The Weekly Take, Issue 150: Peaking at the Right Time?

In a match which will have major implications on the race for a top-four spot in Serie A and the Champions League berth that goes with it, Napoli beat Roma 2-0. Dries Mertens scored both goals within a seven-minute span in the first half. The victory saw Napoli close to within two points of Juventus and Atalanta who are third and fourth in the league respectively. Crucially, Napoli have a match in hand against Juve; victory in that would now see Gli Azzurri leapfrog Juve and move into third.

Napoli experienced mixed fortunes last season. Despite winning the Coppa Italia by beating Juve on penalties in the final, Napoli only managed to finish seventh in Serie A. This represented their worst league finish since 2009. The club's campaign was marked by instability throughout - a fact made clear with the December 2019 firing of legendary coach Carlo Ancelotti. Ancelotti was replaced by Gennaro Gattuso, whose results at the helm to date have been somewhat inconsistent.

That said, things are starting to look brighter at the Stadio San Paolo now. They have emerged from a slump during which they lost six out of 12 league matches, winning four of their last five. Much to their good fortune, Napoli's resurgence has coincided with inconsistent play from their direct competitors for a top-four spot, keeping them firmly in the frame for Champions League play next season.

Unlike Juve, Atalanta, Roma, or AC Milan, Napoli appear to be peaking just as the season enters its final stretch. Their massive outlay on player transfers last season is also beginning to pay off. The likes of Hirving Lozano, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Diego Demme, and Matteo Di Politano were not quite able to fully gel with the team in 2019-20, in part due to the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, now that they have spent more time at the club, they have all improved tremendously from last season and have made crucial contributions to Napoli's success thus far.

One key to Napoli's improvement this season has been their attack. Last season, Napoli only scored 61 league goals. This was their lowest tally since 2011; their goal difference was also its worst since 2010. Arkadiusz Milik was Napoli's only player to reach double figures in Serie A. This season, though, Napoli have turned it around up front. With 11 matches remaining, they have already scored 58 goals in the league. Long-serving striker Lorenzo Insigne leads the club with 13; he could potentially match his career-best 18 which he netted in the 2016-17 season.

After a turbulent half-season in charge, Gattuso has also seemed to become much more familiar with his personnel and been able to adjust his tactics accordingly. Last season, he tended to favour a 4-3-3 formation which featured Milik at centre-forward and Piotr Zieliński in central midfield. On the wing, José Callejón was usually preferred over Lozano.

However, it has all changed this season. Gattuso now primarily opts for a 4-2-3-1 set up. Zieliński now occupies the number 10 role while Callejón and Milik's off-season departures have allowed Lozano and Mertens to become regular starters. With this new setup, Napoli's attacking threat down the wings has greatly improved from that of last season. It has also made them much more proficient at creating long-range shot opportunities.

In any case, Napoli must not get ahead of themselves. As I mentioned, there's still that upcoming clash against Juve on April 7; it will go a long way towards answering the question of whether there will be Champions League football in Naples next season. Roma and Lazio are also nipping at Napoli's heels; a late slump on Napoli's part coupled with a surge by either of both of the Rome-based clubs could see Napoli once again fail to qualify for next season's Champions League.

Nevertheless, it could very well be that Napoli are peaking at exactly the right time. A first league title since 1990 is out of the question; Inter Milan are champions-to-be with a massive lead and a match in hand. Despite this, the way Napoli have been playing over the past few weeks, they have every chance to make the top four. Of course, doing so by beating bitter rivals Juve and potentially knocking the Turin club out of the top four in the process would be especially sweet.

The Weekly Take, Issue 149: End of an Era?

Cast your mind back to the past off-season, when it looked almost certain that Lionel Messi would depart Barcelona after 16 incredible years at Camp Nou. In the end, no transfer ended up being made, and the Argentinean legend remained at the club where he has spent his entire career to date.

