The Weekly Take, Issue 160: Everything But the Mentality

The 2020-21 European club football season came to its conclusion on Saturday with the Champions League final at Porto's Estádio do Dragão. Chelsea claimed the second Champions League title in club history by beating the favoured Manchester City 1-0. Kai Havertz scored the goal which will forever write his name into the Stamford Bridge history books.

Though some might already have forgotten, the seeds of Chelsea's victory were planted in their league match against City on May 8. In that match, Chelsea emerged victorious by a scoreline of 2-1. However, a key incident in that encounter occurred when Sergio Agüero stepped forward to take a penalty after Billy Gilmour fouled Gabriel Jesus in the penalty area.

Agüero attempted a Panenka penalty which was easily saved by Chelsea goalkeeper Édouard Mendy. Although the Argentine missed his penalty, he sent a loud and clear message to Chelsea: City did not consider the Blues worthy of their respect.

The Panenka, regardless of its outcome, is one of the most obvious methods by which a player or team can taunt an opponent. The message it sends is clear: "we do not take you seriously". Unfortunately for Agüero and City, Chelsea were not about to roll over and accept this insult.

Anyone who watched the Champions League final could tell that Chelsea simply "wanted it more" than City did. The London club's grit, determination, and desire for victory stood in clear contrast to the Citizens' somewhat lackadaisical, entitled attitude. It felt as though City just assumed that they could just show up and leave with the victory.

Had Agüero never attempted the Panenka in the first place, Chelsea might not have been quite as motivated to win as they were. As it turned out, that incident was exactly the push that Chelsea needed to raise their game when the stakes were at their highest.

City's general level of play in the highest-pressure matches must also surely be called into question. This is a team which has clearly revealed itself to be nothing more than a front-runner of the highest order, especially in the Champions League. Over the past six seasons, City have lost in the quarterfinals three times, in the semifinals once, and now, in the final once.

It only gets worse when one considers the fact that for five seasons in a row, City have been eliminated at the hands of a team against which they had been favoured. Considering the enormous amount of money which City have spent over this period, this is an extremely bad look for them.

At this point, the question has to be asked: where do City go from here? It is looking increasingly as though they have reached their peak. On paper, this City team seems to have all the elements for success in place. In Kevin De Bruyne, they have a perennial Ballon d'Or contender who can be the foundational piece of a team that could win multiple Champions Leagues. The Belgian is a passer and playmaker of a calibre that fewer than 10 - and arguably five - players have ever been.

City have the supporting cast as well. Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, Ederson, İlkay Gündoğan, Rúben Dias, Rodri, Raheem Sterling - this is a team loaded to the brim with talent. They are even coached by Pep Guardiola who is unquestionably a top-10 coach of all time. However, their failures when the lights have been brightest and the pressure at its highest speak for themselves. Agüero's Panenka incident was just the latest manifestation of City's shortcomings as far as mentality is concerned.

City have the talent, the strategy, and of course, the money. To their credit, they have obtained the desired results domestically: three Premier League titles and an FA Cup over the past four seasons speak for themselves.

However, as far as the biggest prize in European club football is concerned, City might just have blown their biggest chance for many years to come.

There are some things which money cannot buy. These are what are sometimes referred to as "the intangibles". It is these intangibles which turn talent into results. For all of Manchester City's wealth, they are genuinely lacking in this most critical of areas - a fact which was shown to the world on the biggest stage of all.

The Weekly Take, Issue 159: The Greatest Trophyless Run Ever Ends

This matchday saw all four major European domestic leagues wrap up. Atlético Madrid beat Valladolid to clinch their first La Liga title since 2014, while Inter Milan, Manchester City, and Bayern Munich all concluded victorious league campaigns of their own.

Amidst the final-day action, one match which was overlooked by many signalled the end of an era in two ways. RB Leipzig succumbed to a 2-1 loss to Union Berlin. Justin Kluivert's opener for Leipzig was cancelled out by a Marvin Friedrich goal. Max Kruse would later score Union's winning goal in stoppage time.

