The Weekly Take, Issue 311: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow - So Who's Next?

With the domestic European football league season now in the books, there’s a clear theme at the close of the campaign: major coaching vacancies across European leagues. This volume of turnover in the dugouts, especially at this level, is something which almost never takes place.

Perhaps the most notable vacancy of all has already been filled. It’s already been confirmed that Arne Slot will leave Feyenoord to take over from Jürgen Klopp at Liverpool. Of course, it’ll be almost impossible for Slot to even come close to living up to the standard that his German predecessor set over a legendary nine-year stint; it’s close to certain that Liverpool will thus experience a significant decline next season.

Beyond Anfield, however, the carousel is at full speed. Recently, in a move that stunned the football world, Vincent Kompany accepted the job at Bayern Munich despite the fact that his time at Burnley had finished with the Belgian presiding over the Lancashire club’s relegation. On the surface, there appears to be no conceivable reason whatsoever as to why Bayern would hire someone like Kompany who’s achieved absolutely nothing of note over his brief coaching career thus far. There is, of course, a possibility that Kompany will end up defying the critics and putting together a solid season - but as of right now, let’s just say that no one would be surprised if he were to be fired by January or February 2025.

Next, we’ll look at Barcelona where Xavi has been fired after failing to defend the La Liga title. He will be replaced by Hansi Flick. Compared to Bayern’s hiring of Kompany, this, on the other hand, seems to be a much less questionable hire. Flick took Bayern to the Treble in 2020 for the only time in the club’s storied history. However, one blot on Flick’s résumé is his time in charge of the German national team during which Germany were knocked out of the World Cup’s group stage for the second tournament in succession. That being said, Die Mannschaft were at that point at their lowest ebb. Flick might very well be exactly who Barça need in order to reclaim the league title - and perhaps make a deep Champions League run as well.

How about Juventus? In a stunning turn of events, the Turin club fired Massimiliano Allegri despite victory in the Coppa Italia final - according to the club, Allegri was supposedly fired for his conduct throughout the course of the match. However, emphasis here has to be on the word “supposedly” - there’s been much speculation that the Bianconeri had already agreed to a deal with current Bologna head coach Thiago Motta who would be slated to take over at the beginning of next season. Though not confirmed, some view the incident during the Coppa final as nothing more than a convenient excuse for Juve to expedite the process.

Manchester United remain in a “will they or won’t they” state of limbo regarding the firing of Erik ten Hag. The Dutchman would almost certainly have lost his job had United lost the FA Cup final to Manchester City. Instead, ten Hag masterminded one of the most remarkable upset victories in the tournament’s recent history and potentially earned himself another chance by doing so. If that, however, ended up being insufficient to keep ten Hag around, he would likely be replaced by either Kieran McKenna of Ipswich Town or…

…the recently-fired Mauricio Pochettino. The Argentine’s ill-fated year at Chelsea ended with a whimper as the Blues could only watch while United snatched their Europa League spot by winning the FA Cup. In recent years, the Chelsea job has become borderline radioactive. That being said, three names have been mentioned regarding who’s taking over in the Stamford Bridge dugout - McKenna as well as Enzo Maresca of Leicester City or Brighton & Hove Albion’s Roberto De Zerbi. While none of these names will really be expected to move the needle by much, stranger things have happened.

When it comes to hiring a club’s next coach or firing the current one, so much has to be taken into account. The wrong call can stymie the club’s progress for years. All the clubs mentioned here now stand at a crossroads. The decision they each make will shape not just next season, but the next few after it as well.

The Weekly Take, Issue 310: "The Normal One" Signs Off

In October 2015, Liverpool’s situation could only be described as dire. Coached by Brendan Rodgers up to that point, the Northern Irishman was fired almost immediately after a 1-1 draw against Everton that left the Reds in 10th place in the Premier League. Rodgers would be replaced by Jürgen Klopp who’d recently concluded a highly successful seven-year stint at the helm of Borussia Dortmund - and the rest would be history.

Klopp’s tenure at Anfield actually didn’t start off all that well. The German wasn’t handed all that much to work with when he first stepped into the Anfield dugout - and the results bore that out. Liverpool finished the season in eighth place in the league, failing to qualify for even the next season’s Europa League. However, after that, one of the greatest eras in Liverpool’s storied history would begin.

