The Weekly Take, Issue 342: Not Quite an Ideal Scenario for a Top-Four Push

As the halfway point of the 2024-25 season approaches, it's safe to say that Fiorentina have exceeded expectations so far. In fifth place in Serie A heading into their away match against Juventus, the Tuscan club were on pace for their best league finish since the 2015-16 season. This match also served as a major opportunity for Fiorentina to take a step closer to making the top four for the first time in a decade and clinch a Champions League qualification spot - something they haven't done since the 2008-09; while Fiorentina have finished fourth on three occasions since, in each of those years Serie A only sent three teams to the Champions League.

Fiorentina's match against the Bianconeri ended in a 2-2 draw - a result that does little to help either team as both are in pursuit of a top-four league finish. French midfielder Khéphren Thuram opened the scoring in the 20th minute; however, seven minutes before half-time Fiorentina got on the board via a goal scored by Moise Kean who got one over his former club by doing so.

Shortly after the interval, Thuram netted his own and his team's second goal. Throughout the second half, Juve were firmly in control of the match; as such, it came as a major surprise when with just three minutes remaining in regulation time, Kean initially mishandled a cross into the box but recovered quickly to set up Riccardo Sottil whose equalizing half-volley proved to be the last goal of the match.

Considering the fact that Juve had almost two-thirds of the possession and created a larger number of viable goalscoring chances throughout the match, Fiorentina were arguably let off the hook. They can't afford many more showings like this one during the second half of the season - that would be something which would likely derail their top-four push.

That being said, by far the biggest positive that Fiorentina would have taken from this match was another excellent performance by Kean who's been having a breakout season. After initially struggling to live up to the hype that surrounded him as a youngest at Juventus, Kean has been finally delivering on all the buzz from back then and turning the narrative of his career around.

With 11 league goals in 17 matches, Kean currently ranks third in the race for the Capocannoniere - Serie A's top scorer's award. This is a turn of events that no one could ever have envisaged even just half a year ago. At this point, Kean might even have a realistic chance of unseating Mateo Retegui from his spot as the starting centre-forward for the Italian national team within the next 12 months.

On the flipside, Fiorentina have to be concerned about the recent performances of the group playing just behind Kean. Fiorentina's trio in attacking midfield and out wide were clearly outplayed; they provided next to no resistance for Juve whatsoever. This has largely been the case throughout most of this season with players such as Andrea Colpani, Albert Guðmundsson, and Sottil (despite getting his name on the scoresheet against Juve) struggling to justify their selection in the starting 11. Could this latest match prove to be the impetus for Fiorentina to upgrade at one of those positions in the January transfer window? It remains to be seen.

With regard to the transfer window, Fiorentina have been linked with Lyon's veteran defensive midfielder Nemanja Matić. Though not necessarily a certainty to be in the starting 11, the Serbian would give Fiorentina an infusion of grit and guts which would certainly serve Fiorentina well during the final stretch of the season. Additionally, having taken part in more than just a few pressure-filled scenarios with everything on the line, the experience which Matić would add would be highly valuable.

As things stand right now, this is looking like Fiorentina's best season in quite some time - but having said that, there are some causes for concern especially if they're to put themselves in serious contention to make the top four. There's an opportunity for them to do so and cap off what's been in general a season beyond what anyone at the club would've imagined when it began - but for sure, there'll have to be adjustments made for that to happen.

The Weekly Take, Issue 341: The Whole Thing Is Coming Apart

It’s fair to say that RB Leipzig haven’t had the easiest of seasons thus far. To the astonishment of almost everyone, the Saxony-based club have lost all six of their Champions League matches so far and have already been eliminated from the tournament with two matchdays remaining. On the domestic front, meanwhile, Die Bullen continue to be locked in a battle for qualification for next season’s Champions League but have recently seen a sharp decline in form.

Leipzig’s quest to secure a Champions League berth for a sixth consecutive season faced its toughest test to date when they travelled to the Allianz Arena to face off against league leaders Bayern Munich. Leipzig’s slump ended up deepening as they were taken apart in a crushing 5-1 loss. Both teams scored within the first two minutes of the match - Jamal Musiala for Bayern, Benjamin Šeško for Leipzig - but after that, it was all one-way traffic.

