Monday, February 3, 2025

The Weekly Take, Issue 347: All That xG for Nothing

The latest edition of the Derby della Madonnina was a high-stakes encounter for both Milan clubs - but for different reasons. For AC Milan, this match represented an opportunity to close the gap to Juventus who are currently in fourth place in Serie A and thus occupying the last Champions League qualification berth. As for Inter Milan, a win would move them one point behind league leaders Napoli after having played one match less.


The derby ended up in a 1-1 draw - a result which left neither club satisfied. Tijjani Reijnders opened the scoring for Milan shortly before the end of the first half - a goal which came largely against the run of play. Throughout the second half, Inter continued to apply the pressure but couldn’t finish off the many goalscoring opportunities they created. Not only that - within a second-half span of just under 25 minutes, Inter struck the post thrice - once each via Yann Bisseck, Marcus Thuram, and Denzel Dumfries. Even before that, Inter had three goals waved off for offside.


It wasn’t until stoppage time when the Nerazzurri finally made their breakthrough. Substitute Bisseck sent in a cross towards the far post which Polish defender Nicola Zalewski, who had himself come off the bench as well, took on the chest in the direction of Stefan de Vrij who put it in the net from close range.


Despite eventually scoring the equalizer, Inter would certainly have been frustrated with the match’s outcome to say the least. Inter were in almost total control of the match right from opening kick-off - to have three goals ruled out for offside, then to hit the post three times is almost unheard of. Going beyond even that, Inter missed a massive opportunity to deal a significant blow to Napoli in the title race. Earlier in the day, Napoli had only managed a 1-1 draw against Roma in the Derby del Sole after Spanish full-back Angeliño scored Roma’s equalizer in stoppage time.


No team has won the Scudetto in consecutive seasons since Juve’s unprecedented run of nine league titles in a row from the 2011-12 to 2019-20 seasons; Inter themselves haven’t done it since they won five straight from 2005-06 to 2009-10. The last of those five league titles was part of their legendary Treble-winning season.


Those who have been paying close attention to Inter’s season thus far will have picked up on the fact that for a team of their calibre, they tend to get caught offside relatively frequently. This has been a major issue throughout the season and has cost them valuable points over the course of the season - including in this match against their cross-town arch-rivals. It’s an issue which even this late into the season, Inter will have to somehow resolve if they’re to seriously push Napoli and go back-to-back.


Inter didn’t sign any new players in the recently concluded mid-season transfer window. If Inter end up failing to defend their Serie A title, it’s entirely conceivable that they’ll look back on that and rue a missed opportunity. This is especially the case because during that same transfer window, Napoli sold Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, their best player, to PSG for a transfer fee of €70 million while not replacing him with anyone of note. This should have been a chance for Inter to get a leg up on their title rivals; instead, they might very well have let the chance pass them by.


That being said, there’s an obvious positive that Inter can take from this match; it’s one which has equally applied to many of their matches this season and is a big reason why they’re even in this position to begin with. Inter clearly excel at turning possession and pressure into xG; their derby xG was almost two and a half times Milan’s. It’s why they comfortably lead the league in goals scored; usually, all those high-quality chances do translate into goals. Matches like this one can be regarded as something of an outlier.


Though Inter Milan’s derby draw isn’t that severe of a blow to their title hopes on the surface, it could end up being a turning point as they not only failed to beat their arch-nemesis; Inter let Napoli off the hook as well. As the  home stretch beckons, this could have turned out to be a crucial two points dropped.

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