I have brought this up because it is entirely possible that we may just have seen Messi play his very last Champions League match for the Blaugrana. In the second leg of Barça's Champions League round of 16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain, the Catalan club held PSG to a 1-1 draw. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring for PSG from the penalty spot before Messi equalized seven minutes later. However, given the fact that Barça had to overcome a three-goal deficit, the final result was always inevitable from the beginning of the match.

The result meant that Barça were eliminated from the tournament, losing 5-2 on aggregate. It was the first time since 2007 that Barça failed to qualify for the quarterfinals of the Champions League. More importantly, though, it could very well prove to be the straw that breaks the camel's back for Messi.

To say that Barça's most recent off-season was a tumultuous one would be a severe understatement. It began with the expected firing of head coach Quique Setién; Ronald Koeman took over as his replacement. A mass exodus of key players soon followed. The most notable of these was the departure of Luis Suárez to Atlético Madrid on a free transfer. These departures were closely linked to the turmoil in Barça's front office which culminated in the resignation of club president Josep Bartomeu in October 2020. It was this same series of events which almost drove Messi out of Barça.

With Barça's exit from the Champions League, Messi's place at the club next season will surely be under even more scrutiny. While the writing is not quite on the wall yet, it soon will be if things remain as they are. Out of the Champions League and unlikely to win La Liga, Barça's only realistic hope for silverware this season is the Copa del Rey.

It has to be kept in mind that Messi is now 33; he does not have all that many years as an elite player remaining. Though he is still performing at a very high level, he has already shown clear signs of decline for the past one to two years. He knows he has to do whatever it takes to maximize his chances of landing a fifth Champions League title. More than ever before, it appears that his best chance to do so lies away from Catalonia.

Messi has been linked with Manchester City, PSG, and Inter Milan. All three options present their own advantages. At City, he would reunite with head coach Pep Guardiola, under whom he won two Champions League titles in 2009 and 2011 as part of arguably the greatest club team of all time. City have a wretched Champions League record; only once have they ever advanced to the tournament's semifinals. Messi's arrival would likely change that.

PSG is another interesting option because they have more financial might than any other club on the planet. Apart from being the most financially lucrative option, PSG would also provide the chance for Messi to make history. Like City, PSG have never won the Champions League. They reached the final for the first time last season, only to lose to Bayern Munich. At PSG, Messi would rejoin former Barça teammate Neymar as well as three teammates from his national team.

Inter are seen as the least likely option; however, it would make a lot of sense. This is a team which has a solid supporting cast as well as an excellent head coach in Antonio Conte. Just about the only thing Inter need to become a genuine Champions League contender is a legitimate superstar. Messi would be exactly that.

Lionel Messi's 17-year stint at Barcelona is unquestionably the greatest one-club run in the history of football. Never again will many of his achievements there be replicated by any other player at any other club. However, it looks as though these glorious years are drawing to a close. Where will his next stop be? Only time will tell.

The Weekly Take, Issue 148: Still Missing That X-Factor

The recent Manchester derby did not end the way many had expected. Premier League champions-to-be Manchester City lost 2-0 to Manchester United. Bruno Fernandes opened the scoring for United with (as is almost expected at this point) a penalty kick before Luke Shaw sealed the three points for the Red Devils with a second-half goal.

Now, it is true that this result will almost certainly have no bearing on the league title race. Even with the loss, City are still leading the league by 11 points over United with just 10 matches remaining. That being said, the fact that City were nowhere near their best in a match in which they had been expected to make a clear statement to not only the rest of England, but Europe as well, points to a larger problem. This problem is one which has been evident at City for years - it was there long before Pep Guardiola took over as head coach and has persisted to this day.

It cannot be doubted that the Citizens have been extremely consistent over the past decade. Four Premier League titles, two FA Cups, 10 consecutive top-four league finishes, and an average of 82 league points per season - results of which any club would be envious. However, when we take a closer look, some worrying trends become apparent.

