The Weekly Take, Issue 355: The Hottest Streak Gets Even Hotter

The latest iteration of the Seville derby saw two clubs in completely different runs of form facing off. Real Betis entered the match on a streak of five consecutive wins in La Liga; seemingly out of nowhere, they’d flipped the switch in mid-February and have since been in molten-hot form, taking win after win—including one against Real Madrid. With this recent surge, Betis had forced their way into contention for a top-four spot and a berth in next season’s Champions League.

Sevilla, on the other hand, could barely have been further away as far as pre-match form was concerned. Over their prior eight matches, Sevilla had won just two, collecting just eight points out of a possible 24 along the way. However, in many cases the results of derby matches have nothing to do with the teams’ form heading into the match—the one thing Sevilla had going for them, however scant it may have been.

Sevilla scored the opening goal against the run of play in the 17th minute. Swiss winger Rubén Vargas put Sevilla a goal ahead after having been set up by Dodi Lukébakio. This, however, didn’t last as just eight minutes later, Betis scored the equalizer via Johnny Cardoso’s volley.

Betis would go on to take the lead during first-half stoppage time when Cucho Hernández put the ball past Sevilla goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland after having been set-up for a one-on-one chance by veteran midfielder Isco. Neither side would add to the scoresheet in the second half, ensuring Betis would claim their sixth league win in a row and their first derby victory since a 5-3 victory back in 2018.

Over the past month and a half, Betis have been through a stunning turnaround. After four consecutive seasons of finishing between fifth and seventh in La Liga, the 2024-25 campaign had been shaping up to represent a significant step backwards for Betis; they were in 11th place prior to this six-match win streak. At this point, however, Betis are now in sixth place and have a puncher’s chance of overhauling Athletic Bilbao who are currently fourth.

So how did this happen? Well, for one thing, Betis’ hot streak highlights the importance of the mid-season transfer window. It’s no coincidence that their recent surge began in mid-February after the end of the transfer window. Despite bringing just two players to Estadio Benito Villamarín, both have been highly impactful acquisitions. Over the past month and a half, Hernández - signed from Major League Soccer club Columbus Crew for €13 million - and Antony who was brought in on loan from Manchester United have been arguably the club’s two best players. Both have added another layer to Betis’ play which the club simply didn’t have earlier on in the season; the results since then are clear evidence of this.

Prior to this season, the aforementioned four straight seasons in the top seven coincided with the hiring of Manuel Pellegrini in the off-season heading into the 2020-21 season. The Chilean has since proven that he is one of the most underrated coaches in world football today; this has been most obvious this season as Pellegrini has played a major role in taking Betis from being mired in mid-table and facing a throwaway season to the chase for a Champions League spot - and in their current form, they might just pull it off.

The late-career revival of Isco has to be mentioned as well. After a difficult last season at Real, Isco signed for Sevilla in August 2022 but was cut a little over four months later. After remaining unsigned for the rest of the season, Betis signed him in the 2023 off-season. Since arriving at Betis, Isco looks more like the player who played a major role in Real’s four Champions League title runs over his nine years at the Santiago Bernabéu - something not many might have expected when Betis first signed him.

At this point, Real Betis would be written off at one’s peril; in their current form, they might just qualify for the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history. This would have seemed all but impossible just two months ago. While it’s certainly not a lock by any means, right now the only thing that can be realistically said of Betis is “why not them”?

The Weekly Take, Issue 354: International Football's Most Storied Rivalry Adds a New Chapter

The quarterfinals of the UEFA Nations League saw arch-rivals Germany and Italy paired against each other - and over the two legs, the fixture more than lived up to the reputation created by many iconic Germany/Italy matches over the years.

The first leg at San Siro saw Italy take an early lead through a goal scored by Sandro Tonali. However, things turned around after the break. Tim Kleindienst, who had replaced Mainz striker Jonathan Burkardt at half-time, found the net just a few minutes later and thus put Die Mannschaft back on level terms. In the 76th minute, Germany took the lead after Leon Goretzka scored with a header off a cross from Bayern Munich teammate Joshua Kimmich. It was also Kimmich’s second assist of the match after having set up the prior goal scored by Borussia Mönchengladbach striker Kleindienst. The first leg would end 2-1 to Germany.