The match was Leipzig head coach Julian Nagelsmann's last in charge of the Saxony club. One of the most accomplished young coaches in world football at just 33, Nagelsmann will leave Die Bullen and take over at Bayern on July 1.

Nagelsmann's departure from Leipzig also almost certainly put an end to what must be the greatest multi-year stretch without any silverware that there has ever been.

Since earning promotion to the Bundesliga in 2016, Leipzig have finished second and third in the league twice each. On two occasions, they lost in the final of the DFB-Pokal. Last season, they reached the Champions League semifinals before losing to Paris Saint-Germain.

Every other team to have put together a stretch at such a level won at least one trophy during it - except Leipzig. You could conceivably make a case for Tottenham 2014-19 or Napoli 2015-19, but for me, Leipzig takes the somewhat back-handed honour over both.

Leipzig's primary case over Tottenham lies in the fact that their league campaigns were dramatically more difficult. Bayern's complete domination of the Bundesliga has rendered almost every league season a race for second place. Tottenham, on the other hand, have not had to deal with such an adversary in the Premier League. Even more damningly, they only managed to finish third in the 2015-16 Premier League season - a title which they could easily have won if they hadn't lived up to the Tottenham stereotype and faltered down the stretch.

Like Leipzig, Napoli also had to deal with a domestic powerhouse; Juventus won the Serie A title in all four seasons of their trophyless run. They even came close to breaking Juve's Scudetto streak in both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. However, their cup record fell well short of Leipzig's. During this run, Napoli neither advanced beyond the quarterfinals of the Coppa Italia or the Champions League's round of 16 even once.

With Nagelsmann's departure, it would not be surprising to see Leipzig decline dramatically next season - they might even struggle to land a spot in European competition the season after. Nagelsmann is already regarded as the best coach in the Bundesliga and arguably among the top 10 in the world. If, as expected, he begins to rack up titles at Bayern, it won't be long before he will be regarded as one of the greatest coaches ever, especially if he brings another Champions League title to the Allianz Arena.

The question then becomes: what's next for Leipzig? Having already lost Timo Werner, the greatest player in the club's history, to Chelsea, Leipzig certainly find themselves in quite a bind heading into the coming off-season. Star power will be hard to come by - the city of Leipzig is not a glamorous, big-ticket destination. On top of that, Leipzig don't have any historical clout. Although they are owned by Red Bull, Leipzig's ability to spend money of players is still dwarfed by those of so many others.

The fact that centre-back Dayot Upamecano will leave for Bayern in July doesn't help matters at all. At just 22, Upamecano had perhaps the highest ceiling of all of Leipzig's young players. His departure for the club's biggest obstacle is a massive blow. A core of Angeliño, Marcel Sabitzer, Willi Orbán, Dani Olmo, and Emil Forsberg is simply not good enough to get it done.

There's no denying that for the past five years, Leipzig have clearly been punching above their weight. Unfortunately, it appears that the bubble has finally burst. After falling just short again and again, Leipzig's quest for a first piece of silverware in the club's history will likely continue for quite some time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 158: Short-Term Failure for Long-Term Success?

Although it may initially seem paradoxical, the winners of the latest iteration of the Derby d'Italia may, in the long run, wish they had lost instead.

In a chippy encounter on Serie A's penultimate matchday which saw both teams reduced to 10 men, Juventus beat newly-crowned league champions Inter Milan 3-2. Juan Cuadrado's two goals proved to be the difference between the two teams; the Colombian winger scored the Bianconeri's winning goal from the penalty spot in the 88th minute after he had been fouled by Ivan Perišić in the penalty area.

The victory kept Juve in contention for one of the four Champions League spots. It is for precisely that reason why I believe a Juve loss would have served them better over time.

If Juve leapfrog AC Milan or Napoli during the final matchday and qualify for next season's Champions League, the chances of head coach Andrea Pirlo remaining in the position next season exponentially increase. Such a scenario would be the exact opposite of what would be best for Juve due to the abject incompetence that Pirlo has shown to date.

