The Weekly Take, Issue 52: The CR7 Effect

Every great football dynasty has a singular moment which ends up being the beginning of the end of their time at the top.

For example, after the legendary Inter Milan team of 1962-67 lost the European Cup final to Celtic, the “Grande Inter” era came to an abrupt halt. Over the next 20 years, Inter only won four titles and finished in the top two of Serie A just three times.

It became evident that Liverpool’s two-decade run of sustained excellence, yielding title after title including four European Cups, was over after a crushing 5-1 loss against Coventry in December 1992. The Reds have not been the same since.

AC Milan were the dominant team of the early to mid-2000s, reaching three Champions League finals between 2003 and 2007 and winning two. However, they suffered a shock loss to Arsenal in the 2008 Champions League’s round of 16 and were subsequently displaced from world football’s top table in short order.

Real Madrid have hit such a watershed moment.

Real’s 1-0 loss to Barcelona in a La Liga El Clásico match underscored this fact: the transfer of Cristiano Ronaldo to Juventus brought about the end of the current Real Madrid dynasty.

The numbers are revealing. Real are currently on pace to average 70 points in La Liga this season. They have not ended the season with that low a total since 2006, three years before Ronaldo’s arrival at the Santiago Bernabéu.

Real’s goalscoring output, or lack thereof, is even more damning.

At their current pace, Real are on track to score 63 league goals this season. This would be their lowest total since 2000. What makes this even worse is the fact that Real’s lowest league goal total in the Ronaldo era was 94.

But it’s not just about the raw numbers. There’s a reason why Cristiano Ronaldo won four Ballon d’Or titles during his time at Real, and why Real won four Champions League titles during the Ronaldo era.

Just Ronaldo’s presence on the field tipped the balance in Real’s favour. Such was the threat he posed and the fear he placed in opponents that it was almost as though Real were playing 12 against 11 when Ronaldo was playing.

It’s not as if Los Merengues didn’t try to rebuild in the wake of the Portuguese superstar’s departure. They signed Thibaut Courtois from Chelsea, who was fresh off winning the Golden Glove at the World Cup. Unfortunately for Real, Courtois has not kept up the form that earned him the honour. Real Madrid have conceded 31 league goals this season, putting them level with 14th-placed Leganés in this statistic.

Real were also banking on reigning Ballon d’Or winner Luka Modrić to assume the superstar mantle that the Portuguese legend left behind. However, they failed to take something very important into account: Modrić’s age. The Croatian is 33 years old. For players other than goalkeepers and defenders, this is usually around the age when a player’s performance begins to “fall off a cliff”. It is almost certain that last season was Modrić’s last as an elite player.

Real’s immense dependence on Ronaldo during his nine years there has clearly been shown this season. The signings of Courtois and Álvaro Odriozola, a coaching change which installed Santiago Solari at the helm, and the institution of a more team-based strategy do not seem to have improved the situation at the club. Ronaldo’s long shadow still dominates the landscape at the Bernabéu.

However, in this coming off-season, there is one thing Real can do to mitigate the situation. Real need to sign Eden Hazard from Chelsea. As I’ve written about before, Hazard is currently wasting his prime years on a dysfunctional team which has completely failed to build around his tremendous talent. While Hazard might not be at the level of a prime Ronaldo, he is nevertheless good enough to be the player who leads Real back to the top.

It is never easy to replace a player like Cristiano Ronaldo. Although Real started the season strongly, it was inevitable that at some point, they would face significant struggles. However, no one could have predicted that it would have been quite this bad in the Spanish capital.