After the first half of the second leg at Signal Iduna Park, it looked as though Italy were dead in the water. Germany took a 3-0 match lead, and thus a 5-1 aggregate lead into the half-time break, following goals scored by Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, and Kleindienst. At that point it seemed like a wrap; however, the Azzurri mounted a furious comeback in the second half. Fiorentina striker Moise Kean scored in the 49th and 69th minutes to give Italy a glimmer of hope. In stoppage time, Giacomo Raspadori scored a penalty to put Italy a step closer - but they ultimately ran out of time; Germany would advance to the semi-finals.

At this point, it’s safe to say that Germany vs Italy is the greatest rivalry in the history of international football. This was an instant classic without any question; however, as pulsating as this Nations League fixture - especially the second leg - was, it still doesn’t even match up to the most iconic matches between the two.

This is a rivalry which has seen matches like the 1970 World Cup semifinal, the 1982 World Cup final, the 2006 World Cup semifinal, and the Euro 2012 semifinal. While Germany/Italy might not have the sheer incendiary nature of Brazil/Argentina, the historic weight of Germany/Netherlands, or even the sociopolitically-charged element that Argentina/England has, when it comes to strictly the on-field product, no other rivalry has churned out banger after banger like this one has.

In addition to all those epic matches, another element that further elevates this rivalry is the fact that over the years, there have been clear narratives running through it. For example, until 2022, Germany had never beaten Italy in a tournament match without needing at least extra time. This changed in spectacular style when Germany beat Italy 5-2 in their second of two group matches in the 2022-23 Nations League.

On the flipside, some of Italy’s wins over Germany have bolstered their own narratives as well. Cases in point: their 1982 World Cup and Euro 2012 victories spearheaded by a pair of controversial strikers: Paolo Rossi and Mario Balotelli respectively. Despite the off-field drama that had surrounded each of them even long before their respective tournaments, both silenced the doubters with match-winning performances and etched their names into the history of this iconic rivalry.

One final reason why Germany/Italy is the greatest of all international football rivalries is the fact that it involves two of the most decorated and historically successful international football teams ever. Although it may be true that Italy haven’t even made it to the last two World Cups while Germany largely struggled throughout that same period, that’s been a minor blip - both Germany and Italy have almost always been elite or close to it at the same time and for the vast majority of the respective team histories. After all, eight World Cups and five European Championships between the two speak for themselves.

No other international football rivalry brings every element of what makes a rivalry truly epic to the table the way the one between Germany and Italy does. After something of a lull following their Euro 2016 match as both teams entered difficult periods, Europe’s two most successful international teams ever are both once again back on the rise—and without any question, this iconic rivalry will have so much more to offer over the years to come.

The Weekly Take, Issue 353: The Clear Team to Beat Right Now

The most recent La Liga matchday was highlighted by a match which saw Atlético Madrid host Barcelona in a clash which would have major implications on this season’s title race. A win for Barça would put them in first place in the league - and even that after having played a game less than Real Madrid who would then be second.

As for Atlético, this match represented an opportunity to gain important ground on Barça. By beating their Catalan opponents, Atlético would move two points clear of them and just one point behind cross-town arch-rivals Real. In addition, this was also an opportunity for Atlético to bounce back after Real had just knocked them out of the Champions League’s round of 16 in a penalty shootout.

Atlético took the lead shortly before half-time. Julián Alvarez atoned for his crucial missed penalty in Atlético’s prior Champions League fixture by opening the scoring off a pass from Giuliano Simeone. By doing so, Alvarez punished Barça for blowing several key chances earlier in the half.

In the 70th minute, Alexander Sørloth made it 2-0 in Atlético’s favor and seemingly clinched the win over the Blaugrana. Having come off the bench, the Norwegian striker beat the offside trap to score Atlético’s second. At this point, it looked as though Atlético had it in the bag.

