Sunday, August 27, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 272: La Masia Has Done It Again

Many football experts have argued that La Masia, Barcelona's legendary youth academy which has arguably produced more all-time greats than any other club's, is the world's finest pipeline of top young prospects in global football today. If the Blaugrana's recent La Liga match against Villarreal provides any indication, it appears that this iconic institution has unearthed yet another gem.

Barça fought back from a one-goal deficit in the second half to register a come-from-behind 4-3 away victory over Villarreal. The Catalan club actually had a 2-0 lead which they wound up squandering; Gavi and Frenkie de Jong each scored within a three-minute window early in the first half. Villarreal would then level the score before halftime with Juan Foyth and Alexander Sørloth finding their way onto the scoresheet. After the break, Álex Baena put Villarreal one goal ahead, but they would surrender this lead as Ferran Torres and last season's league goalscoring leader Robert Lewandowski would fill the net for Barça to clinch all three points.

Without any question, the standout player of this match was 16-year-old winger Lamine Yamal. In just his third career match in La Liga, Yamal played like a seasoned veteran. The Catalan teenager clearly ran the show in the final third. His match started with a perfect cross to set up Gavi's opening goal, a header at the far post. Yamal hassled the Villarreal defense throughout and created several chances for himself; two of his shots struck the post. The second of those shots, following a blazing run from the right flank, landed in front of Lewandowski after it hit the post; the Polish striker then cleaned up with a tap-in.

Even what would normally be regarded as the sole blemish on an otherwise spectacular performance was actually a good play. Yamal received a yellow card late in the first half, but this was the right decision because had he not fouled Alfonso Pedraza, Villarreal could easily have pushed forward, threatened a third goal, and entered half-time with all the momentum on their side.

So impressive was Yamal's performance that even some of the Villarreal fans applauded him when he was substituted for Ansu Fati. Of course, Barça head coach Xavi was effusive in his praise for the club's newest star in the making, emphasizing the fact that his status as a La Masia graduate did not entitle him to a starting spot and that even at just 16, he had earned it like every other starter on the pitch. Xavi was also particularly impressed by Yamal's decision-making, stating that he almost always chose correctly in key situations.

This match made it clear what many within the club had long known: Yamal appears to be a transcendent talent in the making. Many of today's top players did not even make their professional debuts until they were two or three years older than Yamal is now. As if that weren't enough, Yamal isn't doing this at a no-name club in a mediocre (or even worse) league. He's doing this at Barcelona - one of the most venerated clubs in world football and a perennial contender not just for La Liga, but for the Champions League as well.

It's almost difficult to wrap one's mind around Yamal's true potential. There is no better club for him to maximize his potential than Barça, where young academy talents are prioritized and Catalan identity is a focal point of the club's ethos. While his journey to the top will almost certainly not be a straight line, once he reaches his stratospheric ceiling, he would likely be a Ballon d'Or contender in almost every single year during his prime. For the next 15 years or more, defenses across Europe and beyond will certainly not be relishing a fixture against Barça.

The word "generational" is applied to promising young players way too often these days. This has the effect of cheapening the term when bestowed upon those who truly deserve the tag. However, in this case the evidence can no longer be denied: Lamine Yamal is a generational prospect - one who might just end up being the next in the illustrious line of legends to suit up at Camp Nou in that red and blue jersey.

Saturday, August 19, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 271: A Near-Total Overhaul - But for What Return?

The standout fixture of this season's opening matchday of the Bundesliga saw Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig. Heading into this season, both teams were generally deemed to be among the primary threats to end Bayern Munich's unprecedented 11-year reign as Bundesliga champions.

Leverkusen got off to a hot start, scoring two goals in an 11-minute first-half span. Jeremie Frimpong and Jonathan Tah put Leverkusen 2-0 ahead. However, just four minutes after Tah's goal, Dani Olmo pulled one back for Die Bullen. After half-time, Leverkusen's rising star Florian Wirtz restored their two-goal advantage before Loïs Openda added another to Leipzig's column. In the closing stages of the match, Openda had a golden opportunity to secure Leipzig a share of the points, but the Belgian striker somehow managed to hit the post with an open-goal tap-in.

