The Weekly Take, Issue 388: Three in a Row?

Ever since winning the World Cup for the fourth time in 2006, Italy's tournament record has been utterly disastrous. In the four tournaments since then, the Azzurri were knocked out in the group stage in 2010 and 2014 before failing to qualify for the tournament in 2018 and 2022 - missing back-to-back tournaments for the first time ever.

With the 2026 World Cup approaching and the group stage of the European World Cup qualifiers drawing to a close, there's a very real chance that Italy might fail to qualify for a third consecutive World Cup after missing out on first place in Group I and thus direct qualification for next year's showpiece in North America after a one-sided 4-1 loss against Norway.

Italy actually opened the scoring in the 11th minute after an error from Norwegian full-back Julian Ryerson put Federico Dimarco in position to set up his Inter Milan teammate Francesco Pio Esposito. Esposito duly finished off the chance to put Italy a goal ahead; however, that would be as far as the home side would get.

In the second half, Norway put the match to rest with an avalanche of goals. It started with winger Antonio Nusa's equalizer in the 63rd minute before - just as everyone expected - Erling Haaland took over. The Manchester City superstar proceeded to leave absolutely no doubt about the result with two goals in a one-minute span to clinch Norway's World Cup qualification. A stoppage-time goal scored by substitute Jørgen Strand Larsen added the exclamation point to the victory.

For Norway, the victory meant that they would advance to the World Cup for the first time since 1998 and only the fourth time in the country's history. As for Italy, they will now have to wait to find out who their opponents will be in the upcoming playoff rounds which will decide the last teams to secure World Cup qualification - and the way things are going, it wouldn't even be surprising to see them once again miss out.

As of right now, most of the teams who would find themselves in the playoffs would fancy their chances against an Italy team who made heavy weather of what should've been a relatively easy set of opponents in the group stage. It also needs to be kept in mind that Italy are likely to have something of a mental block by this point as it was in the playoffs where Italy were eliminated in both of the last two World Cup qualification campaigns - by Sweden for the 2018 World Cup and by North Macedonia for 2022.

The mid-campaign decision to fire previous head coach Luciano Spalletti and replace him with Gennaro Gattuso has now gone exactly how the naysayers expected it to. Despite winning all his prior matches at the helm, Gattuso had barely faced any true competition as all of those were against vastly inferior sides. Against Norway, however, Gattuso's Italy team were completely outclassed in every way. As he has been multiple times over the course of his coaching career, Gattuso looked completely out of his depth. It's certainly possible that if he isn't replaced before the playoffs in March, Italy won't make it to the World Cup once again.

The entire team looked disjointed and out of sync. Many of Norway's main goalscoring opportunities, including one of their goals, came as the result of a misplay on the part of the Italian defense. Up front, Italy had multiple significant chances to extend the lead in the first half following Esposito's opening goal with wingers Dimarco and Matteo Politano being the main culprits.

With the exception of Euro 2012 and 2020, Italy have seen almost no success since winning the World Cup almost two decades ago. Even if they somehow make it through the upcoming playoff round, it's a near-certainty that they will be knocked out of the World Cup in the opening round - an outcome which would extend their streak of failing to advance from the opening round to at least 24 years. That's a figure which would've seemed unthinkable when Fabio Cannavaro hoisted the trophy at the Olympiastadion back in 2006.

The Italian national team today is a mere shadow of their glory days - and this latest result further drives this point across. The road ahead doesn't look the least bit promising.

The Weekly Take, Issue 354: International Football's Most Storied Rivalry Adds a New Chapter

The quarterfinals of the UEFA Nations League saw arch-rivals Germany and Italy paired against each other - and over the two legs, the fixture more than lived up to the reputation created by many iconic Germany/Italy matches over the years.

The first leg at San Siro saw Italy take an early lead through a goal scored by Sandro Tonali. However, things turned around after the break. Tim Kleindienst, who had replaced Mainz striker Jonathan Burkardt at half-time, found the net just a few minutes later and thus put Die Mannschaft back on level terms. In the 76th minute, Germany took the lead after Leon Goretzka scored with a header off a cross from Bayern Munich teammate Joshua Kimmich. It was also Kimmich’s second assist of the match after having set up the prior goal scored by Borussia Mönchengladbach striker Kleindienst. The first leg would end 2-1 to Germany.

