The Weekly Take, Issue 203: European Champs to European Chumps

In what will undoubtedly go down as one of the most iconic upsets in the history of international football, North Macedonia stunned Italy 1-0 in a 2022 World Cup qualifier. Aleksandar Trajkovski scored a stoppage-time goal to clinch a spot in a winner-takes-all match against Portugal with a spot in the World Cup on the line and silencing the crowd at the Stadio Renzo Barbera.

The Balkan team's victory ensured that the Azzurri would fail to qualify for the global showpiece tournament for a second consecutive edition - something that has never happened before for one of the world's most decorated international teams. Prior to their failure to qualify for the 2018 tournament, Italy had qualified for every World Cup since 1962.

This was a match which the reigning European champions should have had no business losing. The Italians launched a veritable fusillade at the North Macedonian goal, attempting 32 shots compared to just three from their opponents. With 66% of the possession, Italy were fully in control of proceedings right from the opening kick-off. By every metric except for, of course, the most important one of all, Italy should have cruised to victory, but it was just not to be.

There's plenty of blame to be doled out for yet another failure on Italy's part. For starters, goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma deserves a good deal of scrutiny. A goalkeeper of Donnarumma's calibre should have been able to save Trajkowski's shot. However, the Paris Saint-Germain goalkeeper made a crucial error in a critical match for the second time in a month after having already committed one which caused PSG to lose their Champions League round of 16 tie against Real Madrid.

Think back to Italy's victorious Euro 2020 campaign. In it, Donnarumma was Italy's best player, putting the team on his back at times and saving three penalties against England in the final to give Italy a first European title since 1968. Somewhat surprisingly, since then, he has faltered on multiple occasions when he has been needed most.

I have gone on and on about the effect which being at a club like PSG has on its players' mentalities. It appears that this is true in Donnarumma's case. When he starred for Italy during Euro 2020, he had not yet played even one match for the French club, but not even half a year after arriving at the Parc des Princes, his big-game mentality has severely declined. This isn't unique to Donnarumma - the same can be said of his PSG teammates Neymar, Kylian Mbappé, and even Lionel Messi.

Head coach Roberto Mancini must also shoulder some of the blame. Mancini got it completely wrong with Italy's starting 11. His decision to forgo Mario Balotelli as part of his team backfired. Though Balotelli has had a checkered and somewhat memetic career up to this point, his playstyle would have been the perfect counter to North Macedonia's tactical approach and would likely have led to one or more goals - not necessarily scored by Balotelli himself; however, his presence and physicality would have done much to open up the front third for his teammates.

Mancini's selection of Emerson Palmieri at full-back was also a poor one. Federico Dimarco and Cristiano Biraghi are both better options but were both ignored in favour of the Chelsea player. This reflects another failure on Mancini's part: blind loyalty to highly-capped players. Emerson has 26 caps to Biraghi's 11 and Dimarco's none; however, the latter two were overlooked despite being obviously superior players.

Serie A's top brass must also come under fire. They decided against postponing Matchday 30 of the domestic league, thus denying the players more time to prepare for this crucial qualifier. This reduced preparation time was also a likely contributor to their failure in Sicily - something almost everyone should have seen coming but which Serie A's administration somehow did not.

Regardless of whether Italy qualify for the 2026 World Cup, it will have been at least 12 years since their most recent tournament and at least 20 since their most recent appearance in the World Cup's knockout rounds. With the exception of France in the 1960s and 1970s, this is an unprecedented run of failure in the history of any of international football's traditional powerhouses.

Can Italy get back to the top of the mountain? They might - but it will take many years and wholesale changes at all levels.

The Weekly Take, Issue 202: A Critical Missed Opportunity

Prior to their Premier League match against Liverpool, Arsenal's season had been turning for the better after a slow start. With nine win in their preceding 11 league matches including five in a row, the Gunners should have been primed to give Liverpool all that they could handle - especially with Liverpool superstar Mohamed Salah restricted to an appearance off the bench due to a foot injury.