Though this was just the first match of the season, it could nevertheless be regarded as something of a reality check for Leipzig. This was an off-season of major upheaval at the Saxony club. During the recent transfer window, Leipzig sold Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea, Dominik Szoboszlai to Liverpool, and Joško Gvardiol to Manchester City. The sales of these three players earned the club a total of €220 million. Other notable players to have recently left the Red Bull Arena include André Silva on loan to Real Sociedad, Alexander Sørloth on loan to Villarreal, and Marcel Halstenberg to Hannover 96.

Leipzig wasted absolutely no time at all in their rebuild. This same off-season, they signed seven players at a cumulative cost of €161 million and added two more on loan, one of whom was the highly-regarded Dutch midfielder Xavi Simons who is regarded as a young prospect with a tremendously high ceiling. Other acquisitions such as Openda and Austrian duo Nicolas Seiwald and Christoph Baumgartner added depth to what was beginning to look like a possible sleeper pick to win a first-ever league title in the event of a Bayern slump, similar to last season's scenario but in which no club took full advantage. Leipzig's recent 3-0 victory over Bayern in the DFL-Supercup appeared to confirm their status as such.

However, Leipzig's loss to begin their Bundesliga campaign highlighted that in spite of their many additions, this is still a flawed team. All three goals which Leipzig conceded have one thing in common: they all came off passes from out wide. Leipzig's defensive capabilities on the wings have often come under scrutiny, particularly since head coach Marco Rose favours a rather unconventional 4-2-2-2 formation. This formation packs the centre of midfield and leaves relatively little wide coverage, thus often requiring one or more midfielders to head out wide to assist the full-backs. Leipzig's current personnel have not always been up to the task, and it showed against Leverkusen.

One possible issue which seemed obvious in this match but which may resolve itself over the course of the season is team chemistry. With so many new signings, questions about how long it would take for the team to gel were always going to arise. This lack of chemistry was evident throughout the match. Several times, Leipzig appeared rather disjointed and incohesive. Except for Openda, all of Leipzig's new signings on display turned in sub-par performances on their respective club debuts - unfamiliarity with Leipzig's tactics and system is likely to be the root cause.

In reality, Leipzig's Supercup victory over Bayern was somewhat misleading despite the lop-sided scoreline. Leipzig only had 32% of the possession and were outplayed for vast swathes of the match but came out on top with all three goals - a Dani Olmo hat-trick - coming against the run of play. Obviously, it would not be sustainable to depend on such outlier results to fuel a potential Bundesliga title run.

At this point, RB Leipzig have become one of world football's staple "almost but not quite" clubs. Despite having won back-to-back DFB-Pokal titles, finished in the top four in the Bundesliga in six of the past seven seasons, and made it to the Champions League semifinals in the 2019-20 season, Leipzig have never been able to take the final step, especially in the domestic league. It's still extremely early, but the signs at the moment do not appear promising.

Monday, August 14, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 270: A Strong Start in the Top Four Chase

One of the key fixtures in La Liga's opening matchday of the 2023-24 season saw Villarreal host Real Betis - a match which saw both of Spain's Europa League representatives this season facing off. Betis took the lead after 20 minutes through Ayoze Pérez. After the halftime break, Jorge Cuenca scored Villarreal's equalizer, a header off a free kick from Álex Baena. Just when it seemed as though the match would finish in a draw, substitute Willian José scored Betis' winning goal in the fifth minute of stoppage time to secure the three points for the Andalusian club.

Betis have been on the fringes of the top-four race in each of the past three seasons, having finished fifth or sixth in the league in all three. Los Verdiblancos have not cracked the top four since their 2004-05 season.

During the recent off-season, Betis spent just €2 million new signings. A total of five players including Héctor Bellerín from Sporting CP, Marc Bartra from Trabzonspor, and free agent Isco, best-known for his nine-year stint at Real Madrid, were added to the roster. While these players are not necessarily scrubs, none of them even come close to moving the needle as far as Betis' pursuit of a top-four spot and qualification for next season's Champions League is ; concerned. On the other hand, Villarreal signed Ben Brereton Díaz from Blackburn Rovers and Alexander Sørloth from RB Leipzig. Brereton Díaz is tremendously underrated and has merited a spot at a better club for quite some time now, while Sørloth is fresh off a breakout season on loan at Real Sociedad.

