The Weekly Take, Issue 350: Tactical Thoughts

This being another “milestone” post, I’ve decided to go with a more personal approach to this post - it’ll include some of my thoughts on the current state of the football “metagame” that some of you might disagree with - but which I nonetheless hold firmly to as of right now.

Without further ado:

The Most Important Position in the Game Is Defensive Midfielder

Defensive midfielder is arguably the most underappreciated position in any team sport. While centre-forwards, wingers, number 10s, and attacking midfielders always get the bulk of the spotlight, at the moment the most important position of all is the least stereotypically “glamorous” one. A number 6 who’s at the very least serviceable is a necessity for any team with genuine hopes of challenging for a Champions League title.

In the current meta, the defensive midfielder no longer serves as “just the first line of defense”. Modern defensive midfielders are also often the players who start the transition from defense to attack - though the “regista” archetype of defensive midfielder in the style of players like Fernando Redondo has largely fallen out of favour. The present-day defensive midfielder arguably requires a more diverse skillset than does any other position.

The importance of the position has been shown at its most striking this season via Manchester City’s struggles. Having lost reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri to a torn ACL early in the season, the Citizens have looked a shadow of the team which has dominated the Premier League and been a serious Champions League contender in recent years. If this had been any other player, City would not have struggled like this - their entire strategy can be said to be built around Rodri. Looking at other elite teams, though none are quite on Rodri’s level, the likes of Real Madrid’s Aurélien Tchouaméni, Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch, and Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich equally have indispensable roles for their respective teams. Once again, replace them with a player not close to their level and their teams would implode.

4-4-2 Is (Usually) Not It

There’s a very specific type of football fan who pines for the “good old days” of the 4-4-2 formation. In reality, however, there’s a very good reason why almost no one runs 4-4-2 anymore.

A flat midfield four is often incredibly rigid and inflexible. It often doesn’t leave much room for a “plan B” if the opponent finds a way to shut down the team’s general strategy. In addition, although the idea of dual centre-forwards might seem tempting on the surface to those looking for additional offensive firepower, this comes at the cost of playmaking. A classic 4-4-2 formation includes no number 10s - the position for which playmaking is the primary duty (more on this shortly). For that reason, a team that runs a 4-4-2 is almost always forced to go with a “number 10 by committee” approach - something which is often unlikely to work except in specific circumstances.

Right now, 4-4-2 is best used as a “pocket strat” against specific teams which it counters - and even then it should still be modified from the standard 4-4-2 such as in Manchester United’s 4-4-2 with dual false 9s in their FA Cup final upset victory over City.

Number 10s: “Adapt or Die”

Though “adapt or die” may be a cliché, it’s one which perfectly fits number 10s today. Old-school number 10s have been all but phased out of the meta. Every number 10 who is to remain at the top today must also be at least reasonably capable at either winger, attacking midfielder, or false 9.

In addition, the days of the “number 10 main” are looking increasingly numbered; most players who start at 10 these days are 8/10s rather than 10/8s. This is understandable when one considers the fact that it’s much easier for a young attacking midfielder to learn playmaking skills than it is for a young number 10 to learn box-to-box skills.

It can even be said that several number 10s who were once considered highly promising prospects but never quite lived up to the hype such as Ganso, Christian Pulisic, and Mario Götze were “born in the wrong era”: had they been in their prime in the 1990s or 2000s, they’d have gone on to be superstars; however, their playstyle was quite simply a poor fit for the modern football meta.

The Weekly Take, Issue 349: Does It Get Worse? Oh Yes, It Does

At the beginning of the season, anyone who would’ve said that Manchester City would find themselves close to elimination from the Champions League before the round of 16 while also being all the way back in fifth place in the Premier League, 15 points behind league leaders Liverpool, would have been roundly mocked - and understandably so. After all, the Citizens had not only won the last four domestic league titles in a row; they’d also made it to at least the quarterfinals of the last seven editions of the Champions League.