Remarkably, Barça flipped the script with two goals over the next eight minutes. Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres pulled Barça level, making this somewhat of an inverse to the first leg of the two teams’ recent Copa Del Rey semifinal when Barça surrendered a late two-goal lead to end up with a 4-4 draw.

Barça went on to complete the comeback in stoppage time. Lamine Yamal’s shot from outside the penalty area took a heavy deflection off Atlético defender Reinildo on its way into the back of the net. Torres would subsequently add his second and Barça’s fourth deep into the additional minutes to move a step closer to reclaiming the league title they surrendered to Real last season.

After a slump in November and December, Barça are once again firing on all cylinders. The victory over Atlético was their seventh in a row in the league; over that span, Barça have flooded opposing nets with 23 goals over those seven matches while conceding just five. They are unquestionably the hottest team on the planet right now and the clear favorites to not only win La Liga, but the Champions League as well following Liverpool’s shocking elimination in the round of 16. Barça’s molten-hot attack has been powering them almost all season long. Among teams in major European leagues, only Bayern Munich are averaging more goals per match - and that in a relatively easier league as well.

Additionally, a large part of Barça’s success this season has to do with their depth. Barça are probably the deepest team on the planet and on multiple occasions throughout the season, they’ve had one or more players come off the bench to make major impacts. This was once again the case against Atlético with two of their four goals scored by Torres who entered the game to replace Dani Olmo about halfway through the second half. It’s this depth which has put Barça in a position in which winning the Treble for an unprecedented third time in club history isn’t even out of the question.

Of course, for the team to remain at this level, star power is a must - and against Atlético, Barça’s ace winger Lamine Yamal turned in another outstanding performance. There’s a realistic chance that at just 17, Yamal has a legitimate chance to become the youngest player to ever win the Ballon d’Or. The La Masia alumnus is not only already Barça’s best player; there’s a case to be made that he’s among the top five players on the planet right now. Not only is Yamal already “that guy”; it’s mind-boggling to think of the level at which he could be in five or 10 years’ time.

Though the final stretch of the season is yet to unfold, Barcelona have clearly put themselves in a very strong position. There’s every chance that when their 2024-25 campaign is in the books, there will be multiple new additions to Barça’s trophy cabinet.

The Weekly Take, Issue 352: The Overhaul That Was Needed Years Ago

The abolition of the prior rule prohibiting teams from the same country from being drawn against each other in the early knockout rounds of the Champions League opened the door for the round of 16 fixture between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen to take place—the standout of the eight clashes which put a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

The first of two legs was a one-sided affair which almost certainly sealed Bayern’s spot in the quarter-finals. When Harry Kane opened the scoring for Bayern in the ninth minute, it immediately became obvious that Leverkusen were in for a difficult night at the Allianz Arena. However, despite dominating every facet of the match, Bayern were somewhat surprisingly unable to further increase their lead before the half-time break.

This changed soon after the interval following Leverkusen goalkeeper Matěj Kovář’s fumble of a cross sent in by Bayern winger Kingsley Coman. Jamal Musiala was in just the right spot to take advantage - which he duly did to put Bayern 2-0 ahead. Eight minutes later, it got even tougher for Leverkusen when defender Nordi Mukiele was tossed after picking up a second yellow card.

Bayern put the finishing touch on the victory when Kane earned and converted a penalty in the 75th minute. The Bavarian club’s 3-0 win has now left Leverkusen with an almost-impossible task heading into the second leg at the BayArena; on only four occasions in Champions League history has a team overturned a three-goal deficit from the first leg to advance to the next round.

While there are many points to consider regarding this match, one of the most notable has to be about the circumstances which even made this match possible in the first place. Although UEFA have taken much criticism for a number of their decisions in recent years - often deservedly so at that - their tweaking of the Champions League format has proven to be a masterstroke.