The ongoing transfer window is active until September 2, giving Betis further opportunities to strengthen their squad in key areas. Betis have been linked with Barcelona defender Eric García as well as two players who have had previous stints at the Estadio Benito Villamarín: Real Madrid midfielder Dani Ceballos and Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Giovani Lo Celso. Of the aforementioned players, Ceballos is by far the most intriguing possibility. Despite never having been a regular starter during his four seasons at the Santiago Bernabéu, Ceballos would easily be one if he were to return to Betis. While central midfield is not particularly a position of need for Betis at the moment, Ceballos would nevertheless be a clear upgrade at the position and slot in nicely alongside Guido Rodríguez.

If Betis are to make a serious push for a top-four spot, it would likely be in their best interest to add another proven goalscorer. Last season, Betis scored just 46 league goals; even more worryingly, 15 of them came via just one player: Borja Iglesias. A similar goalscoring output will simply not get it done as far as Champions League qualification is concerned. While transfer rumours have connected Barça winger Abde Ezzalzouli to Betis, even his acquisition would likely not make a major impact on Betis' goalscoring tally. Last season, the Moroccan scored just four league goals during a loan spell at Osasuna. Although Betis have not been linked with anyone who could be claimed to even be a somewhat prolific goalscorer, they could realistically make an attempt to sign someone like Enes Ünal, Marvin Ducksch, or Elye Wahi - any of whom would give Betis some additional punch up front.

That being said, if Betis' match against Villarreal is anything to go by, the signs so far appear encouraging. Despite having far less possession than their opponents, Betis absorbed the pressure that Villarreal launched at them and made full use of the chances that came their way. While Betis are not the favourites to finish in the top four by any means, more performances like this - especially against direct rivals also pursuing that fourth Champions League berth - will greatly boost their chances of doing so.

This season, if Real Betis are to break their drought of 18 years, a lot has to go right. They could certainly do with one or two more key signings. Betis might also need a sudden hot streak somewhere during the season or a slump from one or both of Real Sociedad and Villarreal. Despite a down year last season, the threat posed by cross-town rivals Sevilla can't be underestimated either. Betis have started off on the right path - but can they keep it going all season long?

Sunday, August 6, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 269: No Fool Between the Goalposts

Ten Serie A titles. One World Cup. Over a thousand matches played. Three FIFPro World XI appearances as a goalkeeper. And countless other achievements over a truly remarkable career of 28 years.

Earlier this week, Gianluigi Buffon called time on one of the greatest football careers we have ever seen - at any position, let alone "for a goalkeeper". The legendary Tuscan shot-stopper claimed almost every possible accolade over an almost three-decade period during which he forever carved his name into Italian and world football immortality.

In 1996, an 18-year-old Buffon was elevated to Parma's starting 11 for the first time. Though already seen as a promising prospect, almost no one could have imagined what was about to unfold in the years and decades to come. While Buffon's first season as a starter did begin to pique interest, the first sign that he was truly something special came a season later. At the time, Ronaldo Nazário was the consensus best player in the world. Playing for Inter Milan against Parma, Ronaldo stepped forward to take a penalty kick - only for it to be denied by Buffon.

The following years saw consistent high league finishes as well as a UEFA Cup and a Coppa Italia title coming Parma's way; Buffon's stock continued to rise throughout, culminating in a €52 million move to Juventus in 2001. When adjusted for inflation, this would be equivalent to an €88 million transfer today - completely unheard of for a goalkeeper.

Five years after signing for the Bianconeri, Buffon played a pivotal role in undoubtedly the apex of his storied career: Italy's World Cup victory in 2006. Buffon kept an unprecedented five clean sheets as the Azzurri claimed the world title for the first time since 1982. While this record has since been equalled by Iker Casillas in 2010, it will likely never be broken owing to the drastic uptick in goalscoring since that era - an uptick largely fuelled by changes to the football metagame which will forever leave a significant influence on football tactics.