However, as has clearly been seen in what’s been City’s worst season in a very long time, the blue half of Manchester hit another low with a 3-2 home loss in the first leg of their Champions League round of 24 fixture against Real Madrid.

The match started well for City. In the 19th minute, Erling Haaland finished off a well-constructed sequence in which he’d already played a part in creating after getting on the end of a Jack Grealish pass via an additional touch from Joško Gvardiol who was credited with the assist. Following the goal, Real started pushing much harder and although their efforts went unrewarded for the rest of the first half, Kylian Mbappé scored with an unconventional volley in the 60th minute.

With a little over 10 minutes of regulation time left, Real midfielder Dani Ceballos who’d earlier set up Mbappé’s goal fouled Phil Foden in the penalty area, allowing Haaland to step forward and convert the penalty to put City 2-1 ahead. However, as they’ve done so many times before, Real found a way to gut out the win. Six minutes after Haaland’s penalty, Brahim Díaz scored against his former club - a follow-up attempt after Ederson saved a shot from fellow Brazilian Vinícius Júnior before Jude Bellingham put the ball into an empty net in stoppage time to clinch the win for Real and leave City with a lot to do in the second leg in the Spanish capital if they’re to avoid missing out on the last 16 for the first time since the 2012-13 season.

A lot has already been written about City’s remarkable decline this season. However, the whole thing hinges on one man and one particular moment.

On 22 September 2024, City and Arsenal played out a 2-2 draw in the Premier League. The most important moment of the match - in fact, arguably the entire season - occurred when City’s superstar defensive midfielder Rodri tore his ACL, ruling him out for the rest of the season. Almost immediately, City’s level of play plummeted and has stayed down since.

It comes down to this: for all the money they’ve spent and all the talent in their squad, City’s entire strategy ultimately revolved around Rodri prior to the Spaniard’s injury; he was the piece that made it all work. It’s often mentioned that City’s win rate with Rodri is higher than that without him by a massive margin; they don’t seem to have a backup plan sans Rodri.

This brings us to Pep Guardiola who has coached City since 2016. There’s no question that this is the toughest test of his illustrious coaching career thus far - and remarkably, despite the fact that Guardiola is a legitimate GOAT candidate, it’s a test that Guardiola is failing so far. On many occasions this season, the Catalan has appeared utterly bereft of ideas. To make matters worse, City haven’t adjusted at all and have instead looked worse and worse with each passing week - and for that, Guardiola has to receive much blame.

Finally, City’s transfer window strategy has to be scrutinized. Time and again, City haven’t brought in players with skillsets who would’ve been able to be plugged into the squad fairly easily in Rodri’s absence. As such, City’s squad is now rather unbalanced especially in midfield - and this has been a major reason why the loss of one player all but sank them.

Even if Manchester City somehow turn it around in the second leg and advance to the round of 16, based on everything we’ve seen from them this season their odds of winning the Champions League for the second time in three seasons are extremely unlikely. The way things seem right now, there seems to be no end to their ongoing woes in sight.

The Weekly Take, Issue 348: Indicative of Greater Struggles or Rounding Into Form Just in Time?

Before their blockbuster Champions League clash against Manchester City, Real Madrid first had to get through the Madrid derby in the league. This was an especially high-stakes derby because cross-town rivals Atlético Madrid trailed Real by just one point in the league. The winner of the match would leave the Santiago Bernabéu top of the league and deal a severe blow to their rivals’ title chances.

As things turned out, though, both teams finished as they started; the match ended in a 1-1 draw. After a little over a half-hour was played, French midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni surrendered Real’s first penalty of the season after fouling Atlético’s Samuel Lino who’d been attempting to finish off a cross played in by Javi Galán. Julián Alvarez then stepped forward to convert the penalty.

Atlético carried their lead into the half-time break; however, it didn’t take Real much time after the interval to score the equalizing goal. After Jude Bellingham’s initial shot was blocked, Kylian Mbappé was right in position to finish off the follow-up attempt. Following this, Real went on to firmly control the match throughout the second half but, as so many have found over the years, Diego Simeone’s Atlético team are probably the most difficult team to chip away at; their frequent attacks on the Atlético net following Mbappé’s goal yielded nothing further.

