The Weekly Take, Issue 190: The Blue Machine Rolls On

Boxing Day matches are an iconic staple of every Premier League season, and the standout fixture on that day in the 2021-22 campaign featured Manchester City hosting Leicester City.

In an astonishing match that included nine goals, two penalties, and an improbable comeback effort that fell just short, Manchester City hung on for a 6-3 victory despite almost blowing a four-goal lead. Kevin De Bruyne, Riyad Mahrez, İlkay Gündoğan, and Raheem Sterling put the Citizens 4-0 ahead well before halftime. However, after the break, Leicester reduced the deficit to 4-3 within 20 minutes of the restart. In the end, two further goals from Aymeric Laporte and Sterling ensured that Manchester City would have their ninth consecutive league victory, keeping daylight between themselves and closest rivals Liverpool.

Over the past few seasons, City's dominance of the Premier League has become almost routine. Since the 2017-18 season, City have won the league three times in four years, with their second-place finish behind Liverpool in 2019-20 beginning to look more and more like an aberration. During these four seasons, City have averaged a barely believable 91 points per season and are on pace to have 94 this time around.

What arguably makes City's success even more remarkable is the fact that they're doing this without a true focal point up front. At this point, Sterling and Bernardo Silva are City's leading goalscorers despite having just seven apiece. This may very well be the truest form of head coach Pep Guardiola's style of play manifesting itself - one which reached its apex during his four years in charge of a dynastic Barcelona team.

Guardiola's tactics also seem to have benefited certain players who have shown a great deal of improvement this season such as Phil Foden, João Cancelo, and perhaps most notably, Rodri. The Spanish midfielder is currently playing at a level far beyond any he has attained until now.

This is a team in which every piece seems to fit almost perfectly. Though City might not have any of the five or arguably even 10 best players on the planet, they have an absolute laundry list of players ranging from "very solid" to "elite". When we talk about how this City team was built, we tend to focus on the enormous amount of money brought in by club owner Sheikh Mansour. However, we must give him credit where it is due - unlike several other billionaire owners (some of whom we can easily think; no names will be given, though), he actually seems to attend to the team's personnel needs and act accordingly. Most of City's big-money signings have also proven to have been worth the massive outlays (and then some, in certain cases).

All this having been mentioned, it will be interesting to see how City handle the Champions League when it resumes in February, as it has always been on European football's biggest stage that things have historically begun to go wrong for the Manchester club. That being said, they did reach last season's final, only to fall to Chelsea in the showpiece match. City will resume their Champions League campaign against Sporting CP - a fixture which they should have absolutely no trouble winning. After that, it will be revealed whether last season's deep run was the anomaly or the new norm for a City team which would have finally figured out continental play. That being said, the fact that City topped a group which included Paris Saint-Germain is certainly a good sign.

The main question, ultimately, has to be this: is this peak City or do they have another level which they have not yet unlocked? As great as City are right now, one can't help but shake the feeling that City's current level might not be able to land them the coveted Premier League/Champions League double.

That being said, City have shown ruthless efficiency all season long and are the clear favourites to land a fourth Premier League title in five seasons. Yet somehow, Manchester City almost seem underrated - perhaps they are now at the point at which many just take their dominant level of play, especially on the domestic front, for granted.

Though there's still half a season to be played, another league title seems likely to be heading to the Etihad Stadium.

The Weekly Take, Issue 189: Stepping Into Uncharted Territory

Sevilla consolidated their position as Real Madrid's closest challengers for this season's La Liga title by beating the slumping Atlético Madrid 2-1. Ivan Rakitić's seventh-minute opener for Sevilla was cancelled out by an equalizer scored by Felipe. However, Lucas Ocampos would ensure that Los Rojiblancos would leave with all three points.

Sevilla's victory kept them in second place in La Liga, five points behind leaders Real. If Sevilla maintain their current pace, this might turn out to be the Andalusian club's finest league season in well over half a century.

The last time Sevilla won La Liga was in the 1945-46 season, while the last time they even finished in the top two was in 1956-57. Yet, that could all change this season. No team has gained more from the sudden declines of perennial title contenders Atlético and Barcelona than have Sevilla.