In extra time of the final of the 2006 World Cup, Buffon made his greatest and most important save when he tipped Zinedine Zidane's would-be title-winning header over the crossbar. That save swung the momentum of the match and became one of the most iconic moments in World Cup history.

Buffon's qualities as a leader were recognized when he was appointed as the Italian national team's captain in 2010; he would take up the same role at Juve a year later. Buffon did not have to wait long for success with the armband on; he would win the Serie A title in his first season as Juve captain. He would go on to win seven of the next eight Scudetti with Juve; the only one which he did not was 2018-19 when he played for Paris Saint-Germain.

For all his achievements, Buffon is equally as, if not more, well-known for his almost incomparable longevity. As if playing until the age of 45 weren't already impressive enough, a 39-year-old Buffon won the Serie A Footballer of the Year and The Best FIFA Goalkeeper awards in 2017; that same year, he was also selected to the FIFPro World XI and the UEFA Champions League Squad of the Season. While it's certainly true that goalkeepers tend to last longer, Buffon was doing all of this at an age when most players would already have been retired for several years.

The only significant blemish on Buffon's career is one that is often brought up when discussing his legacy. Buffon is undoubtedly one of the greatest players to have never won the UEFA Champions League. During his 19 years at Juve, Buffon made the Champions League final on three occasions but came up short each time. That being said, his Juve teams were unlucky enough to run into a dynastic team each time - AC Milan in 2003, Barcelona in 2015, and Real Madrid in 2017.

All things considered, Gianluigi Buffon ends his career in the goalkeeping pantheon - at a level where his only peers are Lev Yashin and Iker Casillas. The claim that Buffon is the greatest goalkeeper of all time is a reasonable one. We will almost certainly never see a career like his again.

Monday, July 31, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 268: Wasting No Time Retooling

After suffering a gut-wrenching Bundesliga title loss in the final minutes of the last matchday of the 2022-23 season, Borussia Dortmund's off-season has been eventful indeed. Their off-season has been highlighted by the sale of Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid. One of the most promising young prospects in world football today, the English midfielder had just come off a breakout season for both club and country, landing him a €103 million move to the Spanish capital.

Despite receiving this massive influx of money, Die Schwarzgelbe nevertheless found themselves in a somewhat awkward position: having come so close to the league title just weeks prior, their squad was now far weaker than that of arch-rivals and league champions Bayern Munich. This was particularly true of Dortmund's midfield given not only Bellingham's departure but also that of Mahmoud Dahoud to Brighton & Hove Albion. However, less than a week ago, Dortmund not only shored up their midfield's depth and signed a player tasked with replacing at least some of Bellingham's tremendous impact; they also did so at Bayern's expense.

Dortmund signed Marcel Sabitzer from Bayern for a transfer fee of €19 million. The Austrian midfielder arrived at Signal Iduna Park after having spent the past two seasons as a Bayern player including a half-season on loan at Manchester United. Sabitzer's loan stint was largely due to the fact that he did not receive much playing time at Bayern; had he stayed there, the same would likely have been true in the upcoming season. Primarily a central midfielder, Sabitzer is almost equally adept at the defensive midfield and number 10 roles and will thus add some degree of flexibility and versatility to Dortmund's midfield.

Sabitzer's playstyle is a good fit at Dortmund. His primary strengths are playmaking and ball interception - both key points of emphasis in Dortmund's tactical approach since Edin Terzić began coaching the team on a permanent basis at the beginning of last season. Sabitzer will likely slot in as part of a three-man midfield alongside fellow off-season acquisition Felix Nmecha who was signed from Wolfsburg for €30 million as well as newly-appointed captain Emre Can.

The key question surrounding Sabitzer is if he is able to return to his level of play at RB Leipzig, the club for which he played for six years before signing for Bayern in 2021. Having not been a first-team regular for two years, there will likely be some level of rust during his first few Dortmund matches. The real test will be later in the season, by when it will be evident if he has either dropped off for good or if he had simply never been given ample opportunity during his time in Bavaria.