Although Real might currently be in first place in La Liga, that doesn’t tell the whole story. This has certainly been a more difficult campaign for Real than what they’d likely have envisioned when the season began. Real started their league season slowly and only recently took the lead for the first time this season; for most of it they’d been playing catch-up to Atlético and Barcelona. Real’s early-season struggles were punctuated by a 4-0 loss to Barça in El Clásico and arguably encapsulated by Mbappé’s slump which ended up costing them several wins.

However, this doesn’t even compare to what they’ve been through in the league phase of the Champions League. After losing three of four matches, Real were dangerously close to not even making it to the round of 24; they were in 24th place after five matchdays before winning their last three to set up a highly anticipated match against City for a spot in the last 16.

While it’s true that this season hasn’t even been close to peak Real, that may be all that’s needed to win them the league title for the fourth time in the last six seasons. Real are currently on pace to finish the season with 83 points in the league. The last time a total that low would’ve won La Liga was almost two decades ago in the 2006-07 season. That being said, due to Atlético’s and Barça’s own inconsistent form, Real have only needed to be “just better than” the two other title contenders.

Needless to say, performances on this level won’t cut it if Real are to make a genuine run at defending their Champions League title. Although their next opponents have had obvious struggles of their own this season to the point at which most are expecting Real to come out on top against City, it almost certainly won’t be enough against the gauntlet of opponents to come after.

With that in mind, is it possible that Real have been starting to turn the corner and are peaking at just the right time? Heading into the derby, Real had won four of their last five in the league to move into first place; as mentioned earlier, they also finished the league phase of the Champions League with three wins in a row. So many times over the years we’ve seen Real ramp it up and come into form down the final stretch of the season. This could easily be the case once again.

It’s astonishing to think that even in a “down year”, Real Madrid could conceivably end up winning both La Liga and the Champions League. That said, such an outcome isn’t likely to take place with more performances like theirs against Atlético in the derby. However, by now everyone knows better than to dismiss Real way too early - after all, there’s a reason they’re the winningest football club of all time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 347: All That xG for Nothing

The latest edition of the Derby della Madonnina was a high-stakes encounter for both Milan clubs - but for different reasons. For AC Milan, this match represented an opportunity to close the gap to Juventus who are currently in fourth place in Serie A and thus occupying the last Champions League qualification berth. As for Inter Milan, a win would move them one point behind league leaders Napoli after having played one match less.

The derby ended up in a 1-1 draw - a result which left neither club satisfied. Tijjani Reijnders opened the scoring for Milan shortly before the end of the first half - a goal which came largely against the run of play. Throughout the second half, Inter continued to apply the pressure but couldn’t finish off the many goalscoring opportunities they created. Not only that - within a second-half span of just under 25 minutes, Inter struck the post thrice - once each via Yann Bisseck, Marcus Thuram, and Denzel Dumfries. Even before that, Inter had three goals waved off for offside.

It wasn’t until stoppage time when the Nerazzurri finally made their breakthrough. Substitute Bisseck sent in a cross towards the far post which Polish defender Nicola Zalewski, who had himself come off the bench as well, took on the chest in the direction of Stefan de Vrij who put it in the net from close range.

Despite eventually scoring the equalizer, Inter would certainly have been frustrated with the match’s outcome to say the least. Inter were in almost total control of the match right from opening kick-off - to have three goals ruled out for offside, then to hit the post three times is almost unheard of. Going beyond even that, Inter missed a massive opportunity to deal a significant blow to Napoli in the title race. Earlier in the day, Napoli had only managed a 1-1 draw against Roma in the Derby del Sole after Spanish full-back Angeliño scored Roma’s equalizer in stoppage time.

No team has won the Scudetto in consecutive seasons since Juve’s unprecedented run of nine league titles in a row from the 2011-12 to 2019-20 seasons; Inter themselves haven’t done it since they won five straight from 2005-06 to 2009-10. The last of those five league titles was part of their legendary Treble-winning season.