The bulk of Sevilla's success this season has come on the strength of their impressive defense. With just 12 goals conceded in 17 league matches, they are currently tied for second in this statistic among all the clubs of Europe's four major leagues. Their starting back four of Gonzalo Montiel, Marcos Acuña, Diego Carlos, and Jules Koundé as well as goalkeeper Bono have emerged as one of the most stifling backlines in world football - and a highly underrated one at that.

Now in his third season in the dugout at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, head coach Julen Lopetegui has also turned his reputation almost completely around. Prior to taking the job at Sevilla in 2019, Lopetegui was best known for his ill-fated stints in charge of the Spanish national team and subsequently Real. His selection for the position at Sevilla was greeted with skepticism from many. However, he has thoroughly silenced the doubters since then by leading Sevilla to back-to-back Champions League berths and a Europa League title. He has also been a key reason why Sevilla have been able to keep pace in what could so easily have turned out to be a one-sided title race.

Sevilla are already in the midst of their best era since the 1940s and 1950s. Over the past eight seasons, they have qualified for the Champions League five times, reaching the quarterfinals in the 2017-18 season. They have also won four Europa League titles and reached the final of the Copa del Rey twice. However, all of these would pale in comparison to the significance that a first league title in 75 years would bring.

On paper, this would seem to be an extremely tough ask, given the star power and financial might that Real possess. However, it isn't impossible - a five-point gap can easily be overcome, especially with so many matches still to be played. All it would take for Sevilla to claim an edge in the title race is one short slump on Real's part - something that could happen to any team at any time.

The upcoming January transfer window will be crucial towards Sevilla's title push. Sevilla currently have neither a true playmaker nor a major goalscoring threat. These points are evidenced by the following facts: Rafa Mir is their leading goalscorer in the league with just five goals, while Acuña leads the club in league assists with three. Bear in mind that almost half the season has already been played; on a per-match basis, these figures do not hold up well at all. Sevilla thus ought to prioritize offensive output during the next transfer window - it could be their key towards mounting a genuine league title push and perhaps even toppling Real.

Nevertheless, their Champions League performance notwithstanding, Sevilla's season thus far has exceeded even what their most ardent fans would have dreamed possible. This team seems to have just the right blend - that "X-factor" that no Sevilla team has ever quite had - until now.

Of course, there's always the possibility that Sevilla's early-season form will end up fizzling out, allowing Real to win the league by a wide margin. However, based on what Sevilla have shown us thus far, their form seems to be sustainable. All it will take now is one final push. Whether that push will come, however, is yet to be seen.

Is this the year at last? Maybe, maybe not - but they're closer than almost all their fans can remember them being.

The Weekly Take, Issue 188: Their Best Chance Has Been Squandered

As the group stage of this season's Champions League came to a conclusion, one of the standout fixtures of the final matchday was the match between Real Madrid and Inter Milan. Real won 2-0 to clinch first place in Group D. Toni Kroos and Marco Asensio scored the goals which ensured that Los Merengues would most likely avoid one of the favourites to win the tournament in the round of 16. Real were also aided by a completely needless Nicolò Barella red card which came due to a scrap with Éder Militão.

Inter will now have to play against a first-placed team in the round of 16. It is now rather unlikely that they will advance to the quarterfinals; thus, as far as Champions League participation is concerned, Inter probably won't make a deep run for the first time since reaching the quarterfinals in the 2010-11 season, when they were the reigning champions.

Looking back, Inter's best chance to be a serious contender to win a fourth Champions League title in the club's history was last season. This was a team which was utterly loaded with talent. Last season's squad featured players such as Achraf Hakimi, Christian Eriksen, Lautaro Martínez, Stefan de Vrij, and of course, star striker Romelu Lukaku. Inter also had elite coaching through Antonio Conte.

