Friday, May 29, 2020
The Weekly Take, Issue 108: The Outcome Was Never in Doubt
The latest edition of Der Klassiker ended in what has become a familiar outcome. Bayern Munich beat arch-rivals Borussia Dortmund 1-0. The only goal of the match was scored by Joshua Kimmich, whose spectacular chip left Dortmund goalkeeper Roman Bürki with absolutely no chance.
Bayern's victory took them seven points clear of their opponents at the top of the Bundesliga. At this point, it seems safe to say that the Bavarian powerhouse will win the Bundesliga title for the eighth consecutive season. Despite a slow start to their campaign which included the firing of Niko Kovač who was their head coach at the time, Bayern have once again emerged as the leading club in Germany.
Bayern's perpetual dominance also seems to have had a pronounced mental effect on their Bundesliga rivals. Throughout the recent match, it seemed as though Dortmund did not genuinely believe that they could take down the reigning league champions. They played with a level of fear and trepidation not seen in any of their other matches this season.
This match served as evidence of the mental stranglehold which Bayern hold over every other club in the league. It isn't just Dortmund - other leading teams such as Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Mönchengladbach, and RB Leipzig have faltered when presented with an opportunity to go toe-to-toe with and perhaps even take down the club which has become the bane of every of title challenger over the past eight seasons.
Of course, the most obvious place in which titles are won or lost is on the field of play itself. Only after the matches are played and the results produced can the overall outcome be determined. However, titles are also decided in the space between one's ears. This applies to players, coaches, GMs, and everyone associated with the football club. Herein lies perhaps Bayern's greatest advantage - they are now in the heads of every team which attempts to challenge their domestic supremacy.
Of course, it must also be noted that Bayern have far more money at their disposal than do any of their challengers. Thus, they have been able to select the pick of the talent in the international transfer market before any other Bundesliga club can do so. They have even plundered their direct rivals to claim their elite players. The most obvious example of this has to be Robert Lewandowski, who was signed by Bayern from Dortmund in 2013. The Pole has since gone on to become Bayern's greatest striker since the legendary Gerd Müller.
Another of Bayern's inherent advantages is one which none of their primary rivals will ever be able to overcome. This advantage lies in their location. Among all of the leading clubs in the Bundesliga, only Bayern are based in a large city. The rest are all small-market teams. This is also a factor because being in a large market would attract star players to the club. Even if a club like Dortmund, Gladbach, or Leipzig were to have the financial resources which Bayern have now, they would nevertheless be unlikely to attract superstars to the club. This is because in spite of the large salaries and high level of play they would experience there, most such players would not be keen on living in such a location. If, for example, Eintracht Frankfurt or Hertha Berlin were to become extremely rich, it may be different. However, it won't happen with any of Bayern's current closest rivals.
Bayern's slow start to the season fooled many into believing that their streak of dominance would come to an end this season. Admittedly, I was among those who also doubted Die Roten. Their play under Kovač was nowhere near their usual standard; thus, it seemed as if this would be the year that Bayern's reign would finally end.
However, as the season progressed, went on hiatus, and resumed, the gulf between Bayern and the rest of the title contenders became increasingly evident with every matchday.
It will take a truly spectacular season-long performance for any team to dethrone Bayern over the next few seasons. However, based on recent history, this seems very much unlikely. It pains me as a Dortmund fan to say this, but for the foreseeable future, no club in Germany is likely to put an end to Bayern's run of league titles.
Bayern's victory took them seven points clear of their opponents at the top of the Bundesliga. At this point, it seems safe to say that the Bavarian powerhouse will win the Bundesliga title for the eighth consecutive season. Despite a slow start to their campaign which included the firing of Niko Kovač who was their head coach at the time, Bayern have once again emerged as the leading club in Germany.