At the end of last season, Juve fired Maurizio Sarri after a Champions League quarterfinal loss against Lyon. The selection of Pirlo as Sarri's replacement surprised many because of Pirlo's lack of coaching experience. Pirlo had been appointed as coach of Juve's reserve team just nine days prior. Results since then have confirmed the skeptics' concerns.

With Pirlo in the dugout, Juve have failed to win Serie A for the first time since the 2010-11 season. That season, Juve had a historically dismal campaign - their worst since either 1962 when they were 13th in the league but made the European Cup quarterfinals or 1957 when they only managed to finish ninth in the league. Not surprisingly, Luigi Delneri was fired as Juve head coach at the end of the season and replaced with Antonio Conte. Conte's arrival in Turin would go on to usher in the beginning of a remarkable run of nine consecutive league titles.

During this nine-year stretch featuring Conte, Massimiliano Allegri, and Sarri in the dugout, Juve not only won the league every year; they averaged a remarkable 90 points per season while doing so. They also won four Coppa Italia titles and reached the Champions League final in 2015 and 2017. This recent record has only served to highlight just how inept Pirlo has been thus far.

Pirlo has utterly failed to adapt his tactics to suit Juve's players. This can clearly be seen in their lack of invention and creativity in the final third of the pitch; a somewhat ironic fact given that as a player, Pirlo was one of the greatest playmakers of all time. Much of Juve's play in the sharp end of the field this season can be boiled down to "give Cristiano Ronaldo the ball and hope things work". As great as Ronaldo still is even at the age of 36, there's still only so much one player can do.

Pirlo has also shown that he is a coach stuck in the past; this is shown by his selection of the 4-4-2 formation. This is a formation which has seen the game pass it by; while teams of the past have seen success with it, we now know that the 4-4-2 formation is rigid, inflexible, and often not conducive to the creation of viable goalscoring opportunities. Pirlo's insistence on this formation is also further evidence of his failure to adapt to Juve's squad; players such as Adrien Rabiot and Rodrigo Bentancur should be deployed behind the opposition midfield as part of a 4-3-3 or 3-5-2 formation. This setup would not only help Juve create more chances; it would also help them gain a larger share of possession and dictate the flow of the match.

When Juve played against Napoli last month, the consensus heading into the match was that Pirlo's job was on the line. He managed to spare himself from the axe as he led Juve to a 2-1 victory over their opponents from the south. However, as may have been the case with the Inter match, it may have been better for Juve to have lost in order to trigger the firing of Pirlo.

Regardless of Juve's final league position this season or their spot or lack thereof in next season's Champions League, Pirlo has to go as soon as this season ends. It is beyond obvious that he is completely out of his depth.

The Weekly Take, Issue 157: Still Up for Grabs

The most highly-anticipated matchday of the La Liga season ended up being rather anti-climactic.

This was the matchday during which each of the four contenders would face off against a rival for the league title. Barcelona hosted Atlético Madrid while Real Madrid had a home match against Sevilla.

Barça and Atlético played first. Their match ended in a 0-0 draw, meaning that Atlético remained top of the league by two points heading into Real and Sevilla's match the next day. The result was a major missed opportunity for Barça, who had the chance to take the lead by winning.

The next day, Real took on Sevilla. Sevilla had to win to stay in contention for the title. They could not; Eden Hazard's stoppage-time equalizer ensured that it finished at 2-2. The result narrowed the league title contenders to just three after 35 of the 38 matchdays. Like Barça, Real trail Atlético by two points; however, Real are ahead of Barça due to a better head-to-head record.

As the current league leaders and with no remaining fixtures against fellow title contenders, some might assume that Atlético have the title all but sealed. However, this is far from the case. Over the past several months, Atlético's form has declined dramatically. Their once massive league lead has dwindled to just two. They were also comprehensively defeated in the Champions League's round of 16, losing 3-0 on aggregate to Chelsea.

Atlético will next have a massive encounter against Real Sociedad. This is arguably the toughest match remaining for any of the three title contenders. Win that and they'll be just about there - Atlético's last two matches will be against Osasuna and Valladolid; these matches are two likely victories.