Inter won their first Serie A title in a decade last season, finishing ahead of city rivals AC Milan by a massive 12-point margin. However, their Champions League campaign could not have been in starker contrast. Despite having been placed into a fairly easy group containing Borussia Mönchengladbach, Shakhtar Donetsk, and the weakest Real team in many years, the Nerazzurri somehow managed to finish dead last among the quartet and thus even missed the Europa League berth provided to third-placed teams.

Had Inter advanced from the group stage as had been expected, a deep run could've been on the cards. For that matter, if things had broken just right, they could even have conceivably gone all the way. A second-place finish in their Champions League group last season would've seen Inter face off against Manchester City in the round of 16. While Inter would not have been the favourites over two legs against City, they would have had a puncher's chance at the very least. Certainly, Inter would've offered more of a challenge than did Gladbach - City's actual opponents in that round.

If Inter had advanced to the quarterfinals, they would've played against Borussia Dortmund. This matchup would likely have come down to a duel between Lukaku and Dortmund ace Erling Haaland. Once again, an Inter victory would not have been inconceivable. While a subsequent two-legged fixture against Paris Saint-Germain as well as the final against Chelsea would also have been unlikely victories, it would not have been as though Inter would've had no chance whatsoever in either matchup.

However, Inter are now a great deal weaker today than they were last season. Over the off-season, Conte left and was replaced by former Lazio head coach Simone Inzaghi. Chelsea signed Lukaku for €115 million; Hakimi also left the San Siro to join PSG for €60 million. Eriksen, meanwhile, has all but officially retired after having suffered a cardiac arrest while playing for Denmark at Euro 2020. None of Inter's off-season acquisitions to replace these players particularly moved the needle; this is somewhat disappointing given the enormous amounts of money Inter received for the departures of Lukaku and Hakimi.

Of course, Inter's season as a whole has not yet been completely lost. They are currently second in Serie A, just one point behind Milan. Inter are currently riding a four-match winning streak in the league. With Napoli slumping and Juventus continuing to struggle, Inter might just end up with back-to-back Scudetti for the first time in 12 years. A league and cup double, though rather unlikely, is therefore also not out of the question.

However, it's now highly unlikely that Inter will be the ones to break Italy's Champions League-winning drought which dates back to their own triumph during their legendary treble season of 2009-10. They might now be ruing their missed opportunity last season. Would they have won it all? Probably not - but their chances were definitely more than "almost zero" as they are now.

The Weekly Take, Issue 187: Same Old Story - but with a Twist

For Borussia Dortmund fans (including me), this is becoming a familiar story - one of which we have become thoroughly bored.

The latest edition of Der Klassiker saw Bayern Munich beat Dortmund 3-2. Robert Lewandowski took out his frustration over his Ballon d'Or snub on his former club, scoring two of Bayern's goals including the winning goal from the penalty spot. With the victory, Bayern extended their lead over Dortmund at the top of the Bundesliga to four points as they once again march seemingly unopposed to yet another league title.

For the umpteenth time, Dortmund came up short against their Bavarian rivals. Die Schwarzgelbe have now lost eight consecutive league matches against Bayern. Discounting their DFL-Supercup victory as it was not a meaningful match, Dortmund's most recent win over Bayern which was relevant came in the league in November 2018.

At this point, it is as much a question of mindset as it is of ability. Even though Dortmund have seldom been the favourites heading into Der Klassiker, a run of eight consecutive losses does make one wonder - do they genuinely believe they can actually beat Bayern? Too many times, Dortmund have simply folded against Bayern when the pressure has been at its highest.

While the most recent match was by no means Dortmund's worst showing against Bayern, it is nevertheless worth noting that they lost by one goal which came relatively late. Though it is commendable that they were able to keep the score level for as long as they did, losing the match in such a way might speak to a lack of execution in high-pressure scenarios.

However, unlike previous matches against Bayern, this edition of Der Klassiker had a notable subplot which will be expected to run all through this season as beyond: the possible transfer of Erling Haaland. Transfer rumours linking Dortmund's Norwegian ace to Real Madrid have only become louder in recent weeks. The centre-forward has reportedly claimed to favour a move to the Spanish capital if he were to leave Signal Iduna Park at the conclusion of this season.