Bayern's perpetual dominance also seems to have had a pronounced mental effect on their Bundesliga rivals. Throughout the recent match, it seemed as though Dortmund did not genuinely believe that they could take down the reigning league champions. They played with a level of fear and trepidation not seen in any of their other matches this season.
This match served as evidence of the mental stranglehold which Bayern hold over every other club in the league. It isn't just Dortmund - other leading teams such as Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Mönchengladbach, and RB Leipzig have faltered when presented with an opportunity to go toe-to-toe with and perhaps even take down the club which has become the bane of every of title challenger over the past eight seasons.
Of course, the most obvious place in which titles are won or lost is on the field of play itself. Only after the matches are played and the results produced can the overall outcome be determined. However, titles are also decided in the space between one's ears. This applies to players, coaches, GMs, and everyone associated with the football club. Herein lies perhaps Bayern's greatest advantage - they are now in the heads of every team which attempts to challenge their domestic supremacy.
Of course, it must also be noted that Bayern have far more money at their disposal than do any of their challengers. Thus, they have been able to select the pick of the talent in the international transfer market before any other Bundesliga club can do so. They have even plundered their direct rivals to claim their elite players. The most obvious example of this has to be Robert Lewandowski, who was signed by Bayern from Dortmund in 2013. The Pole has since gone on to become Bayern's greatest striker since the legendary Gerd Müller.
Another of Bayern's inherent advantages is one which none of their primary rivals will ever be able to overcome. This advantage lies in their location. Among all of the leading clubs in the Bundesliga, only Bayern are based in a large city. The rest are all small-market teams. This is also a factor because being in a large market would attract star players to the club. Even if a club like Dortmund, Gladbach, or Leipzig were to have the financial resources which Bayern have now, they would nevertheless be unlikely to attract superstars to the club. This is because in spite of the large salaries and high level of play they would experience there, most such players would not be keen on living in such a location. If, for example, Eintracht Frankfurt or Hertha Berlin were to become extremely rich, it may be different. However, it won't happen with any of Bayern's current closest rivals.
Bayern's slow start to the season fooled many into believing that their streak of dominance would come to an end this season. Admittedly, I was among those who also doubted Die Roten. Their play under Kovač was nowhere near their usual standard; thus, it seemed as if this would be the year that Bayern's reign would finally end.
However, as the season progressed, went on hiatus, and resumed, the gulf between Bayern and the rest of the title contenders became increasingly evident with every matchday.
It will take a truly spectacular season-long performance for any team to dethrone Bayern over the next few seasons. However, based on recent history, this seems very much unlikely. It pains me as a Dortmund fan to say this, but for the foreseeable future, no club in Germany is likely to put an end to Bayern's run of league titles.
Sunday, May 24, 2020
The Weekly Take, Issue 107: And Then There Were Three
Prior to the most recent Bundesliga matchday, there had been four teams in contention for the league title: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and Borussia Mönchengladbach. However, that number has now been reduced to three.
Gladbach's 3-1 loss against Bayer Leverkusen almost certainly erased their slim chance of winning the league title for the first time since 1977. Two goals scored by Kai Havertz as well as another by Sven Bender left Die Fohlen nine points behind league leaders Bayern with just seven matchdays remaining. To make matters even worse for Gladbach, this loss caused them to slip behind Leverkusen in the league table; they now face a challenge to qualify for next season's Champions League.
It wasn't that long ago when Gladbach were in first place in the league and in position to potentially have a historic season by clinching the league title. However, this will no longer be the case.
So just how has it all fallen apart?
One likely explanation is that of regression to the mean.
Over any given sample size, there is always bound to be an element of randomness involved. However, the larger the sample size, the less the effect of the randomness. Thus, the later into the season it is, the truer the image of a team's true level of play. This may very well have been the case with Gladbach. It could simply have been that they got off to an unusually hot start and are only experiencing the effects of regression to the mean now.