Over the next eight seasons, Liverpool would finish in the top four of the league every season bar one, averaged 82 points per season in league play, and reached the Champions League final thrice. Along the way, Liverpool would win the Premier League in 2020, the FA Cup in 2022, and most importantly of all, the Champions League in 2019 - an achievement that once and for all solidified Klopp’s position as one of the greatest coaches of all time.

The difference between pre-Klopp and post-Klopp Liverpool is truly stark. Prior to Klopp’s hiring, the Merseyside club appeared devoid of any direction or plan. Having finished in the top four of the league just once over the prior six seasons, Liverpool appeared to be in genuine danger of fading into irrelevance. However, that all changed on the very day that Klopp took over.

Even though the results didn’t come right away, Klopp quickly impressed the Liverpool fanbase who noticed at once that things already felt different. Klopp brought a combination of tactical mastery, control over the team’s internal matters, and just general “vibes” that hadn’t been seen at Anfield since Liverpool’s prior heydays from decades ago.

Klopp’s three-year Liverpool peak spanning from the 2017-18 to 2019-20 seasons is among the highest in modern football history - especially when accounting for the fact that Liverpool really did that without being the wealthiest of clubs. Over those three seasons, Klopp had Liverpool punching way above their weight - evidenced by the following: two Champions League finals (winning one), one Premier League title and one second-place finish, and an average of 90 points in the league per season. Klopp himself was twice awarded The Best FIFA Men’s Coach; these accolades came in 2019 and 2020.

Just as he did at Dortmund, Klopp turned many Liverpool players into bona fide superstars and even all-time greats. Before becoming part of Klopp’s Liverpool team, very few would’ve ever thought that the likes of Sadio Mané, Virgil van Dijk, Alisson, and of course Mohamed Salah who eventually went on to become probably the greatest player to ever put on that iconic red jersey would’ve reached the heights that they did.

As the door closes on the Klopp era at Liverpool, the question of where he stands with regard to the history of Liverpool coaches has to be posed. With everything taken into account, Klopp is only second to Bob Paisley. Paisley’s six league titles and three European Cups were always going to be a near-impossible task to overhaul. However, it’s clear that Klopp has surpassed all of the rest of them, especially given the relative lack of resources he’d been working with.

Next season, Klopp will be replaced by Arne Slot who will leave Feyenoord after three years at the Rotterdam club. Unfortunately for Liverpool fans, the reality is that in spite of Slot’s best efforts, Liverpool will almost certainly suffer a decline next season. Part of that will have to do with the intense pressure on Slot and how he’ll handle replacing one of the greatest to ever do it. Another part, of course, will be because while Slot is no scrub by any means, he’s not even close to someone who’s basically a consensus top 10 coach of all time.

Considering where Liverpool were before Jürgen Klopp took over, one wonders what would have become of them had someone else been hired. Instead, thanks to Klopp, Liverpool fans got to witness the club’s rebirth as they once again asserted their status as a powerhouse of English football.

There’ll never be another like him.

 

The Weekly Take, Issue 309: Capping Off a Remarkable Turnaround

With the Premier League season coming to a close, Aston Villa all but clinched a spot in next season’s Champions League after coming back from two goals behind to claim a share of the points against Liverpool. Having picked up a crucial 3-3 draw, another draw in their final league match against Crystal Palace will almost definitely be all Villa need owing to their vastly superior goal difference in comparison to that of Tottenham Hotspur. They’re primed to finish in the top four for the first time since the 1995-96 season.

Villa certainly didn’t get off to a good start. Goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez scored an own goal to put Liverpool a goal ahead in just the second minute. The Argentinian bobbled Harvey Elliott’s cross, fumbling what should’ve been a relatively simple catch. Ten minutes later, Youri Tielemans scored Villa’s equalizer after being set up by Ollie Watkins before Cody Gakpo would restore Liverpool’s lead before halftime.