However, the match did not go according to plan for Arsenal at all. In a stark demonstration of the gulf in quality between the two teams, Liverpool beat Arsenal 2-0 despite not even exerting anywhere near their maximum level of effort. Diogo Jota scored Liverpool's first goal before being substituted almost immediately; his replacement, Roberto Firmino, wasted almost no time in adding to Liverpool's lead.

Arsenal will certainly rue this loss because a victory would have seen them move four points ahead of Manchester United and solidified their grip on fourth place and the last qualification spot for next season's Champions League. More than anything else, though, this match once again exposed some of Arsenal's most pertinent weaknesses which might just cause them to miss out on the top four.

One important question that hasn't been addressed all season long and has become even more relevant following the departure of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to Barcelona is this: do Arsenal really know who makes up their best attacking midfield trio? Choosing between Bukayo Saka, Emile Smith Rowe, Martin Ødegaard, and Gabriel Martinelli can prove to be quite the issue, especially now that Aubameyang has left, making Alexandre Lacazette the club's only starter-level striker. Even at this late stage of the season, the evidence on display during the Liverpool match clearly shows that Arsenal still haven't gotten it quite right in this area; if they end up surrendering their spot in the top four, this could have turned out to have been the main reason behind their downfall.

In the upcoming off-season, it might also be prudent for Arsenal to consider signing a new starting goalkeeper. Aaron Ramsdale has been rather inconsistent all season long; there are stretches when he saves just about anything but follows up those hot streaks with errors like the one he committed to allow Liverpool their first goal. Ramsdale is no scrub by any means, but is he really the goalkeeper upon whom Arsenal would like to stake their long-term future? Unfortunately, I just don't see it. He has not always been able to deliver at that level when it has most been needed.

Going back to the other end of the field, it's time to question Lacazette as well. This season, the Frenchman has scored a paltry four league goals. If he finishes the season at his current goalscoring rate, he will end the campaign with just six - his lowest tally in nine years and by far the lowest of his career at the Emirates Stadium. Not only that - at the age of 30, Lacazette does not fit this team's timeline. Arsenal have a young squad; most of their key players are 25 or younger. It does not make sense to continue to make a player who will soon be on the downswing of his career (if he isn't already there) one of the main components of the team.

There can be little doubt that this season has been very much better for Arsenal than was their disaster of a campaign in 2020-21. They do have an intriguing young core - albeit one without an ace like Aubameyang in his prime. That being said, their weaknesses continue to be glaring in many ways. It seems as though Arsenal have a clear idea of what should come next in the post-Aubameyang era, but they have not taken many, if any, steps in that direction.

Arsenal have not had a wider window of opportunity in years, given the ongoing struggles of United, Tottenham Hotspur, and most notably of all, Chelsea. Whether they will take advantage of this opportunity, though, remains to be seen. Although Arsenal might be in a solid position at the moment with regard to their league performance, it cannot be disputed: the only thing consistent about this Arsenal team is their inconsistency.

The Weekly Take, Issue 201: Gaggers in Paris

PSG have done it again.

In a turn of events that might seem unexpected on the surface but in reality should not have surprised even one person watching, PSG surrendered a two-goal aggregate lead over Real Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie. Despite being 1-0 ahead and 2-0 up on aggregate with 30 minutes remaining, PSG once again blew a golden opportunity, conceding a hat-trick to Real striker Karim Benzema and handing their Spanish opponents a spot in the quarterfinals.

Somehow, this team manages to outdo itself year after year when it comes to finding ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. From the infamous "Remontada" loss at the hands of Barcelona in 2017 to an inexplicable collapse against a Manchester United team which they should have handily beaten in 2019 to this 3-0 loss against Real - there has never been a team which so completely and utterly freezes on the biggest of stages in spite of their overwhelming talent and abundance of financial resources.

As usual, there is an enormous amount of blame to be divvied up. However, I'll start with the club itself. I don't mean the owners or the front office or anyone else who runs PSG - I'm talking about Paris Saint-Germain, the football club.