By changing the format of the opening round to a Swiss bracket, the number of matches with “nothing on the line” has been greatly reduced, creating a considerably more competitive environment. It’s no longer a guarantee that powerhouse teams who are seen as potential title contenders can just roll up and stroll into the round of 16. They now have to earn it the hard way - something teams such as Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, and most dramatically of all, Manchester City will readily attest to.

That being said, I would suggest two ways by which the Swiss bracket can be further improved. First off, as things are now, the top eight teams automatically qualify for the round of 16 while the teams finishing from ninth to 24th enter the play-ins for the remaining eight berths. This ought to be changed so that the top 12 automatically advance to the last 16 while the play-ins should involve the teams from 13th to 20th place.

Additionally, making the bracket a “true Swiss bracket” would dial up the excitement even more. In this way, each team would not know their next opponent until a re-draw after each matchday. All teams would be paired according to win-loss records up to that point. By accounting for what is known as “resistance”, the competitiveness of the opening round would be taken up another notch.

As for the decision to allow teams of the same country to play against each other as soon as the knockout rounds begin, UEFA got this one spot-on. There was absolutely no reason whatsoever for the initial rule to have been in place—it appears to have essentially been instituted arbitrarily. Over the years, this rule has prevented some truly epic matchups from happening for basically no reason at all.

Although the one-sidedness of Bayern’s victory over Leverkusen might not necessarily serve as the best advocate for the efficacy of rescinding the rule, there’s no question that it’s been a net positive for the tournament. With the removal of this restriction, the knockout rounds now serve as a truer test of who most deserves to make it to the final.

Despite the initial mass dismay which was the general reaction to the Champions League’s format changes, it’s now become evident that they ought to have been implemented years ago. Sometimes, a mass overhaul is indeed necessary - as has been shown this season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 351: A Mid-Season Transfer Window to Forget Led to This

In what was likely the most important Serie A match to date this season, Napoli hosted Inter Milan in a clash which would see its winner climb into first place in the league. Neither team entered the match in good form - Napoli were winless over their preceding four matches while Inter had collected just seven points over their last five. Thus, this match was not only one which would allow the team comin out on top to deal a major blow against their main title rival; it would also get their season back on track after a recent slump.

As things turned out, however, neither team was able to rise to the moment as Napoli and Inter played to a 1-1 draw. Federico Dimarco opened the scoring for Inter with a free kick in the 22nd minute shortly after Inter had their claim for a penalty rejected following a collision in the penalty area between Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay and Denzel Dumfries. It was almost as though Dimarco took out his frustrations about the penalty being denied on the ball, burying it in the far corner to put the Nerazzurri a goal ahead.

However, that would be about as good as it would get for Inter. For the vast majority of the match and especially after Inter scored the opening goal, Napoli clearly dominated proceedings and launched shot after shot at the Inter net. It was thus rather surprising that the score remained 1-0 in Inter's favour at half-time.

Napoli continued to pour on the pressure throughout the second half and eventually, their persistence did pay off. With just three minutes of regulation time remaining, substitute Philip Billing couldn't finish off Stanislav Lobotka's pass; his shot was saved by Inter goalkeeper Josep Martínez. However, the ball came back to Billing; on the second attempt, the Danish midfielder slotted it in to ensure that Napoli would not finish the match empty-handed.

Despite the late equalizer, Napoli will certainly be looking at this result as a blown opportunity. Their recent downturn in form is no coincidence - it's come as a direct result of the departure of superstar winger Khvicha Kvaratshkelia to Paris Saint-Germain in the mid-season transfer window. At the time of his departure for the Parc des Princes, "Kvara" was clearly Napoli's best player. Napoli's failure to adequately replace him dealt a significant blow to their hopes of reclaiming the league title that they last won two seasons ago.

In addition, there have to be questions brought up over Victor Osimhen. After a hot start, Osimhen's replacement at centre-forward Romelu Lukaku has seen his form tail off dramatically in recent months. Osimhen, on the other hand, while playing on loan in the far weaker Süper Lig with Galatasaray on loan from Napoli this season, has sent his parent club a clear message as to what they're missing after having left the club in controversial circumstances. However, given everything that happened which led to the Nigerian being set on loan to Galatasaray, it's not partiularly likely that Osimhen will end up returning to Campania - something Napoli could deeply regret should they fail to win the league this season.