Of course, no one is expecting Sabitzer to be the difference-maker in Dortmund's attempt to finally prise the Bundesliga title out of Bayern's grip following Bayern's unprecedented 11th consecutive league title last season. That being said, Dortmund's acquisition of Sabitzer sends a clear message to Bayern. In a way, it's a form of validation that Dortmund's post-World Cup surge last season was no fluke, that they are indeed for real, and that they might have a genuine chance to win the Bundesliga for the first time since 2012.

It should also be remembered that Dortmund still have a huge amount of money with which to work following Bellingham's transfer to Real. While Dortmund have never historically been a club which has consistently attracted top-shelf talent, it would not come as a major surprise if they were to open up their now expanded wallet and attempt a move for a big name - especially since Bayern have already signed Kim Min-jae from Napoli for €50 million and are continuing their pursuit of Tottenham striker Harry Kane.

The 2023-24 season is the most highly anticipated at Borussia Dortmund in many years, for it will be the litmus test about whether the club's red-hot finish to last season was a one-off or a sign that they have returned to being one of Europe's elite clubs. The signing of Marcel Sabitzer is a solid first step - but will they go on to build on this? The answer to that question will likely play a big role in determining their fortunes this season.

Sunday, July 23, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 267: It Finally Seems to Be Happening

After a six-year stint at Paris Saint-Germain including a transfer saga running for multiple years now, Kylian Mbappé finally looks set to leave the Parc des Princes. It seems almost certain that the club which Mbappé will join will be Real Madrid. The Frenchman has been linked to Los Merengues for several years now; however, according to the latest information, PSG have been in contact with Real regarding Mbappé's proposed arrival in the Spanish capital.

No official transfer bids have yet been made; having said that, Transfermarkt places Mbappé's likely transfer fee at an eye-popping €180 million. Were he to be sold at such a fee, Mbappé's transfer would be the second-most expensive in football history, only trailing that of his would-be ex-teammate Neymar who left Barcelona for PSG after PSG paid the Catalan club €222 million in 2017.

During his six years at his hometown club, Mbappé has progressed from an enticing young prospect to one of the all-time greats. At just 24, Mbappé already has a World Cup title and a Nations League title on the international front. At club level, he has won Ligue 1 five times and the Coupe de France three times with PSG. He is a perennial Ballon d'Or contender and has already scored almost 300 career goals at all levels in all competitions. However, in spite of all this success, the one title he most desperately seeks continues to elude him: the Champions League.

Year after year after year, PSG seem to find new and more spectacular ways to underperform on Europe's biggest stage. Apart from a run to the final in the pandemic-stricken 2019-20 season, Mbappé has experienced failure time and again in the Champions League. At this point, PSG choking in the Champions League is almost an inevitability. This fact only makes Mbappé's impending move to Real even more likely.

After losing in the semifinals of last season's Champions League, Real wasted almost no time in loading up for next season's campaign. Last month, Real signed English midfielder Jude Bellingham for €103 million. Having just had a breakout season at Borussia Dortmund while also playing an excellent World Cup, the 20-year-old Bellingham appears set to be one of the world's best midfielders for at least the next decade if not longer. Bellingham has joined the likes of Federico Valverde, Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and Eduardo Camavinga to form by far the best young core in world football. The addition of Mbappé would all but guarantee Real at least two Champions League titles over the next five or six seasons. It would almost certainly give birth to a new dynasty at the Santiago Bernabéu.

Real have also just seen club legend Karim Benzema leave for Saudi Pro League side Al-Ittihad, leaving a gaping hole up front. While Mbappé is not primarily a centre-forward, he is more than capable of playing the position. Mbappé would likely take up the role of the "false nine" at Real - a position filled by Neymar and Lionel Messi at various points during Mbappé's time at PSG.