Bayern would take a 3-1 lead into the half-time break following further goals scored by Konrad Laimer and Joshua Kimmich. Two more goals in a three-minute span after the break would follow - Alphonso Davies set up Leroy Sané who scored Bayern’s fourth before the Canadian full-back went from provider to finisher, adding the Bavarian club’s fifth goal to complete the dominant, one-sided victory.

After a strong start to their Bundesliga season, Leipzig have fallen off dramatically in recent weeks. This loss against Bayern was their second by a 5-1 scoreline in their last four league matches. In the 11 matches in all competitions that Leipzig have played since the beginning of November, they have won just three and drawn one; the rest were all losses. There can be little doubt that the mid-season break will be readily welcomed by everyone at Leipzig for the opportunity it gives them to reset heading into the second half of the season.

The main issue that’s been plaguing Leipzig over their protracted slump has to be their defense. Across the 11-match span mentioned earlier, Leipzig have conceded 24 goals. That’s a figure which when prorated across a 34-match Bundesliga season equates to 74 conceded - a figure which last season would have ranked joint third-last in the entire league. Thus far, the likes of Castello Lukeba, Lukas Klostermann, and new signing Lutsharel Geertruida have simply not been up to the mark this season. On too many occasions they have left opponents with too much of a window to create a viable goalscoring opportunity, struggled to defend set pieces, and been outplayed in many one-on-one situations - often, even those in which they had the positional upper hand at first. Without any question, this cannot continue if Leipzig are to make a serious push for a spot in next season’s Champions League.

As of right now, Leipzig’s away form has to be particularly concerning. This most recent loss to Bayern means that Leipzig have now lost five of their last six away matches - a recent victory over Holstein Kiel which snapped a road losing streak of four being the sole exception. It’s a complete reversal of what they looked like in away matches earlier in the season; the struggles of Marco Rose’s team on the road could very well end up derailing their season.

In the upcoming January transfer window, it’s imperative that Leipzig bring in the necessary reinforcements. Not one of their off-season acquisitions has moved the needle in any appreciable manner; Xavi Simons doesn’t really count as he was already at Red Bull Arena on loan from Paris Saint-Germain last season and has returned under the same terms. As has been mentioned, shoring up the defense needs to be a priority. It might also be worthwhile for Leipzig to pursue signing a central midfielder - another position where they currently lack a player who’s been performing at the level needed for them to give them that push which will help them take a step closer to ending their slump.

By no means is RB Leipzig’s season a done deal; there’s more than enough time for them to turn it around. However, they have to use the mid-season break as an opportunity to regroup and recalibrate while also getting the best out of the January transfer window. It’s a near certainty that the first month or so after the interval will make or break Leipzig’s season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 340: Seemingly Back on Track

Despite still being top of La Liga, Barcelona’s form over the past month heading into their Champions League match against Borussia Dortmund had been rather shaky. Of Barça’s six most recent matches in all competitions, the Blaugrana emerged victorious in just two of them. Barça also saw their lead atop La Liga slashed by a three-match winless streak which saw them lose to Real Sociedad and Las Palmas as well as draw against Celta Vigo.

Although the Catalan club might have again been nowhere near their peak level against Dortmund, they were nevertheless able to leave Signal Iduna Park with all three points following a 3-2 victory over Die Schwarzgelbe. After a goalless first half, Barça broke the deadlock in the 52nd minute after Dani Olmo put Raphinha through on goal; the Brazilian winger duly took full advantage of the opportunity to put Barça ahead. Soon after, Dortmund equalized from the penalty spot after having earned that same penalty.

Ferran Torres put Barça back ahead in the 75th minute, just four minutes after entering the match to replace Robert Lewandowski. However, this lead didn’t last long as just three minutes later, an error by Barça goalkeeper Iñaki Peña set up Guirassy to score his and his team’s second. With just five minutes of regulation time remaining, Torres finished off a counter-attack off a Dortmund corner to clinch the win and ensure that Barça would remain three points behind league phase leaders Liverpool, who are yet to drop a point after six of the eight league phase matchdays.

