penalty, Ajax fought back and scored three goals within a late 20-minute span to notch their fourth consecutive win and clinch a spot in the round of 16.

When looking at the current Ajax team, the name that clearly stands out above all others has to be Sébastien Haller. In Ajax's victory over Dortmund, the Ivorian scored his seventh Champions League goal in just four matches. In 2018-19, Haller had a breakout season at Eintracht Frankfurt, scoring 15 league goals alongside Luka Jović.

It would soon seem as though both would experience career stalls. Both players left the club in the subsequent off-season; Jović has not even been close to his previous form ever since joining Real Madrid. Similarly, Haller was never able to match his prior standard of play after he joined West Ham United. At West Ham, Haller scored just 14 goals in 54 matches over one-and-a-half seasons.

However, ever since joining Ajax in January 2021, Haller's career trajectory has only gone one way: upwards. He is scoring goals at a higher rate than he has at any prior point of his career. His seven Champions League goals thus far see him trail only the best centre-forward in the world: Bayern striker Robert Lewandowski. Haller's current Champions League form does not seem unsustainable, either: he is in excellent form domestically as well, with seven goals in 11 Eredivisie matches.

That being said, this Ajax team is about more than just Haller. Dušan Tadić and Daley Blind, two players who were crucial to Ajax's 2019 semifinal run, have remained key pieces for Ajax to this day. Tadić in particular continues to be criminally underrated despite several standout years at Ajax. The Serbian ought to be regarded as one of European football's standout playmakers.

Although many of the names which powered the iconic Ajax team of three seasons ago have since left the club, their replacements have proven to be up to the task. The likes of Ryan Gravenberch, Jurriën Timber, Noussair Mazraoui, and off-season signing Steven Berghuis have impressed many during this opening portion of the season.

Going back to the prior point about playmaking, no other club has created more goalscoring opportunities than Ajax up to this point in this season's Champions League. Ajax also rank third in possession at an average of 58.8%. This combination has served as the foundation of Ajax's Champions League success this season.

Let's also not forget that there's still the January transfer window to come. After all, it was during the most recent January window that Ajax signed Haller. With the help of one or two savvy signings, a deep Champions League run could once again be on the cards.

Another Champions League semifinal appearance might be a step too far for the current Ajax crop; however, the quarterfinals are undoubtedly in play. Since Ajax will almost certainly top Group C, they will be more likely to avoid a title contender in the round of 16. However, even if they don't, Ajax have the personnel to potentially upset one of the leading contenders; all it takes it for everything to just fall into place over 180 minutes.

After two seasons of rebuilding following many major departures, Ajax now find themselves primed for what could be another season in which they give Europe's elite a major scare. With the obvious exception of Paris Saint-Germain, they are clearly the best team from outside a major domestic league right now.

The Weekly Take, Issue 93: Back to the Drawing Board

It has been an eventful past year for Ajax.

From February to April 2019, the Amsterdam club embarked on an astonishing underdog run to the Champions League semifinals. They knocked out Real Madrid and Juventus along the way and were merely seconds away from a spot in the final before a stoppage-time Lucas Moura goal put Tottenham Hotspur in the final at Ajax's expense. 

This unexpected success increased the level of interest by several major clubs in Ajax's players, so it was no surprise when their two best players in Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt left the Dutch capital for Barcelona and Juve respectively. However, although the situation appeared somewhat grim for Ajax after these two departures, they were handed an unexpected lifeline by being drawn into a Champions League group which one would probably have expected them to top. They were to play against a Valencia team which would soon fire head coach Marcelino for seemingly no reason at all, a Chelsea team in complete disarray, and a Lille team to whom Ajax were clearly superior.

Yet, as this post is being written, Ajax have just been knocked out of the Champions League at the first hurdle. A 1-0 loss to Valencia eliminated the reigning Eredivisie champions from the tournament, with Rodrigo scoring the only goal of the match.

Considering what they were able to achieve during last season's campaign, Ajax's performance in this season's Champions League can be deemed an underachievement, especially when one considers the fact that they were drawn into one of the tournament's easiest groups. This is exacerbated by the relative star power of their team; it would not be a stretch to suggest that among the 10 best players in Group H, six or seven of them play for Ajax. Dušan Tadić, Hakim Ziyech, André Onana, Nicolás Tagliafico, Donny van de Beek, Daley Blind, and arguably Quincy Promes are on paper better than any of Valencia's or Lille's players as well as all of Chelsea's apart from N'Golo Kanté, Christian Pulisic, and Tammy Abraham. Thus, while regression to the mean may have been a factor to be considered, it does not wholly explain their failure to qualify for the round of 16.

During the past off-season, Ajax should certainly have done more with the enormous sums of money which they received from the sales of de Jong and de Ligt. Both were signed by their new clubs for €75 million each. Despite this infusion of revenue, the most expensive signing made by Ajax during the 2019 off-season was that of Promes from Sevilla, who was signed for €15.7 million.