By signing for Real, Mbappé would also likely exponentially increase his chances of winning two major individual honours which he has never claimed - the Ballon d'Or and the European Golden Shoe. Five times over the past six seasons, Mbappé has finished in the top four of the Ballon d'Or rankings with a personal best of fourth in 2018. Mbappé has also been in the top five of the European Golden Shoe leaderboard four times in five seasons including two second-place finishes and one third-place. At Real, he would almost certainly be guaranteed multiple Champions League titles which would exponentially elevate his Ballon d'Or chances. Additionally, playing with a team stacked to ungodly levels like that which Real would have with him on board would lead to a plethora of goalscoring opportunities and thus put him in prime position to chase the European Golden Shoe as well.

From Kylian Mbappé's perspective, joining Real Madrid has absolutely no downsides, especially when considering that PSG have almost certainly hit their ceiling and have no further room for improvement. Mbappé has the opportunity to establish himself as the centrepiece of an iconic, dynastic team - something only very, very few footballers will ever be able to do.

Sunday, July 16, 2023

The Weekly Take, Issue 266: The Camel in the Room

At this point of the current off-season transfer window, I would undoubtedly be remiss not to mention the Saudi Pro League.

The Saudi league first rose to international attention following Al-Nassr's signing Portuguese legend Cristiano Ronaldo in January. At that point, most people (myself included) paid the league no further mind, assuming that Ronaldo just happened to choose Saudi Arabia for one final major payday before the end of his career; although he was the first big name to choose Saudi Arabia, countless other footballers over the years had gone to lesser yet well-paying leagues to finish their respective careers.

However, as has been shown by the ongoing transfer window, the Saudi Pro League has emerged as a genuine force with which to be reckoned. Multiple big-name players have departed Europe to join a Saudi club and claim an enormous pay cheque in the twilight of their careers. One notable exception is Sergej Milinković-Savić; earlier this week, the Serbian midfielder left Lazio for Al Hilal after an eight-year stint at the Roman club despite still being in his prime. Al Hilal paid €42 million to sign Milinković-Savić.

There are several points which I could address with regard to the Saudi Pro League; I will do so accordingly in the following paragraphs.

The first and most obvious point of discussion is the future of the league. Despite the overwhelming amount of money at its disposal, I do not see it ever eclipsing Europe's major football leagues at the top of global club football's hierarchy. More than likely, the vast majority of the players who will leave top European leagues for Saudi Arabia will be similar to Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and N'Golo Kanté - players close to the end of their careers, though the occasional big name in his prime might be swayed to come due to the outsized salaries awaiting him.

Think back to the days when the Chinese Super League was throwing around major money to lure elite footballers to China. This never materialized; as has so far been the case in Saudi Arabia, the majority of players who made the trip of thousands of kilometres east were either players in their sunset years or those struggling to get regular playing time at their European clubs. Now, I am fairly certain that the Saudi Pro League will have far more staying power than its Chinese counterpart because the Chinese Super League's money-spinning ways were punctured by the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdowns in China - the toughest in the world. The Saudi Pro League will not have that additional hurdle to overcome; that being said, this would still not automatically turn it into a genuinely elite football league.

Another key point relates to Newcastle United. The Tyneside club's owners are Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) who also own four Saudi Pro League clubs. As a result of this arrangement, it is likely that on several occasions over the coming seasons, the Magpies will receive one or more players from the Saudi league - likely on loan deals. As a club which has leveraged its newfound wealth to become a bona fide contender for Champions League qualification on an annual basis, bringing these players to St. James' Park (even if only on loan) could just be the boost the club needs to get a leg up over direct rivals.

The final point I will address is the most controversial of all: the use of ownership of a sports team as a form of image rehabilitation, more popularly known as "sportswashing". While it is true that in many ways, the Saudi Pro League is indeed an example of sportswashing, the reality is that sportswashing in football has an extensive history. Even before the current Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain teams, there have been examples like Chelsea under Roman Abramovich, the CCCP-backed Dynamo Kyiv and CSKA Moscow, the Franco-backed Real Madrid, and countless others.

Sportswashing has even happened on a micro level; consider the example of Herbert Diess, the Volkswagen Group CEO who presided over the automotive company's infamous emissions scandal. Diess is a partial owner of Bayern Munich. To sum it up, while I do not condone sportswashing, the fact is that it is and always has been a part of football and will unfortunately continue to be so in the future. The status of the Saudi Pro League does not change that fact one iota.