Gladbach's lack of title experience might also have contributed to their recent loss of form. It must be kept on mind that the club from the Rhine region has not even been involved in a Bundesliga title race since 1986, when they finished seven points behind eventual champions Bayern. Although they have since finished third in the league twice, both were distant third-place finishes. With not only the odds but also the club's history working against them, it is little wonder that the pressure of the title race eventually caught up to them. That said, the experience which they have gained this season will be good for them going forward.
Gladbach's title bid was also harmed by their lack of a superstar. They do have many solid players such as Alassane Pléa, Marcus Thuram, Yann Sommer, Stefan Lainer, and Matthias Ginter. However, they lack that one star who can put the team on his back and drag the team to victory when they need it. It is possible that Thuram will reach that level someday; however, as he is still very young, that day is probably a long way off. Unfortunately, Gladbach have neither the money, prestige, or glamour required to attract such a star. Thus, the reality is that they will have to make do with the resources at their disposal.
I mentioned that I believe Thuram has the highest ceiling of all of Gladbach's players who are yet to peak. Thus, it is imperative that Gladbach make the top four and qualify for the Champions League. If they do not, there is a very real possibility that this season could be the Frenchman's last in northwestern Germany. At just 22, he has his prime years ahead of him and has already been linked with clubs such as Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund. A player of Thuram's calibre will certainly want to play in Europe's leading club competition - something which Gladbach might not be able to provide.
Head coach Marco Rose might soon be on his way out of Borussia-Park as well. Rose has established himself as one of the Bundesliga's best coaches and one who is clearly capable of taking the reins at a bigger club. A lack of Champions League football next season could cause him to leave in order to further burnish his credentials at the highest level, whether with another Bundesliga club or elsewhere.
For Borussia Mönchengladbach, a season which began with so much promise might very well end in disappointment. If they are to remain competitive next season, qualification for the Champions League is a must. For to do so might spell the beginning of the end of Gladbach's time as a leading club in Germany.
Gladbach's 3-1 loss against Bayer Leverkusen almost certainly erased their slim chance of winning the league title for the first time since 1977. Two goals scored by Kai Havertz as well as another by Sven Bender left Die Fohlen nine points behind league leaders Bayern with just seven matchdays remaining. To make matters even worse for Gladbach, this loss caused them to slip behind Leverkusen in the league table; they now face a challenge to qualify for next season's Champions League.
It wasn't that long ago when Gladbach were in first place in the league and in position to potentially have a historic season by clinching the league title. However, this will no longer be the case.
So just how has it all fallen apart?
One likely explanation is that of regression to the mean.
Over any given sample size, there is always bound to be an element of randomness involved. However, the larger the sample size, the less the effect of the randomness. Thus, the later into the season it is, the truer the image of a team's true level of play. This may very well have been the case with Gladbach. It could simply have been that they got off to an unusually hot start and are only experiencing the effects of regression to the mean now.
Gladbach's lack of title experience might also have contributed to their recent loss of form. It must be kept on mind that the club from the Rhine region has not even been involved in a Bundesliga title race since 1986, when they finished seven points behind eventual champions Bayern. Although they have since finished third in the league twice, both were distant third-place finishes. With not only the odds but also the club's history working against them, it is little wonder that the pressure of the title race eventually caught up to them. That said, the experience which they have gained this season will be good for them going forward.
Gladbach's title bid was also harmed by their lack of a superstar. They do have many solid players such as Alassane Pléa, Marcus Thuram, Yann Sommer, Stefan Lainer, and Matthias Ginter. However, they lack that one star who can put the team on his back and drag the team to victory when they need it. It is possible that Thuram will reach that level someday; however, as he is still very young, that day is probably a long way off. Unfortunately, Gladbach have neither the money, prestige, or glamour required to attract such a star. Thus, the reality is that they will have to make do with the resources at their disposal.