Among the talking points following the match, one of them has to be about the abundance of weapons up front that Barça have at their disposal. This is a front four that could contain any combination of Lamine Yamal, Lewandowski, Torres, Olmo, and Raphinha; there’s a case to be made that it’s the most stacked attacking line in world football right now. The stats seem to back up such a claim: with 50 goals scored in the league thus far, Barça rank second in average league goals per game among all clubs in Europe’s four major leagues only behind Bayern Munich - who have played four fewer matches.

The potency of Barça’s offense was clearly on display against Dortmund with the German club’s defense often having no answer for Barça, especially in the second half. Even prior to that, though they weren’t quite able to make it onto the scoresheet until after the break, Barça had been creating the majority of the goalscoring chances in the first half and applying much pressure - as such, it came as little surprise when they did score the opening goal early in the second half.

It’s also worth noting that Torres entered the match as part of a triple substitution alongside Fermín López and Frenkie de Jong; the trio replaced Raphinha who had suffered an injury, Lewandowski who’d had a dismal showing, and Olmo who was taken off to enable Barça head coach Hansi Flick to better adjust his tactical approach.

Having most recently been at the helm of a then-struggling German national team, Flick’s arrival at Camp Nou was initially questioned by some. However, so far he seems to have proven that his ill-fated stint at the helm of Die Mannschaft was an aberration; in this match as well as the vast majority of Barça’s this season so far, Flick’s tactics and setup have been on point.

However, one area which might very well be cause for concern is the defense. Barça’s back five played an error-strewn second half; both goals scored by Dortmund came from errors by Pau Cubarsí and Peña respectively. It’s also potentially worth questioning if, following Marc-André ter Stegen’s torn patellar tendon which will keep him out of action for the rest of the season, Peña really does have what it takes to be the starting goalkeeper of a La Liga-winning team.

While on the surface it does appear that Barcelona have managed to get things rolling again, there’s still more than half a season to be played. That being said, on the whole they’ve shown that they not only have more than a slight chance of reclaiming their La Liga title; they might even go all the way in the Champions League and claim the biggest prize in European club football for the first time in a decade.

The Weekly Take, Issue 339: The Man Behind a Stunning Turnaround

The recent London derby which saw Tottenham host Chelsea featured a pair of clubs entering the match in sharply contrasting situations. Tottenham had been struggling all season long and another loss would not only leave Spurs in the bottom half of the league; it would also push head coach Ange Postecoglou a step closer to his potential firing.

Chelsea, on the other hand, have overcome a slow start under Postecoglou’s opposite number Enzo Maresca and slowly but surely climbed up the league table into second place. A victory against their crosstown rivals would have seen the Blues cut the deficit to league leaders Liverpool to just four points and keep their admittedly slim league title hopes alive.

Chelsea emerged from the derby on top, squeaking out a 4-3 win after having come back from two goals behind. Dominic Solanke and Dejan Kulusevski scored Tottenham’s first two goals within a six-minute span, putting the North Londoners 2-0 ahead after just 11 minutes. However, shortly after that, Jadon Sancho pulled one back for Chelsea.

Just before half-time, Pape Matar Sarr’s header struck the crossbar; as such, Tottenham squandered an opportunity to restore their two-goal lead. Chelsea would soon make them rue that miss after the break when Cole Palmer scored a penalty after Yves Bissouma needlessly fouled Moisés Caicedo in the box. Enzo Fernández would later put Chelsea in front before Palmer sealed the win in spectacular style, scoring with a Panenka after having been brought down in the penalty area by Sarr. Son Heung-min did pull a goal back for Spurs in stoppage time, but it was too late by then.

Chelsea have seen quite the turnaround this season following the firing of Mauricio Pochettino and his subsequent replacement by Maresca during the off-season. At first, many did have their doubts because Maresca’s only notable achievement as a coach to that point had been taking Leicester City to promotion from the Championship—something which most had expected the Foxes to have achieved with or without Maresca. Additionally, Chelsea had seen a clear improvement in the second half of last season, making Pochettino’s firing a confusing one to many Chelsea fans and outside observers alike.