After the first half of the second leg at Signal Iduna Park, it looked as though Italy were dead in the water. Germany took a 3-0 match lead, and thus a 5-1 aggregate lead into the half-time break, following goals scored by Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, and Kleindienst. At that point it seemed like a wrap; however, the Azzurri mounted a furious comeback in the second half. Fiorentina striker Moise Kean scored in the 49th and 69th minutes to give Italy a glimmer of hope. In stoppage time, Giacomo Raspadori scored a penalty to put Italy a step closer - but they ultimately ran out of time; Germany would advance to the semi-finals.

At this point, it’s safe to say that Germany vs Italy is the greatest rivalry in the history of international football. This was an instant classic without any question; however, as pulsating as this Nations League fixture - especially the second leg - was, it still doesn’t even match up to the most iconic matches between the two.

This is a rivalry which has seen matches like the 1970 World Cup semifinal, the 1982 World Cup final, the 2006 World Cup semifinal, and the Euro 2012 semifinal. While Germany/Italy might not have the sheer incendiary nature of Brazil/Argentina, the historic weight of Germany/Netherlands, or even the sociopolitically-charged element that Argentina/England has, when it comes to strictly the on-field product, no other rivalry has churned out banger after banger like this one has.

In addition to all those epic matches, another element that further elevates this rivalry is the fact that over the years, there have been clear narratives running through it. For example, until 2022, Germany had never beaten Italy in a tournament match without needing at least extra time. This changed in spectacular style when Germany beat Italy 5-2 in their second of two group matches in the 2022-23 Nations League.

On the flipside, some of Italy’s wins over Germany have bolstered their own narratives as well. Cases in point: their 1982 World Cup and Euro 2012 victories spearheaded by a pair of controversial strikers: Paolo Rossi and Mario Balotelli respectively. Despite the off-field drama that had surrounded each of them even long before their respective tournaments, both silenced the doubters with match-winning performances and etched their names into the history of this iconic rivalry.

One final reason why Germany/Italy is the greatest of all international football rivalries is the fact that it involves two of the most decorated and historically successful international football teams ever. Although it may be true that Italy haven’t even made it to the last two World Cups while Germany largely struggled throughout that same period, that’s been a minor blip - both Germany and Italy have almost always been elite or close to it at the same time and for the vast majority of the respective team histories. After all, eight World Cups and five European Championships between the two speak for themselves.

No other international football rivalry brings every element of what makes a rivalry truly epic to the table the way the one between Germany and Italy does. After something of a lull following their Euro 2016 match as both teams entered difficult periods, Europe’s two most successful international teams ever are both once again back on the rise—and without any question, this iconic rivalry will have so much more to offer over the years to come.

The Weekly Take, Issue 336: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

The penultimate matchday of the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League group stage saw Italy knock Belgium out of the tournament by beating them 1-0. The Azzurri’s victory also ensured that they would be in the driver’s seat of Group A2 heading into the final matchday; a draw in their upcoming home match against France would clinch first place in the group and allow them to avoid a tougher quarterfinal match-up against another first-placed team.

A match that could realistically have swung either way was decided early on via Sandro Tonali’s goal in the 11th minute. The Newcastle midfielder took advantage of some horrendous defensive play by Belgium to score his first career goal in international play.

Italy certainly haven’t had the best run of form in international tournaments as of late. Their Euro 2020 victory now appears to be an obvious outlier; since then they’ve failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, then have been knocked out of Euro 2024 in the round of 16. Even before all of this, Italy missed out on the 2018 World Cup as well.

By the time the 2026 World Cup in North America begins, it will have been 20 years since the last time Italy advanced beyond the group stage of a World Cup. However, if the signs they have shown thus far in this season’s Nations League are anything to go by, there may yet be signs of life in international football’s biggest fallen giant.

In this season’s Nations League, Italy certainly seem to have turned it around. Despite having been drawn into a difficult group containing France and Belgium, Italy have been majorly impressive thus far. After picking up a 3-1 upset win against France at the Parc des Princes during the opening matchday, Italy haven’t looked back - and a lot of this has to do with head coach Luciano Spalletti. After Italy crashed out of Euro 2024 against Switzerland, Spalletti retooled the team’s general strategy and direction.

