The Weekly Take, Issue 57: Living Rent-Free in Their Heads

As I write this post, I as a Borussia Dortmund fan have a sense of déjà vu in the worst way possible.

In one of last season’s matchups between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, Bayern took Dortmund apart, winning a dominant 6-0 victory in Der Klassiker.

Around a year later, the two rivals met again, but this time the stakes were even higher. Dortmund and Bayern were ranked first and second in the Bundesliga heading into the match. The winner would be likely to claim this season’s league title.

What was expected to have been one of the most pulsating, hotly-contested matches of the season, however, ended up becoming an extremely one-sided affair - once again in Bayern’s favour. The Bavarians destroyed the Ruhr team, winning 5-0.

It was never even close. Bayern were in full control right from the opening whistle, and the scoreline could easily have been even more one-sided than it was. What made it even worse for Die Schwarzgelben was the fact that former Dortmund star Robert Lewandowski scored two of Bayern’s five goals. Lewandowski’s first goal was also the 200th Bundesliga goal of his legendary career.

This match also made one thing extremely clear: Dortmund have a tremendous mental block when playing against Bayern. Since the beginning of the 2013-14 season, Bayern and Dortmund have played against each other 20 times. Over these 20 clashes, Bayern have won 12 and scored 42 goals; Dortmund, just five with 20 goals scored.

Dortmund have developed a reputation for being mentally weak, especially following the departure of former head coach Jürgen Klopp. They have lost three DFB-Pokal finals, are on pace to have their sixth top-four league finish in seven years during which they have not won the title, and have been knocked out of the Champions League by teams which they should have beaten, such as Monaco and Tottenham. They even lost a Europa League tie against Red Bull Salzburg in 2018.

This team is nowhere near the level of the Klopp-coached team that took European football by storm in the early 2010s.

In 2011, Dortmund won the Bundesliga title for the first time in nine years. The next year, Dortmund won a league and cup Double. That team contained players such as Lewandowski, team captain Sebastian Kehl, Neven Subotić, Shinji Kagawa, Kuba Błaszczykowski, Mats Hummels, and İlkay Gündoğan. This was a team loaded with talent, cohesion, fearlessness, leadership, and mental toughness. Supplemented by Klopp’s outstanding coaching and tactical genius, Dortmund went on a tear, winning game after game in unconventional yet effective ways and putting the world of football on notice. They not only won two Bundesliga titles and a DFB-Pokal, but also many new fans (myself included) in the process.

Fast-forward to the present and one will see that Dortmund’s best players include Axel Witsel, Jadon Sancho, Paco Alcácer, Achraf Hakimi, and the departing Christian Pulisic. Apart from the fact that their general skill level is lower than that of the 2010-12 team, the current team also seems to play with a level of fear and inhibition that the team from back then never did. This is especially true when they play against Bayern.

This team completely lacks a winning mentality against Bayern. In this week’s match, Dortmund were clearly ill-suited for the occasion. Even their best players played well below their usual standards. It makes one wonder if they actually believe they can win the league title.

Last week, I wrote about Tottenham’s mental fragility. Much of what I said about Spurs also applies to Dortmund. However, unlike Tottenham, Dortmund do have a history of success, making their recent inability to close the deal all the more galling.

This team needs two things. One is a clear team identity. Although Dortmund have some excellent players on the team, their lack of an overarching identity hinders their level of play. The second is better coaching. Although Lucien Favre is certainly a good coach, I don’t believe he is one who can restore Dortmund to its former glory.

However, until both of these are fulfilled, Borussia Dortmund are likely to experience even more near-misses, especially against the team who have tormented them for most of the last half-decade.

The Weekly Take, Issue 56: Will This Team’s Culture Ever Change?

Those of you who read my posts regularly may remember that I recently wrote a post about Bayern Munich. In it, I lauded Bayern for instilling a culture and mentality of success and victory throughout the team.

However, this time I’m going to take the opposite approach. I am about to discuss a team that perpetually comes up short in the big moments. A team that somehow always manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A team that has more than deserved its reputation for choking and being mentally weak.