Those who have been paying close attention to Inter’s season thus far will have picked up on the fact that for a team of their calibre, they tend to get caught offside relatively frequently. This has been a major issue throughout the season and has cost them valuable points over the course of the season - including in this match against their cross-town arch-rivals. It’s an issue which even this late into the season, Inter will have to somehow resolve if they’re to seriously push Napoli and go back-to-back.

Inter didn’t sign any new players in the recently concluded mid-season transfer window. If Inter end up failing to defend their Serie A title, it’s entirely conceivable that they’ll look back on that and rue a missed opportunity. This is especially the case because during that same transfer window, Napoli sold Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, their best player, to PSG for a transfer fee of €70 million while not replacing him with anyone of note. This should have been a chance for Inter to get a leg up on their title rivals; instead, they might very well have let the chance pass them by.

That being said, there’s an obvious positive that Inter can take from this match; it’s one which has equally applied to many of their matches this season and is a big reason why they’re even in this position to begin with. Inter clearly excel at turning possession and pressure into xG; their derby xG was almost two and a half times Milan’s. It’s why they comfortably lead the league in goals scored; usually, all those high-quality chances do translate into goals. Matches like this one can be regarded as something of an outlier.

Though Inter Milan’s derby draw isn’t that severe of a blow to their title hopes on the surface, it could end up being a turning point as they not only failed to beat their arch-nemesis; Inter let Napoli off the hook as well. As the  home stretch beckons, this could have turned out to be a crucial two points dropped.

The Weekly Take, Issue 346: "El Cholo" Does It Again

Having surrendered first place in La Liga to cross-town rivals Real Madrid after losing 1-0 against Leganes, Atlético Madrid entered their Champions League match against Bayer Leverkusen not only seeking to bounce back, but also to tighten their grip on their position in the top 8 and move a step closer to automatically qualifying for the tournament’s round of 16.

Atlético did indeed pick up the win in the penultimate matchday of the tournament’s league phase, putting them in fifth place with just an away match against the already eliminated Red Bull Salzburg remaining. However, the match didn’t exactly get off to the smoothest of starts for Atlético. Pablo Barrios was sent off in the 25th minute after a harsh tackle on Nordi Mukiele. Barrios had initially been shown a yellow card; however, a subsequent VAR check revealed that the foul was more severe than what the officials had initially assumed.

Leverkusen would go on to take advantage of having an extra player on the field. In first-half stoppage time, Mukiele sent in a cross which was finished off by a Piero Hincapié header to put the German club ahead going into the interval. Atlético would then score the equalizing goal less than seven minutes after the break via Julián Alvarez before Leverkusen themselves would be reduced to 10 men. In the 76th minute, Hincapié picked up his second yellow card after fouling Giuliano Simeone on the edge of the penalty area.

Atlético’s winning goal came in the last minute of regulation time. Substitute Ángel Correa set up Alvarez who then rounded Leverkusen goalkeeper Matěj Kovář before putting the ball into the empty net to finish off the 2-1 victory. It was Atlético’s fourth consecutive Champions League win and put them in a very strong position with just one matchday of the league phase left.

It has often been said that more than any other top team in European football today, Atlético embody their head coach’s tactical philosophy. This was on full display against Leverkusen as in front of a passionate home crowd, Diego Simeone had Atlético playing as the fullest expression of his inimitable (and somewhat divisive) strategic approach. Atlético had just 30% of the possession and took only five shots throughout the match; they also completed well under a third of all the completed passes played by either team.

Admittedly, Atlético once again carried out their share of the “dark arts” - but this has, somewhat controversially, always been a core tenet of this Atlético team under "El Cholo". Despite opposing teams and fans railing against it every now and again, Simeone has always been unapologetic about it. Time and again over the years, Atlético have essentially psyched out and harassed their opponents into a loss - and this was, in several ways, what again happened in the match against Leverkusen.