Shortly after the break, Liverpool made it 3-1 after centre-back Jarell Quansah scored his first career Premier League goal. As time ticked down, it looked as though Liverpool would be leaving Villa Park with all three points. However, in the final five minutes of regulation time, substitute Jhon Durán scored Villa’s second and third within a three-minute span. The Colombian striker could not have picked a better time to net just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season.

There are several key reasons why the Midlands club have emerged as a genuine force, but undoubtedly the most important of these is Unai Emery. Ever since replacing Steven Gerrard as Villa’s head coach in November 2022, Emery has taken Villa to a level the club hasn’t seen in nearly three decades. When Emery took over, Villa were 16th in the league, in danger of relegation, and appeared to be in for another difficult season.

When Emery started out at Villa, his stock was at its highest point - largely thanks to his achievements during the previous season with Villarreal, capped off by a stunning Champions League upset victory over Bayern Munich. In the almost two seasons since then, however, the Basque coach has arguably topped that. Taking Villa from near-relegation to a Champions League spot in such a short timespan is arguably his greatest feat to date in an underrated coaching career of 20 years that has included four Europa League titles.

Transfer-wise, Villa haven’t done this with any big-name, splashy, expensive signings. This is a carefully-built team which doesn’t have any genuine superstars (though one could make a case for Martínez being one). This is made even more impressive by the fact that many of these signings had initially seemed to have been overpays for players then at smaller clubs - but eventually vindicating Villa who saw these players’ true potential way before anyone else did.

Somewhat ironically, two of the players who have been among Villa’s key acquisitions over the past several years would’ve experienced perhaps the greatest single season ever put together by any football club ever. Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey both left Bayer Leverkusen, who under Xabi Alonso are now just three matches away from completing a season unbeaten in all competitions. However, that takes nothing away from the impact they’ve had at Villa this season.

Finally, we come to Ollie Watkins. At the age of 28, the Devon-born striker is having a breakout season with 19 goals and 13 assists in the league. Watkins is a lock to be selected for England’s Euro 2024 squad. Heading into this season, there was absolutely no indication that a jump like this was coming. Yet, now that the season is coming to its end, Watkins has established himself as arguably the league’s second-best centre-forward, only behind Manchester City’s Erling Haaland.

There’s no reason why Watkins can’t keep it going heading into next season. With the team around him, the tactical setup, and perhaps even psychologically boosted by a Euro 2024 title to his name, it isn’t out of the question that Watkins separates himself from the pack and pulls well clear of Alexander Isak and Dominic Solanke next season.

There’s no question that Aston Villa have easily surpassed all expectations this season. Not only that - everything is set up nicely for Villa to keep things going next season and again make the top four. After years of struggle, things haven’t been this good at Villa for a long time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 308: Same As Every Year

This post now makes it back-to-back posts about a similar topic - but in both cases, the main talking point is the same that it’s been for years with no end in sight.

The first leg of one of this season’s Champions League semifinals saw Borussia Dortmund at home against Paris Saint-Germain. The narratives surrounding both clubs heading into the match could not have been more different. With this run to the semifinals, Dortmund were already playing with house money. Almost nobody expected the Schwarzgelben to have made it this far.

In contrast, PSG arrived in the semifinals with a reputation as European football’s perennial chokers. This was just the third time over the past 12 seasons that the Parisian club had made the final four of European football’s showpiece tournament; on top of that, they had been knocked out in the round of 16 in five of the last seven seasons. Heading into the match as favorites to reach the final, this was PSG’s chance to silence the doubters and for once actually rise to the occasion under the greatest pressure.

Instead, PSG once again did “PSG things”. A PSG team that should’ve, at least on paper, been too much for their German opponents to handle succumbed to a 1-0 loss and have one foot out of the tournament’s exit door. Niclas Füllkrug’s first-half goal put Dortmund one draw away from the club’s third-ever Champions League final and first since losing to arch-rivals Bayern Munich in 2013.

Despite the expected skill gap between both teams, almost no one was even slightly surprised by this result. It seems as though every year, PSG find new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Not even adding the greatest player who’s ever lived could do anything to help - in fact, when Leo Messi played at the Parc des Princes, PSG’s “aura” somehow managed to “infect” Messi in what proved to be the only significant blot on the GOAT’s career.