Real's final stretch of matches is probably the most difficult among those of all three teams involved. Although they will be favoured to beat Granada, Villarreal, and Athletic Bilbao, all three are good enough to possibly cause an upset and derail Real's bid for back-to-back league titles.

In addition, the fact that Real made the deepest Champions League run among all three title hopefuls could end up working against them. Fatigue could play a role and perhaps cause them to drop much-needed points. This is especially crucial for Real, given the fact that they no longer control their own destiny.

Barça's final run-in is probably the easiest; they face Levante, Celta Vigo, and Eibar. The only slight question mark is Celta; nevertheless, it is a match which the Catalan club will be expected to win. If Atlético were to drop points, Barça would likely have a better chance than would Real to claim the league title, should one of them come from behind and do just that.

That being said, a shadow hangs over Camp Nou - one which may distract the team to such an extent that it derails their title bid. This shadow is, of course, the possible departure of Lionel Messi in the coming off-season. Almost a year ago, it seemed all but certain that Messi would leave the club at which he has become its most iconic figure and perhaps the greatest player of all time. As rumours continue to fly around, Barça will need to summon all their mental toughness to block them out and make one last push.

In any case, it is certainly refreshing to see a competitive title race in one of Europe's four major leagues. Inter Milan, Manchester City, and Bayern Munich all but clinched the Serie A, Premier League, and Bundesliga titles respectively weeks ago. What's more, the fact the La Liga title race includes three teams separated by just two points marks this season out as the most competitive since the 2013-14 season. That year, it was again the same three teams chasing the title. Atlético triumphed with 90 points; Barça and Real both finished on 87.

It may be somewhat of a cliché to say it, but it increasingly appears as though this season's La Liga champion will be "the team who wants it the most". A title race like this seldom comes around - it could very well be the intangibles that end up making the difference.

Get ready for three of the most dramatic matchdays you've ever seen.

The Weekly Take, Issue 156: 2012 All Over Again?

It has been said that history has a way of repeating itself. Incredibly, we could be witnessing this adage in action in this season's Champions League.

In the 2011-12 season, an unfancied Chelsea team which endured a difficult Premier League season and fired an underperforming head coach mid-season completed a stunning underdog Champions League run which included a spectacular semifinal upset of a Spanish powerhouse (in that season, it was Barcelona).

Nine years later, and would you look at that - Chelsea entered the season on absolutely nobody's radar to make a deep Champions League run, let alone win the whole thing. They have not been in good form in the Premier League. Frank Lampard's dismal performance as the Blues' man in the dugout saw him lose his job in favour of Thomas Tuchel. And once again, Chelsea have been overcoming tremendous odds on their tournament journey thus far and could again upset a Spanish giant - Real Madrid this time.

In the first leg of their Champions League semifinal tie, Chelsea held Real to a 1-1 draw. Although Chelsea could not leave the Alfredo Di Stéfano Stadium with the victory, Christian Pulisic scored a crucial away goal that will give the London club the upper hand heading into next week's second leg.

Somehow, some way, Chelsea are actually likely to make the Champions League final. Those of you who have been following my blog for a while will know that I have often been rather critical of Chelsea. I've typically singled out club owner Roman Abramovich for blame; however, I've also sharply criticized Chelsea players and coaches alike in some of my previous posts.

However, credit where it's due - at least in the Champions League, Chelsea have displayed impressive grit, resolve, and poise under duress. Ever since Thomas Tuchel succeeded Lampard as Chelsea's head coach, he has turned Chelsea into a team which will not fold no matter the opposition. This was clearly shown in their round of 16 tie against Atlético Madrid. Almost everyone, myself included, expected this to be a one-sided matchup. While it certainly was that, only the most fervent Chelsea stans (yes, stans. I doubt even ordinary Chelsea fans would've expected this) would've said that it would be one-sided in Chelsea's favour. Yet, that's exactly what transpired; Chelsea beat Atlético 3-0 on aggregate, sending the Madrid club out of the tournament far earlier than most had anticipated.