This team is Tottenham Hotspur.

During the previous Premier League matchday, Tottenham crashed to a 2-1 loss to league leaders Liverpool. In typical Spurs fashion, the goal that sealed their fate was an own goal scored by Toby Alderweireld.

Tottenham have always been known as a team which has never quite been capable of taking that final step. Since 1984, Tottenham have only won the following titles: the 1991 FA Cup, the 1999 League Cup, and the 2008 League Cup. They have not even won the Premier League once and have not even come close to any success in the Europa League, let alone the Champions League. This is an extremely poor return for a club of Tottenham’s stature.

There are several factors that have caused this general lack of success, but there is one which stands out above all others: as a club, Tottenham seem to expect failure more than they do success. This sense of pessimism that permeates the club clearly affects the players year after year.

The chief example of this is Tottenham’s 2015-16 Premier League campaign.

With the usual powerhouses such as Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, and Liverpool all mired in slumps or undergoing transitional periods, Tottenham were well-placed to possibly win their first league title in 54 years. For much of the season, they were neck-and-neck with Leicester City, who were themselves targeting a first-ever league title.

Tottenham not only lost the title race, but also slumped so badly during the closing stretch of the season that their North London rivals Arsenal came from behind, overtook them, and finished second behind Leicester.

It is also worth noting that every time a star player leaves Tottenham, the player seems to be free of the mental shackles at the club and takes his game to the next level.

Players such as Dimitar Berbatov, Gareth Bale, and Luka Modrić did just that, with Modrić eventually turning into one of the greatest attacking midfielders of all time. It is unlikely that he would have done so if he had remained at White Hart Lane.

If Harry Kane were to follow such a path and leave Tottenham, no one associated with the club should have any complaints. It is a distinct possibility that the centre-forward’s career progression is being stunted at Spurs.

This culture of failure comes from the top down – the club’s owner and administrative members are guilty as well.

This season, Tottenham have not signed even one player. This clearly shows that those in charge do not expect success any time soon; hence, there is no reason to add to the squad.

As much as he has been lauded by the media, head coach Mauricio Pochettino must also shoulder some of the blame.

The Argentine, while in my opinion is slightly overrated as a coach, has nevertheless shown the ability to make an average team good. However, he clearly lacks the ability to make a good team great. This team has obviously plateaued under Pochettino – over the last four years, the team as a whole has made virtually no progress. If this trend continues, do not be surprised to see Pochettino out of Tottenham before too long.

Tottenham are now in a four-way battle with Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea for the last two Champions League spots for next season. If this season and Tottenham’s history are anything to go by, they might very well miss out on the Champions League for the first time in four years.

This is a team clearly burdened by the failures of the past. Until the general team culture at Tottenham is overhauled, it is likely to remain this way for years to come.

The Weekly Take, Issue 55: Die Mannschaft’s New Generation Arrives

It has been a tough year for Germany’s national football team.

Knocked out in the first round of the World Cup. Relegated from the top tier of the Nations League. Embroiled in a racism controversy that triggered the international football retirement of Mesut Özil. Even the position of head coach Joachim Löw, once thought unassailable, has been at risk.

However, there may yet be light at the end of the tunnel for Die Mannschaft.

In a qualifying match for Euro 2020 against bitter rivals the Netherlands, Germany managed to gut out a 3-2 victory. Hoffenheim midfielder Nico Schulz scored the winning goal in the last minute of regulation time.

This was an important victory for Germany. Not only did they beat their arch-nemeses, but they did so as the underdogs. This Netherlands team has been resurgent ever since missing out on a spot at the 2018 World Cup and, led by players such as Memphis Depay, Frenkie de Jong, Matthijs de Ligt, and of course, superstar defender and team captain Virgil van Dijk, have re-established themselves as a genuine force in international football.

Another point of note about Germany’s win is the fact that none of their three goalscorers were part of the team that suffered an early World Cup exit last year. Besides Schulz, Leroy Sané and Serge Gnabry found the back of the net for Germany.

