The Weekly Take, Issue 60: The Emptiest of League Title Victories

It is not often the case that when a team wins a league title in one of the major football leagues, the victory ends up being hollow and largely devoid of meaning.

Yet, that is exactly what has happened to Juventus this season.

In their latest Serie A match, the Bianconeri, who have already clinched the league title, only managed a 1-1 draw against Inter Milan in the season’s last Derby d’Italia.

As is often the case with teams which no longer have any meaningful matches to play, Juve seemed to play with little spirit and desire and were outplayed by the Nerazzurri for most of the match. Only the 600th club goal of Cristiano Ronaldo’s legendary career prevented a Juve loss.

When Juve look back at how their season unfolded, they will surely regard it as a failure despite winning Serie A.

At the beginning of the season, Juve were among the teams with a genuine chance of winning a Treble. However, this would not even come close to materializing.

In January, Juve suffered a stunning 3-0 upset loss against Atalanta in the Coppa Italia quarterfinals. This loss to the underdogs from Bergamo meant that the Turin-based juggernaut would fail to win the cup for the first time since 2014. Coincidentally, Juve were also knocked out in the quarterfinals that year.

Juve’s Champions League exit this season was arguably an even bigger shock.

Having drawn the first leg of their quarterfinal tie against Ajax 1-1, Juve headed back to Italy in command of the tie. Although they did not win their first-leg match, they were already the heavy favourites to advance to the semifinals. The fact that they had been able to bag an away goal in Amsterdam further bolstered their position.

However, in an astonishing turn of events, the Dutch club scored a 2-1 victory in the second leg to knock Juventus out of the tournament.

When the season commenced, it was obvious that Juve were eyeing the Champions League more than any other title. This was understandable, as they had not won the tournament since 1996; the years since then had been littered with near-misses including four losses in the final. With this fact in mind, Juve spent heavily during the off-season. Players such as Emre Can, Douglas Costa, Leonardo Bonucci, and of course, Ronaldo were brought in. Juve spent the eye-popping total of €239.9 million, of which €100 million was expended to bring in Ronaldo, on player signings – a figure that most clubs could only dream of and a clear signal that they were hell-bent on bringing the continental title to Turin for the first time in 23 years. Unfortunately for Juve, even this massive outlay for Juve would prove insufficient.

What makes this even more galling for Juve is that this may have been their best chance to win it all for quite some time. Had they advanced to the semifinals, they would have been favoured to beat Tottenham. In the final, they would have played against either Barcelona or Liverpool. These are both teams against which Juve would have had a genuine chance of winning.

It is interesting to note the massive margin by which Juve won the Serie A title. With just four matchdays remaining, Juve have an insurmountable 18-point lead over second-placed Napoli. Yet, this may be part of the cause of their failings in Europe this season.

The fact that Juve have been unchallenged in the league all season long has allowed them to coast for large portions of the season. This has led to their relative lack of sharpness in the Champions League, while teams who have faced stern fights in their own domestic league, such as Tottenham and Liverpool, have been able to parlay this continued high-level, high-effort play into European competition and make deep Champions League runs.

So, as strange as it may sound, if Juve are to win next season’s Champions League, they may need Napoli, Inter Milan, and AC Milan to step up.

Juve’s feat of winning eight consecutive Serie A titles, as well as their large margin of victory this season, does deserve due credit.

However, a season that yields a league title, a Coppa Italia quarterfinal, and a Champions League quarterfinal does not even approach what Juventus would consider a successful one.

The Weekly Take, Issue 59: What Did It Cost City? Maybe Everything

This season’s Premier League title race will likely come down to the wire.

During the most recent matchday, Manchester City took a significant step forward in the chase for the title. The Citizens beat Tottenham 1-0, with Phil Foden scoring City’s winning goal. It was also City’s second victory over Spurs in less than a week. City beat Spurs 4-3 in the second leg of a Champions League quarterfinal thriller, though that victory was in vain as City were knocked out on away goals.

This latest victory put City just two points behind league leaders Liverpool; however, in City’s favour is the fact that they have four matches remaining while Liverpool have three.

However, City’s victory might have come at a tremendous cost; it could even potentially end up ruining their league title bid.

In the 38th minute, City’s star midfielder Kevin De Bruyne was forced off due to a hamstring injury. He was replaced by Fernandinho.