Ever since taking over at Atlético in 2011, Simeone has taken the club to its most successful era ever and from day one has instilled a tactical setup involving deep defending and counter-attacking play - almost the exact opposite of the free-flowing, visually appealing football advocated by many other coaches. To some neutrals, this has made Atlético almost unwatchable; however, the results speak for themselves and this was once again the case against Leverkusen as Simeone’s opposite number Xabi Alonso, for all that he’s already achieved in his short yet impressive coaching career, had absolutely no answer for the Argentine.

To prevail over Simeone’s Atlético team, it’s not enough to merely have the personnel and the tactics. This is a team which deliberately sets out to get into opponents’ heads - and against the unprepared, this often works. While certainly frustrating to play against and for many, to watch as well, there’s no question that it clearly works.

Whatever one may think of him, Diego Simeone again proved why he’s one of the greatest coaches of the modern era. Now in his 14th season at the Metropolitano, Simeone has achieved a level of success at Atlético Madrid that very few could ever have - and the reality is this: if he had never come in with the approach that he always has, Atlético would never have emerged as the clear third-biggest club in Spain, only behind Real and Barcelona.

The Weekly Take, Issue 345: A Missed Opportunity - Perhaps a Definitive One

 AC Milan’s away match against Juventus represented an opportunity for the Rossoneri to claw back some of their deficit to fourth place in the race for the last Champions League spot from Serie A; it also gave Milan a chance to deal a blow to their opponents’ chance of making the top four and thus qualifying for next season’s Champions League.

Instead, Milan succumbed to a 2-0 loss against the Bianconeri. Both of Juve’s goals came within a five-minute span in the second half. In the 59th minute, Nico González set up Belgian winger Samuel Mbangula whose shot bounced off the foot of Milan full-back Emerson on its way into the back of the net. Not long after that, Milan midfielder Youssouf Fofana lost possession in midfield, granting Khéphren Thuram to put substitute Timothy Weah through on goal with just Fikayo Tomori to beat - and the American did just that before putting his shot into the bottom corner and clinch the win for Juve.

After having fired previous head coach Paulo Fonseca on December 29 and hiring Sérgio Conceição the next day, many might have expected the usual upturn in form that usually comes with a new coaching hire. This, however, has so far not even been close to what has happened. Despite winning the Supercoppa Italiana - which isn’t even a major title - Conceição’s coaching debut in Serie A after having been at the helm of Porto for seven seasons has been off to a slow start.

Though it’s still very early in his current stint at the San Siro, early signs seem to show that Conceição still doesn’t quite “get it”. The main issue so far has most likely been his squad rotation. While it might be true that Conceição might not have been aware of this quite yet, the fact remains that the recent form decline of players such as Emerson and Fofana can likely be tied to fatigue. Part of Fonseca’s downfall was how he burned out some of Milan’s players by not rotating the squad as regularly as he should have; while there’s still time for Conceição to figure this out, it’s needless to say that this isn’t how things ought to have started for him.

With the January transfer window ending soon, it’s imperative that Milan do something about their squad depth - especially in midfield and up front. As of right now, Milan quite simply don’t have the depth of personnel at the level needed to make a legitimate top-four push. The match against Juve made this fact obvious as all four of Milan’s substitutes were all but completely ineffective, contributing essentially nothing of note.

Beyond that, Milan have to seriously start considering the futures of players such as Fofana, Yunus Musah, Ismaël Bennacer, and Tammy Abraham who are unlikely to be worth keeping around for the long term. It’s become increasingly obvious that none of them are of the calibre needed of squad regulars if Milan are to seriously contend for a Champions League berth next season. Milan have been linked with players such as Saba Goglichidze, Stephen Eustaquio, Marcus Rashford, and Samuele Ricci - certainly not names which move the needle in any notable way. Unless Milan can somehow pull off a significant signing out of seemingly nowhere before the transfer window ends, climbing into the top four by season’s end seems unlikely.