Going back to the Kvaratshkelia transfer to PSG, Napoli should have done more with the windfall they received from his departure. PSG signed the Georgian for a transfer fee of €70 million - a total which they could easily have put towards signing multiple new players. This would've represented an opportunity for Napoli to get the jump on Inter by bringing in one or more key players to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona; however, it was an opportunity that Napoli completely missed - and that might just cost them the league title.

Of course, a sense of perspective must still be kept. For all of this, Napoli are still just one point behind Inter in the race for the Scudetto. They're still coached by one of the best today in Antonio Conte; in addition, the signings from their highly fruitful off-season transfer window have picked up many key points for Napoli so far.

However, after having lost their Serie A lead to Inter during their ongoing winless streak, Napoli are no longer in the driver's seat as far as the Scudetto chase is concerned - and it's a direct result of everything that happened in the January transfer window.

The Weekly Take, Issue 350: Tactical Thoughts

This being another “milestone” post, I’ve decided to go with a more personal approach to this post - it’ll include some of my thoughts on the current state of the football “metagame” that some of you might disagree with - but which I nonetheless hold firmly to as of right now.

Without further ado:

The Most Important Position in the Game Is Defensive Midfielder

Defensive midfielder is arguably the most underappreciated position in any team sport. While centre-forwards, wingers, number 10s, and attacking midfielders always get the bulk of the spotlight, at the moment the most important position of all is the least stereotypically “glamorous” one. A number 6 who’s at the very least serviceable is a necessity for any team with genuine hopes of challenging for a Champions League title.

In the current meta, the defensive midfielder no longer serves as “just the first line of defense”. Modern defensive midfielders are also often the players who start the transition from defense to attack - though the “regista” archetype of defensive midfielder in the style of players like Fernando Redondo has largely fallen out of favour. The present-day defensive midfielder arguably requires a more diverse skillset than does any other position.

The importance of the position has been shown at its most striking this season via Manchester City’s struggles. Having lost reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri to a torn ACL early in the season, the Citizens have looked a shadow of the team which has dominated the Premier League and been a serious Champions League contender in recent years. If this had been any other player, City would not have struggled like this - their entire strategy can be said to be built around Rodri. Looking at other elite teams, though none are quite on Rodri’s level, the likes of Real Madrid’s Aurélien Tchouaméni, Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch, and Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich equally have indispensable roles for their respective teams. Once again, replace them with a player not close to their level and their teams would implode.

4-4-2 Is (Usually) Not It

There’s a very specific type of football fan who pines for the “good old days” of the 4-4-2 formation. In reality, however, there’s a very good reason why almost no one runs 4-4-2 anymore.

A flat midfield four is often incredibly rigid and inflexible. It often doesn’t leave much room for a “plan B” if the opponent finds a way to shut down the team’s general strategy. In addition, although the idea of dual centre-forwards might seem tempting on the surface to those looking for additional offensive firepower, this comes at the cost of playmaking. A classic 4-4-2 formation includes no number 10s - the position for which playmaking is the primary duty (more on this shortly). For that reason, a team that runs a 4-4-2 is almost always forced to go with a “number 10 by committee” approach - something which is often unlikely to work except in specific circumstances.

Right now, 4-4-2 is best used as a “pocket strat” against specific teams which it counters - and even then it should still be modified from the standard 4-4-2 such as in Manchester United’s 4-4-2 with dual false 9s in their FA Cup final upset victory over City.

Number 10s: “Adapt or Die”

Though “adapt or die” may be a cliché, it’s one which perfectly fits number 10s today. Old-school number 10s have been all but phased out of the meta. Every number 10 who is to remain at the top today must also be at least reasonably capable at either winger, attacking midfielder, or false 9.