Löw’s decision to bring a premature end to the international careers of veterans Thomas Müller, Jérôme Boateng, and Mats Hummels signalled the beginning of a new era for Germany. Though the decision to permanently drop the Bayern Munich trio was initially viewed with skepticism by many, the move appears to have paid off.

This phasing out of the old guard has paved the way for these young rising stars to emerge as the backbone of what looks like a promising, up-and-coming German team.

Leroy Sané is beginning to emerge as a superstar before our very eyes. He has begun to prove that he may very well be the player around whom Germany should build their team of the future. The standout performer in Germany’s victory over the Oranje, Sané has been in the midst of a breakout season. His performances have made major contributions to Manchester City’s Premier League and Champions League title bids.

However, this team is not just about Sané. The likes of Thilo Kehrer, Gnabry, Niklas Süle, Antonio Rüdiger, and others will form a solid supporting cast, both for the present and in the years to come.

The success of Germany’s under-21 team also bodes well for the senior team’s future.

The under-21 team have not lost a match for almost one and a half years. The reigning European junior champions have a plethora of young talent at their disposal, many of whom will surely be called up to the senior team before too long. This is a team containing players such as Mahmoud Dahoud, Luca Waldschmidt, Levin Öztunalı, and Pascal Stenzel. All of these players have already begun making names for themselves at their respective clubs and eventually be part of a team that makes deep European Championship and World Cup runs.

This may initially sound like a strange thing to say, but the fact that these players have either never played in a World Cup or only made minor appearances in it could end up working in Germany’s favour.

This is because they did not have to bear the brunt of Germany’s failure in Russia last year. Such an occurrence would have been likely to leave a psychological mark on the players involved. This may have been one of the primary reasons behind Germany’s dismal Nations League campaign. Now that many of their main players are not burdened by the legacy of their doomed World Cup campaign, they should be able to play with a level of mental freedom which the players who played heavy minutes during the World Cup would not have.

After enduring a slump of more than a year, it looks as though Germany are ready to write the next chapter of their storied football history. While it’s too early to say that they will clinch their fifth World Cup title in 2022, such a scenario is definitely possible.

The Weekly Take, Issue 54: No Icardi, No Problem

The Derby della Madonnina is one of the most iconic matches in world football.

Inter Milan and AC Milan are two of the most storied clubs in the world. The two Milan clubs have combined for 36 Serie A titles, 12 Coppa Italia titles, and 10 Champions Leagues. Adding extra intrigue to their intense rivalry is the fact that they even play in the same stadium.

The latest match between the two, which took place this past matchday, ended in a 3-2 victory in favour of Inter. The win helped the Nerazzurri overtake their city rivals in the Serie A standings, moving into third.

Notably for Inter, the match was the team’s first high-profile one since a controversy involving Argentine centre-forward Mauro Icardi.

Icardi had been embroiled in a dispute over a possible contractual extension with Inter. This dispute boiled over around a month ago when Wanda Nara, Icardi’s wife and agent, launched a scathing critique against her husband’s teammates by claiming that they were not setting him up for success. Inter responded by stripping Icardi of the club captaincy, a position he had held since 2015. He has since been frozen out of the team and is now likely to be transferred in the coming offseason.

As Icardi was, and still is, the club’s leading goalscorer this season, it would not have come as a surprise if Inter had struggled in his absence. However, in spite of some initial struggles, the team has appeared to begin to gel.

Players such as Stefan de Vrij, Matías Vecino, Marcelo Brozović, and most notably of all, Lautaro Martínez, have all raised their level of play in recent weeks.

This was clearly evidenced in Inter’s derby victory over the Rossoneri. No single player necessarily stood out – it was clearly a team effort. Inter received important contributions from most of their key players. What is interesting, however, is the fact that such a performance might not have been produced had Icardi still been playing.

This team had been becoming over-reliant on the controversial Argentine before the incident regarding his contract blew up.