On paper, there appears to be no reason why Chelsea should be doing this well. While N'Golo Kanté remains probably the world's best defensive midfielder, as he has been for the last four years or so, the players around him don't seem to particularly move the needle. Timo Werner has been a shadow of the RB Leipzig centre-forward who regularly destroyed defenses in the Bundesliga and beyond. He is on his way to his lowest goal tally in a season since 2016. Other much-heralded arrivals such as Hakim Ziyech, Pulisic, and Kai Havertz have thoroughly underwhelmed at Stamford Bridge thus far.

When looking at the other key players at Chelsea, the names that most stick out are the likes of Kurt Zouma, Ben Chilwell, Jorginho, a 36-year-old Thiago Silva, and Mason Mount. Though none of them seem to be players who could form the nucleus of a Champions League-winning team, if things break their way, that could end up being what actually happens.

Perhaps one of the secrets to Chelsea's success this season has been their extremely balanced attack. The fact that their superstar is a defensive midfielder means that more players take up the goalscoring burden, giving Chelsea a more diverse attacking threat. This fact is evidenced by this statistic: with just five matchdays in the Premier League season, no Chelsea player has scored more than six league goals thus far; Werner, Tammy Abraham, Mount, and Jorginho have all managed a half-dozen apiece. Even more astonishingly, their next-highest league goalscorer is Zouma - a centre-back.

Chelsea have silenced a myriad of doubters and critics (myself included) during this remarkable Champions League run. Could they cap it off with not only a victory against Real, a title which would be remembered forever?

I never thought I would say these words, but write off this Chelsea team at your peril.

The Weekly Take, Issue 155: Collapsing at the Final Hurdles?

After a chaotic, turbulent week in the football world which ultimately saw good sense prevail with the shelving of The Super League (at least for now), normal service was resumed to some extent.

This matchday saw Wolfsburg host Borussia Dortmund in a Bundesliga match with major consequences in the chase for one of the four Champions League spots. Dortmund left Lower Saxony with all three points, winning 2-0 thanks to two goals scored by Erling Haaland. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, lost despite almost every metric indicating that this was a match which they should have won.

Dortmund played more than a third of the match with 10 men after Jude Bellingham's received a red card in the 59th minute. In addition, Die Wölfe attempted 21 shots to Dortmund's eight and had 10 corner kicks compared to just two in favour of Dortmund.

With just three matchdays remaining in this season's Bundesliga, Wolfsburg's chances of holding on to a top-four spot and a place in next season's Champions League have begun to look increasingly slim. Although they remain third in the league, Wolfsburg lead fourth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt by just one point and Dortmund by two. In addition, Wolfsburg's form has been poor, having lost three of their last four matches. Conversely, Dortmund's victory was their fourth in a row as they close in on a Champions League berth of their own.

For most of this seasons, Wolfsburg had appeared well-placed to unexpectedly clinch a top-four spot for the first time in six years. Their success had been largely due to the breakout season of Dutch striker Wout Weghorst, whose 20 league goals have made up almost 40% of all of Wolfsburg's goals in the Bundesliga. That said, this team is not just about Weghorst - players such as Ridle Baku, Xaver Schlager, Maximilian Arnold, and John Brooks have turned in impressive performances throughout this season.

It appears that Wolfsburg are beginning to suffer the same fate that has befallen so many underdog teams in such a position: the pressure of the moment seems to be getting to them. Prior to this recent slump, Wolfsburg had won nine of their previous 11 league matches, picking up 28 points along the way. Just three weeks ago, everything seemed to be going very well indeed at the Volkswagen Arena.

How quickly the tables have turned. To make matters worse, Wolfsburg's three recent losses have been against Frankfurt, league leaders Bayern Munich, and now Dortmund. This means that they have lost to two direct rivals in the race for a top-four spot as well as the champions-to-be. It doesn't get any easier for them, either; Wolfsburg next have a potentially difficult match against Union Berlin followed by one against RB Leipzig. Their struggles in the most important league matches against their immediate competition have clearly exposed their frailties; it could very well be a disappointing end to what had up to now seemed to have been such a promising season.

