The Weekly Take, Issue 151: The Pressure to Deliver a Title Increases

The first matchday of qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup saw Belgium take on Wales at the King Power at Den Dreef. As was expected, Belgium recorded an easy victory, beating Wales 3-1 through goals scored by Kevin De Bruyne, Thorgan Hazard, and Romelu Lukaku.

With Euro 2020 (yes, it will still bear that name) approaching and the World Cup just over a year and a half away, there are two more chances for far and away the greatest era in the history of Belgium's national team to culminate in a first-ever tournament victory. After years of near-misses, doing so would be especially sweet.

Considering Belgium's current standing within the international football landscape today, the national team's record prior to the 2014 World Cup is often overlooked. Up to that point, it had been utterly abject. Only once had Belgium even made it to the quarterfinals of a World Cup; they had even failed to qualify for the prior two.

Belgium's record at the European Championships told a similar story. After losing to West Germany in the 1980 final, Belgium would not advance beyond the group stage again until 2016. In fact, from 1984 to 2012, Belgium did not even qualify for a single European Championship; the only one in which they participated was Euro 2000, which they co-hosted with the Netherlands.

Times have clearly changed; players such as Lukaku, De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, and Thibaut Courtois have turned Belgium into one of the world's football powerhouses over the past seven years or so. However, seemingly burdened by the weight of history, they have frequently faltered on the biggest stages when the lights have been at their brightest.

The most glaring example of this was their 2018 World Cup semifinal against France. This was a match which many considered to be the tournament's "true" final; the winner would almost certainly go on to beat Croatia in the final. With a potential World Cup title on the line, Belgium could not reach their peak level of play; with a 1-0 loss, they let perhaps their best chance to win a major international tournament slip through their fingers.

There is a possibility that redemption may come at Euro 2020. Belgium have been placed into a relatively simple group containing Denmark, Finland, and Russia. None of these teams should pose them much of a threat. Unfortunately for Belgium, there is a possibility that their first knockout-stage match could be a difficult one. Assuming they finish first in Group B, Belgium have a 1 in 4 chance of playing against the third-placed team of Group F in the round of 16.

Ordinarily, this would not be an issue, but this is not the case in this tournament. Group F is the "Group of Death" containing Portugal, France, and Germany. Not only are these teams all good enough to beat Belgium; they also happen to be the three most recent European teams to win a major international tournament. Given this fact, it is not unimaginable that Belgium might wilt under the pressure while these teams might not.

After the European Championships, Belgium will play against France in the UEFA Nations League semifinals in October. Victory against Les Bleus would then see Belgium face off against Italy or Spain in the final. With just two wins required, this could very well be Belgium's best chance at a title. But once again, the question remains: can Roberto Martínez's team keep their composure and overcome what seems to be a major mental block?

Not much information can necessarily be gleaned from Belgium's results in the World Cup qualifiers. As a top seed, they were placed in Pot 1 and thus handed a relatively easy draw. Wales, the Czech Republic, Belarus, and Estonia should all be dispatched without much difficulty. Once again, the real test will come at the tournament itself in Qatar. However, after coming up short in 2014, 2016, 2018, and potentially twice more in 2021 and with many of their core players near the end of their peak years at that point, there may at that point be more questions over the Belgium team than ever before.

It is for these reasons that perhaps no other contender is under the pressure to win next year's World Cup than Belgium. If they do not rise to the occasion, that could be their last chance gone.

The Weekly Take, Issue 150: Peaking at the Right Time?

In a match which will have major implications on the race for a top-four spot in Serie A and the Champions League berth that goes with it, Napoli beat Roma 2-0. Dries Mertens scored both goals within a seven-minute span in the first half. The victory saw Napoli close to within two points of Juventus and Atalanta who are third and fourth in the league respectively. Crucially, Napoli have a match in hand against Juve; victory in that would now see Gli Azzurri leapfrog Juve and move into third.

Napoli experienced mixed fortunes last season. Despite winning the Coppa Italia by beating Juve on penalties in the final, Napoli only managed to finish seventh in Serie A. This represented their worst league finish since 2009. The club's campaign was marked by instability throughout - a fact made clear with the December 2019 firing of legendary coach Carlo Ancelotti. Ancelotti was replaced by Gennaro Gattuso, whose results at the helm to date have been somewhat inconsistent.