While it is never a good time for a team to lose their best player through injury, this could not have come at a worse time for City.

City’s next Premier League match will be a derby against bitter rivals Manchester United. What makes this particular Manchester derby even more dangerous for City is the fact that United are coming off a crushing 4-0 loss to Everton. Thus, the Red Devils will be desperate for redemption and especially eager to prove themselves in what is already one of world football’s fiercest rivalry matches.

With City set to be short of their Belgian ace, this derby represents an excellent opportunity for United to boost their bid for a spot in next season’s Champions League. However, the match will have even greater significance than that alone.

Adding to the intrigue surrounding the upcoming derby is the fact that it could decide who wins the Premier League this season.

Liverpool’s final three league matches will be against Huddersfield Town, Newcastle United, and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Meanwhile, after the Manchester derby, City will close out their league campaign against Burnley, Leicester City, and Brighton & Hove Albion.

Both the Reds and Citizens will be expected to finish their respective league seasons with three wins. Thus, should everything else go as expected and neither side choke during the final stretch of matches, the Manchester derby will end up becoming the title decider. A United win or a draw will see Liverpool win the league; for City, only a victory for them will suffice.

The importance of De Bruyne to this City team cannot be overstated.

De Bruyne is arguably the best passer in world football today. Prior to this season, De Bruyne had recorded 64 assists in 133 league matches over the preceding four seasons. In doing so, he led his league in assists three times: once in the Bundesliga with Wolfsburg in 2015 and twice in the Premier League with City in 2017 and 2018.

His passing genius formed the foundation for City’s formidable offense as they won last season’s Premier League title by a massive 19-point margin. One could also easily argue that De Bruyne was robbed of Premier League Player of the Season title; it was Liverpool striker Mo Salah who claimed that accolade.

But it’s not just about the passing when it comes to De Bruyne’s overall game.

Very few players today are able to survey the match situation, then make the correct play as consistently as De Bruyne does. His play might not be as flashy as that of the likes of Luka Modrić, Ángel Di María, or his compatriot Eden Hazard, but it is no less effective.

De Bruyne’s current season has been ravaged by injury. He has played in just 14 of City’s 34 league matches thus far this season. Given De Bruyne’s track record regarding injuries, this is an unpleasant surprise; this figure represents the most matches he has ever missed in a season by a long way. It also looks as though this latest injury could be the most critical of all.

Although Manchester City’s win over Tottenham meant that they maintained control of the league title race, the injury sustained by Kevin De Bruyne in that victory might have caused City to lose the war despite winning the battle.

The Weekly Take, Issue 58: Is Another Miracle About to Happen?

As the first leg of this season’s Champions League quarterfinal ties commenced, one could be forgiven for overlooking the Ajax-Juventus match, as it was one expected to be very one-sided in Juventus’ favour. This was despite the fact that Ajax had just recorded an astonishing victory over Real Madrid to send Los Merengues packing in the round of 16.

However, the Amsterdam club once again defied the odds, holding the Bianconeri to a 1-1 draw, with David Neres equalizing after Cristiano Ronaldo had opened the scoring for Juve. Even more impressive was the fact that statistically speaking, Ajax outplayed Juve for large portions of the game. They had more shots on target, corners, possession, and completed passes. Ajax’s passing accuracy was also 10 percentage points higher than Juve’s.

It was a steady, assured performance from Ajax, with players such as Hakim Ziyech, Frenkie de Jong, Neres, and Daley Blind causing major problems for their favoured opponents.

Even though Ajax only began appearing on most people’s radars after their stunning win over Real, this team is actually much better than these people assume. Their core of de Jong, Ziyech, Matthijs de Ligt, Lasse Schöne, Dušan Tadić, and Nicolás Tagliafico is good enough to worry any top team in Europe. Despite their lack of a bona fide superstar, Ajax clearly have a formidable starting 11 and a generally deep roster.

Like many underdog teams that have found success, Ajax have often had to resort to unconventional tactics when playing against more fancied opponents, and these tactics seem to have worked very well indeed. Against Juve, attacking midfielder Tadić started at centre-forward, something he seldom does in Eredivisie matches against weaker teams, but usually does in Champions League matches, especially when Ajax is the underdog. Just as he did in the round of 16 match against Real, the Serbian thrived in the “false nine” role, picking up where he left off and having another excellent game against the Turin club’s much-vaunted defense. Ajax also typically field a 4-3-3 formation in domestic league play but adjust to tough Champions League opponents by fielding a 4-2-3-1 formation. This tactical switch has obviously paid off up to this point.