It's not as though Wolfsburg do not have any experience in this situation. Two seasons ago, they were also competing with four other clubs for the fourth and final Bundesliga berth in the 2019-20 Champions League. Interestingly, it was a very similar stretch that did them in; over a seven-match stretch from March 3 to April 22, 2019, Wolfsburg picked up just eight points, winning only two matches. This slump included losses to Bayern, Dortmund, and Leipzig as well as draws against Werder Bremen and Frankfurt - all clubs which would finish that season in the top eight. Wolfsburg missed a top-four spot by three points.

Although this Wolfsburg team is certainly not devoid of talent, their play in high-leverage matches over the past few seasons definitely calls their mentality into question. This is the part of the season which reveals a team's true character and puts their status as either contenders or pretenders on full display. Unfortunately for Wolfsburg, it appears that they are likely in the latter category. A lot will be decided by their match against Leipzig on May 15.

Can Wolfsburg hold their nerve and summon the mental strength to get over the line this time? It isn't out of the question, but given what they have shown recently, it does not seem all that likely.

The Weekly Take, Issue 154: This Will Change (Almost) Nothing

The recent announcement on the formation of The Super League, a proposed 12-club league to feature clubs from Italy, England, and Spain, has sent shockwaves across the world of football. Something which stands out is the response to the Super League: almost everyone appears to be vehemently against this decision.

Fans, analysts, football associations, and even politicians - all have been vociferous in condemning the 12 clubs' decision to separate themselves from what is now mainstream domestic and European football and start this new league.

Their respective responses are understandable, given everything we know thus far. There is a distinct possibility that The Super League will widen the gap between the leading clubs and the rest of the field while serving to enrich the pockets of these clubs' owners at the expense of everyone associated with other clubs. Some have even branded the move to be an anti-competitive one which undermines the current level of balance which exists in the Champions League as well as domestic leagues.

However (and I'm ready to face your pitchforks for saying this): from my perspective, I believe that the establishment of The Super League will change very little from both the structural and competitive perspectives.

Perhaps the main reason why I believe the reaction to The Super League is overblown is this: the Champions League as it is now is effectively a "super league" of sorts.

Think about it for a moment. Since 1998, if Bayern Munich are excluded (they are excluded because though they wouldn't be part of The Super League, they are clearly on that level), only once has a non-Super League club won the Champions League: Porto in 2004. What's more, almost every team since then which has made at least the semifinals in each season has either been Bayern, the cash-rich Paris Saint-Germain, or one of the Super League clubs.

Those who say that "it shows that money is ruining the game" have clearly not been paying attention to football over the last 20 years. That ship has long sailed. The era of the transfer arms race began a very long time ago and shows no signs of abating. Even the installation of the so-called "Financial Fair Play" regulations did absolutely nothing to curb it. Nothing will change even if The Super League does not come into being.

Some even claim that the creation of The Super League will "dilute history". This is an exceedingly ridiculous point which can easily be debunked. When the World Cup changed its competition format in 1982 and again in 1998, did previous World Cup titles suddenly stop being less prestigious? When the Champions League went through not one, not two, but three format changes in the 1990s, did anyone say anything about the dilution of football history back then?

The detractors do have one valid point: it will weaken the general standard of domestic league and cup play. But let's be real: at this level, every club wants a Champions League (and subsequently a Super League) title more than anything else. Domestic leagues and especially domestic cups already take a backseat to the Champions League as things are now.

If anything, my biggest concern over The Super League is, ironically enough, the selection of the clubs which would be participating in it. Among the 12 clubs, probably the leading title contenders would be Manchester City and Inter Milan, with a group of seven other clubs potentially having a puncher's chance themselves.

Then, we come to the three London clubs: Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham. These three are so far behind the other nine clubs that in my estimation, the inclusion of these clubs in The Super League would actually damage the overall product. Though the league is obviously intended to be a money-making venture, the sight of Arsenal or Tottenham getting destroyed by City or Barcelona or Inter every week would not be a good look at all.

Assuming that The Super League goes ahead, I'd say that there are certainly some rough edges to be worked on and several serious issues to consider. However, if all goes according to these clubs' plans, the only major change I see happening is the Super League's supplanting of the Champions League as Europe's preeminent club football competition.