The Weekly Take, Issue 107: And Then There Were Three

Prior to the most recent Bundesliga matchday, there had been four teams in contention for the league title: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and Borussia Mönchengladbach. However, that number has now been reduced to three.

Gladbach's 3-1 loss against Bayer Leverkusen almost certainly erased their slim chance of winning the league title for the first time since 1977. Two goals scored by Kai Havertz as well as another by Sven Bender left Die Fohlen nine points behind league leaders Bayern with just seven matchdays remaining. To make matters even worse for Gladbach, this loss caused them to slip behind Leverkusen in the league table; they now face a challenge to qualify for next season's Champions League.

It wasn't that long ago when Gladbach were in first place in the league and in position to potentially have a historic season by clinching the league title. However, this will no longer be the case.

So just how has it all fallen apart?

One likely explanation is that of regression to the mean.

Over any given sample size, there is always bound to be an element of randomness involved. However, the larger the sample size, the less the effect of the randomness. Thus, the later into the season it is, the truer the image of a team's true level of play. This may very well have been the case with Gladbach. It could simply have been that they got off to an unusually hot start and are only experiencing the effects of regression to the mean now.

Gladbach's lack of title experience might also have contributed to their recent loss of form. It must be kept on mind that the club from the Rhine region has not even been involved in a Bundesliga title race since 1986, when they finished seven points behind eventual champions Bayern. Although they have since finished third in the league twice, both were distant third-place finishes. With not only the odds but also the club's history working against them, it is little wonder that the pressure of the title race eventually caught up to them. That said, the experience which they have gained this season will be good for them going forward.

Gladbach's title bid was also harmed by their lack of a superstar. They do have many solid players such as Alassane Pléa, Marcus Thuram, Yann Sommer, Stefan Lainer, and Matthias Ginter. However, they lack that one star who can put the team on his back and drag the team to victory when they need it. It is possible that Thuram will reach that level someday; however, as he is still very young, that day is probably a long way off. Unfortunately, Gladbach have neither the money, prestige, or glamour required to attract such a star. Thus, the reality is that they will have to make do with the resources at their disposal.

I mentioned that I believe Thuram has the highest ceiling of all of Gladbach's players who are yet to peak. Thus, it is imperative that Gladbach make the top four and qualify for the Champions League. If they do not, there is a very real possibility that this season could be the Frenchman's last in northwestern Germany. At just 22, he has his prime years ahead of him and has already been linked with clubs such as Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund. A player of Thuram's calibre will certainly want to play in Europe's leading club competition - something which Gladbach might not be able to provide.

Head coach Marco Rose might soon be on his way out of Borussia-Park as well. Rose has established himself as one of the Bundesliga's best coaches and one who is clearly capable of taking the reins at a bigger club. A lack of Champions League football next season could cause him to leave in order to further burnish his credentials at the highest level, whether with another Bundesliga club or elsewhere.

For Borussia Mönchengladbach, a season which began with so much promise might very well end in disappointment. If they are to remain competitive next season, qualification for the Champions League is a must. For to do so might spell the beginning of the end of Gladbach's time as a leading club in Germany. 

The Weekly Take, Issue 92: Breaking a 42-Year Drought

For the last seven years, Bayern Munich have had a stranglehold over the Bundesliga title. The Bavarian club have won the league title every year since 2013; thus, at the start of this season, most expected Bayern to make it eight in a row.

However, as things stands right now, it is not only plausible but actually likely that Bayern do not win the Bundesliga title this season. This fact was highlighted by their 2-1 loss to league leaders Borussia Mönchengladbach. A stoppage-time penalty scored by Ramy Bensaibini, his second goal of the match, clinched the victory for Die Fohlen. The win also helped Gladbach retain their one-point lead over RB Leipzig in their pursuit of a first league title since 1977, when they had a team containing players such as Allan Simonsen, Uli Stielike, Berti Vogts, and Jupp Heynckes.

Almost nobody could have foreseen the excellent season which the club from northwestern Germany have had thus far. They finished fifth in last season's Bundesliga, 23 points behind Bayern, and thus failed to qualify for this season's Champions League. Furthermore, they did not bring in any major signings during the past off-season and spent relatively modest amounts to bring players to the club. They even lost their best player when they sold Thorgan Hazard to Borussia Dortmund for €25.5 million.

These facts make one wonder: just how have Gladbach done it?

The most obvious reason has to be the coaching change made during the off-season. Dieter Hecking, who had been Gladbach's head coach since 2016, did not have his contract renewed and was replaced by Marco Rose. Although Hecking is an experienced coach, he was never able to bring the tactical nous and dynamism with which Rose has been able to infuse the team. Rose has already established himself as probably the best or second-best coach in the Bundesliga, depending on how one ranks Leipzig's Julian Nagelsmann.

The aforementioned new signings have also exceeded expectations. Marcus Thuram has begun to come out of the shadow of his father Lilian, one of the greatest defenders of all time. Unlike his father, however, Marcus plays up front and is having a breakout season. Prior to this season, the Frenchman had never before played in a major league and had scored just 12 career league goals. In just 13 league matches for Gladbach this season, though, he already has six.

Stefan Lainer is another of Gladbach's new signings who deserves a mention. He was brought to the club by Rose who already knew of him because he had played under Rose's coaching at Red Bull Salzburg. The Austrian right-back had not been on most teams' radars when he was signed during the off-season. Since then, though, Lainer has made teams across the Bundesliga and beyond take notice of him with a series of impressive performances. He too is in the midst of the best season of his career to date.

The impressive performances of Gladbach's new recruits have been augmented by equally notable displays from their veteran stalwarts such as Oscar Wendt, Christoph Kramer, and Yann Sommer. Not many expected these players to have been playing at their current level this season; although most knew that they were all solid and capable players, the level at which they have played during this season has greatly surpassed expectations.

Now, I won't get myself carried away with my praise of Gladbach. Though they have been extremely impressive thus far, I do not believe that they will win the league. At the moment, I consider Leipzig to be the favourites to win their first league title in their club's history. This is because player for player, the club from Saxony are superior to Gladbach. Nagelsmann is also probably the best coach in the Bundesliga; although Rose has been impressive thus far, Nagelsmann has also accumulated the big-match experience which Rose has not. Leipzig also have a larger budget than do Gladbach; thus, they can outspend Gladbach during the upcoming January transfer window and therefore bring in higher-quality players.

That being said, no credit should be taken away from Gladbach. They have exceeded everyone's expectations for them by a long way this season, and a first Bundesliga title in 42 years would prove to be a remarkable end to what is turning out to be the club's best season in decades.