Saturday, February 8, 2025

The Weekly Take, Issue 348: Indicative of Greater Struggles or Rounding Into Form Just in Time?

Before their blockbuster Champions League clash against Manchester City, Real Madrid first had to get through the Madrid derby in the league. This was an especially high-stakes derby because cross-town rivals Atlético Madrid trailed Real by just one point in the league. The winner of the match would leave the Santiago Bernabéu top of the league and deal a severe blow to their rivals’ title chances.


As things turned out, though, both teams finished as they started; the match ended in a 1-1 draw. After a little over a half-hour was played, French midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni surrendered Real’s first penalty of the season after fouling Atlético’s Samuel Lino who’d been attempting to finish off a cross played in by Javi Galán. Julián Alvarez then stepped forward to convert the penalty.


Atlético carried their lead into the half-time break; however, it didn’t take Real much time after the interval to score the equalizing goal. After Jude Bellingham’s initial shot was blocked, Kylian Mbappé was right in position to finish off the follow-up attempt. Following this, Real went on to firmly control the match throughout the second half but, as so many have found over the years, Diego Simeone’s Atlético team are probably the most difficult team to chip away at; their frequent attacks on the Atlético net following Mbappé’s goal yielded nothing further.


Although Real might currently be in first place in La Liga, that doesn’t tell the whole story. This has certainly been a more difficult campaign for Real than what they’d likely have envisioned when the season began. Real started their league season slowly and only recently took the lead for the first time this season; for most of it they’d been playing catch-up to Atlético and Barcelona. Real’s early-season struggles were punctuated by a 4-0 loss to Barça in El Clásico and arguably encapsulated by Mbappé’s slump which ended up costing them several wins.


However, this doesn’t even compare to what they’ve been through in the league phase of the Champions League. After losing three of four matches, Real were dangerously close to not even making it to the round of 24; they were in 24th place after five matchdays before winning their last three to set up a highly anticipated match against City for a spot in the last 16.


While it’s true that this season hasn’t even been close to peak Real, that may be all that’s needed to win them the league title for the fourth time in the last six seasons. Real are currently on pace to finish the season with 83 points in the league. The last time a total that low would’ve won La Liga was almost two decades ago in the 2006-07 season. That being said, due to Atlético’s and Barça’s own inconsistent form, Real have only needed to be “just better than” the two other title contenders.


Needless to say, performances on this level won’t cut it if Real are to make a genuine run at defending their Champions League title. Although their next opponents have had obvious struggles of their own this season to the point at which most are expecting Real to come out on top against City, it almost certainly won’t be enough against the gauntlet of opponents to come after.


With that in mind, is it possible that Real have been starting to turn the corner and are peaking at just the right time? Heading into the derby, Real had won four of their last five in the league to move into first place; as mentioned earlier, they also finished the league phase of the Champions League with three wins in a row. So many times over the years we’ve seen Real ramp it up and come into form down the final stretch of the season. This could easily be the case once again.


It’s astonishing to think that even in a “down year”, Real Madrid could conceivably end up winning both La Liga and the Champions League. That said, such an outcome isn’t likely to take place with more performances like theirs against Atlético in the derby. However, by now everyone knows better than to dismiss Real way too early - after all, there’s a reason they’re the winningest football club of all time.

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