The Weekly Take Issue 338: Not the Title Defense They'd Hoped For

Real Madrid had already gotten off to a slow start to their Champions League campaign even before their match against Premier League leaders Liverpool. Los Merengues’ title defense had not been going well following prior losses to Lille and AC Milan. For that reason, when Real headed to Anfield to face off against the Reds, it was perhaps their most important match thus far this season - and against a serious contender for the Champions League title, no less.

As things turned out, Real never even stood a chance. The final scoreline of 2-0 to Liverpool was somewhat flattering to Real - it could’ve, and likely should’ve, been larger. Despite dominating the match more or less right from opening kick-off, Liverpool didn’t open the scoring until early in the second half. Alexis Mac Allister played a one-two with Conor Bradley before advancing into Real’s penalty area, then firing a shot into the bottom corner of the net.

Following this, both teams traded penalty misses. Real first had a chance to equalize from the spot after Andy Robertson fouled Lucas Vázquez in the penalty area; however, Kylian Mbappé squandered Real’s opportunity, having his penalty saved by Liverpool goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher. Nine minutes later, Ferland Mendy conceded a penalty after his own foul on Liverpool winger Mohamed Salah, only for Salah to blow the ensuing spot-kick; his attempt wasn’t even close.

Liverpool continued to outplay their Spanish opponents in every facet of the game and to the surprise of absolutely nobody, scored their second goal in the 76th minute when Cody Gakpo found the net with a header off a cross sent in by Robertson.

Real’s loss - their third in five Champions League matches this season - leaves them in 24th place at the end of the fifth of eight league phase matchdays. In a scenario which would have seemed inconceivable when the season started, Real are in serious danger of failing to even qualify for the play-ins for a spot in the round of 16.

Real haven’t even been close to the force they were just last season when they won their second Champions League title in three seasons and also reclaimed their La Liga title after finishing ahead of arch-rivals Barcelona by 10 points. This season, however, it’s not just about Real’s struggles in continental play - domestically, while not far behind Barça right now, the obvious lowlight of Real’s 2024-25 La Liga campaign to date has to have been their crushing 4-0 home defeat against Barça. Of course, this leads to the question - just what’s going wrong at the Santiago Bernabéu?

A sizable amount of the blame has to be placed on Mbappé. The Frenchman arrived in the Spanish capital over the off-season following the expiry of his contract at PSG, having decided against activating its extension clause. Despite all the fanfare which his arrival at Real brought, Mbappé’s form has been inconsistent since the beginning of the season - a far cry from the level which had previously seen him establish himself as a perennial Ballon d’Or contender.

Real’s injury crisis can’t be overstated either. Among the players currently sidelined are Rodrygo, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and most notably of all, Vinícius Júnior. Would it have been the case that at least one of them would have made the difference against Liverpool? Not necessarily - but when the team sustains such major losses, it means that the entire setup has to be adjusted; against Liverpool, it was obvious that this wasn't what Real was comfortable with.

Speaking of Vinícius, the off-field drama surrounding him and thus Real has undoubtedly been an unwelcome distraction. After finding out in advance that the Brazilian winger would not win the Ballon d’Or, Real opted to boycott the ceremony in Paris - a decision that understandably invited sharp criticism from the football world in general. Real’s detractors have long derided them as the “golden child” of the powers that be; the fact that their refusal to attend the ceremony didn’t lead to any official response further intensified the backlash.

All things considered, while there’s more than enough time for Real Madrid to claw their way back into Champions League or La Liga contention, this definitely isn’t how they envisioned the first third of their season going. They’re not out of it by any means - but it will be a difficult road back.

The Weekly Take, Issue 337: Now in Uncharted Territory, the Situation Has Changed

Nottingham Forest’s hot start to the Premier League season had already been attracting much attention heading into their match against Arsenal. Prior to this matchday’s fixtures, Forest were fifth in the league and easily on pace for their best league finish since the 1994-95 campaign when they finished third. This was even more impressive given the fact that the Midlands club finished 17th - just one spot above relegation - last season.