During this same period, only once have City advanced beyond the quarterfinals of the Champions League. In addition, City's lowest moments have been particularly disappointing for a club of their stature, especially when considering how they came about. Lowlights include a group-stage Champions League exit in the 2011-12 season, a loss to Wigan Athletic in the 2013 FA Cup final, a dismal 2015-16 Premier League campaign in which they only garnered 66 points and barely made the top four, and a 2017 Champions League round of 16 elimination against Monaco.

The main point is this: there have been times during which City have looked like a well-oiled machine primed to dominate world football. However, when considering all the money invested by owner Sheikh Mansour, it must be concluded that this club has again and again proven to be a paper tiger when the stakes have been at their highest.

On paper, City have all the elements needed to take their place as a team which should be making deep Champions League runs every year while also easily finishing first or second in the league. However, the fact of the matter is that against the very best teams, City just don't have that "something extra" - that additional gear that sees them go from being merely an excellent team to one which plays in a completely different stratosphere.

That's not necessarily that big of a knock on City; I'd say that today, there are only four other teams capable of achieving such a level. These are Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Atlético Madrid, and (in spite of their struggles this season) Liverpool. However, if City are to win the Champions League for the first time in the club's history, they need to find a way to reach that level - if they can't do so, claiming the biggest prize in European club football will be almost impossible.

City have also begun to turn, if they haven't already, into a team which only performs as frontrunners. For all of Guardiola's brilliance as a coach, he has not been able to instill a mindset of resilience and grit within City's players. A prime example of this could be seen in their Champions League quarterfinal against Lyon last season. With the score at 1-1 and just 15 minutes remaining, City had to dig deep and tap into their unquestionable quality to finish off a Lyon side which had proven to be surprisingly difficult to put away. Instead, City capitulated, conceding two goals in an eight-minute span and thus crashing out of the tournament.

It isn't impossible to acquire this trait; after years of underachieving and choking, PSG, for example, seem to have begun to do so. However, the key difference between City and PSG is that in City's case, it appears to be systemic. PSG seem to have become a whole new team since giving the "keys" to Kylian Mbappé. City, on the other hand, have spent much of the last decade that the matches have to be played; they are neither won on paper nor with money.

The Weekly Take, Issue 147: The Turnaround Continues

The most notable fixture of this past Serie A matchday was unquestionably the match between AS Roma and AC Milan. Milan came out on top, beating the Giallorossi 2-1. Franck Kessié opened the scoring for Milan from the penalty spot just before halftime. After the break, Jordan Veretout equalized for Roma, but Ante Rebić's winning goal would ensure that the Rossoneri would leave Rome with all three points.

This was an extremely important victory for Milan. A loss would have seen them fall seven points behind crosstown rivals and league leaders Inter Milan and left them with only a very slight chance of claiming their first Scudetto since 2011. However, as it turned out, Stefano Pioli's team registered a victory which helped them keep pace with the league leaders in what has been their best season since the 2011-12 campaign.

Of course, the question has to be asked: after so many years of mediocrity, how have Milan turned it around this season?

One major key to their improvement in 2020-21 has been their attack. Over the preceding eight seasons, Milan had averaged just 1.51 goals per league match. In addition, only once during this span did a Milan player exceed 20 goals in all competitions in a season: Carlos Bacca in 2015-16. The club's nadir up front came in the 2018-19 season, when Krzysztof Piątek was Milan's leading goalscorer - with just nine league goals to his name. This hasn't been the case at all this season, though. Milan are averaging almost two goals per league match with legendary striker Zlatan Ibrahimović on pace to score 22 in Serie A. That would be the largest haul by any Milan player since Ibrahimović himself had 28 in the 2011-12 season.

In the dugout, Pioli has begun to establish himself as a solid coach. After many underwhelming stints in charge of several different Italian clubs including Lazio and Inter, many Milan fans were apprehensive when the Parma-born coach replaced Marco Giampaolo in October 2019. Defying the critics, Pioli has shown impressive tactical flexibility and versatility at the helm of the red half of Milan. Unlike Giampaolo, Pioli clearly understands how to maximize the respective strengths of each key Milan player. Hakan Çalhanoğlu appears to be a player reborn ever since Pioli restored him to his preferred number 10 position. Kessié has thrived ever since dropping farther back in midfield, while Rebić, in spite of his decline in goals scored this season, has been playing far better than he had been under Giampaolo. Though Pioli might not be on the level of the likes of Gian Piero Gasperini or Antonio Conte, he has at last proven that he belongs in a Serie A dugout.

