The Weekly Take, Issue 350: Tactical Thoughts

This being another “milestone” post, I’ve decided to go with a more personal approach to this post - it’ll include some of my thoughts on the current state of the football “metagame” that some of you might disagree with - but which I nonetheless hold firmly to as of right now.

Without further ado:

The Most Important Position in the Game Is Defensive Midfielder

Defensive midfielder is arguably the most underappreciated position in any team sport. While centre-forwards, wingers, number 10s, and attacking midfielders always get the bulk of the spotlight, at the moment the most important position of all is the least stereotypically “glamorous” one. A number 6 who’s at the very least serviceable is a necessity for any team with genuine hopes of challenging for a Champions League title.

In the current meta, the defensive midfielder no longer serves as “just the first line of defense”. Modern defensive midfielders are also often the players who start the transition from defense to attack - though the “regista” archetype of defensive midfielder in the style of players like Fernando Redondo has largely fallen out of favour. The present-day defensive midfielder arguably requires a more diverse skillset than does any other position.

The importance of the position has been shown at its most striking this season via Manchester City’s struggles. Having lost reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri to a torn ACL early in the season, the Citizens have looked a shadow of the team which has dominated the Premier League and been a serious Champions League contender in recent years. If this had been any other player, City would not have struggled like this - their entire strategy can be said to be built around Rodri. Looking at other elite teams, though none are quite on Rodri’s level, the likes of Real Madrid’s Aurélien Tchouaméni, Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch, and Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich equally have indispensable roles for their respective teams. Once again, replace them with a player not close to their level and their teams would implode.

4-4-2 Is (Usually) Not It

There’s a very specific type of football fan who pines for the “good old days” of the 4-4-2 formation. In reality, however, there’s a very good reason why almost no one runs 4-4-2 anymore.

A flat midfield four is often incredibly rigid and inflexible. It often doesn’t leave much room for a “plan B” if the opponent finds a way to shut down the team’s general strategy. In addition, although the idea of dual centre-forwards might seem tempting on the surface to those looking for additional offensive firepower, this comes at the cost of playmaking. A classic 4-4-2 formation includes no number 10s - the position for which playmaking is the primary duty (more on this shortly). For that reason, a team that runs a 4-4-2 is almost always forced to go with a “number 10 by committee” approach - something which is often unlikely to work except in specific circumstances.

Right now, 4-4-2 is best used as a “pocket strat” against specific teams which it counters - and even then it should still be modified from the standard 4-4-2 such as in Manchester United’s 4-4-2 with dual false 9s in their FA Cup final upset victory over City.

Number 10s: “Adapt or Die”

Though “adapt or die” may be a cliché, it’s one which perfectly fits number 10s today. Old-school number 10s have been all but phased out of the meta. Every number 10 who is to remain at the top today must also be at least reasonably capable at either winger, attacking midfielder, or false 9.

In addition, the days of the “number 10 main” are looking increasingly numbered; most players who start at 10 these days are 8/10s rather than 10/8s. This is understandable when one considers the fact that it’s much easier for a young attacking midfielder to learn playmaking skills than it is for a young number 10 to learn box-to-box skills.

It can even be said that several number 10s who were once considered highly promising prospects but never quite lived up to the hype such as Ganso, Christian Pulisic, and Mario Götze were “born in the wrong era”: had they been in their prime in the 1990s or 2000s, they’d have gone on to be superstars; however, their playstyle was quite simply a poor fit for the modern football meta.

The Weekly Take, Issue 349: Does It Get Worse? Oh Yes, It Does

At the beginning of the season, anyone who would’ve said that Manchester City would find themselves close to elimination from the Champions League before the round of 16 while also being all the way back in fifth place in the Premier League, 15 points behind league leaders Liverpool, would have been roundly mocked - and understandably so. After all, the Citizens had not only won the last four domestic league titles in a row; they’d also made it to at least the quarterfinals of the last seven editions of the Champions League.

However, as has clearly been seen in what’s been City’s worst season in a very long time, the blue half of Manchester hit another low with a 3-2 home loss in the first leg of their Champions League round of 24 fixture against Real Madrid.

The match started well for City. In the 19th minute, Erling Haaland finished off a well-constructed sequence in which he’d already played a part in creating after getting on the end of a Jack Grealish pass via an additional touch from Joško Gvardiol who was credited with the assist. Following the goal, Real started pushing much harder and although their efforts went unrewarded for the rest of the first half, Kylian Mbappé scored with an unconventional volley in the 60th minute.