However, Forest’s match against Arsenal proved that for all their improvement in such a short span of time, they still have some way to go yet. Forest succumbed to a one-sided 3-0 loss at the Emirates Stadium; the gap in quality was obvious from opening kick-off. Bukayo Saka opened the scoring for the Gunners in the 15th minute; seven minutes after the break, Thomas Partey extended Arsenal’s lead to 2-0. To cap things off, substitute Ethan Nwaneri scored the Gunners’ third with just four minutes of regulation time remaining. It was the 17-year-old’s first career league goal in only his eighth appearance.

Earlier this season, the hype around Forest began to grow after picking up an impressive 1-0 away win against Liverpool. This would soon be followed by a three-match winning streak which elevated Forest to third place after 10 matchdays. However, in hindsight all three of those wins were somewhat deceiving because of the teams against which they were - Crystal Palace, Leicester City, and West Ham United; all three teams are in danger of being relegated this season.

Thus far, a great deal of the credit surrounding Forest’s strong start to the season has gone to head coach Nuno Espírito Santo. However, it might be beginning to appear that this praise might have been premature. While he has indeed presided over a clear improvement at the City Ground, this is where the true test of his coaching skills will come - in the quest to get Forest into a UEFA Conference League or perhaps even Europa League qualification berth.

To be fair to him, this is something which Espírito Santo has done before. In 2018-19, he took Wolverhampton Wanderers to a Europa League spot by finishing seventh in the league in the season directly after Wolves were promoted from the Championship. However, he hasn’t been able to match that level since, with his last two seasons at Molineux Stadium ending in 13th- and 10th-place finishes respectively prior to a brief, ill-fated stint at Tottenham Hotspur, then barely avoiding relegation with Forest last season. Could he have rediscovered his touch? More needs to be seen before anything can be rightly said about that.

There’s no question that many of Forest’s players have evidently taken a step up from last season. The likes of Chris Wood, Ola Aina, and Murillo have all been playing the best football of their respective careers as of late. However, once again, the question has to be raised: very few members of this Forest team have ever been involved in a serious chase for qualification for continental play. It certainly isn’t out of the question that as the season progresses and the pressure increases, they might just end up folding under the spotlight.

That being said, thus far Forest have easily outpaced every expectation of them and on the surface, even a top-10 finish would be well beyond what they might have expected at the beginning of the season. However, now that they’ve been somewhat established in this position for a while and with the race for qualification spots for next season’s European club tournaments being closer than it has ever been, Forest might want to reset their targets because they do have a realistic chance at them - but with these reset targets, performances like the one they just had against Arsenal certainly won’t cut it.

There are certainly opportunities to be had in the upcoming January transfer window; this arguably represents a key opportunity for Nottingham Forest if they’re to seriously contend for continental play next season. While Forest indeed seem like a completely different team to that of the two seasons since their Premier League return after more than two decades, there’s a chance for them to take the next step sooner rather than later - but can they prove that they can hang with the establishment?

The Weekly Take, Issue 336: Light at the End of the Tunnel?

The penultimate matchday of the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League group stage saw Italy knock Belgium out of the tournament by beating them 1-0. The Azzurri’s victory also ensured that they would be in the driver’s seat of Group A2 heading into the final matchday; a draw in their upcoming home match against France would clinch first place in the group and allow them to avoid a tougher quarterfinal match-up against another first-placed team.

A match that could realistically have swung either way was decided early on via Sandro Tonali’s goal in the 11th minute. The Newcastle midfielder took advantage of some horrendous defensive play by Belgium to score his first career goal in international play.

Italy certainly haven’t had the best run of form in international tournaments as of late. Their Euro 2020 victory now appears to be an obvious outlier; since then they’ve failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, then have been knocked out of Euro 2024 in the round of 16. Even before all of this, Italy missed out on the 2018 World Cup as well.

By the time the 2026 World Cup in North America begins, it will have been 20 years since the last time Italy advanced beyond the group stage of a World Cup. However, if the signs they have shown thus far in this season’s Nations League are anything to go by, there may yet be signs of life in international football’s biggest fallen giant.

In this season’s Nations League, Italy certainly seem to have turned it around. Despite having been drawn into a difficult group containing France and Belgium, Italy have been majorly impressive thus far. After picking up a 3-1 upset win against France at the Parc des Princes during the opening matchday, Italy haven’t looked back - and a lot of this has to do with head coach Luciano Spalletti. After Italy crashed out of Euro 2024 against Switzerland, Spalletti retooled the team’s general strategy and direction.