With the weight of recent history against them, it almost seems as though PSG's players expect to fail when the stakes are at their highest and the lights are brightest. No matter how large their lead, in a way they have already lost the mental battle just by putting on the PSG jersey.

To make this even more alarming, it seems as though new arrivals at the Parc des Princes have their minds "poisoned" by this negative mindset. Consider Kylian Mbappé, who before signing for PSG had put the world on notice with a stunning breakout run in the 2018 World Cup, playing a key role in France's World Cup triumph all while aged just 19. Certainly, at that point, one would not have considered him a player likely to falter under severe pressure. However, this has completely changed ever since he joined PSG. Despite scoring PSG's only goal during this match, Mbappé once again had a tough time in general - something which is no longer new to him after having joined PSG.

And now, I'd like to turn my attention to the one player who I believe has done more to foster this unprecedented run of choking than anyone else: Neymar. Let's not forget that the Brazilian's only Champions League title came with Barcelona while "riding shotgun" alongside a prime Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez. Again and again and again, Neymar has failed to deliver in the most intense, do-or-die situations. Over the years, he has been arguably the chief culprit behind PSG's repeated Champions League failures.

I have said it time and again: among all the legendary players to come out of Brazil, Neymar is arguably in the top five in terms of pure talent. However, it has become incredibly obvious: you cannot win a Champions League title with a team built around Neymar. He simply does not have that big-match mentality which is needed to elevate a team to that highest level. Of course, PSG are no longer necessarily built around Neymar, which brings me to my next point.

It's time to write the obituary for Lionel Messi's iconic career. Though he may be the greatest to ever do it, there's no more hiding the facts - he is washed. Ever since joining PSG, he has looked like an absolute shell of the player he once was. This is understandable given that he is now 34, but the decline has been utterly astonishing - it calls to mind the likes of Ronaldinho and Ronaldo Nazário, who both completely "fell off the cliff" when they aged. Add to that the fact that even Messi is not immune to the effects of simply playing for PSG, and you have your answer.

What has been happening at PSG over the past few years almost defies explanation - we may never see anything like this again. At this point, as soon as a new Champions League campaign begins, one can already start asking "and just how will PSG blow it this year?"

The Weekly Take, Issue 200: Taking a Look Back

Well, it's another "milestone" edition, so this'll be a little different.

This time, I'll be revisiting some of my takes from past issues and analyzing them through the lens of the present to find out how they ended up. Some aged well; others certainly did not.

Post: https://theweeklytake3.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-weekly-take-issue-26-powerhouse.html

Date: September 2, 2018
Club: AC Milan

Quote: "(This) season could shape up to be the best in many years for one of Italy’s most storied clubs. While I don’t necessarily think they will hit such heights, do not be surprised if Milan finish as high as second in Serie A, win the Europa League, or both."

Outcome: AC Milan would only finish fifth in the league, once again missing out on the Champions League. In addition, their major mid-season acquisition proved to end up having little to no impact. More on that in the next segment.

Post: https://theweeklytake3.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-weekly-take-issue-47-best-signing.html

Date: January 28, 2019
Club: AC Milan
Player: Krzysztof Piątek
Quote: "I had been of the belief that AC Milan were one of those clubs who were one key piece away from being serious contenders, both domestically and in Europe. Now, I genuinely feel that Milan have got their man[...] [...]Names such as Gunnar Nordahl, Marco van Basten, Andriy Shevchenko, and Pippo Inzaghi have all shone in the famous red-and-black jersey. Now, Milan may just have brought in the 'heir to the throne'".

Outcome: Piątek ended up doing next to nothing for AC Milan. After scoring just four league goals in the first half of the 2019-20 season, Piątek was sold to Hertha BSC in January 2020. He never again showed the form which he displayed at Genoa and convinced Milan to sign him.

Post: https://theweeklytake3.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-weekly-take-issue-61-step-closer-to.html

Date: May 3, 2019
Club: Liverpool
Coach: Jürgen Klopp
Quote: "[At] what point does he (Klopp) no longer get a pass for these late-tournament failures?[...] [...] [A] Champions League title would serve as the ultimate boost to his legacy. Unfortunately for him, however, it appears as though this title might not arrive for quite some time."