In this regard, Ajax head coach Erik ten Hag deserves a tremendous amount of credit. When he took over in December 2017, Ajax were a team in disarray. They had failed to qualify for the Europa League, had been knocked out of the KNVB Cup, and were on their way to once again failing to win the Eredivisie title; PSV would go on to take it by four points. However, had ten Hag not taken over from Marcel Keizer when he did, it could easily have been so much worse. Ten Hag’s appointment put new life into the team, as unlike Keizer, he was able to get the best out of what many would consider to be a team which was relatively financially constrained. This momentum carried over into the current season, reaching its high point with the victory over Real.

Ajax has always prioritized the development of its young players. This mentality has undoubtedly been facilitated by its iconic youth academy. In their current squad, de Ligt, de Jong, Neres, Donny van den Beek, and André Onana are all regular starters who are 23 years old or younger; all five are products of Ajax’s youth academy and played for Ajax’s youth team Jong Ajax. This young core has formed a formidable, home-grown nucleus throughout this season.

Considering what European club football today has become, this season could represent Ajax’s best chance to reach the Champions League semifinals for the first time since 1997 when coincidentally, they were knocked out by Juve. De Jong is already Barcelona-bound, and after Ajax’s impressive run this season, there will surely be no shortage of elite clubs chasing their other key players in the coming off-season.

With this in mind, Ajax really have nothing to lose as they enter the second leg in Turin. They have already surpassed expectations by reaching the quarterfinals and are once again expected to lose, so the pressure is off.

Having said that, if Ajax were to record another upset victory, it would write another chapter to what has become a breakout season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 57: Living Rent-Free in Their Heads

As I write this post, I as a Borussia Dortmund fan have a sense of déjà vu in the worst way possible.

In one of last season’s matchups between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, Bayern took Dortmund apart, winning a dominant 6-0 victory in Der Klassiker.

Around a year later, the two rivals met again, but this time the stakes were even higher. Dortmund and Bayern were ranked first and second in the Bundesliga heading into the match. The winner would be likely to claim this season’s league title.

What was expected to have been one of the most pulsating, hotly-contested matches of the season, however, ended up becoming an extremely one-sided affair - once again in Bayern’s favour. The Bavarians destroyed the Ruhr team, winning 5-0.

It was never even close. Bayern were in full control right from the opening whistle, and the scoreline could easily have been even more one-sided than it was. What made it even worse for Die Schwarzgelben was the fact that former Dortmund star Robert Lewandowski scored two of Bayern’s five goals. Lewandowski’s first goal was also the 200th Bundesliga goal of his legendary career.

This match also made one thing extremely clear: Dortmund have a tremendous mental block when playing against Bayern. Since the beginning of the 2013-14 season, Bayern and Dortmund have played against each other 20 times. Over these 20 clashes, Bayern have won 12 and scored 42 goals; Dortmund, just five with 20 goals scored.

Dortmund have developed a reputation for being mentally weak, especially following the departure of former head coach Jürgen Klopp. They have lost three DFB-Pokal finals, are on pace to have their sixth top-four league finish in seven years during which they have not won the title, and have been knocked out of the Champions League by teams which they should have beaten, such as Monaco and Tottenham. They even lost a Europa League tie against Red Bull Salzburg in 2018.

This team is nowhere near the level of the Klopp-coached team that took European football by storm in the early 2010s.

In 2011, Dortmund won the Bundesliga title for the first time in nine years. The next year, Dortmund won a league and cup Double. That team contained players such as Lewandowski, team captain Sebastian Kehl, Neven Subotić, Shinji Kagawa, Kuba Błaszczykowski, Mats Hummels, and İlkay Gündoğan. This was a team loaded with talent, cohesion, fearlessness, leadership, and mental toughness. Supplemented by Klopp’s outstanding coaching and tactical genius, Dortmund went on a tear, winning game after game in unconventional yet effective ways and putting the world of football on notice. They not only won two Bundesliga titles and a DFB-Pokal, but also many new fans (myself included) in the process.