However, after a shaky start, Maresca has clearly proven that he has what it takes to go toe-to-toe with the best that the Premier League has to offer. Perhaps his most notable accomplishment thus far has been reviving the career of Jadon Sancho. Once touted as England’s next phenom as a youngster at Borussia Dortmund, Sancho’s career went on to stall upon his move to Manchester United. Now, though, Sancho looks like a player reborn under Maresca. He’s finally showing signs of living up to the potential he showed way back then; a full-time signing is likely while a return to England’s national team - maybe even as a regular - isn’t even out of the question anymore.

Ever since Maresca has taken over, Palmer has ascended to a new level. There’s a strong case to be made that the Manchester-born midfielder is now among the top 10 players on the planet. As great a player Palmer already was, Maresca has improved upon the setup that Pochettino had in place to better maximize Palmer’s strengths, giving him all the freedom he needs to almost single-handedly run the show if need be - such as against Spurs when Palmer turned in yet another dominant performance; he’s likely the favorite to win the Premier League Player of the Season award as of right now.

Finally, Maresca’s tactical setups have been on point throughout the season. Against Spurs, this was clearly shown via substitutions such as midfielder Romeo Lavia for full-back Malo Gusto as well as adjustments like moving Fernández to defensive midfielder as well as a “pocket strat” that countered Spurs perfectly - shifting Marc Cucurella to central midfield. These tweaks were the foundation of Chelsea’s second-half comeback and their like have been the hallmarks of Maresca’s success this season.

Though the season isn’t even half over yet, the difference between the Chelsea of this season and the Chelsea of the past two has been like night and day. The West Londoners are no longer the laughing stock of the capital - thanks to Maresca, they’ve re-established themselves as a true force and maybe, just maybe, the only club that could unseat Liverpool from the top of the Premier League.

The Weekly Take, Issue 338: Not the Title Defense They'd Hoped For

Real Madrid had already gotten off to a slow start to their Champions League campaign even before their match against Premier League leaders Liverpool. Los Merengues’ title defense had not been going well following prior losses to Lille and AC Milan. For that reason, when Real headed to Anfield to face off against the Reds, it was perhaps their most important match thus far this season - and against a serious contender for the Champions League title, no less.

As things turned out, Real never even stood a chance. The final scoreline of 2-0 to Liverpool was somewhat flattering to Real - it could’ve, and likely should’ve, been larger. Despite dominating the match more or less right from opening kick-off, Liverpool didn’t open the scoring until early in the second half. Alexis Mac Allister played a one-two with Conor Bradley before advancing into Real’s penalty area, then firing a shot into the bottom corner of the net.

Following this, both teams traded penalty misses. Real first had a chance to equalize from the spot after Andy Robertson fouled Lucas Vázquez in the penalty area; however, Kylian Mbappé squandered Real’s opportunity, having his penalty saved by Liverpool goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher. Nine minutes later, Ferland Mendy conceded a penalty after his own foul on Liverpool winger Mohamed Salah, only for Salah to blow the ensuing spot-kick; his attempt wasn’t even close.

Liverpool continued to outplay their Spanish opponents in every facet of the game and to the surprise of absolutely nobody, scored their second goal in the 76th minute when Cody Gakpo found the net with a header off a cross sent in by Robertson.

Real’s loss - their third in five Champions League matches this season - leaves them in 24th place at the end of the fifth of eight league phase matchdays. In a scenario which would have seemed inconceivable when the season started, Real are in serious danger of failing to even qualify for the play-ins for a spot in the round of 16.

Real haven’t even been close to the force they were just last season when they won their second Champions League title in three seasons and also reclaimed their La Liga title after finishing ahead of arch-rivals Barcelona by 10 points. This season, however, it’s not just about Real’s struggles in continental play - domestically, while not far behind Barça right now, the obvious lowlight of Real’s 2024-25 La Liga campaign to date has to have been their crushing 4-0 home defeat against Barça. Of course, this leads to the question - just what’s going wrong at the Santiago Bernabéu?