Spalletti has begun to favour greater positional flexibility, making the team’s tactical setup much more versatile especially when compared to the years when predecessor Roberto Mancini is in charge. It’s this adaptability which served Italy well in their away victories over France and Belgium. This is especially noticeable when Italy are attacking; their setup allows certain players more opportunities to make key off-ball runs to catch opposing defenses off-guard. Spalletti has also utilized decoy plays, often making use of pass-and-move sequences and diagonal balls for these. Both were key parts of the Serie A title that Spalletti coached Napoli to; he’s now brought them into the national team to much effect.

But beyond the X’s and O’s, Spalletti appears to have instilled a degree of grit and heart within the team that wasn’t nearly as present before. Although it might not have been the most outstanding performance, Italy were able to gut it out in a way that they perhaps wouldn’t have been able to just a few months back - let alone a year or two ago. This was most clearly seen in the second half when Italy guarded their lead with a level of intensity that’s sorely been missing over the past decade-plus.

It’s also worth mentioning that several of the players who had previously been fringe selections but have now begun to play larger roles have certainly elevated this team. Players such as Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori, Alessandro Buongiorno, and Samuele Ricci have now become regular starters; this wasn’t the case until the Nations League began, and so far, they not only seem to have slotted in seamlessly, but are playing at a higher level than the players from whom they took their starting spots. More importantly, this appears to be sustainable and not a mere flash in the pan - for all we know, perhaps Italy might have done better at Euro 2024 if one or more of them had seen more playing time.

Of course, it’s way too soon to unequivocally declare that Italy are truly back. However, most of the signs right now are - after years of struggle with the exception of Euro 2020 - pointing in the right direction. While not the outright favourite by any means, they’re looking like a dark horse contender to take the Nations League title.

The Weekly Take, Issue 203: European Champs to European Chumps

In what will undoubtedly go down as one of the most iconic upsets in the history of international football, North Macedonia stunned Italy 1-0 in a 2022 World Cup qualifier. Aleksandar Trajkovski scored a stoppage-time goal to clinch a spot in a winner-takes-all match against Portugal with a spot in the World Cup on the line and silencing the crowd at the Stadio Renzo Barbera.

The Balkan team's victory ensured that the Azzurri would fail to qualify for the global showpiece tournament for a second consecutive edition - something that has never happened before for one of the world's most decorated international teams. Prior to their failure to qualify for the 2018 tournament, Italy had qualified for every World Cup since 1962.

This was a match which the reigning European champions should have had no business losing. The Italians launched a veritable fusillade at the North Macedonian goal, attempting 32 shots compared to just three from their opponents. With 66% of the possession, Italy were fully in control of proceedings right from the opening kick-off. By every metric except for, of course, the most important one of all, Italy should have cruised to victory, but it was just not to be.

There's plenty of blame to be doled out for yet another failure on Italy's part. For starters, goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma deserves a good deal of scrutiny. A goalkeeper of Donnarumma's calibre should have been able to save Trajkowski's shot. However, the Paris Saint-Germain goalkeeper made a crucial error in a critical match for the second time in a month after having already committed one which caused PSG to lose their Champions League round of 16 tie against Real Madrid.

Think back to Italy's victorious Euro 2020 campaign. In it, Donnarumma was Italy's best player, putting the team on his back at times and saving three penalties against England in the final to give Italy a first European title since 1968. Somewhat surprisingly, since then, he has faltered on multiple occasions when he has been needed most.

I have gone on and on about the effect which being at a club like PSG has on its players' mentalities. It appears that this is true in Donnarumma's case. When he starred for Italy during Euro 2020, he had not yet played even one match for the French club, but not even half a year after arriving at the Parc des Princes, his big-game mentality has severely declined. This isn't unique to Donnarumma - the same can be said of his PSG teammates Neymar, Kylian Mbappé, and even Lionel Messi.

Head coach Roberto Mancini must also shoulder some of the blame. Mancini got it completely wrong with Italy's starting 11. His decision to forgo Mario Balotelli as part of his team backfired. Though Balotelli has had a checkered and somewhat memetic career up to this point, his playstyle would have been the perfect counter to North Macedonia's tactical approach and would likely have led to one or more goals - not necessarily scored by Balotelli himself; however, his presence and physicality would have done much to open up the front third for his teammates.