Prior to the dispute, Icardi had been Inter’s only player to have scored more than four league goals this season, with nine. On the offensive front, everything about Inter started and ended with Icardi. However, Icardi’s absence from the lineup had the effect of forcing Inter to play in a more team-oriented manner. This change has galvanized the team and really brought the superstar potential of Martínez to the forefront.

When he signed for Inter from Racing Club, Martínez was hyped as one who would become yet another elite striker to come out of Argentina. Despite this, he had mostly been limited to substitute appearances as Icardi led the frontline in the starting 11. That changed after Icardi was dropped. Since then, Martínez has begun to live up to the buzz around him with several very impressive performances and even scored one of Inter’s goals in the derby. At this point, even if Icardi were to make his way back into the good graces of the club, it is not a given that he would not be deemed expendable. Not only is Martínez arguably equally as good a player as Icardi, he also happens to be four years younger and clearly has a far higher ceiling than his disgruntled compatriot does.

Furthermore, Icardi’s absence has also rid the team of a major off-field distraction and a possible source of division within the locker room. Events like this do have an effect on team morale, and if results are anything to go by, Inter have handled it very well thus far.

Now, it’s not as though Icardi’s career will now fade into oblivion. He is still a talented centre-forward and clubs which could use an upgrade at the position, such as Real Madrid or Liverpool, should consider making a play for him in the coming off-season. The controversy around him means that he is also likely to be signed at a reduced price if he leaves, which now seems almost inevitable.

Nevertheless, Icardi’s removal from the Inter lineup clearly seems to have been the right move. It appears that for Inter Milan, this is an instance of “addition by subtraction”.

The Weekly Take, Issue 53: Still Clutch as Ever

Throughout his career as a footballer, Ole Gunnar Solskjær was known for his clutch play in high-pressure situations.

Of course, the most famous such example took place in Manchester United’s 1999 Champions League final victory over Bayern Munich. Having come on as a substitute in the 81st minute, Solskjær went on to score the title-winning goal in stoppage time. The victory meant that the Red Devils clinched the Treble that season, becoming only the fourth team to do so and the first from a major league.

Another classic Solskjær clutch play took place against Newcastle in 1998. Newcastle’s Rob Lee was closing in on the Manchester United goal and was about to score the Magpies’ game-winning goal. A Newcastle win would have dealt a significant blow to United’s title challenge. Then, just when it was least expected, Solskjær tore across the field, somehow made up an enormous distance deficit, and barrelled into Lee to prevent the goal. Although the Norwegian did receive a red card for the tackle, he made a big play in a high-pressure situation – something which, as I mentioned, would become a feature of his career.

It now appears that Solskjær’s “clutch gene” has carried over to the other side of the touchline. Ever since taking over as United’s head coach in December 2018, he has done an outstanding job.

This week, he had his best moment in the position thus far, as United scored a sensational Champions League upset victory over Paris Saint-Germain. United’s 3-1 victory made up for a 2-0 first-leg loss, with Marcus Rashford scoring the penalty that put them into the quarterfinals for the first time since 2014.

It’s impossible to understate how great Solskjær has been thus far.

Since Solskjær took over, United have won 14 out of 17 matches, and of the three they did not win, one was the first leg of the Champions League match against PSG, while another was a 0-0 draw against Liverpool. Over those 17 matches, United have scored 39 goals while conceding just 13.

Solskjær has also managed to revive the seasons of players who had been slumping badly prior to his appointment. The likes of Paul Pogba, Romelu Lukaku, and Anthony Martial all seem to have received something of a second wind. Pogba has also rediscovered the superstar levels which he is capable of but not reached for some time now.

United truly had the deck stacked against them heading into the second leg against PSG. Key players such as Martial, Nemanja Matić, and Ander Herrera were all absent due to injuries. On top of that, Pogba was suspended after receiving a red card in the first leg. Add the facts that United were already trailing by two goals and that the second leg was to be played at PSG’s Parc des Princes, and one could easily see why most assumed that PSG would make short work of United.