I mentioned that I believe Thuram has the highest ceiling of all of Gladbach's players who are yet to peak. Thus, it is imperative that Gladbach make the top four and qualify for the Champions League. If they do not, there is a very real possibility that this season could be the Frenchman's last in northwestern Germany. At just 22, he has his prime years ahead of him and has already been linked with clubs such as Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund. A player of Thuram's calibre will certainly want to play in Europe's leading club competition - something which Gladbach might not be able to provide.
Head coach Marco Rose might soon be on his way out of Borussia-Park as well. Rose has established himself as one of the Bundesliga's best coaches and one who is clearly capable of taking the reins at a bigger club. A lack of Champions League football next season could cause him to leave in order to further burnish his credentials at the highest level, whether with another Bundesliga club or elsewhere.
For Borussia Mönchengladbach, a season which began with so much promise might very well end in disappointment. If they are to remain competitive next season, qualification for the Champions League is a must. For to do so might spell the beginning of the end of Gladbach's time as a leading club in Germany.
Sunday, May 17, 2020
The Weekly Take, Issue 106: Like Father, Like Son? Not At All
Before I begin, I'd just like to say that I'm very glad to be back. The resumption of the Bundesliga has meant that I once again have material to write about. I hope you're all fine and safe - this hasn't been easy for anyone, but it'll get better someday.
Now, on to the post itself.
The standout match upon the Bundesliga's resumption this past matchday was the Revierderby. Arch-rivals Borussia Dortmund and Schalke faced off in front of an eerily empty Signal Iduna Park. In the end, it wasn't even close - Dortmund were completely dominant as they swept Schalke aside in a 4-0 victory.
The first goal of the match was scored by Dortmund's budding superstar Erling Håland. It was his 10th league goal in just nine games for the Rhine club. Alongside the likes of Thorgan Hazard, Julian Brandt, and Raphaël Guerreiro, the Norwegian torched the Schalke defense and continued the run of form which has deservedly seen him become one of the most hyped youngsters in world football.
Some might say that it's in his blood. Håland's father Alf-Inge did have a 14-year career as a professional footballer. Håland senior spent nine seasons in the Premier League and finished third twice; once with Nottingham Forest in 1995 and once with Leeds United in 2000. He also earned 34 caps for Norway. However, he was never even close to the level at which his son is already playing.
Erling Håland possesses a rare blend of athleticism and skill which has enabled him to dominate opposing defenses. He will often use his remarkable speed and strength to blow by opposing defenders with ease to set up goalscoring opportunities. He has also shown an ability to read defenses like a seasoned veteran. His positional awareness and skill at drawing defenders out of position opens up the rest of the field for himself and his teammates.
Even at this early stage of his career, there are already signs that Håland is well on his way to becoming an all-time great. Håland is already one of just five players to have scored in five consecutive Champions League matches. This puts him in elite company; the only other players to have ever done so are Alessandro del Piero, Serhiy Rebrov, Neymar, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Robert Lewandowski. What makes this even more impressive is that he did this at the age of 19 while playing for the unfancied Red Bull Salzburg. As if that weren't enough, some of these matches were against Liverpool and Napoli. Before the Champions League went on hiatus, he had already scored 10 goals this season. Bear in mind that the Champions League's round of 16 has not even been concluded. That puts into perspective just how great Håland has been thus far this season.
The signing of Håland from Salzburg for just €20 million has proven to be an absolute masterstroke on the part of Dortmund's front office. If he were to be transferred again today, he would easily fetch a value of at least €75 million and might even perhaps break the €100 million barrier. Håland made an immediate impact upon his arrival by scoring a hattrick in his first game for Dortmund; he has only continued to go from strength to strength since. If Die Schwarzgelbe go on to win the Bundesliga title this season, it will undoubtedly be largely thanks to their acquisition of their phenom in the #17 jersey.