Spalletti has begun to favour greater positional flexibility, making the team’s tactical setup much more versatile especially when compared to the years when predecessor Roberto Mancini is in charge. It’s this adaptability which served Italy well in their away victories over France and Belgium. This is especially noticeable when Italy are attacking; their setup allows certain players more opportunities to make key off-ball runs to catch opposing defenses off-guard. Spalletti has also utilized decoy plays, often making use of pass-and-move sequences and diagonal balls for these. Both were key parts of the Serie A title that Spalletti coached Napoli to; he’s now brought them into the national team to much effect.

But beyond the X’s and O’s, Spalletti appears to have instilled a degree of grit and heart within the team that wasn’t nearly as present before. Although it might not have been the most outstanding performance, Italy were able to gut it out in a way that they perhaps wouldn’t have been able to just a few months back - let alone a year or two ago. This was most clearly seen in the second half when Italy guarded their lead with a level of intensity that’s sorely been missing over the past decade-plus.

It’s also worth mentioning that several of the players who had previously been fringe selections but have now begun to play larger roles have certainly elevated this team. Players such as Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori, Alessandro Buongiorno, and Samuele Ricci have now become regular starters; this wasn’t the case until the Nations League began, and so far, they not only seem to have slotted in seamlessly, but are playing at a higher level than the players from whom they took their starting spots. More importantly, this appears to be sustainable and not a mere flash in the pan - for all we know, perhaps Italy might have done better at Euro 2024 if one or more of them had seen more playing time.

Of course, it’s way too soon to unequivocally declare that Italy are truly back. However, most of the signs right now are - after years of struggle with the exception of Euro 2020 - pointing in the right direction. While not the outright favourite by any means, they’re looking like a dark horse contender to take the Nations League title.

The Weekly Take, Issue 335: It Would Never Have Been That Easy

Although it was always going to be a tall order for Bayer Leverkusen to even come close to matching their historic achievements of last season, Die Werkself had nevertheless gotten off to a strong start in their return to the Champions League following their Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal triumphs in 2023-24. Leverkusen had started off their tournament with victories over Feyenoord and AC Milan as well as a draw against Brest; however, this most recent matchday was their toughest test to date as they headed to Anfield to play against Premier League leaders Liverpool.

As things turned out, however, Leverkusen ended up being completely outplayed and outclassed. They were steamrolled by their English opponents in a crushing 4-0 loss with all four goals coming in the second half. About midway through the half, Luis Díaz and Cody Gakpo both scored within a two-minute span to give the Reds a two-goal lead. Díaz added his second and Liverpool’s third with seven minutes remaining in regulation time after finishing off Mohamed Salah’s cross. The Colombian winger completed his hat-trick in stoppage time after taking advantage of a Darwin Núñez attempt which happened to be blocked in his direction.

Heading into this season, expectations were understandably sky-high at the BayArena after everything they achieved during their already legendary 2023-24 campaign. Leverkusen won the Bundesliga without losing any matches, becoming the first club to ever win Germany’s domestic league title with an Invincibles season. They also won the DFB-Pokal and made the final of the Europa League.

Adding another storyline to this match was the fact that Xabi Alonso had just missed out on the Ballon d’Or Coach of the Year award after having been beaten to the honour by Carlo Ancelotti of Real Madrid. It was an outcome which many decried given the fact that Alonso accomplished everything which he did with far fewer financial resources to work with in comparison to Ancelotti at Real. In addition, Leverkusen were not expected to finish the season with any silverware at all, let alone completely dominate the Bundesliga and remain undefeated throughout the entire campaign.

Instead, Leverkusen were shown the harsh truth that the Champions League represents a completely different level. Liverpool, a team seasoned by six consecutive seasons in the Champions League before missing out on last season’s, were ready for the occasion while Leverkusen clearly weren’t. In particular, Leverkusen produced next to nothing in the final third and never looked likely to get onto the scoresheet.