Yet somehow, against all the odds, Solskjær led United to an improbable victory. Despite having much less possession and far fewer goalscoring chances, United came in with just the right strategy to neutralize the threats posed by the likes of Marco Verratti, Kylian Mbappé, and, sweetest of all, former United player Ángel Di María. The Argentine had recently trash-talked his former club, so it was especially pleasing for United to get their revenge in this way.

Solskjær has been able to do something that even legendary coaches such as Louis van Gaal and José Mourinho could not. He has once again turned United into a powerhouse of world football. They actually look like genuine contenders to win the Champions League – something they have not been since the 2011-12 season.

It doesn’t always work out when a retired player returns to coach his former team. The likes of Filippo Inzaghi, Clarence Seedorf, and more recently, Santiago Solari are all evidence of this.

However, this is clearly not the case with Solskjær. Although he has only been at the helm of Manchester United for a short time, he has already done great things.

United’s numerous fans have good reason to be optimistic, because with Ole Gunnar Solskjær in the dugout, this team’s future is brighter than it has been for a very long time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 52: The CR7 Effect

Every great football dynasty has a singular moment which ends up being the beginning of the end of their time at the top.

For example, after the legendary Inter Milan team of 1962-67 lost the European Cup final to Celtic, the “Grande Inter” era came to an abrupt halt. Over the next 20 years, Inter only won four titles and finished in the top two of Serie A just three times.

It became evident that Liverpool’s two-decade run of sustained excellence, yielding title after title including four European Cups, was over after a crushing 5-1 loss against Coventry in December 1992. The Reds have not been the same since.

AC Milan were the dominant team of the early to mid-2000s, reaching three Champions League finals between 2003 and 2007 and winning two. However, they suffered a shock loss to Arsenal in the 2008 Champions League’s round of 16 and were subsequently displaced from world football’s top table in short order.

Real Madrid have hit such a watershed moment.

Real’s 1-0 loss to Barcelona in a La Liga El Clásico match underscored this fact: the transfer of Cristiano Ronaldo to Juventus brought about the end of the current Real Madrid dynasty.

The numbers are revealing. Real are currently on pace to average 70 points in La Liga this season. They have not ended the season with that low a total since 2006, three years before Ronaldo’s arrival at the Santiago Bernabéu.

Real’s goalscoring output, or lack thereof, is even more damning.

At their current pace, Real are on track to score 63 league goals this season. This would be their lowest total since 2000. What makes this even worse is the fact that Real’s lowest league goal total in the Ronaldo era was 94.

But it’s not just about the raw numbers. There’s a reason why Cristiano Ronaldo won four Ballon d’Or titles during his time at Real, and why Real won four Champions League titles during the Ronaldo era.

Just Ronaldo’s presence on the field tipped the balance in Real’s favour. Such was the threat he posed and the fear he placed in opponents that it was almost as though Real were playing 12 against 11 when Ronaldo was playing.

It’s not as if Los Merengues didn’t try to rebuild in the wake of the Portuguese superstar’s departure. They signed Thibaut Courtois from Chelsea, who was fresh off winning the Golden Glove at the World Cup. Unfortunately for Real, Courtois has not kept up the form that earned him the honour. Real Madrid have conceded 31 league goals this season, putting them level with 14th-placed Leganés in this statistic.

Real were also banking on reigning Ballon d’Or winner Luka Modrić to assume the superstar mantle that the Portuguese legend left behind. However, they failed to take something very important into account: Modrić’s age. The Croatian is 33 years old. For players other than goalkeepers and defenders, this is usually around the age when a player’s performance begins to “fall off a cliff”. It is almost certain that last season was Modrić’s last as an elite player.

Real’s immense dependence on Ronaldo during his nine years there has clearly been shown this season. The signings of Courtois and Álvaro Odriozola, a coaching change which installed Santiago Solari at the helm, and the institution of a more team-based strategy do not seem to have improved the situation at the club. Ronaldo’s long shadow still dominates the landscape at the Bernabéu.

