The Weekly Take, Issue 199: The Beginning of the End

First and foremost, to any Ukrainians who might be reading this right now, I wish only the best for you. I can barely imagine what you must be going through - to be at constant risk of losing your home, your family, your life simply because of one man's insatiable bloodlust and greed.

Now then, on to the post itself.

Earlier this week, the entire world was left reeling by Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. In response to this act of senseless violence, sanctions against Russia swiftly took effect from all corners of the world in virtually every sphere. This was true of football as well. The UEFA Champions League final was relocated from Saint Petersburg to Paris, while Manchester United and Schalke cut ties with Aeroflot and Gazprom respectively; both are companies with direct links to the Russian government.

Of course, this means that one club which deserves a closer examination is Chelsea, as they are owned by Roman Abramovich, a Russian billionaire who has close ties with Putin. Regardless of what Abramovich chooses to do next, it seems inevitable that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought about the beginning of the end of the London club's time at the top table of European club football.

If Abramovich chooses to sell Chelsea as a result of the ever-increasing scrutiny upon him, Chelsea are likely to fall into disarray. Despite being endowed with far more wealth than the likes of Premier League rivals Liverpool, Manchester United, and Arsenal, the Blues are only on par with the latter two and are firmly behind Liverpool. Without the enormous amounts of money which Abramovich provides, Chelsea will almost certainly spiral into oblivion and fall well behind their rivals with almost no hope of a return to the top level.

If Abramovich does not sell Chelsea, the money will dry up anyway. As has been mentioned, sponsors will be far more difficult to come by in the future owing to Abramovich's links to Putin. The longer Abramovich remains as Chelsea's owner, the more toxic the club's brand will become, making it even less likely for sponsors to flock to the club.

In either case, regardless of what Abramovich chooses to do with Chelsea, there will almost certainly be major negative repercussions regarding the club's finances and subsequently quality of play; this decline could very well be a terminal one.

The psychological impact on Chelsea's players must also be mentioned. Due to the club's indirect links to Putin, Chelsea can expect a hostile reception in almost every away match for the next several years. This might not necessarily be a problem if Chelsea's star player were someone who relishes playing the role of the villain. Think of the likes of Sergio Ramos, Cristiano Ronaldo, Zlatan Ibrahimović, Luis Suárez - there are many players who fit that description. However, Chelsea's ace is N'Golo Kanté. Kanté is someone who is the exact antithesis of the players described; though he is arguably the greatest defensive midfielder ever, Kanté does not seem to be the type who would be comfortable with the villain tag which would be inevitably handed to him.

Furthemore, many players might now be reluctant or even unwilling to join Chelsea during transfer windows. They might fear having their reputations sullied and thus becoming less marketable by joining a club with indirect ties to the Putin regime. Some players who might happen to be friends with one or more Ukrainian players could even outright refuse to even consider joining Chelsea lest they cause irreparable damage to their friendships with those players. Put it all together and one can see that the future looks very bleak indeed at Stamford Bridge.

In a sense, karma has come back to Chelsea. In a true instance of poetic justice, the club whose greatest period of success came on the back of ill-gotten gains now might meet its end as a top team because of a much more powerful person's quest for further ill-gotten gains.

Certainly, the football-related aspects are not even close to the most important facets of the invasion; after all, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has almost certainly kickstarted a second Cold War which may last for decades just as the first did. That being said, when this invasion is considered through a footballing lens, Chelsea are undoubtedly the club likely to lose the most as a result.

 

The Weekly Take, Issue 198: A Legacy-Defining Title Run in the Making?

The resumption of the Champions League saw Liverpool head to the San Siro to take on Inter Milan in the first leg of the tournament's round of 16. Liverpool all but secured a spot in the quarterfinals by beating Inter 2-0. Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah both scored in the closing stages of the match to give the Reds a commanding lead prior to the second leg at Anfield.

The scoreline arguably does not do justice to how superior Liverpool were in comparison to the Nerazzurri. Liverpool denied Inter even a single shot on target. Liverpool were also clearly superior from a tactical perspective, especially with regard to substitutions. Head coach Jürgen Klopp was on point throughout, tipping the balance of the match in Liverpool's players by sending players such as Firmino, Naby Keïta, and Jordan Henderson into the fray from off the bench.

This Champions League campaign could very well be one which goes on to establish the current Liverpool squad as one of the greatest teams of all time as well as perhaps the greatest English club side ever. Over the past four seasons, Liverpool have a Champions League title and a Premier League title as well as runner-up finishes in both while averaging 85 points per season in the league. A Champions League and Premier League double this season is certainly not out of the question, either. Domestically, Liverpool trail league leaders Manchester City by six points but have played one fewer match. A win in that additional match would see them close to within three points and give Liverpool the opportunity to overtake City when the two sides face off on April 9.