With a little over 10 minutes of regulation time left, Real midfielder Dani Ceballos who’d earlier set up Mbappé’s goal fouled Phil Foden in the penalty area, allowing Haaland to step forward and convert the penalty to put City 2-1 ahead. However, as they’ve done so many times before, Real found a way to gut out the win. Six minutes after Haaland’s penalty, Brahim Díaz scored against his former club - a follow-up attempt after Ederson saved a shot from fellow Brazilian Vinícius Júnior before Jude Bellingham put the ball into an empty net in stoppage time to clinch the win for Real and leave City with a lot to do in the second leg in the Spanish capital if they’re to avoid missing out on the last 16 for the first time since the 2012-13 season.

A lot has already been written about City’s remarkable decline this season. However, the whole thing hinges on one man and one particular moment.

On 22 September 2024, City and Arsenal played out a 2-2 draw in the Premier League. The most important moment of the match - in fact, arguably the entire season - occurred when City’s superstar defensive midfielder Rodri tore his ACL, ruling him out for the rest of the season. Almost immediately, City’s level of play plummeted and has stayed down since.

It comes down to this: for all the money they’ve spent and all the talent in their squad, City’s entire strategy ultimately revolved around Rodri prior to the Spaniard’s injury; he was the piece that made it all work. It’s often mentioned that City’s win rate with Rodri is higher than that without him by a massive margin; they don’t seem to have a backup plan sans Rodri.

This brings us to Pep Guardiola who has coached City since 2016. There’s no question that this is the toughest test of his illustrious coaching career thus far - and remarkably, despite the fact that Guardiola is a legitimate GOAT candidate, it’s a test that Guardiola is failing so far. On many occasions this season, the Catalan has appeared utterly bereft of ideas. To make matters worse, City haven’t adjusted at all and have instead looked worse and worse with each passing week - and for that, Guardiola has to receive much blame.

Finally, City’s transfer window strategy has to be scrutinized. Time and again, City haven’t brought in players with skillsets who would’ve been able to be plugged into the squad fairly easily in Rodri’s absence. As such, City’s squad is now rather unbalanced especially in midfield - and this has been a major reason why the loss of one player all but sank them.

Even if Manchester City somehow turn it around in the second leg and advance to the round of 16, based on everything we’ve seen from them this season their odds of winning the Champions League for the second time in three seasons are extremely unlikely. The way things seem right now, there seems to be no end to their ongoing woes in sight.

The Weekly Take, Issue 348: Indicative of Greater Struggles or Rounding Into Form Just in Time?

Before their blockbuster Champions League clash against Manchester City, Real Madrid first had to get through the Madrid derby in the league. This was an especially high-stakes derby because cross-town rivals Atlético Madrid trailed Real by just one point in the league. The winner of the match would leave the Santiago Bernabéu top of the league and deal a severe blow to their rivals’ title chances.

As things turned out, though, both teams finished as they started; the match ended in a 1-1 draw. After a little over a half-hour was played, French midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni surrendered Real’s first penalty of the season after fouling Atlético’s Samuel Lino who’d been attempting to finish off a cross played in by Javi Galán. Julián Alvarez then stepped forward to convert the penalty.

Atlético carried their lead into the half-time break; however, it didn’t take Real much time after the interval to score the equalizing goal. After Jude Bellingham’s initial shot was blocked, Kylian Mbappé was right in position to finish off the follow-up attempt. Following this, Real went on to firmly control the match throughout the second half but, as so many have found over the years, Diego Simeone’s Atlético team are probably the most difficult team to chip away at; their frequent attacks on the Atlético net following Mbappé’s goal yielded nothing further.

Although Real might currently be in first place in La Liga, that doesn’t tell the whole story. This has certainly been a more difficult campaign for Real than what they’d likely have envisioned when the season began. Real started their league season slowly and only recently took the lead for the first time this season; for most of it they’d been playing catch-up to Atlético and Barcelona. Real’s early-season struggles were punctuated by a 4-0 loss to Barça in El Clásico and arguably encapsulated by Mbappé’s slump which ended up costing them several wins.

However, this doesn’t even compare to what they’ve been through in the league phase of the Champions League. After losing three of four matches, Real were dangerously close to not even making it to the round of 24; they were in 24th place after five matchdays before winning their last three to set up a highly anticipated match against City for a spot in the last 16.

While it’s true that this season hasn’t even been close to peak Real, that may be all that’s needed to win them the league title for the fourth time in the last six seasons. Real are currently on pace to finish the season with 83 points in the league. The last time a total that low would’ve won La Liga was almost two decades ago in the 2006-07 season. That being said, due to Atlético’s and Barça’s own inconsistent form, Real have only needed to be “just better than” the two other title contenders.