Mancini's selection of Emerson Palmieri at full-back was also a poor one. Federico Dimarco and Cristiano Biraghi are both better options but were both ignored in favour of the Chelsea player. This reflects another failure on Mancini's part: blind loyalty to highly-capped players. Emerson has 26 caps to Biraghi's 11 and Dimarco's none; however, the latter two were overlooked despite being obviously superior players.

Serie A's top brass must also come under fire. They decided against postponing Matchday 30 of the domestic league, thus denying the players more time to prepare for this crucial qualifier. This reduced preparation time was also a likely contributor to their failure in Sicily - something almost everyone should have seen coming but which Serie A's administration somehow did not.

Regardless of whether Italy qualify for the 2026 World Cup, it will have been at least 12 years since their most recent tournament and at least 20 since their most recent appearance in the World Cup's knockout rounds. With the exception of France in the 1960s and 1970s, this is an unprecedented run of failure in the history of any of international football's traditional powerhouses.

Can Italy get back to the top of the mountain? They might - but it will take many years and wholesale changes at all levels.

The Weekly Take, Issue 166: The Triumph of the Collective

At the beginning of Euro 2020, I would not have believed anyone who would have said that Italy would go on to win it all. Before the tournament, I felt that their ceiling was capped because their best player, goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, was not at the same level as other teams' superstars such as England's Harry Kane, France's N'Golo Kanté, Belgium's Kevin De Bruyne, and Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo, among others. I also felt that the Azzurri's supporting cast was not quite on the level of those of the teams I just mentioned.

As it turned out, I and all other doubters would be proven wrong. In the final, Italy beat England in a penalty shootout following a 1-1 draw after extra time. Donnarumma saved two penalties to win the shootout for Italy including Bukayo Saka's spot-kick which would have kept England in contention had it gone in.

So, just how did they do it?

For one thing, the current Italy team is the personification of the word "synergy". Though they might not have the sheer star power of Belgium or Portugal or England, all the players on this Italy squad fit their roles perfectly while complementing everyone else's. It's certainly true that while you'd expect players like Federico Chiesa, Lorenzo Insigne, Marco Verratti, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, and Jorginho to be important contributors to this team, you would probably not have expected this from them - at least on paper. It was also thought that both members of Italy's legendary centre-back pairing of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini were past their prime and had very little left in the tank.

However, in the actual matches, it was a different story. Almost every Italian player outperformed individual pre-tournament expectations. It soon became obvious that this team was set up to magnify each player's strengths while minimizing the impact of their weaknesses - something teams with far more talent were unable to do.

Of course, much credit for this has to go to head coach Roberto Mancini. Despite being a three-time Serie A champion and Premier League champion in 2012, there had always been a nagging belief that Mancini's list of accolades overrated his actual coaching skill. What's more, Mancini had not won any major titles since City's iconic, drought-breaking Premier League triumph nine years ago.

In just one tournament, Mancini has permanently elevated his reputation. On Italy's path to the title, he easily outcoached Roberto Martínez, Luis Enrique, and Gareth Southgate. His tactical superiority was evident in the final; Italy easily countered everything England had. Such was Mancini's strategic mastery in the final that it was somewhat of a surprise that the match went to a penalty shootout.

It may also seem strange to think that a serious injury helped Italy win the title. Yet, that may be exactly what happened. In Italy's quarterfinal victory over Belgium, defender Leonardo Spinazzola suffered one of the most severe sports injuries possible: a torn Achilles. The team quickly rallied around him, offering an incredible amount of support. There seemed to be a growing sentiment within the team to "win it for Spinazzola". That may just have given Italy the extra motivation they needed to go all the way.

Although a lack of experience often hampers a team in any tournament, the fact that the only players with more than 50 caps before the tournament were Bonucci and Chiellini may have worked in Italy's favour. This is because most of this team were unburdened by the biggest failure in Italy's recent football history: missing the 2018 World Cup.

When Italy were knocked out by Sweden in the decisive World Cup qualifying tie four years ago, only nine of Italy's Euro 2020 squad were in the 23-man matchday roster. In addition, Insigne and Donnarumma were unused substitutes on that day. Thus, most of the current Italian squad had the additional advantage of not being mentally affected by that result.

Looking into the future, questions must now be asked about the possibility of Italy winning a record-equalling fifth World Cup in Qatar next year. Though they might not necessarily be the outright favourites, what they have shown us during this tournament proves that you cannot underestimate this Italy team.

Without a shadow of a doubt, the rebuild is complete - and then some.