In what has become a very rare occurrence, Alonso got his tactical setup completely wrong. Alonso tried to outwit his Liverpool counterpart Arne Slot by deviating from his usual 3-4-2-1 formation, instead going with a 3-5-2 and pairing Victor Boniface and Florian Wirtz up front with the latter in the unfamiliar role of the false nine. It was a sharp reminder to the man from the Basque Country that though it’s more or less been smooth sailing throughout his coaching career to date, errors like that at this level - this is Alonso’s first season in the dugout for a Champions League campaign - can and will be punished.

Leverkusen’s players in general also appeared overmatched and out of their depths. In particular, the likes of Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah, and even Boniface and veteran midfielder Granit Xhaka were absolutely no match for their counterparts on the Reds. The gap between the two teams was clearly on display; their opposing matchups clearly exhibited their far greater Champions League experience to its maximum effect.

Of course, this result doesn’t spell the end of Leverkusen’s Champions League road by any means. They’re still in a reasonably strong position - they will almost certainly finish in the top 24 where they will have a chance to play for a round of 16 berth; they even have a puncher’s chance of bouncing back, making the top eight, and thereby earning a bye into the last 16. However, the events that just transpired at Anfield show that despite how far they’ve already come, in some ways Leverkusen remain a work in progress.

While in general, Bayer Leverkusen appear primed to back up the success they had last season with another solid campaign, there are nonetheless signs that they might be starting to struggle under the weight of arguably inflated expectations. That being said, if they can clinch qualification for next season’s Champions League while also making this season’s Champions League quarter-finals - certainly a realistic outcome - they can nevertheless consider this season a positive one.

The Weekly Take, Issue 334: Sometimes, the Quick Fix Works

To say that Napoli’s Serie A title defense last season was a feeble one would certainly be an understatement. The season before, the Campanian club won the Scudetto for the first time in 33 years by a massive 16-point margin over league runners-up Inter Milan. After such a dominant league campaign in 2022-23, Napoli appeared primed to run it back and make a serious push for back-to-back Serie A titles.

However, Napoli’s 2023-24 season could not have been more different. Before the season began, head coach Luciano Spalletti left his position to accept the then-vacant job at the helm of the Italian national team. Rudi Garcia took over; however, results were underwhelming and Garcia was fired in November 2023. Garcia was replaced by Walter Mazzarri who made no improvements whatsoever; he too was dismissed in short order. Francesco Calzona took over for the Tuscan.

Napoli didn’t even come close to replicating the success of the season prior. So dismal was their play that home matches which ended in their players being booed off the field started to become commonplace as the end of the season approached. When it was all over, Napoli finished just 10th in the league with just 53 points, missing out on a Champions League spot by a whopping 15 points. Napoli finished in their lowest league placement since the 2008-09 season when they were 12th.

Unsurprisingly, Napoli overhauled just about everything this past off-season. A major pickup came in the dugout when they landed Antonio Conte as Calzona’s replacement. A four-time Serie A champion over the course of his coaching career, Conte was widely expected to bring stability to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona following the chaos of the prior season.

In the transfer window, Napoli spent heavily yet prudently. Instead of going all-in on a top-tier superstar, Napoli shelled out more than €150 million over six players including Scott McTominay, Alessandro Buongiorno, and Romelu Lukaku who’d be tasked with matching the goalscoring output of former star striker Victor Osimhen whose frayed relationship with the club led to his loan stint at Galatasaray. Napoli also picked up Leonardo Spinazzola on a free transfer from Roma.

All these changes have clearly worked - Napoli have already built a healthy lead on top of Serie A and have just extended it with a 2-0 victory over AC Milan. Lukaku opened the scoring in the fifth minute before Khvicha Kvaratskhelia clinched all three points with Napoli’s second goal shortly before half-time.

Turnarounds like what has been happening at Napoli don’t come around all too often. Perhaps the most important thing that has to be pointed out regarding their hot start has to be how they finessed the transfer market. In Lukaku and McTominay, Napoli picked up two players who were still capable of being high-level starters but whose stock happened to be low at the time. Landing centre-back Buongiorno for €35 million was also a very savvy acquisition; Buongiorno was fresh off a breakout season for his hometown club Torino in which he emerged as the club’s best player. At 25, he still likely has his absolute peak ahead of him as well.