Liverpool are also among the favourites to not only reach a third Champions League final in five seasons, but possibly win the title for the seventh time in the club's history. Their main rivals for the Champions League title are City, Paris Saint-Germain, and Bayern Munich. However, PSG have become notorious for choking when the pressure is at its highest. The same is true of City, at least as far as the Champions League is concerned. That leaves Bayern. Though the Bavarian team might have no obvious weaknesses, that can also be said of Liverpool. There is no reason why the Merseysiders should not be capable of beating Bayern over two legs or even in the final.

If Liverpool were to win the double, the Liverpool squad of 2017 to the present day would insert themselves into the discussion for greatest English club team of all time. They would join Liverpool of 1976-85 and Manchester United of 2006-13 in that rarefied air. For comparison, Liverpool 1976-85 won six league titles and four European Cups. They also finished second in the league twice and were European Cup runners-up once. United 2006-13 won five league titles and finished second in the league twice; they also reached three Champions League finals, winning it all in 2008. They also made the semifinals in 2007.

Liverpool's would-be record of two league titles, a second-place finish, two Champions Leagues, and a Champions League final loss would stack up very nicely against those legendary teams. Klopp's personal legacy would also receive a massive boost; he would arguably have surpassed the likes of Pep Guardiola, Sir Alex Ferguson, and Arrigo Sacchi and thus move closer to the "Mount Rushmore" of football coaches.

And what of Salah and Sadio Mané? The duo have already established themselves as Liverpool legends, but another Champions League title or even a double would, in my opinion, see them ascend to a new level. Such a victory would mean that Salah and Mané would become the two greatest players to ever come out of Africa. With all due respect to legends like Didier Drogba, Samuel Eto'o, and Yaya Touré, it honestly wouldn't be up for debate anymore.

Over the past few seasons, Liverpool fans have been privileged to experience some of the greatest moments in the club's history. That being said, in spite of all they've accomplished in the last half-decade, it might just turn out that the crowning glory of this amazing team might just be arriving soon. Though it's no certainty by any means, one has to like their chances.

The Weekly Take, Issue 197: Stumbling Towards the Finish Line

Real Madrid's lead over Sevilla at the top of La Liga was slashed to four points after Real drew 0-0 against Villarreal. What should have been a routine victory for Los Merengues was anything but that. Despite generally being in control of the match, particularly in the second half, Real just could not close it out. Luka Jović and Gareth Bale both had shots strike the crossbar, while Serge Aurier's last-ditch block at the goal line ensured that the score would remain level at the final whistle.

Almost from the beginning of this season, Real have been expected to cruise to the league title, largely due to the struggles of Barcelona and Atlético Madrid - ordinarily their chief rivals. This has not been the case at all, however. Real's lead over second-placed Sevilla is much smaller than what most (including many of Real's fans) would have expected at this point.

Real's recent form in La Liga has certainly been a cause for worry. Real have won just three of their last seven league matches and dropped what ought to have been many easy points along the way. While they remain in the driver's seat as far as the chase for the league title is concerned, they cannot afford to become complacent as they seem to have lately. Sometimes, it almost seems as though Real expect to sleepwalk their way to a league title while exerting minimal effort; this complacency appears to be at the root of their recent slump.

As a matter of fact, the main reason why Real remain in first place in the league right now is Sevilla's own slump. Prior to Sevilla's recent 2-0 victory over Elche, the Andalusian club had drawn their preceding three league matches and thus missed a golden opportunity to overtake Real and put themselves on track for a first league title since 1946.

In any case, with Real's Champions League round of 16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain approaching, the outlook does not favour Real at all. In their current form, an away match against one of the favourites to win it all is exactly what Real did not need. I'd even go so far as to say that Real should regard a close loss in the first leg as a satisfactory result. That's how unlikely a victory seems at the moment.

While Real did have a hot start to the season, they gradually began to take their foot off the accelerator as they pulled further ahead and simply have not been able to rediscover their early-season mindset and form. Though it may be a cliché to say that "winning is a habit", that aphorism certainly seems to be true in Real's case.

There might also be a possibility that Real have been distracted by the ongoing transfer sagas surrounding Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, and their likely off-season moves to the Santiago Bernabéu. Borussia Dortmund have not been able to construct a roster which will put Haaland in contention for Champions League titles or permit the Norwegian to be a perennial Ballon d'Or contender., while Real's interest in Mbappé has been something of an open secret for several years now. These were the transfer headlines that dominated the recent January transfer window. Certainly, it wouldn't be surprising at all if that has had an effect on Real's recent lack of form.

Even if Real end up reclaiming the La Liga title which they surrendered to cross-town rivals Atlético last season, this season will likely go down as an unsatisfying one - to those within the club as well as its fans. So much more was expected of Real when this season began, especially considering the fact that Carlo Ancelotti returned to the Real dugout. During the Italian's previous stint as Real's head coach, he led Real to the Champions League title in 2014. Such an outcome, unfortunately, seems unlikely this season.

