At the beginning of the season, anyone who would’ve said that Manchester City would find themselves close to elimination from the Champions League before the round of 16 while also being all the way back in fifth place in the Premier League, 15 points behind league leaders Liverpool, would have been roundly mocked - and understandably so. After all, the Citizens had not only won the last four domestic league titles in a row; they’d also made it to at least the quarterfinals of the last seven editions of the Champions League.
However, as has clearly been seen in what’s been City’s worst season in a very long time, the blue half of Manchester hit another low with a 3-2 home loss in the first leg of their Champions League round of 24 fixture against Real Madrid.
The match started well for City. In the 19th minute, Erling Haaland finished off a well-constructed sequence in which he’d already played a part in creating after getting on the end of a Jack Grealish pass via an additional touch from Joško Gvardiol who was credited with the assist. Following the goal, Real started pushing much harder and although their efforts went unrewarded for the rest of the first half, Kylian Mbappé scored with an unconventional volley in the 60th minute.
With a little over 10 minutes of regulation time left, Real midfielder Dani Ceballos who’d earlier set up Mbappé’s goal fouled Phil Foden in the penalty area, allowing Haaland to step forward and convert the penalty to put City 2-1 ahead. However, as they’ve done so many times before, Real found a way to gut out the win. Six minutes after Haaland’s penalty, Brahim Díaz scored against his former club - a follow-up attempt after Ederson saved a shot from fellow Brazilian Vinícius Júnior before Jude Bellingham put the ball into an empty net in stoppage time to clinch the win for Real and leave City with a lot to do in the second leg in the Spanish capital if they’re to avoid missing out on the last 16 for the first time since the 2012-13 season.
A lot has already been written about City’s remarkable decline this season. However, the whole thing hinges on one man and one particular moment.
On 22 September 2024, City and Arsenal played out a 2-2 draw in the Premier League. The most important moment of the match - in fact, arguably the entire season - occurred when City’s superstar defensive midfielder Rodri tore his ACL, ruling him out for the rest of the season. Almost immediately, City’s level of play plummeted and has stayed down since.
It comes down to this: for all the money they’ve spent and all the talent in their squad, City’s entire strategy ultimately revolved around Rodri prior to the Spaniard’s injury; he was the piece that made it all work. It’s often mentioned that City’s win rate with Rodri is higher than that without him by a massive margin; they don’t seem to have a backup plan sans Rodri.
This brings us to Pep Guardiola who has coached City since 2016. There’s no question that this is the toughest test of his illustrious coaching career thus far - and remarkably, despite the fact that Guardiola is a legitimate GOAT candidate, it’s a test that Guardiola is failing so far. On many occasions this season, the Catalan has appeared utterly bereft of ideas. To make matters worse, City haven’t adjusted at all and have instead looked worse and worse with each passing week - and for that, Guardiola has to receive much blame.
Finally, City’s transfer window strategy has to be scrutinized. Time and again, City haven’t brought in players with skillsets who would’ve been able to be plugged into the squad fairly easily in Rodri’s absence. As such, City’s squad is now rather unbalanced especially in midfield - and this has been a major reason why the loss of one player all but sank them.
Even if Manchester City somehow turn it around in the second leg and advance to the round of 16, based on everything we’ve seen from them this season their odds of winning the Champions League for the second time in three seasons are extremely unlikely. The way things seem right now, there seems to be no end to their ongoing woes in sight.
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