On top of that, it must be kept in mind that the only season in which PSG made it to the final was the 2019-20 campaign. This, of course, was the season interrupted by Covid-19 and its associated lockdowns. Thus, that season’s Champions League became a single-elimination tournament instead of having the two-legged fixtures which typically feature throughout the knockout rounds. Add to that the pandemic restrictions that kept crowds away from stadiums and it makes even more sense - PSG would only be able to reach the final in outlier circumstances. Had that season’s Champions League proceeded as per usual, it’s almost certain that PSG wouldn’t have made the final.

To make matters worse, this season is club icon Kylian Mbappé’s last at PSG; he will sign for Real Madrid during the coming off-season. Considering the fact that PSG are likely to fade into irrelevance without Mbappé on board, this was likely PSG’s last chance to make a serious Champions League title push. A match which PSG should’ve approached with the mindset of “it’s now or never - we have to make this count” while being expected to win without too much difficulty ought to have been a scenario that played into their favour. But of course, it was the same thing that happens just about every single year.

Despite the billions that PSG’s Qatari owners have poured into the club and all the stars that have come and gone over that time, once again: “PSG gonna PSG”. In fact, at this point PSG’s history of chokes on the big stage hangs over the club like a dark cloud. Even their quarterfinal comeback victory over Barcelona needed a red card on Barça defender Ronald Araújo in order to happen.

A team with PSG’s roster would usually be expected to overturn the one-goal deficit in the second leg and make it to the final at Wembley. However, with Paris Saint-Germain, it’s a case of “they were who we thought they were”. Virtually no one apart from the club’s staunchest homers expects them to do so - and for good reason. Likely getting knocked out of the tournament by a team some didn’t even expect to make it out of the group stage will be the latest entry on PSG’s illustrious Champions League lowlight reel.

The Weekly Take, Issue 307: Of Course They Did

At this point, it’s not even remotely surprising anymore.

The latest iteration of the North London derby had both teams entering with something on the line. For Tottenham Hotspur, this match was a clear opportunity to make a further push for a top-four spot and gain ground on Aston Villa in the chase for the last berth in next season’s Champions League. As for Arsenal, a win would put them one step closer to a first Premier League title in 20 years.

This match was just about decided by half-time with Arsenal entering the interval with a 3-0 lead. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg’s own goal put the Gunners one goal ahead in the 15th minute before Bukayo Saka soon extended Arsenal’s lead. Seven minutes before the break, Kai Havertz continued his recent hot streak, adding another goal to put Arsenal three goals ahead.

Remarkably, Arsenal nearly ended up blowing their three-goal lead. After the break, Cristian Romero’s goal kept Tottenham’s flagging hopes alive. Then, with three minutes of regulation time remaining, Declan Rice fouled Ben Davies in the penalty area, allowing Son Heung-min to step forward and notch his 16th league goal of the season. Although Spurs were largely in control of the match throughout the second half, their absolute disasterclass of a first half proved to be too much to overcome.

With this loss, Tottenham’s hopes of a top-four finish are no longer in their own hands. Even if they win out (which would, incidentally, necessitate a victory over Manchester City), if Villa do likewise, Spurs would miss out on next season’s Champions League.

In the early portion of this season, things look at though for once, it would be different at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. After Ange Postecoglou accepted his first coaching position in a major European league over the off-season, it looked as though he had transformed the club entirely even following the departure of club legend Harry Kane to Bayern Munich. With eight wins in their first 10 league matches, Tottenham were in first place and in red-hot form. To use a common metaphor, “the vibes were immaculate”.

Then, as has been so typical of Tottenham over the years, the wheels began to fall off. The losses piled up and Tottenham continued to slide down the league table. Off-season signings James Maddison and Micky van de Ven, who both started the season absolutely tearing up the league, found this level of play unsustainable and regressed to the mean.

There is a reason that “lads, it’s Tottenham” has been a meme for years. Even when it seems as though they have everything going for them, they’ve inevitably faltered under the pressure and failed to deliver. Over the past four seasons, Tottenham only managed to finish in the top four once despite having a squad that could have contended for it every season. To make matters worse, Kane scored 88 league goals over that period, was the Premier League’s top scorer in the 2020-21 season, and almost single-handedly dragged Tottenham to respectability again and again.