A sizable amount of the blame has to be placed on Mbappé. The Frenchman arrived in the Spanish capital over the off-season following the expiry of his contract at PSG, having decided against activating its extension clause. Despite all the fanfare which his arrival at Real brought, Mbappé’s form has been inconsistent since the beginning of the season - a far cry from the level which had previously seen him establish himself as a perennial Ballon d’Or contender.

Real’s injury crisis can’t be overstated either. Among the players currently sidelined are Rodrygo, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and most notably of all, Vinícius Júnior. Would it have been the case that at least one of them would have made the difference against Liverpool? Not necessarily - but when the team sustains such major losses, it means that the entire setup has to be adjusted; against Liverpool, it was obvious that this wasn't what Real was comfortable with.

Speaking of Vinícius, the off-field drama surrounding him and thus Real has undoubtedly been an unwelcome distraction. After finding out in advance that the Brazilian winger would not win the Ballon d’Or, Real opted to boycott the ceremony in Paris - a decision that understandably invited sharp criticism from the football world in general. Real’s detractors have long derided them as the “golden child” of the powers that be; the fact that their refusal to attend the ceremony didn’t lead to any official response further intensified the backlash.

All things considered, while there’s more than enough time for Real Madrid to claw their way back into Champions League or La Liga contention, this definitely isn’t how they envisioned the first third of their season going. They’re not out of it by any means - but it will be a difficult road back.

The Weekly Take, Issue 337: Now in Uncharted Territory, the Situation Has Changed

Nottingham Forest’s hot start to the Premier League season had already been attracting much attention heading into their match against Arsenal. Prior to this matchday’s fixtures, Forest were fifth in the league and easily on pace for their best league finish since the 1994-95 campaign when they finished third. This was even more impressive given the fact that the Midlands club finished 17th - just one spot above relegation - last season.

However, Forest’s match against Arsenal proved that for all their improvement in such a short span of time, they still have some way to go yet. Forest succumbed to a one-sided 3-0 loss at the Emirates Stadium; the gap in quality was obvious from opening kick-off. Bukayo Saka opened the scoring for the Gunners in the 15th minute; seven minutes after the break, Thomas Partey extended Arsenal’s lead to 2-0. To cap things off, substitute Ethan Nwaneri scored the Gunners’ third with just four minutes of regulation time remaining. It was the 17-year-old’s first career league goal in only his eighth appearance.

Earlier this season, the hype around Forest began to grow after picking up an impressive 1-0 away win against Liverpool. This would soon be followed by a three-match winning streak which elevated Forest to third place after 10 matchdays. However, in hindsight all three of those wins were somewhat deceiving because of the teams against which they were - Crystal Palace, Leicester City, and West Ham United; all three teams are in danger of being relegated this season.

Thus far, a great deal of the credit surrounding Forest’s strong start to the season has gone to head coach Nuno Espírito Santo. However, it might be beginning to appear that this praise might have been premature. While he has indeed presided over a clear improvement at the City Ground, this is where the true test of his coaching skills will come - in the quest to get Forest into a UEFA Conference League or perhaps even Europa League qualification berth.

To be fair to him, this is something which Espírito Santo has done before. In 2018-19, he took Wolverhampton Wanderers to a Europa League spot by finishing seventh in the league in the season directly after Wolves were promoted from the Championship. However, he hasn’t been able to match that level since, with his last two seasons at Molineux Stadium ending in 13th- and 10th-place finishes respectively prior to a brief, ill-fated stint at Tottenham Hotspur, then barely avoiding relegation with Forest last season. Could he have rediscovered his touch? More needs to be seen before anything can be rightly said about that.

There’s no question that many of Forest’s players have evidently taken a step up from last season. The likes of Chris Wood, Ola Aina, and Murillo have all been playing the best football of their respective careers as of late. However, once again, the question has to be raised: very few members of this Forest team have ever been involved in a serious chase for qualification for continental play. It certainly isn’t out of the question that as the season progresses and the pressure increases, they might just end up folding under the spotlight.