Milan can also be very pleased with the continued development of several of their younger players including Kessié, Davide Calabria, and Rafael Leão. As great as Ibrahimović has been since his return to the San Siro last year, the fact is that the Swede is 39. The "cliff" will come for him any day now; it's also possible that "Ibra" might retire at the end of this season. It's thus crucial that they maintain the progress they have shown to date, especially Leão who, as a striker, is likely to take over from Ibrahimović at some point. Though he might not be a pure centre-forward, he has nevertheless shown the ability to play the position at a reasonably high level.

That being said, if Milan come up short in their bid to win the Serie A title, there is one important point that should not be ignored: their lack of activity in both transfer windows. Their most expensive signing this season was midfielder Sandro Tonali, who was signed on loan from Brescia in September. Milan paid €10 million to sign the 20-year-old. To his credit, Tonali has not looked out of place in the starting line-up. However, most of the club's other signings of note were merely to turn loan deals into permanent ones. In contrast, Inter added the likes of Nicolò Barella, Arturo Vidal, and Achraf Hakimi to their roster; all three have made major impacts as Inter have claimed the driver's seat in their own bid to end a decade-long league title drought.

Nevertheless, even if Milan finish the season empty-handed, they can still look back on this season with pride - this season and last have been like night and day for them.

The Weekly Take, Issue 146: Living Up to the Hype

Almost three years ago, a 19-year-old striker by the name of Kylian Mbappé announced himself as a superstar in the making with a stunning individual display in the 2018 World Cup's round of 16, leading France to a 4-3 victory over Argentina. Since then, however, he has not had a similar signature performance for PSG, largely due to the presence of other elite players such as Neymar and Edinson Cavani.

With Neymar once again ruled out due to a left adductor injury and Cavani having left PSG for Manchester United during the past off-season, the door was open for Mbappé to deliver a signature individual performance for his club. In the first leg of PSG's Champions League round of 16 tie against Barcelona, he did exactly that. Mbappé showcased just why many expect him to become a future Ballon d'Or winner by torching Lionel Messi and company with an electrifying hattrick, leading PSG to a 4-1 victory. PSG's lop-sided victory almost certainly guaranteed them a place in the quarterfinals.

Although this has not been an easy season for PSG by any means, Mbappé has clearly been their standout player. He is on track to become Ligue 1's leading goalscorer for the third consecutive season. Mbappé's contributions to his hometown club's success have been especially important this season because there is a genuine chance that they might lose the league title for the first time since 2017.

Mbappé's talent has never been in doubt. This season, though, he has taken his game to a new level. Despite being the third-youngest player currently at PSG, he has shown maturity and poise rarely seen in a player aged just 22. He is now not only a player capable of making incredible plays at any given moment; his understanding of the game has increased to a point at which he almost always makes the right decision. This is a trait of which not many players can boast; that said, it's one which Mbappé clearly has now.

Mbappé's interplay with Moise Kean has exceeded the expectations of many. PSG acquired Kean during the off-season on loan from Everton. After a difficult first season at Goodison Park, not many expected Kean to play as well as he is right now. However, Mbappé has been able to fine-tune his playstyle this season to blend well with that of his Italian strike partner, and this has allowed Kean to have a breakout season of his own.

This, of course, leads to the question: can Kylian Mbappé lead PSG to its first Champions League title? After all, many of the problems which plague this club are mental above all else. Over the past few seasons, PSG have invariably faltered on Europe's biggest stage when the lights have been brightest and the pressure at its most intense. Although Qatar Sports Investments has spent a colossal amount of money ever since acquiring the club in 2012, they have only once advanced past the Champions League quarterfinals since then. Almost as if to emphasize this point, PSG's most iconic Champions League moment over the past decade was a 6-1 round of 16 capitulation against Barça. This loss caused them to surrender a seemingly unassailable first-leg lead and exit the competition in humiliating fashion.