Real are expected to offer Dortmund a transfer fee of €100 million or more to bring Haaland to the Santiago Bernabéu. This is once again a scenario familiar to Dortmund fans - watching a star centre-forward develop at the club, emerge as one of the world's elite players, and eventually leave. It happened with Robert Lewandowski, and it happened with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The sad reality is that Haaland is almost certain to join them in doing so. The question is more of "when" rather than "if".

That said, there is one key difference between Haaland's future departure and those of big names before him. Unlike the departures of Lewandowski and Aubameyang, Haaland's impending departure will leave an even bigger void than those before him did. Unfortunately, Dortmund have clearly become over-reliant on Haaland. Although there are solid players such as Jude Belllingham, Julian Brandt, Mahmoud Dahoud, and Donyell Malen are all up-and-comers who likely have solid futures ahead of them, none seem set to ever even come close to the level at which Haaland is now playing.

Although the season thus far may not have gone according to plan for Dortmund, there is one avenue by which they might be able to salvage their season: the Europa League. Haaland's injury earlier in the season caused Dortmund to lose key Champions League matches and be forced to enter the Europa League starting from its round of 32. Now, Dortmund will be the overwhelming favorites to win the Europa League. While it may not have the prestige of the Champions League, it is, as they say, "better than nothing".

It has been 11 years since under the all-time great coaching of Jürgen Klopp, Dortmund first established themselves as a genuine force to be reckoned with. Since then, the club has enjoyed an unprecedented era of success. Is it possible that this era may soon be coming to an end? Perhaps, but it's also possible that Dortmund might be able to finish it strongly.

This time around, it might not just be Dortmund's current season at a crossroads - it could very well be the next few after that as well. The 2021-22 season seems to be shaping up to be Dortmund's most pivotal in a very long time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 186: Time to Panic Yet?

With just one Champions League matchday remaining, Atlético Madrid find themselves at risk of not only failing to qualify for the tournament's last 16, but perhaps even missing out on the Europa League spot provided to third-placed teams in each group. This shocking turn of events is now a real possibility after Atlético lost 1-0 in a crucial Champions League group-stage match against AC Milan. Junior Messias came off the bench to score the only goal in the 87th minute.

To say that the season thus far has not gone according to plan for the reigning La Liga champions would be an understatement. They are currently fourth in the league and trail city rivals Real Madrid as well as Real Sociedad and Sevilla. There is a genuine possibility that Atlético might fail to qualify for next season's Champions League. If they were to do so, such a failure would occur for the first time since the 2011-12 season.

In the Champions League, Atlético's loss to Milan put them in last place in Group B. Their match against Porto on December 7 will prove to be decisive. Should Atlético be unable to leave Portugal with the victory, they will have been eliminated in the group stage - a stunning turn of events for a team expected to be in contention for a first Champions League title in club history.

At the beginning of this season, no one could have expected Atlético to be struggling like this. Considering the fact that Real did not significantly strengthen their squad during the off-season transfer window as well as the constant state of dysfunction which continues to plague Barcelona, Atlético were in prime position to clinch back-to-back league titles for the first time in over 70 years.

In addition, Atlético's Champions League group of Liverpool, Porto, and Milan was a group which, while deemed to be fairly difficult, was one from which Atlético were generally expected to advance to the knockout stage. Instead, they might very well be knocked out in the group stage for just the second time over the past nine seasons.

Many of Atlético's main players have undoubtedly underperformed this season. Players such as Antoine Griezmann, Ángel Correa, Stefan Savić, and most alarmingly of all, Jan Oblak have been nowhere near the levels that they reached last season. Despite being Atlético's top scorer with seven league goals, Luis Suárez's play has been inconsistent outside of his finishing. The only players who have been impressive for Atlético this season are Yannick Carrasco and José Giménez.

Atlético also jeopardized their prospects this season with an unimpressive transfer window. Of their three off-season signings, none have managed to make a significant impact; they are not particularly expected to do so, either. Their haul of Marcos Paulo, Rodrigo De Paul, and Matheus Cunha for a combined €65 million was rather underwhelming. Even their decision to bring back Griezmann for a second stint on a loan deal from Barça may have proven to be a poor one. It appears that Griezmann's best days are now permanently in the rearview mirror. He is clearly not the player he was just two to three years ago. At 30, it is unlikely that he will ever return to that level.