In addition, the days of the “number 10 main” are looking increasingly numbered; most players who start at 10 these days are 8/10s rather than 10/8s. This is understandable when one considers the fact that it’s much easier for a young attacking midfielder to learn playmaking skills than it is for a young number 10 to learn box-to-box skills.

It can even be said that several number 10s who were once considered highly promising prospects but never quite lived up to the hype such as Ganso, Christian Pulisic, and Mario Götze were “born in the wrong era”: had they been in their prime in the 1990s or 2000s, they’d have gone on to be superstars; however, their playstyle was quite simply a poor fit for the modern football meta.

The Weekly Take, Issue 349: Does It Get Worse? Oh Yes, It Does

At the beginning of the season, anyone who would’ve said that Manchester City would find themselves close to elimination from the Champions League before the round of 16 while also being all the way back in fifth place in the Premier League, 15 points behind league leaders Liverpool, would have been roundly mocked - and understandably so. After all, the Citizens had not only won the last four domestic league titles in a row; they’d also made it to at least the quarterfinals of the last seven editions of the Champions League.

However, as has clearly been seen in what’s been City’s worst season in a very long time, the blue half of Manchester hit another low with a 3-2 home loss in the first leg of their Champions League round of 24 fixture against Real Madrid.

The match started well for City. In the 19th minute, Erling Haaland finished off a well-constructed sequence in which he’d already played a part in creating after getting on the end of a Jack Grealish pass via an additional touch from Joško Gvardiol who was credited with the assist. Following the goal, Real started pushing much harder and although their efforts went unrewarded for the rest of the first half, Kylian Mbappé scored with an unconventional volley in the 60th minute.

With a little over 10 minutes of regulation time left, Real midfielder Dani Ceballos who’d earlier set up Mbappé’s goal fouled Phil Foden in the penalty area, allowing Haaland to step forward and convert the penalty to put City 2-1 ahead. However, as they’ve done so many times before, Real found a way to gut out the win. Six minutes after Haaland’s penalty, Brahim Díaz scored against his former club - a follow-up attempt after Ederson saved a shot from fellow Brazilian Vinícius Júnior before Jude Bellingham put the ball into an empty net in stoppage time to clinch the win for Real and leave City with a lot to do in the second leg in the Spanish capital if they’re to avoid missing out on the last 16 for the first time since the 2012-13 season.

A lot has already been written about City’s remarkable decline this season. However, the whole thing hinges on one man and one particular moment.

On 22 September 2024, City and Arsenal played out a 2-2 draw in the Premier League. The most important moment of the match - in fact, arguably the entire season - occurred when City’s superstar defensive midfielder Rodri tore his ACL, ruling him out for the rest of the season. Almost immediately, City’s level of play plummeted and has stayed down since.

It comes down to this: for all the money they’ve spent and all the talent in their squad, City’s entire strategy ultimately revolved around Rodri prior to the Spaniard’s injury; he was the piece that made it all work. It’s often mentioned that City’s win rate with Rodri is higher than that without him by a massive margin; they don’t seem to have a backup plan sans Rodri.

This brings us to Pep Guardiola who has coached City since 2016. There’s no question that this is the toughest test of his illustrious coaching career thus far - and remarkably, despite the fact that Guardiola is a legitimate GOAT candidate, it’s a test that Guardiola is failing so far. On many occasions this season, the Catalan has appeared utterly bereft of ideas. To make matters worse, City haven’t adjusted at all and have instead looked worse and worse with each passing week - and for that, Guardiola has to receive much blame.

Finally, City’s transfer window strategy has to be scrutinized. Time and again, City haven’t brought in players with skillsets who would’ve been able to be plugged into the squad fairly easily in Rodri’s absence. As such, City’s squad is now rather unbalanced especially in midfield - and this has been a major reason why the loss of one player all but sank them.

Even if Manchester City somehow turn it around in the second leg and advance to the round of 16, based on everything we’ve seen from them this season their odds of winning the Champions League for the second time in three seasons are extremely unlikely. The way things seem right now, there seems to be no end to their ongoing woes in sight.