That said, things are starting to look brighter at the Stadio San Paolo now. They have emerged from a slump during which they lost six out of 12 league matches, winning four of their last five. Much to their good fortune, Napoli's resurgence has coincided with inconsistent play from their direct competitors for a top-four spot, keeping them firmly in the frame for Champions League play next season.

Unlike Juve, Atalanta, Roma, or AC Milan, Napoli appear to be peaking just as the season enters its final stretch. Their massive outlay on player transfers last season is also beginning to pay off. The likes of Hirving Lozano, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Diego Demme, and Matteo Di Politano were not quite able to fully gel with the team in 2019-20, in part due to the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, now that they have spent more time at the club, they have all improved tremendously from last season and have made crucial contributions to Napoli's success thus far.

One key to Napoli's improvement this season has been their attack. Last season, Napoli only scored 61 league goals. This was their lowest tally since 2011; their goal difference was also its worst since 2010. Arkadiusz Milik was Napoli's only player to reach double figures in Serie A. This season, though, Napoli have turned it around up front. With 11 matches remaining, they have already scored 58 goals in the league. Long-serving striker Lorenzo Insigne leads the club with 13; he could potentially match his career-best 18 which he netted in the 2016-17 season.

After a turbulent half-season in charge, Gattuso has also seemed to become much more familiar with his personnel and been able to adjust his tactics accordingly. Last season, he tended to favour a 4-3-3 formation which featured Milik at centre-forward and Piotr Zieliński in central midfield. On the wing, José Callejón was usually preferred over Lozano.

However, it has all changed this season. Gattuso now primarily opts for a 4-2-3-1 set up. Zieliński now occupies the number 10 role while Callejón and Milik's off-season departures have allowed Lozano and Mertens to become regular starters. With this new setup, Napoli's attacking threat down the wings has greatly improved from that of last season. It has also made them much more proficient at creating long-range shot opportunities.

In any case, Napoli must not get ahead of themselves. As I mentioned, there's still that upcoming clash against Juve on April 7; it will go a long way towards answering the question of whether there will be Champions League football in Naples next season. Roma and Lazio are also nipping at Napoli's heels; a late slump on Napoli's part coupled with a surge by either of both of the Rome-based clubs could see Napoli once again fail to qualify for next season's Champions League.

Nevertheless, it could very well be that Napoli are peaking at exactly the right time. A first league title since 1990 is out of the question; Inter Milan are champions-to-be with a massive lead and a match in hand. Despite this, the way Napoli have been playing over the past few weeks, they have every chance to make the top four. Of course, doing so by beating bitter rivals Juve and potentially knocking the Turin club out of the top four in the process would be especially sweet.

The Weekly Take, Issue 149: End of an Era?

Cast your mind back to the past off-season, when it looked almost certain that Lionel Messi would depart Barcelona after 16 incredible years at Camp Nou. In the end, no transfer ended up being made, and the Argentinean legend remained at the club where he has spent his entire career to date.

I have brought this up because it is entirely possible that we may just have seen Messi play his very last Champions League match for the Blaugrana. In the second leg of Barça's Champions League round of 16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain, the Catalan club held PSG to a 1-1 draw. Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring for PSG from the penalty spot before Messi equalized seven minutes later. However, given the fact that Barça had to overcome a three-goal deficit, the final result was always inevitable from the beginning of the match.

The result meant that Barça were eliminated from the tournament, losing 5-2 on aggregate. It was the first time since 2007 that Barça failed to qualify for the quarterfinals of the Champions League. More importantly, though, it could very well prove to be the straw that breaks the camel's back for Messi.

To say that Barça's most recent off-season was a tumultuous one would be a severe understatement. It began with the expected firing of head coach Quique Setién; Ronald Koeman took over as his replacement. A mass exodus of key players soon followed. The most notable of these was the departure of Luis Suárez to Atlético Madrid on a free transfer. These departures were closely linked to the turmoil in Barça's front office which culminated in the resignation of club president Josep Bartomeu in October 2020. It was this same series of events which almost drove Messi out of Barça.

With Barça's exit from the Champions League, Messi's place at the club next season will surely be under even more scrutiny. While the writing is not quite on the wall yet, it soon will be if things remain as they are. Out of the Champions League and unlikely to win La Liga, Barça's only realistic hope for silverware this season is the Copa del Rey.

It has to be kept in mind that Messi is now 33; he does not have all that many years as an elite player remaining. Though he is still performing at a very high level, he has already shown clear signs of decline for the past one to two years. He knows he has to do whatever it takes to maximize his chances of landing a fifth Champions League title. More than ever before, it appears that his best chance to do so lies away from Catalonia.