Of course, it cannot be forgotten that Atlético have the ultimate trump card in their corner: head coach Diego Simeone. Time and again, the Argentinean has proven his strategic genius. If there were ever to be a coach who could lead Atlético out of this predicament, it would surely be "El Cholo". For almost the entirety of his tenure at the Wanda Metropolitano, Simeone has thrived in the underdog role. It appears that he will once again have to drag Atlético out of a tough spot as they seek to turn their season around.

The next transfer window in January could be pivotal for Atlético's success during the second half of the season. An infusion of some much-needed new blood could be exactly the shake-up that Atlético need to get their season back on track.

There are teams which have achieved great success after having been in even more dire positions than Atlético's current situation, so it isn't impossible by any means for Atlético to salvage their season. However, if things do not improve soon, it might just be time to be legitimately concerned about Atlético Madrid.

The Weekly Take, Issue 185: It Was Just a False Dawn

In the lead-up to this past matchday's Premier League clash between Liverpool and Arsenal, many Arsenal fans were understandably expecting at least a respectable result. The Gunners were on an eight-match unbeaten streak in the league, winning six of those matches. After five years of general underperformance, maybe, just maybe, things were finally starting to turn for the better at the Emirates Stadium.

However, Arsenal were handed a reality check by the Reds. Liverpool utterly eviscerated Arsenal in a dominant 4-0 victory. Sadio Mané opened the scoring in the 39th minute; after the halftime break, Diogo Jota, Mohamed Salah, and Takumi Minamino added to Liverpool's margin of victory.

Arsenal were thoroughly outclassed by their opponents from the northwest in every way imaginable; this was obvious even from the opening kickoff. Despite their prior hot streak, this match clearly showed that Arsenal still have a very long way to go if they are to even think of once again becoming league title contenders. Such a status seems to be, at the very least, five years away - and even that might be generous.

Even their recent unbeaten run belies their true level. Not one of their six wins came against genuinely high-quality opposition; this fact exposes Arsenal as nothing more than "flat-track bullies". In addition, prior to those matches, Arsenal had lost three consecutive matches including a 2-0 loss against London rivals Chelsea as well a 5-0 shellacking at the hands of Manchester City. Arsenal are therefore now 0-0-3 against all three of this season's Premier League title contenders; they scored no goals and conceded a whopping 11 across those matches.

So, just what does the road ahead hold for Arsenal?

For one thing, it may be time to start scouring the market for a centre-forward. As great as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been in North London, he is now 32 and beginning to show clear signs of decline. His 10 league goals last season represented his lowest career tally in a major league apart from his first professional season in 2007-08, when he was just a teenager fresh out of AC Milan's youth academy. It was also his lowest total overall since the 2010-11 season.

The main question regarding "Auba" when he was still in his prime was always about what would happen once he ages and loses his once-explosive athleticism. While the Arsenal captain is certainly not a scrub by any means, it may be time to move on from him.

Even qualifying for next season's Champions League will be an uphill battle for Mikel Arteta's team because Arsenal have once again kneecapped themselves with yet another underwhelming transfer window. This past off-season, Arsenal spent over £140 million on new acquisitions. However, of their seven signings, the only one to have moved the needle in any notable manner has been goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale. While Ben White has been reasonably consistent at centre-back, his performances thus far have not justified his lofty price tag of £50 million. None of Arsenal's other signings have been particularly impactful thus far.

Arteta himself has to be scrutinized as well. On many occasions, he has shown himself to lack the tactical nous required to succeed as a coach at this level. Bear in mind that although he led Arsenal to the FA Cup title in his first season at the club, he did so by beating Chelsea who were then coached by the utterly incompetent Frank Lampard - someone who could be outstrategized by almost anyone.