In hindsight, Tottenham’s early-season success has clearly been shown to be primarily psychologically-driven. On so many occasions, the hiring of a new head coach leads to an immediate uptick in the team’s results - regardless of the impact of the coach’s actual input. This is because the team believes “there’s been a change, so something must be happening” - which translates into their play and makes them play better. That’s exactly what happened in the period right after Postecoglou took over.

Even if Villa don’t win out, it’s unlikely that Tottenham will either. Having to play against a City team who could potentially use that match to move into position to claim an unprecedented fourth consecutive league title is just about the most difficult match-up possible.

This season was supposed to be different for Tottenham Hotsput. New coach, Richarlison having a bounce-back season after a horrendous 2022-23 campaign in which he managed just one league goal, contributions from multiple new signings, the permanent acquisition of Dejan Kulusevski, and even a new captain with Son taking up the armband. It really did seem as though they were about to transition seamlessly into the post-Kane era. But as has invariably been the case, Tottenham have once again gotten in their own heads and almost certainly blown it again.

The Weekly Take, Issue 306: Sputtering Down the Final Stretch

 The latest edition of El Clásico had a lot on the line. For Barcelona, a win would cut Real Madrid’s lead at the top of La Liga to five points with six matches to be played—giving Barça at least a slight chance of perhaps going on to overhaul their arch-rivals from the capital. As for Real, it was an opportunity to deal the finishing blow in the title race; a win would extend their lead over Barça at the top of La Liga to an almost-insurmountable margin of 11 points.

It took less than six minutes for Barça to open the scoring; Andreas Christensen found the net via a header from Raphinha’s corner. Real would then equalize via a controversial penalty earned by Lucas Vázquez, who was brought down in the box by Pau Cubarsí. Against the belief of many who felt that Vázquez baited the contact by Cubarsí, the referee handed Real a penalty kick which Vinícius duly converted.

After the half-time break, Barça retook the lead when substitute Fermín López finished off the follow-up after Andriy Lunin saved Lamine Yamal’s initial shot. This, however, would be matched four minutes later—this time around, it was Vázquez himself who scored. As the match entered stoppage time and it looked as though a draw would be on the cards, Jude Bellingham scored Real’s winning goal, adding another highlight to his Ballon d’Or case.

Barça, on the other hand, capped off a truly miserable week after having been knocked out of the Champions League by Paris Saint-Germain—and that too after somehow being “Remontada”’d by the Champions League’s perennial choke artists. In general, this entire season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Blaugrana. They’re even at risk of losing second place in the league to fellow Catalan club and this season’s surprise package Girona.

Perhaps the most obvious point of note pertaining to Barça’s failures this season has been their struggles in the transfer market. Largely as a result of the club’s financial difficulties, the only off-season signing that Barça made who moved the needle even the slightest bit was a 32-year-old İlkay Gündoğan signed on a free transfer from Manchester City.

After what’s happened this season coupled with those financial issues, it will be even more difficult for Barça to bring any major names to Camp Nou in the coming off-season. As of right now, the only player of any note to have been linked with an imminent move to Barça is RB Leipzig attacking midfielder Dani Olmo - but even then, if they were to sign him, he would likely be a replacement for Frenkie de Jong who is expected by many to leave Catalonia in the coming off season; Bayern Munich have reportedly taken much interest in signing the Dutchman.

The club’s lack of clarity over the coaching situation hasn’t helped matters at all. Earlier this season, Xavi said that he would be leaving the Camp Nou dugout after just over two years and a half in charge. However, recent reports indicate that there’s a possibility that he might reverse his decision - and to make matters worse, Barça don’t seem to have any successor in mind.

On top of that, Real are now clearly in Barça’s heads. Barça have now lost back-to-back La Liga El Clásico matches by way of a Bellingham stoppage-time goal. Again and again, Barça have lacked the mental fortitude and resolve to deliver against their arch-rivals while Real have dug deep and found something more within themselves - and that’s arguably the biggest reason why the gap now is as large as it is.