Outcome: In the wake of Liverpool's 3-0 loss to Barcelona in the first leg of the 2018-19 Champions League semifinals, it looked as though Liverpool had no shot of advancing to the final. Astonishingly, they reversed the deficit, eliminated Barça in an iconic comeback, then beat Tottenham Hotspur to win the Champions League.

Post: https://theweeklytake3.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-weekly-take-issue-69-paying-through.html

Date: June 30, 2019

Club: Manchester United

Player: Aaron Wan-Bissaka

Quote: "It’s not that I believe the Londoner will be a complete failure at Old Trafford.[...] [...]What United need right now is a player who will be ready to contribute at a high level straight from his first day at United. Wan-Bissaka does not fit that bill."

Outcome: I pretty much called it exactly. No, Wan-Bissaka has not been a bust; he is now a regular starter for United. However, he has not even come close to living up to his lofty transfer price. This is certainly a transfer that United fans wish could have been undone.

Post: https://theweeklytake3.blogspot.com/2020/02/the-weekly-take-issue-101-next-great.html

Date: February 11, 2020

Club: RB Leipzig

Player: Dayot Upamecano
Quote: "(It) appears that the potential of the player whom I believe to be the next great French defender is almost limitless."

Outcome: While Upamecano has certainly been a solid player in the time since I made this post, he has not quite fulfilled the praise which I had lavished upon him over two years ago. That said, I was right about the prospect of Upamecano signing for a bigger club (Bayern Munich).

Post: https://theweeklytake3.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-weekly-take-issue-111-die-bullens.html

Date: June 21, 2020

Club: Chelsea

Players: Timo Werner, Christian Pulisic
Quote: "It's not every day that a club gets to sign a potential future Ballon d'Or winner. Chelsea now have two."

Outcome: This post was made shortly after Chelsea confirmed their signing of Werner.

...The less said about this one, the better. Let's move on.

Post: https://theweeklytake3.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-weekly-take-issue-128-one-injury.html

Date: October 17, 2020

Club: Liverpool

Player: Virgil van Dijk

Quote: "This injury is a crushing blow to Liverpool's season. Van Dijk is a force who is truly irreplaceable. His injury hands the status of Premier League title favourites to Manchester City.[...] [...][Overcoming] the loss of perhaps a top-five player in the world for almost an entire season might prove to be a step too far."

Outcome: Liverpool's Premier League title defense never really got off the ground due to van Dijk's ACL tear. They would only finish third in the league and be eliminated in the Champions League quarterfinals.

Post: https://theweeklytake3.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-weekly-take-issue-136-they-surely.html

Date: December 13, 2020

Club: Real Madrid

Coach: Zinedine Zidane

Quote: "Zidane has clearly built up a body of work which proves that he is an outstanding coach. Firing him would be an epic mistake of almost unparalleled proportions. The decision should be obvious. Only one question remains: will Real finally 'get it', or will they revert to type?"

Outcome: I'll give myself partial credit for this one - Zidane resigned at the end of the season; however, his position had been becoming increasingly untenable at the time. Real failed to win any titles in the 2020-21 season: they finished second in the league and were eliminated in the Champions League semifinals.

Post: https://theweeklytake3.blogspot.com/2021/08/the-weekly-take-issue-172-missing-piece.html

Date: August 22, 2021

Club: Chelsea

Player: Romelu Lukaku
Quote: "Lukaku could realistically claim the status of 'undisputed best centre-forward in the world' as soon as this season.[...] [...]Chelsea badly needed a true goalscoring threat to not only make a serious Premier League title challenge, but also to contend for back-to-back Champions League titles. With Lukaku back at Chelsea, they now have exactly that."

Outcome: Lukaku has not even been close to the player he was at Inter Milan. He is on pace to score just seven league goals this season, which would be a career-low ever since becoming a starter in a major European league for the first time.