That being said, there seems to be such a difference between the current PSG led by Mbappé when compared to the club's previous iterations spearheaded by Neymar or Zlatan Ibrahimović. As great a player as Neymar was and is, you just never got the sense that he was the one who would lead PSG to the title they most desired. The same was true of the PSG teams built around Ibrahimović. However, especially after PSG's breakthrough Champions League campaign last season in which they reached the final for the first time, the current squad just seems to have something different which its predecessors never had.

PSG's road to a historic Champions League title will not be an easy one. Reigning champions Bayern Munich remain the overwhelming favourites to defend their title, while Atlético Madrid, Real Madrid, Manchester City, and RB Leipzig will be no pushovers themselves. That being said, should Mbappé continue to hit the heights which many expect him to, PSG might have the best chance they've ever had to land European football's greatest prize.

The Weekly Take, Issue 145: The Historic Season Nobody Is Talking About

This season, one team has thus far put together one of the all-time great league campaigns and in the process emerged as among the favourites to claim a first Champions League title in the club's history.

Yet, in spite of all of this, not many have paid much heed to this club's remarkable feats thus far. As has so often been the case with this club, their achievements this season have once again undeservedly ended up going under almost everyone's radar.

This club is Atlético Madrid; their remarkable La Liga campaign saw yet another victory this past matchday. Atlético registered a 2-1 victory over Granada, with Marcos Llorente and Ángel Correa scoring the two goals that extended Atlético's lead at the top of the league to eight points despite having played one match less.

To put into perspective just how dominant Atlético have been domestically, they are currently on pace for 98 points in the league. This total would be the fourth-highest of all time and the most since Barcelona had 100 in the 2012-13 season. In comparison, Premier League and Serie A leaders Manchester City and AC Milan are on pace for 88 and 85 respectively, while Bundesliga leaders would be on track to hit 91 points if the Bundesliga were played over 38 matches instead of 34.

In the Champions League, Atlético should face little to no difficulty in disposing of Chelsea in the round of 16. From that point forth, no team will want to face the club enjoying what might turn out to be the finest season they have ever had.

Looking at this current Atlético team, one name stands out. The primary reason for their success, the foundation on which this team is built, and the absolute force of nature who had made the Atlético goal an almost-impenetrable fortress is Jan Oblak. The Slovenian is far and away the best goalkeeper in the world and has been so for the majority of the past four years. Ever since Oblak became the club's starting goalkeeper at the beginning of the 2015-16 season, Atlético have averaged 0.65 goals conceded per match - an absolutely remarkable figure in the most attacker-friendly of Europe's four major football leagues. Atlético and Oblak have continued this goalkeeping excellence this season with 13 conceded in their 21 league matches to date. Oblak's mere presence between the posts gives Atlético such a boost that it's almost as though they start every match a goal ahead.

Up front, the 34-year-old Luis Suárez has kept Father Time at bay. The Uruguayan leads the league in goals scored with 16. His acquisition from Barça during the off-season has arguably been the factor most directly linked to Atlético's ascension this season. His arrival at the Wanda Metropolitano not only filled a void vacated by the departure of Antoine Griezmann over a year before; it also dealt a severe blow to the Catalan club's chances to win any silverware this season. Barcelona replaced Suárez by signing Francisco Trincão from Braga. Up to this point, the Portuguese striker has not lived up to his price tag of €31 million. Just to rub it in for Barça, Suárez left on a free transfer.

Perhaps at season's end, this will be the season in which Atlético head coach Diego Simeone finally gets the credit he so richly deserves. Since taking over at Atlético in 2011, Simeone has again and again taken the club to overachievement. However, his relative lack of titles belies his actual coaching skill; despite having just two major titles to his name during this time, the Argentinean is arguably the best coach on the planet today; the only coaches on his level are Jürgen Klopp, Pep Guardiola, and Zinedine Zidane. A Champions League title would make Simeone unquestionably the best coach in the world.