Messi has been linked with Manchester City, PSG, and Inter Milan. All three options present their own advantages. At City, he would reunite with head coach Pep Guardiola, under whom he won two Champions League titles in 2009 and 2011 as part of arguably the greatest club team of all time. City have a wretched Champions League record; only once have they ever advanced to the tournament's semifinals. Messi's arrival would likely change that.

PSG is another interesting option because they have more financial might than any other club on the planet. Apart from being the most financially lucrative option, PSG would also provide the chance for Messi to make history. Like City, PSG have never won the Champions League. They reached the final for the first time last season, only to lose to Bayern Munich. At PSG, Messi would rejoin former Barça teammate Neymar as well as three teammates from his national team.

Inter are seen as the least likely option; however, it would make a lot of sense. This is a team which has a solid supporting cast as well as an excellent head coach in Antonio Conte. Just about the only thing Inter need to become a genuine Champions League contender is a legitimate superstar. Messi would be exactly that.

Lionel Messi's 17-year stint at Barcelona is unquestionably the greatest one-club run in the history of football. Never again will many of his achievements there be replicated by any other player at any other club. However, it looks as though these glorious years are drawing to a close. Where will his next stop be? Only time will tell.

The Weekly Take, Issue 148: Still Missing That X-Factor

The recent Manchester derby did not end the way many had expected. Premier League champions-to-be Manchester City lost 2-0 to Manchester United. Bruno Fernandes opened the scoring for United with (as is almost expected at this point) a penalty kick before Luke Shaw sealed the three points for the Red Devils with a second-half goal.

Now, it is true that this result will almost certainly have no bearing on the league title race. Even with the loss, City are still leading the league by 11 points over United with just 10 matches remaining. That being said, the fact that City were nowhere near their best in a match in which they had been expected to make a clear statement to not only the rest of England, but Europe as well, points to a larger problem. This problem is one which has been evident at City for years - it was there long before Pep Guardiola took over as head coach and has persisted to this day.

It cannot be doubted that the Citizens have been extremely consistent over the past decade. Four Premier League titles, two FA Cups, 10 consecutive top-four league finishes, and an average of 82 league points per season - results of which any club would be envious. However, when we take a closer look, some worrying trends become apparent.

During this same period, only once have City advanced beyond the quarterfinals of the Champions League. In addition, City's lowest moments have been particularly disappointing for a club of their stature, especially when considering how they came about. Lowlights include a group-stage Champions League exit in the 2011-12 season, a loss to Wigan Athletic in the 2013 FA Cup final, a dismal 2015-16 Premier League campaign in which they only garnered 66 points and barely made the top four, and a 2017 Champions League round of 16 elimination against Monaco.

The main point is this: there have been times during which City have looked like a well-oiled machine primed to dominate world football. However, when considering all the money invested by owner Sheikh Mansour, it must be concluded that this club has again and again proven to be a paper tiger when the stakes have been at their highest.

On paper, City have all the elements needed to take their place as a team which should be making deep Champions League runs every year while also easily finishing first or second in the league. However, the fact of the matter is that against the very best teams, City just don't have that "something extra" - that additional gear that sees them go from being merely an excellent team to one which plays in a completely different stratosphere.

That's not necessarily that big of a knock on City; I'd say that today, there are only four other teams capable of achieving such a level. These are Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Atlético Madrid, and (in spite of their struggles this season) Liverpool. However, if City are to win the Champions League for the first time in the club's history, they need to find a way to reach that level - if they can't do so, claiming the biggest prize in European club football will be almost impossible.

City have also begun to turn, if they haven't already, into a team which only performs as frontrunners. For all of Guardiola's brilliance as a coach, he has not been able to instill a mindset of resilience and grit within City's players. A prime example of this could be seen in their Champions League quarterfinal against Lyon last season. With the score at 1-1 and just 15 minutes remaining, City had to dig deep and tap into their unquestionable quality to finish off a Lyon side which had proven to be surprisingly difficult to put away. Instead, City capitulated, conceding two goals in an eight-minute span and thus crashing out of the tournament.

It isn't impossible to acquire this trait; after years of underachieving and choking, PSG, for example, seem to have begun to do so. However, the key difference between City and PSG is that in City's case, it appears to be systemic. PSG seem to have become a whole new team since giving the "keys" to Kylian Mbappé. City, on the other hand, have spent much of the last decade that the matches have to be played; they are neither won on paper nor with money.