Fast-forward to the present and one will see that Dortmund’s best players include Axel Witsel, Jadon Sancho, Paco Alcácer, Achraf Hakimi, and the departing Christian Pulisic. Apart from the fact that their general skill level is lower than that of the 2010-12 team, the current team also seems to play with a level of fear and inhibition that the team from back then never did. This is especially true when they play against Bayern.

This team completely lacks a winning mentality against Bayern. In this week’s match, Dortmund were clearly ill-suited for the occasion. Even their best players played well below their usual standards. It makes one wonder if they actually believe they can win the league title.

Last week, I wrote about Tottenham’s mental fragility. Much of what I said about Spurs also applies to Dortmund. However, unlike Tottenham, Dortmund do have a history of success, making their recent inability to close the deal all the more galling.

This team needs two things. One is a clear team identity. Although Dortmund have some excellent players on the team, their lack of an overarching identity hinders their level of play. The second is better coaching. Although Lucien Favre is certainly a good coach, I don’t believe he is one who can restore Dortmund to its former glory.

However, until both of these are fulfilled, Borussia Dortmund are likely to experience even more near-misses, especially against the team who have tormented them for most of the last half-decade.

The Weekly Take, Issue 56: Will This Team’s Culture Ever Change?

Those of you who read my posts regularly may remember that I recently wrote a post about Bayern Munich. In it, I lauded Bayern for instilling a culture and mentality of success and victory throughout the team.

However, this time I’m going to take the opposite approach. I am about to discuss a team that perpetually comes up short in the big moments. A team that somehow always manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. A team that has more than deserved its reputation for choking and being mentally weak.

This team is Tottenham Hotspur.

During the previous Premier League matchday, Tottenham crashed to a 2-1 loss to league leaders Liverpool. In typical Spurs fashion, the goal that sealed their fate was an own goal scored by Toby Alderweireld.

Tottenham have always been known as a team which has never quite been capable of taking that final step. Since 1984, Tottenham have only won the following titles: the 1991 FA Cup, the 1999 League Cup, and the 2008 League Cup. They have not even won the Premier League once and have not even come close to any success in the Europa League, let alone the Champions League. This is an extremely poor return for a club of Tottenham’s stature.

There are several factors that have caused this general lack of success, but there is one which stands out above all others: as a club, Tottenham seem to expect failure more than they do success. This sense of pessimism that permeates the club clearly affects the players year after year.

The chief example of this is Tottenham’s 2015-16 Premier League campaign.

With the usual powerhouses such as Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, and Liverpool all mired in slumps or undergoing transitional periods, Tottenham were well-placed to possibly win their first league title in 54 years. For much of the season, they were neck-and-neck with Leicester City, who were themselves targeting a first-ever league title.

Tottenham not only lost the title race, but also slumped so badly during the closing stretch of the season that their North London rivals Arsenal came from behind, overtook them, and finished second behind Leicester.

It is also worth noting that every time a star player leaves Tottenham, the player seems to be free of the mental shackles at the club and takes his game to the next level.

Players such as Dimitar Berbatov, Gareth Bale, and Luka Modrić did just that, with Modrić eventually turning into one of the greatest attacking midfielders of all time. It is unlikely that he would have done so if he had remained at White Hart Lane.

If Harry Kane were to follow such a path and leave Tottenham, no one associated with the club should have any complaints. It is a distinct possibility that the centre-forward’s career progression is being stunted at Spurs.

This culture of failure comes from the top down – the club’s owner and administrative members are guilty as well.

This season, Tottenham have not signed even one player. This clearly shows that those in charge do not expect success any time soon; hence, there is no reason to add to the squad.

As much as he has been lauded by the media, head coach Mauricio Pochettino must also shoulder some of the blame.

The Argentine, while in my opinion is slightly overrated as a coach, has nevertheless shown the ability to make an average team good. However, he clearly lacks the ability to make a good team great. This team has obviously plateaued under Pochettino – over the last four years, the team as a whole has made virtually no progress. If this trend continues, do not be surprised to see Pochettino out of Tottenham before too long.

Tottenham are now in a four-way battle with Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea for the last two Champions League spots for next season. If this season and Tottenham’s history are anything to go by, they might very well miss out on the Champions League for the first time in four years.

This is a team clearly burdened by the failures of the past. Until the general team culture at Tottenham is overhauled, it is likely to remain this way for years to come.