While Håland's exploits at club level are already notable, it is at international level where he could truly burnish his credentials. The history of Norway's national team is a rather barren one. The Løvene have only been to three World Cups in their history and have not done so since 1998. While Norway will almost certainly not win the World Cup during Håland's career, Håland can cement himself as the greatest player to ever come out of Norway by leading them to several deep World Cup runs over the course of what should be a long and illustrious career.
Ever since the departure of Robert Lewandowski to rivals Bayern Munich in 2013, Dortmund fans have been longing for a player of such calibre to don the yellow and black. While Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang did come close during his stint in northwestern Germany, he never quite reached that same level. However, it seems as though the wait will soon be over - the potential of Erling Håland is through the roof. While it's much too early to say that he is already a legend in the making, early returns are promising.
Now, on to the post itself.
The standout match upon the Bundesliga's resumption this past matchday was the Revierderby. Arch-rivals Borussia Dortmund and Schalke faced off in front of an eerily empty Signal Iduna Park. In the end, it wasn't even close - Dortmund were completely dominant as they swept Schalke aside in a 4-0 victory.
The first goal of the match was scored by Dortmund's budding superstar Erling Håland. It was his 10th league goal in just nine games for the Rhine club. Alongside the likes of Thorgan Hazard, Julian Brandt, and Raphaël Guerreiro, the Norwegian torched the Schalke defense and continued the run of form which has deservedly seen him become one of the most hyped youngsters in world football.
Some might say that it's in his blood. Håland's father Alf-Inge did have a 14-year career as a professional footballer. Håland senior spent nine seasons in the Premier League and finished third twice; once with Nottingham Forest in 1995 and once with Leeds United in 2000. He also earned 34 caps for Norway. However, he was never even close to the level at which his son is already playing.
Erling Håland possesses a rare blend of athleticism and skill which has enabled him to dominate opposing defenses. He will often use his remarkable speed and strength to blow by opposing defenders with ease to set up goalscoring opportunities. He has also shown an ability to read defenses like a seasoned veteran. His positional awareness and skill at drawing defenders out of position opens up the rest of the field for himself and his teammates.
Even at this early stage of his career, there are already signs that Håland is well on his way to becoming an all-time great. Håland is already one of just five players to have scored in five consecutive Champions League matches. This puts him in elite company; the only other players to have ever done so are Alessandro del Piero, Serhiy Rebrov, Neymar, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Robert Lewandowski. What makes this even more impressive is that he did this at the age of 19 while playing for the unfancied Red Bull Salzburg. As if that weren't enough, some of these matches were against Liverpool and Napoli. Before the Champions League went on hiatus, he had already scored 10 goals this season. Bear in mind that the Champions League's round of 16 has not even been concluded. That puts into perspective just how great Håland has been thus far this season.
The signing of Håland from Salzburg for just €20 million has proven to be an absolute masterstroke on the part of Dortmund's front office. If he were to be transferred again today, he would easily fetch a value of at least €75 million and might even perhaps break the €100 million barrier. Håland made an immediate impact upon his arrival by scoring a hattrick in his first game for Dortmund; he has only continued to go from strength to strength since. If Die Schwarzgelbe go on to win the Bundesliga title this season, it will undoubtedly be largely thanks to their acquisition of their phenom in the #17 jersey.
While Håland's exploits at club level are already notable, it is at international level where he could truly burnish his credentials. The history of Norway's national team is a rather barren one. The Løvene have only been to three World Cups in their history and have not done so since 1998. While Norway will almost certainly not win the World Cup during Håland's career, Håland can cement himself as the greatest player to ever come out of Norway by leading them to several deep World Cup runs over the course of what should be a long and illustrious career.
Ever since the departure of Robert Lewandowski to rivals Bayern Munich in 2013, Dortmund fans have been longing for a player of such calibre to don the yellow and black. While Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang did come close during his stint in northwestern Germany, he never quite reached that same level. However, it seems as though the wait will soon be over - the potential of Erling Håland is through the roof. While it's much too early to say that he is already a legend in the making, early returns are promising.
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