You can't say that many clubs deserve a season like this more than Atlético. This is a club which is superbly run from top to bottom and one in which everyone has truly bought into the system. Despite their relative lack of financial might in comparison to many of their direct rivals, Atlético have once again shown that it can still be done "the right way".

Quietly impressive though they may have been, their success speaks louder than any media attention ever could.

The Weekly Take, Issue 144: Everything that Could Have Gone Wrong Did

In a match with major implications on this season's Serie A title race, Juventus eased to a 2-0 victory over AS Roma. Cristiano Ronaldo opened the scoring for Juve in the 13th minute before a second-half Ibañez own goal sealed the Giallorossi's loss. Roma's loss not only left them nine points behind league leaders AC Milan; they also fell to fifth in the league and thus in position to miss out on Champions League qualification for the third season in a row.

Over the past few seasons, Roma's greatest moment was undoubtedly their iconic 2018 Champions League quarterfinal comeback to beat Barcelona. However, since then, not a lot has gone right for them. Their subsequent Serie A campaign saw them finish the season in sixth place, their worst league finish in six years. The mid-season firing of head coach Eusebio Di Francesco did not do much to improve the club's performance; his replacement Claudio Ranieri, in his second stint coaching Roma, could not lead them to a top-four spot and a Champions League berth.

The moment that signalled the closing of Roma's window as a genuine Serie A contender didn't directly involve them. In the 2018 Champions League final, Real Madrid beat Liverpool 3-1 with the assistance of an absolutely dismal performance by Liverpool goalkeeper Loris Karius. This absolute disaster of a performance prompted the Reds to search for a goalkeeper during that offseason; they finally settled on Roma's Alisson. Since then, the Brazilian has established himself as clearly the second-best goalkeeper in the world, only behind Atlético Madrid superstar Jan Oblak. Despite the high transfer fee he commanded, Roma have not even been close to compensating for Alisson's departure at all.

Alisson has not been the only key player to leave the Stadio Olimpico since 2018. During this period, Radja Nainggolan, Kevin Strootman, Kostas Manolas, and Aleksandar Kolarov all left the club. Of course, player departures from Roma cannot be fully covered without mentioning club legend Daniele De Rossi. After 18 years with his hometown club, De Rossi left for Boca Juniors on a free transfer in July 2019. Though already 35 years old and clearly on the decline by then, De Rossi's departure would surely have had a profound psychological impact on the team. The Roma captain provided leadership and stability which no one else at the club could possibly have.

To make matters worse, the career of a possible star in the making might very well have been derailed before the player had his chance to truly blossom. Since January 2020, Nicolò Zaniolo has suffered not one, but two ACL tears. The Tuscany-born attacking midfielder was named Serie A's best young player of the 2018-19 season after a breakout debut league season which saw him establish himself as a player who might someday emerge as Roma's heir to the great Francesco Totti. However, his progression came to a shuddering halt when he tore his right ACL in a league match against Juve. Astonishingly, not long after he return from the devastating injury, he would tear his left ACL in a Nations League match for Italy against the Netherlands. Even at just 21, it is almost certain that due to these injuries, he will never even approach his once-lofty ceiling.

On a related note, Roma's failure to invest in young talent might soon come back to bite them. At the moment, their two best players are 32-year-old Henrikh Mkhitaryan and 34-year-old Edin Džeko. Though Roma will bank on the continued improvement of Cengiz Ünder and Justin Kluivert when they return from their loan spells, it does not seem likely that either will reach the heights needed to lead Roma to a league title or another deep run in the Champions League (of course, they'd first have to make it back into the top four).

Roma's path back to becoming a genuine force in Italy has been made even more difficult not only by Juve's continued domestic excellence, but also by the recent resurgence of both Inter and AC Milan as well as the improvement of city rivals Lazio. A first league title since 2001 seems further away than ever before. Unfortunately, Roma fans could be in for a difficult next few years.