This might actually be as good as it will get for Arsenal this season. The fact that their goal difference currently stands at -4 shows that they have been somewhat fortunate to have accumulated as many points as they have thus far. Regression to the mean could happen at any time. It is looking increasingly likely that Arsenal will fail to qualify for the Champions League for a sixth consecutive season.

If Arsenal are to become truly relevant once more, major changes are required. Everything about this club, both on the field as well as off it, evidences a club clearly in decline. While it's much too early to claim that Arsenal are on a one-way path to long-term irrelevancy, the signs do not look promising at the moment.

The Weekly Take, Issue 184: A Giant About to Fall?

The 2018 World Cup was notable for the large number of favoured teams which failed to qualify for the tournament. Teams such as Chile, the United States, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, and most shockingly of all, Italy and the Netherlands all could not make it to the quadrennial showpiece event in Russia.

Fast forward to today and the 2022 World Cup qualifiers might be on their way to claiming their first major scalp. In the latest instalment of the Clásico del Río de la Plata, one of the most iconic rivalries in international football, Argentina beat Uruguay 1-0. A seventh-minute goal scored by Ángel Di María proved to make the difference. The victory also made it almost certain that La Albiceleste would feature in next year's tournament.

Argentina's victory came largely against the run of play; they only attempted seven shots to Uruguay's 19. Uruguay also had seven corner-kick attempts to Argentina's two. However, Óscar Tabárez's team just didn't have enough to beat their arch-rivals.

Uruguay's loss puts them in a dicey situation as far as World Cup qualification is concerned. With five matches remaining, Uruguay are sixth in the 10-team CONMEBOL qualifiers. The top four teams qualify automatically, while the fifth-placed team will enter a two-legged playoff against a team from another confederation.

Not many people expected Uruguay to be where they are right now with so few matches to be played. La Celeste are currently ranked 15th according to the FIFA Rankings and have reached a semifinal and a quarterfinal over their last three World Cup appearances. However, if the qualifiers were to end today, Uruguay would shockingly be denied a spot by Chile and Colombia.

This is not a team which should be where they are right now. Bear in mind that the current Uruguay team contains players such as Diego Godín, Fernando Muslera, Lucas Torreira, Rodrigo Betancur, Martín Cáceres, and of course, legendary strikers Edinson Cavani and Luis Suárez. In addition, Tabárez, who has been Uruguay's for over 17 years spanning two stints, is one of the most accomplished coaches in international football.

The question then becomes: where is it going wrong?

Perhaps the biggest issue which plagues this Uruguay team is cohesion. Although the team of today is not necessarily much less talented than those of 2018 or 2010, Uruguay right now do not seem to be gelling in the same way that the squads of past years did. The new additions who have replaced the now-retired players, while no slouches themselves, do not always prove to be the best fits.

Players such as Torreira, Bentancur, and Federico Valverde were primarily benchwarmers at the time of the previous World Cup but have since established themselves as key players and regular starters. While it may be true that their entry into the first team represents something of a transitional phase for Uruguay, not many could have guessed that the drop-off in the team's overall cohesion would be quite this steep. This could be seen in Uruguay's results at the 2021 Copa América when they were eliminated by Colombia in the quarterfinals.

Uruguay's in-game execution is also somewhat of a cause for concern. Their propensity to make the occasional miscue has been costly in multiple matches during their qualifying campaign. This was even evident in the recent match against Argentina. It was a cheap turnover by Joaquín Piquerez which allowed Di María to score the only goal of the match.

In that same match, Uruguay's passing accuracy was just 71% - well below that of their opponents. These minor yet frequent lapses have added up, costing Uruguay matches and precious points which just might cause them to miss out on the World Cup for the first time since 2006.

On paper, most would expect Uruguay to nevertheless make it through there next few fixtures and qualify for the World Cup. However, time is running out and the CONMEBOL qualifiers are known to be the most gruelling of any confederation's. 

That said, it's still too early for Uruguay to panic, especially considering that their next four matches are against the four teams directly below them in the standings. However, if two or three of these matches pass and they still find themselves on the outside looking in, we might very well see one of the biggest casualties of these World Cup qualifiers.