However, in this coming off-season, there is one thing Real can do to mitigate the situation. Real need to sign Eden Hazard from Chelsea. As I’ve written about before, Hazard is currently wasting his prime years on a dysfunctional team which has completely failed to build around his tremendous talent. While Hazard might not be at the level of a prime Ronaldo, he is nevertheless good enough to be the player who leads Real back to the top.

It is never easy to replace a player like Cristiano Ronaldo. Although Real started the season strongly, it was inevitable that at some point, they would face significant struggles. However, no one could have predicted that it would have been quite this bad in the Spanish capital.

The Weekly Take, Issue 51: Death, Taxes, and Bayern

This has not been a vintage season by any means for Bayern Munich.

The Bavarian club is at risk of losing the Bundesliga title for the first time since 2012.

Their over-dependence on Robert Lewandowski has only become more prominent as the season has gone on. The Pole has scored 25 of Bayern’s 60 goals in all competitions thus far.

Niko Kovač, who took over as Bayern head coach at the beginning of the season, almost lost his job just a few months ago.

So, it was no surprise that heading into the first leg of their round of 16 Champions League tie against Liverpool, Bayern were viewed as the clear underdogs – a position they seldom find themselves in.

But as the Reds found out, write off Bayern Munich at your own peril. Bayern left Anfield with a 0-0 draw, and with the second leg to be played at the Allianz Arena, they suddenly seem likely to reach the Champions League quarterfinals for the eighth consecutive year.

Bayern’s consistency in the Champions League is absolutely staggering.

Not only have they made it to the last eight in each of the last seven campaigns, they have also done so in all but three seasons since 2005. Even more remarkable is the fact that in all but two seasons since 2010, Bayern have reached the semifinals.

This is a testament to the remarkable team culture and spirit that has been built in Munich. No other team in world football, apart from Barcelona and Real Madrid, even comes close, and this is what separates great clubs from legendary clubs.

Now, don’t misunderstand me. Teams such as Juventus, Manchester United, AC Milan, and Liverpool, just to name a few, are great, historic clubs with many honours to their name and tremendous club legacies.

However, Bayern are, in my opinion, one of an exclusive club of three. They are the sort of team about which, no matter the era or the squad, you just have this sense that somehow, some way, they will figure things out and be all right in the end. While some of the other teams I mentioned have had this “aura” at certain points in their history, none of them have had it be a constant feature of their team the way Bayern have.

This once again goes back to team culture. Consider the fact that, despite having all-time greats such as Arjen Robben, Robert Lewandowski, Manuel Neuer, and Thomas Müller among their squad members, this is a comparatively egoless team. All their stars have been willing to buy in and put the team before individual glory.

Bayern have always been more about the collective than the individual. From Franz Beckenbauer to Gerd Müller to Lothar Matthäus to Oliver Kahn and many others besides, Bayern’s superstars have always set the tone of the team’s culture in a positive way, and this has always translated to results on the field.

Arguably the greatest example of this culture of winning was shown in Bayern’s 2001 Champions League semifinal victory over Real. On paper, Bayern seemed to have no shot. This was a Real team boasting players such as Raúl, Roberto Carlos, Luís Figo, and Claude Makélélé. On the other hand, Bayern’s only genuine superstar at the time was Kahn. Yet, despite Bayern’s clear talent disadvantage, they not only won the tie, but did so by beating Real in both legs, winning 1-0 and 2-1 respectively.

This is a big reason why many rising stars want to play for Bayern. They know that the exemplary team atmosphere will do their budding careers a world of good. In their current squad, players such as Thiago Alcântara, Ribéry, Niklas Süle, and Renato Sanches were all 24 years old or younger when they joined. Each of them has since seen their careers go from strength to strength, and Ribéry has even become one of Bayern’s greatest players ever.

As a Borussia Dortmund fan, it pains me a little to say this, but greatness has to be recognized and applauded, and Bayern Munich have been truly great for an almost-unbroken stretch of nearly 50 years.

Do not be surprised if Bayern go on to win their sixth Champions League title this season.