The hiring of Conte has turned out to be a masterstroke. As was the case with Lukaku and McTominay, Conte’s stock was at an all-time low after having left Tottenham Hotspur in controversial circumstances in March 2023. Conte had not returned to the touchline since. Once again, Napoli understood exactly what Conte brought to the table and made the move that’s likely been the primary catalyst behind their return to the top of the league.

Speaking after Napoli’s victory over Milan, Conte claimed that Napoli’s main target this season was to secure a return to continental tournament play in 2025-26. However, it’s already obvious that this was far too modest an objective. This revamped Napoli team is genuinely very impressive - and it appears to be sustainable as well. This isn’t a team being carried by the brilliance of one or two elite players. It’s a well-rounded unit that right now might be the most underrated team there is.

Not many would have expected Napoli to right the ship as quickly as they did. However, unlike what a lot of other clubs in their position might’ve done, Napoli figured out what they needed to do and made all the right moves instead of any reckless, ill-advised ones. There’s no reason why they can’t go on to make it two Serie A titles in three seasons.

The Weekly Take, Issue 333: #ŞahinOut

First off, I would like to speak for myself as a Borussia Dortmund fan. Die Schwarzgelbe's most recent Champions League match against Real Madrid, especially in the second half, was one of the most abject and inept displays I have ever seen from the club in my 14 years as a Dortmund fan.

Despite carrying a 2-0 lead into half-time of their away match against Real in the third Champions League matchday of the league phase, Dortmund capitulated after the break, giving up five goals, including a second-half Vinícius Júnior hat-trick, to lose 5-2. Dortmund's first-half goals scored by Donyell Malen and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens unexpectedly put them in a commanding position heading into the break - but after it, Dortmund did what they've done for so much of this season, effectively rolling over and surrendering as soon as Real netted their first goal via Antonio Rüdiger in the 60th minute.

Vinícius scored Real's equalizer just two minutes later before a trio of late goals from the 83rd minute to stoppage time - one by Lucas Vázquez, two by Vinícius - finished Dortmund off and ensured that this rematch of last season's Champions League final would have the same outcome.

While there's certainly much blame to be passed around in the wake of Dortmund's loss, one person in particular deserves the bulk of it - and anyone who has been following what has been going on at Signal Iduna Park this season knows exactly who that person is.

There is a reason almost the entire fanbase hated the off-season hire of Nuri Şahin who has since proven that he's completely out of his depth coaching Dortmund. The sooner he's fired, the better off Dortmund will be. Including me, basically the entire fanbase ran out of patience weeks ago - and this latest disasterclass is further evidence of that. Şahin made a series of tactical errors that cost Dortmund the victory - and some of these errors were the type which even an ordinary fan sitting on the couch could easily have pointed out.

The most notable of these errors was his decision to substitute English winger Bynoe-Gittens in the 55th minute, bringing in centre-back Waldemar Anton. While it's understandable that Şahin wanted to prioritize protecting the 2-0 lead which Dortmund already had, Şahin could scarcely have made a worse substitution. For one thing, Bynoe-Gittens had been Dortmund's best player up to that point and if at any point Dortmund would need to switch from defense back to offense, Bynoe-Gittens would've likely been the key player to make that happen.

In addition, Anton is a centre-back. At the very least, Şahin could've brought in a full-back to ensure that Dortmund's tactical setup was minimally compromised. It thus came as little surprise that just seven minutes after the substitution, Real scored two goals to tie it at 2-2. Obviously, the only thing that Şahin was thinking was "bring in a defender to shore up the defense and protect the lead" without even giving himself a split-second to think of what the best way to do so would've been.

Şahin also substituted Norwegian right-back Julian Ryerson and replaced him with central midfielder Emre Can. Playing out of position, Can was woefully unprepared to guard Vinícius - and it clearly showed in Vinícius' second and Real's fourth goal when he offered next to no resistance in letting the Brazilian winger stride past him and subsequently run all the way down the pitch for an uncontested solo goal.

Despite being a club icon as a player who spent ten and a half seasons at Dortmund including five and a half as a starter, there was a reason that the fans were apprehensive about Şahin's hiring - and they have been proven right. Şahin's utter incompetence hits new depths nearly every week. Even just two months into the season, Şahin has already done so much damage to Dortmund's season that they already find themselves playing catch-up in the race for a top-four Bundesliga finish and a spot in next season's Champions League.

