Prior to the most recent Bundesliga matchday, there had been four teams in contention for the league title: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and Borussia Mönchengladbach. However, that number has now been reduced to three.
Gladbach's 3-1 loss against Bayer Leverkusen almost certainly erased their slim chance of winning the league title for the first time since 1977. Two goals scored by Kai Havertz as well as another by Sven Bender left Die Fohlen nine points behind league leaders Bayern with just seven matchdays remaining. To make matters even worse for Gladbach, this loss caused them to slip behind Leverkusen in the league table; they now face a challenge to qualify for next season's Champions League.
It wasn't that long ago when Gladbach were in first place in the league and in position to potentially have a historic season by clinching the league title. However, this will no longer be the case.
So just how has it all fallen apart?
One likely explanation is that of regression to the mean.
Over any given sample size, there is always bound to be an element of randomness involved. However, the larger the sample size, the less the effect of the randomness. Thus, the later into the season it is, the truer the image of a team's true level of play. This may very well have been the case with Gladbach. It could simply have been that they got off to an unusually hot start and are only experiencing the effects of regression to the mean now.
Gladbach's lack of title experience might also have contributed to their recent loss of form. It must be kept on mind that the club from the Rhine region has not even been involved in a Bundesliga title race since 1986, when they finished seven points behind eventual champions Bayern. Although they have since finished third in the league twice, both were distant third-place finishes. With not only the odds but also the club's history working against them, it is little wonder that the pressure of the title race eventually caught up to them. That said, the experience which they have gained this season will be good for them going forward.
Gladbach's title bid was also harmed by their lack of a superstar. They do have many solid players such as Alassane Pléa, Marcus Thuram, Yann Sommer, Stefan Lainer, and Matthias Ginter. However, they lack that one star who can put the team on his back and drag the team to victory when they need it. It is possible that Thuram will reach that level someday; however, as he is still very young, that day is probably a long way off. Unfortunately, Gladbach have neither the money, prestige, or glamour required to attract such a star. Thus, the reality is that they will have to make do with the resources at their disposal.
I mentioned that I believe Thuram has the highest ceiling of all of Gladbach's players who are yet to peak. Thus, it is imperative that Gladbach make the top four and qualify for the Champions League. If they do not, there is a very real possibility that this season could be the Frenchman's last in northwestern Germany. At just 22, he has his prime years ahead of him and has already been linked with clubs such as Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund. A player of Thuram's calibre will certainly want to play in Europe's leading club competition - something which Gladbach might not be able to provide.
Head coach Marco Rose might soon be on his way out of Borussia-Park as well. Rose has established himself as one of the Bundesliga's best coaches and one who is clearly capable of taking the reins at a bigger club. A lack of Champions League football next season could cause him to leave in order to further burnish his credentials at the highest level, whether with another Bundesliga club or elsewhere.
For Borussia Mönchengladbach, a season which began with so much promise might very well end in disappointment. If they are to remain competitive next season, qualification for the Champions League is a must. For to do so might spell the beginning of the end of Gladbach's time as a leading club in Germany.
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