That being said, thus far Forest have easily outpaced every expectation of them and on the surface, even a top-10 finish would be well beyond what they might have expected at the beginning of the season. However, now that they’ve been somewhat established in this position for a while and with the race for qualification spots for next season’s European club tournaments being closer than it has ever been, Forest might want to reset their targets because they do have a realistic chance at them - but with these reset targets, performances like the one they just had against Arsenal certainly won’t cut it.

There are certainly opportunities to be had in the upcoming January transfer window; this arguably represents a key opportunity for Nottingham Forest if they’re to seriously contend for continental play next season. While Forest indeed seem like a completely different team to that of the two seasons since their Premier League return after more than two decades, there’s a chance for them to take the next step sooner rather than later - but can they prove that they can hang with the establishment?

The Weekly Take, Issue 336: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

The penultimate matchday of the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League group stage saw Italy knock Belgium out of the tournament by beating them 1-0. The Azzurri’s victory also ensured that they would be in the driver’s seat of Group A2 heading into the final matchday; a draw in their upcoming home match against France would clinch first place in the group and allow them to avoid a tougher quarterfinal match-up against another first-placed team.

A match that could realistically have swung either way was decided early on via Sandro Tonali’s goal in the 11th minute. The Newcastle midfielder took advantage of some horrendous defensive play by Belgium to score his first career goal in international play.

Italy certainly haven’t had the best run of form in international tournaments as of late. Their Euro 2020 victory now appears to be an obvious outlier; since then they’ve failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, then have been knocked out of Euro 2024 in the round of 16. Even before all of this, Italy missed out on the 2018 World Cup as well.

By the time the 2026 World Cup in North America begins, it will have been 20 years since the last time Italy advanced beyond the group stage of a World Cup. However, if the signs they have shown thus far in this season’s Nations League are anything to go by, there may yet be signs of life in international football’s biggest fallen giant.

In this season’s Nations League, Italy certainly seem to have turned it around. Despite having been drawn into a difficult group containing France and Belgium, Italy have been majorly impressive thus far. After picking up a 3-1 upset win against France at the Parc des Princes during the opening matchday, Italy haven’t looked back - and a lot of this has to do with head coach Luciano Spalletti. After Italy crashed out of Euro 2024 against Switzerland, Spalletti retooled the team’s general strategy and direction.

Spalletti has begun to favour greater positional flexibility, making the team’s tactical setup much more versatile especially when compared to the years when predecessor Roberto Mancini is in charge. It’s this adaptability which served Italy well in their away victories over France and Belgium. This is especially noticeable when Italy are attacking; their setup allows certain players more opportunities to make key off-ball runs to catch opposing defenses off-guard. Spalletti has also utilized decoy plays, often making use of pass-and-move sequences and diagonal balls for these. Both were key parts of the Serie A title that Spalletti coached Napoli to; he’s now brought them into the national team to much effect.

But beyond the X’s and O’s, Spalletti appears to have instilled a degree of grit and heart within the team that wasn’t nearly as present before. Although it might not have been the most outstanding performance, Italy were able to gut it out in a way that they perhaps wouldn’t have been able to just a few months back - let alone a year or two ago. This was most clearly seen in the second half when Italy guarded their lead with a level of intensity that’s sorely been missing over the past decade-plus.

It’s also worth mentioning that several of the players who had previously been fringe selections but have now begun to play larger roles have certainly elevated this team. Players such as Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori, Alessandro Buongiorno, and Samuele Ricci have now become regular starters; this wasn’t the case until the Nations League began, and so far, they not only seem to have slotted in seamlessly, but are playing at a higher level than the players from whom they took their starting spots. More importantly, this appears to be sustainable and not a mere flash in the pan - for all we know, perhaps Italy might have done better at Euro 2024 if one or more of them had seen more playing time.

Of course, it’s way too soon to unequivocally declare that Italy are truly back. However, most of the signs right now are - after years of struggle with the exception of Euro 2020 - pointing in the right direction. While not the outright favourite by any means, they’re looking like a dark horse contender to take the Nations League title.