Quite frankly, even much-maligned former Borussia Dortmund head coaches Peter Stöger and Peter Bosz look like tactical geniuses in comparison to Nuri Şahin - let alone their successors Lucien Favre and Edin Terzić. If Şahin isn't canned by the start of the mid-season break, Dortmund are highly unlikely to come away from this season with anything of note apart from misery and underachievement.

The Weekly Take, Issue 332: Already a One-Season Wonder?

Last season, VfB Stuttgart came out of absolutely nowhere to finish second in the Bundesliga and even finished ahead of Bayern Munich who had won the previous 11 league titles in a row. It was Stuttgart's best league finish since clinching the Meisterschale back in the 2006-07 in one of the most memorable endings to a Bundesliga season of all time. Additionally, Stuttgart finished with 73 points to set a new club record. Stuttgart's 2023-24 season was a remarkable turnaround from their prior campaign when they only avoided relegation to the 2. Bundesliga by beating Hamburg SV over a two-legged playoff.

By far the biggest off-season story surrounding Stuttgart was the departure of star striker Serhou Guirassy to Borussia Dortmund. Die Schwarzgelbe brought the Guinean to Signal Iduna Park for the astonishingly low transfer fee of just €17.5 million. The season before, Guirassy had a breakout campaign, spearheading Stuttgart's rise to second place in the Bundesliga by netting 28 league goals, accounting for more than a third of every league goal scored by a Stuttgart player.

Following Guirassy's departure, Stuttgart have unsurprisingly gotten off to a slow start this season - a point driven home by their capitulation in a 4-0 away loss against Bayern Munich. Stuttgart never looked for a moment as though they even had a chance and were evidently outclassed right from opening kick-off. Somewhat surprisingly, it took Bayern until the second half to make it onto the scoresheet, but they never looked back as soon as they did. Harry Kane scored a second-half hat-trick to seal the victory for Bayern and keep them in first place in the league. Substitute Kingsley Coman then finished things off with Bayern's fourth goal in the 89th minute.

With this loss, Stuttgart are now ninth in the league; their chances of finishing in the top four and qualifying for next season's Champions League are certainly not the best at the moment. Many of Stuttgart's sequences of play in this match summed up how their season has gone thus far. It seemed as though every time Stuttgart would be on the brink of putting something together, they'd inevitably have a misplay and blow a possible chance for a goalscoring opportunity.

To make matters worse, as soon as Kane scored Bayern's first goal in the 57th minute, Stuttgart just flat-out collapsed. That goal seemed to have drained Stuttgart of whatever fighting spirit they might have previously had - something that shows a stark and alarming contrast when compared to this same Stuttgart team from last season. The Stuttgart side of the 2023-24 Bundesliga campaign would definitely not have mentally checked out after going a goal behind but instead have fought tooth and nail to get an equalizer. That was just about the exact opposite of what Stuttgart showed in their collapse at the Allianz Arena.

Of course, much of Stuttgart's drop-off can indeed be attributed to Guirassy's departure from MHPArena. While Deniz Undav and new signing Ermedin Demirović have been pulling their weight up front, neither are at the level at which they can truly step in for an elite player like Guirassy. Though Undav does have four league goals thus far, two of them came in Stuttgart's 5-1 thrashing of Dortmund - a result which had many people thinking that Stuttgart were once again legit and a serious threat to make the top four.

However, there's a case to be made that Guirassy was the best player in the entire league last season. Though Undav and Demirović aren't scrubs by any means, there were times last season when Guirassy all but put the rest of the Stuttgart team on his back, dragging the team to wins that they'd never have had a serious chance of getting without him.

Finally, Stuttgart have been extremely inconsistent so far this season. Their performance against Bayern could not have been more opposite to their mauling of Dortmund a month ago. Stuttgart can't seem to string good performances together - and as a result, they've already lost early ground in the chase for a Champions League berth.

Could it have been possible that VfB Stuttgart caught lightning in a bottle for one season and rode it all the way through? Early signs this season show that it very well could've been the case. While there's still more than enough time for Stuttgart to turn it around, their backs are already against the wall not even a quarter of the way into the 2024-25 season.