Among the players mentioned, Abraham deserves particular scrutiny. Against Juve, Milan were largely devoid of any output up front, managing just three shots on target. As the starting centre-forward stepping in for the injured Álvaro Morata, Abraham did not even attempt a single shot and was nothing more than a bystander for almost the whole match. The Englishman has become a mere shell of the player who had a breakout season at Roma just three years ago and who appeared to be set for a solid run of at least five to six years as a high-level striker. At this point, Abraham has become a liability and might not even have what it takes to even be a regular substitute.

AC Milan’s window to salvage their season is starting to close - and if they do end up missing out on the Champions League for the first time since, one has to wonder if Conceição will still be in the dugout when next season starts.

The Weekly Take, Issue 344: The Rut Deepens

Any thoughts that Borussia Dortmund might return from the Bundesliga’s mid-season break a completely changed team from the one seen before it - a team which hadn’t shown even the slightest bit of consistency and stability and had thus fallen behind in the chase for a top-four spot and a berth in next season’s Champions League - were swiftly put to rest following their match against Bayer Leverkusen.

Reigning Bundesliga champions Leverkusen raced out to an early 2-0 lead with Nathan Tella and Patrik Schick getting their names on the scoresheet within the first eight minutes of the match. Shortly after, Dortmund would halve the deficit when Jamie Gittens took advantage of Robert Andrich’s misplayed clearance to put it in from close range. Seven minutes later, Schick would score his second, ensuring that Leverkusen’s two-goal lead would be restored heading into half-time.

Dortmund were handed a late lifeline when in the 79th minute, Edmond Tapsoba fouled Julien Duranville in the box. Serhou Guirassy stepped forward to convert the penalty; however, that would be as close as Dortmund would come. With this latest loss, Die Schwarzgelbe have now won just one of their last five league matches and including this one, none of their last three at home.

To be fair to Dortmund, this was always going to be a difficult encounter following the personnel issues they’d experienced. Six players missed the match for various reasons including three of Dortmund’s usual starting back four. That being said, even most of Dortmund’s regular starters certainly looked out of sorts throughout the first half and only began to come to life after the break with players such as Maximilian Beier, Felix Nmecha, and Gregor Kobel having underwhelming showings at Signal Iduna Park. Notably, backup right-back Yan Couto was arguably Dortmund’s best player against Leverkusen - a clear indictment on the rest of the squad’s level of play not just in this match, but in general over the course of the season.

Another point that has to be addressed concerns Gittens. The Englishman is one of world football’s rising stars and at just 20, appears to have sky-high potential. He was one of the relatively few Dortmund players to have a solid performance against Leverkusen and is very possibly already Dortmund’s best player. Gittens’ rise makes it even more crucial for Dortmund to qualify for next season’s Champions League - should they fail to do so, there’s a very real possibility that the Berkshire-born winger will leave the club in the coming off-season. Gittens has already been linked with a move to several major clubs including, much to the dismay of Dortmund’s fanbase, arch-rivals Bayern Munich. That would unquestionably be a nightmare scenario for Dortmund; however, it’s one which might actually be realistic at this point.

Once again, the elephant in the room has to be addressed as well: for how long will Dortmund persist with Nuri Şahin in the dugout? Ever since accepting the position as Dortmund’s head coach this past off-season, the Turk has shown almost nothing but sheer incompetence. Once again, he fumbled the tactical setup and substitutions; with just about anyone else coaching, this could easily have been a winnable game.

At this point, it’s obvious that Dortmund’s ownership and front office are only keeping Şahin around for sentimental reasons - as a player, he was a club icon who spent ten and a half seasons at Dortmund, making 223 league appearances for the club. However, the fans in general ran out of patience months ago - it’s obvious by now that the longer Şahin stays in the position, the worse things will get for Dortmund. It’s long past time for the club to rip off the bandage, fire Şahin, and reset.

This isn’t yet an unsalvageable season for Borussia Dortmund, though. They still do have a realistic chance of making the top four in the league; they could also finish in the top eight of the league phase of the Champions League, allowing them to go straight into the round of 16. However, the way this season has gone so far, it isn’t particularly likely that either - let alone both - will end up happening. There can be no question that right now, Dortmund are headed in the wrong direction.