If there’s a silver lining for Barça, however, it has to be the latest products of La Masia. The greatest football academy in the world has done it again - this time via Gavi, López, Pedri, Cubarsí, and of course, Yamal who arguably has future Ballon d’Or potential. However, the “metagame” has changed; these days it’s next to impossible to reach the pinnacle of world football with a nucleus that’s primarily home-grown.

At this point it’s a vicious cycle. Barcelona’s financial issues, lack of stability, inability to attract other top players, and declined overall performance have made them a far less appealing destination. While the next off-season will certainly be crucial, it’s almost certain that for Barça, the road back to the top will be a difficult one indeed.

The Weekly Take, Issue 305: A Huge Chance Squandered?

If ever there was an opportunity for Arsenal to establish themselves as a genuine contender to win this season’s Champions League, the first leg of their quarterfinal fixture against Bayern Munich was exactly that. With their Bavarian opponents at their weakest point in more than a decade and struggling for form ahead of their trip to the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal had a clear chance to capitalize and take an important lead going into the second leg in Munich.

Instead, the Gunners came up short as they only managed a 2-2 draw. Arsenal actually got off to a strong start with Bukayo Saka opening the scoring in the 12th minute, only for Serge Gnabry to score against his former club six minutes later and bring the score to 1-1. Then, as he had so often done during his legendary 12-year stint at Arsenal’s North London arch-rivals Tottenham Hotspur, Harry Kane put his name on the scoresheet - this time via a penalty earned by Leroy Sané. Substitute Leandro Trossard would later score Arsenal’s equalizer to ensure that Arsenal would not enter the second leg a goal behind.

For Arsenal, this result can’t be described as anything other than a blown chance. Having a home match against one of the pre-tournament favorites who happened to be in turmoil on and off the field just then while Arsenal themselves lead the Premier League heading into the home stretch as they edge closer to a first league title in 20 years should’ve been exactly what they needed to get the jump on Bayern ahead of the second leg.

Instead, for large portions of the match, Arsenal were clearly outplayed. Arsenal’s back five, goalkeeper David Raya included, were rather shaky for most of the match and could certainly have done more to prevent Gnabry from having the goalscoring opportunity of which he took full advantage. In addition, Saliba’s foul on Sané to concede the penalty capped off a sequence of poor defensive play, particularly from Brazilian centre-back Gabriel.

Up until Arsenal brought in some of their substitutes, things weren’t going so well on the offensive front either apart from Saka. Kai Havertz looked more like the player who consistently underwhelmed during his three years at Chelsea than the player he’s been this season - someone who’s having a “comeback” season in what’s been his best year since leaving Bayer Leverkusen in 2020. As for Gabriel Martinelli, Bayern’s defense had him in their pocket from opening kick-off until he was unsurprisingly yanked in the 65th minute.

The biggest positive that Arsenal can take from this match regards their strategic and tactical adjustments. Mikel Arteta easily outcoached his Bayern counterpart Thomas Tuchel (to be fair, that isn’t a difficult thing to do these days), bringing in Trossard and Gabriel Jesus at just the right times and ultimately ensuring that Arsenal would head to Germany on level footing. The two substitutes would go on to combine for Arsenal’s equalizing goal.

Spearheaded by Arteta who at one point was almost fired from his position, Arsenal’s turnaround over the past two seasons has been impressive indeed. However, Arsenal’s sub-par performance on the biggest stage when the moment arrived highlighted how far Arsenal still have to go to become bona fide Champions League title contenders. The only consolation for Arsenal is the fact that this is the first leg, allowing them to regroup and potentially beat Bayern at the Allianz Arena.

Based on their respective levels of play throughout this season, one would expect Arsenal to take the win in the second leg and advance to the Champions League semifinals for the first time since the 2008-09 season. However, the first leg clearly showed that while Arsenal are definitely capable of beating Bayern away, the real question is if they will have the mental wherewithal to do so as well. It also has to be mentioned that fatigue could play a role - unlike Arsenal, Bayern are already out of contention for their domestic league title and thus can afford to rotate their squad to keep their best players fresh for the second leg.

Of course, with the aggregate score still tied at 2-2, Arsenal can’t be written off by any means. However, should they lose to Bayern in the second leg and exit the Champions League at the quarterfinal stage, this first-leg draw will undoubtedly be regarded as a golden opportunity blown.