While it is certainly true that Ajax is today a far cry from the powerhouse it once was, the club showed a lack of ambition in the transfer market. The €150 million received by the club from the two major sales should have been put to use. It is understandable that not many top players would want to play in a major league such as the Eredivisie; however, that doesn't excuse the fact that Ajax did not even try to search for ample replacements for their two departed young stars. They could easily have gone after a player such as Leon Goretzka, Sergej Milinković-Savić, or Fabián Ruiz to replace de Jong. De Ligt, meanwhile, could have been succeeded by a centre-back such as Milan Škriniar, Alessio Romagnoli, or Ibrahima Konaté. Instead, Ajax chose to mostly stand pat, and paid for this decision through their early Champions League exit.

However, all is not yet lost at the Johan Cruyff Arena. The January transfer window is approaching, and this represents another opportunity for Ajax to use the money which they now have in order to bring in reinforcements and reload for next season's Champions League campaign; much like Paris Saint-Germain, the relative weakness of their domestic league means that Ajax are far too good to merely target a domestic league title.

Several teams in the past have made one deep Champions League run only to never again do anything significant on Europe's biggest stage with the same core group of players. It is possible for Ajax to avoid such a fate; however, it is likely that they will only be able to do so through heavy but intelligent expenditures on high-quality players.

The Weekly Take, Issue 58: Is Another Miracle About to Happen?

As the first leg of this season’s Champions League quarterfinal ties commenced, one could be forgiven for overlooking the Ajax-Juventus match, as it was one expected to be very one-sided in Juventus’ favour. This was despite the fact that Ajax had just recorded an astonishing victory over Real Madrid to send Los Merengues packing in the round of 16.

However, the Amsterdam club once again defied the odds, holding the Bianconeri to a 1-1 draw, with David Neres equalizing after Cristiano Ronaldo had opened the scoring for Juve. Even more impressive was the fact that statistically speaking, Ajax outplayed Juve for large portions of the game. They had more shots on target, corners, possession, and completed passes. Ajax’s passing accuracy was also 10 percentage points higher than Juve’s.

It was a steady, assured performance from Ajax, with players such as Hakim Ziyech, Frenkie de Jong, Neres, and Daley Blind causing major problems for their favoured opponents.

Even though Ajax only began appearing on most people’s radars after their stunning win over Real, this team is actually much better than these people assume. Their core of de Jong, Ziyech, Matthijs de Ligt, Lasse Schöne, Dušan Tadić, and Nicolás Tagliafico is good enough to worry any top team in Europe. Despite their lack of a bona fide superstar, Ajax clearly have a formidable starting 11 and a generally deep roster.

Like many underdog teams that have found success, Ajax have often had to resort to unconventional tactics when playing against more fancied opponents, and these tactics seem to have worked very well indeed. Against Juve, attacking midfielder Tadić started at centre-forward, something he seldom does in Eredivisie matches against weaker teams, but usually does in Champions League matches, especially when Ajax is the underdog. Just as he did in the round of 16 match against Real, the Serbian thrived in the “false nine” role, picking up where he left off and having another excellent game against the Turin club’s much-vaunted defense. Ajax also typically field a 4-3-3 formation in domestic league play but adjust to tough Champions League opponents by fielding a 4-2-3-1 formation. This tactical switch has obviously paid off up to this point.

In this regard, Ajax head coach Erik ten Hag deserves a tremendous amount of credit. When he took over in December 2017, Ajax were a team in disarray. They had failed to qualify for the Europa League, had been knocked out of the KNVB Cup, and were on their way to once again failing to win the Eredivisie title; PSV would go on to take it by four points. However, had ten Hag not taken over from Marcel Keizer when he did, it could easily have been so much worse. Ten Hag’s appointment put new life into the team, as unlike Keizer, he was able to get the best out of what many would consider to be a team which was relatively financially constrained. This momentum carried over into the current season, reaching its high point with the victory over Real.

Ajax has always prioritized the development of its young players. This mentality has undoubtedly been facilitated by its iconic youth academy. In their current squad, de Ligt, de Jong, Neres, Donny van den Beek, and André Onana are all regular starters who are 23 years old or younger; all five are products of Ajax’s youth academy and played for Ajax’s youth team Jong Ajax. This young core has formed a formidable, home-grown nucleus throughout this season.

Considering what European club football today has become, this season could represent Ajax’s best chance to reach the Champions League semifinals for the first time since 1997 when coincidentally, they were knocked out by Juve. De Jong is already Barcelona-bound, and after Ajax’s impressive run this season, there will surely be no shortage of elite clubs chasing their other key players in the coming off-season.

With this in mind, Ajax really have nothing to lose as they enter the second leg in Turin. They have already surpassed expectations by reaching the quarterfinals and are once again expected to lose, so the pressure is off.

Having said that, if Ajax were to record another upset victory, it would write another chapter to what has become a breakout season.