Needless to say, performances on this level won’t cut it if Real are to make a genuine run at defending their Champions League title. Although their next opponents have had obvious struggles of their own this season to the point at which most are expecting Real to come out on top against City, it almost certainly won’t be enough against the gauntlet of opponents to come after.

With that in mind, is it possible that Real have been starting to turn the corner and are peaking at just the right time? Heading into the derby, Real had won four of their last five in the league to move into first place; as mentioned earlier, they also finished the league phase of the Champions League with three wins in a row. So many times over the years we’ve seen Real ramp it up and come into form down the final stretch of the season. This could easily be the case once again.

It’s astonishing to think that even in a “down year”, Real Madrid could conceivably end up winning both La Liga and the Champions League. That said, such an outcome isn’t likely to take place with more performances like theirs against Atlético in the derby. However, by now everyone knows better than to dismiss Real way too early - after all, there’s a reason they’re the winningest football club of all time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 347: All That xG for Nothing

The latest edition of the Derby della Madonnina was a high-stakes encounter for both Milan clubs - but for different reasons. For AC Milan, this match represented an opportunity to close the gap to Juventus who are currently in fourth place in Serie A and thus occupying the last Champions League qualification berth. As for Inter Milan, a win would move them one point behind league leaders Napoli after having played one match less.

The derby ended up in a 1-1 draw - a result which left neither club satisfied. Tijjani Reijnders opened the scoring for Milan shortly before the end of the first half - a goal which came largely against the run of play. Throughout the second half, Inter continued to apply the pressure but couldn’t finish off the many goalscoring opportunities they created. Not only that - within a second-half span of just under 25 minutes, Inter struck the post thrice - once each via Yann Bisseck, Marcus Thuram, and Denzel Dumfries. Even before that, Inter had three goals waved off for offside.

It wasn’t until stoppage time when the Nerazzurri finally made their breakthrough. Substitute Bisseck sent in a cross towards the far post which Polish defender Nicola Zalewski, who had himself come off the bench as well, took on the chest in the direction of Stefan de Vrij who put it in the net from close range.

Despite eventually scoring the equalizer, Inter would certainly have been frustrated with the match’s outcome to say the least. Inter were in almost total control of the match right from opening kick-off - to have three goals ruled out for offside, then to hit the post three times is almost unheard of. Going beyond even that, Inter missed a massive opportunity to deal a significant blow to Napoli in the title race. Earlier in the day, Napoli had only managed a 1-1 draw against Roma in the Derby del Sole after Spanish full-back Angeliño scored Roma’s equalizer in stoppage time.

No team has won the Scudetto in consecutive seasons since Juve’s unprecedented run of nine league titles in a row from the 2011-12 to 2019-20 seasons; Inter themselves haven’t done it since they won five straight from 2005-06 to 2009-10. The last of those five league titles was part of their legendary Treble-winning season.

Those who have been paying close attention to Inter’s season thus far will have picked up on the fact that for a team of their calibre, they tend to get caught offside relatively frequently. This has been a major issue throughout the season and has cost them valuable points over the course of the season - including in this match against their cross-town arch-rivals. It’s an issue which even this late into the season, Inter will have to somehow resolve if they’re to seriously push Napoli and go back-to-back.

Inter didn’t sign any new players in the recently concluded mid-season transfer window. If Inter end up failing to defend their Serie A title, it’s entirely conceivable that they’ll look back on that and rue a missed opportunity. This is especially the case because during that same transfer window, Napoli sold Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, their best player, to PSG for a transfer fee of €70 million while not replacing him with anyone of note. This should have been a chance for Inter to get a leg up on their title rivals; instead, they might very well have let the chance pass them by.

That being said, there’s an obvious positive that Inter can take from this match; it’s one which has equally applied to many of their matches this season and is a big reason why they’re even in this position to begin with. Inter clearly excel at turning possession and pressure into xG; their derby xG was almost two and a half times Milan’s. It’s why they comfortably lead the league in goals scored; usually, all those high-quality chances do translate into goals. Matches like this one can be regarded as something of an outlier.

Though Inter Milan’s derby draw isn’t that severe of a blow to their title hopes on the surface, it could end up being a turning point as they not only failed to beat their arch-nemesis; Inter let Napoli off the hook as well. As the  home stretch beckons, this could have turned out to be a crucial two points dropped.