Claiming this season's La Liga title is a bare minimum for Real. Failure to do so would surely be one of the worst chokes in European football for a very long time. The way that Real have been playing, that scenario is not completely out of the question. Although they should still win the league, nothing is a certainty - especially at this level.

The Weekly Take, Issue 196: Emerging from the Pack

At the beginning of the Bundesliga season, most people assumed that the real question would not be about who would win the title or even finish second. It was generally assumed that Bayern Munich would clinch yet another league title by an enormous margin. Similarly, most expected that Borussia Dortmund would comfortably finish second, well behind Bayern but far ahead of every other team.

That assumption about Bayern has, unsurprisingly, been proven true. The Bavarian powerhouse have a nine-point lead over Dortmund and will win the league barring a collapse of truly historic proportions.

However, although Dortmund are currently in second place, their spot is by no means safe. This is especially so after the most recent Bundesliga matchday which saw Bayer Leverkusen take Dortmund completely apart in a 5-2 victory. Taking advantage of the absence of Dortmund's ace striker Erling Haaland, Leverkusen dominated proceedings from the first moments, scoring their first three goals in an 18-minute first-half span. With the victory, Die Werkself pulled to within five points of Dortmund and could conceivably surpass their fellow northwestern club by the end of the season.

Leverkusen have also begun to move clear of the chasing pack and solidify themselves in third place in the league. Even if they do not end up ahead of Dortmund in the final standings, a third-place league finish would be Leverkusen's best result in six years.

Of course, it must not go unmentioned that Leverkusen's surge this season has been aided by several external factors; the most noteworthy of these are the departure of former RB Leipzig head coach Julian Nagelsmann to Bayern Munich as well as the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Haaland's future at Dortmund. At some point, Haaland is expected to leave Signal Iduna Park for Real Madrid; this has proven to be a major distraction during Dortmund's current season.

That being said, none of this takes away anything from how impressive Leverkusen have been this season, especially relative to expectations. Leverkusen's greatest strength was on full display in their victory over Dortmund - their formidable attacking unit. Leverkusen have arguably one of the most underrated groups up front in European football. With players such as Moussa Diaby, Karim Bellarabi, Patrik Schick, and Florian Wirtz who at just 18 looks like an all-time great in the making, Leverkusen have been scoring at an elite rate this season. Their 54 goals in 21 league matches ranks them joint third alongside Dortmund in goals per match among all clubs in Europe's four major leagues.

Returning to the point about Wirtz and his potential, it could very well turn out to be the case that Leverkusen's fortunes over the next five years are contingent on Wirtz's development. It isn't often that a generational talent falls into a team's lap just like that. Now, Leverkusen find themselves in such a fortuitous situation with Wirtz and must thus make the most of their window of opportunity - especially because at some point down the line, it is highly likely that Wirtz will leave Leverkusen to join a bigger, more iconic club. That being said, if Wirtz develops into the player he seems capable of becoming, the sky is the limit for Leverkusen for as long as the German starlet remains at the BayArena.

Head coach Gerardo Seoane was not a well-known figure outside his home country of Switzerland when he accepted the position at Leverkusen at the start of this season. However, with more than half the season gone and Leverkusen looking stronger than ever, Seoane deserves plenty of credit. While this could be a case of a performance boost caused by the arrival of a new man in the dugout, what Seoane has been doing appears to be sustainable. What might be most impressive is that in spite of his general lack of experience, let alone experience coaching in a major European league, Seoane seems to have a solid grasp about what makes this team tick and how to maximize his players' abilities.

All things considered, Leverkusen's emergence from the chasing pack to challenge Dortmund should not be seen as something too far out of the ordinary. This had been building for a while now. Certainly, the real challenge lies ahead, though - that of not only maintaining their spot, but also potentially finishing second in the league ahead of Dortmund while also making a deep Europa League run.

The Weekly Take, Issue 195: A Mere Husk of His Former Self

At the conclusion of the 2021-22 mid-season, transfer window, it should be obvious that the most noteworthy signing made was the transfer of Dušan Vlahović from Fiorentina to Juventus. Juve's acquisition of the rising star from Serbia might be exactly what they need to revitalize their floundering season. At just 22 years old, Vlahović already possesses remarkable goalscoring prowess. With 38 league goals over the past one-and-a-half seasons, Vlahović appears likely to emerge as one of the best strikers of his generation. The Bianconeri's payout of €70 million to Fiorentina already seems like a remarkable bargain.

However, another notable transfer - this one on the other end of the spectrum - took place on the final day of the transfer window. Barcelona acquired Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Arsenal by way of a free transfer. Considering the Gabonese striker's stunning decline since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, it should not have come as a surprise that Aubameyang was deemed surplus to requirements at the Emirates Stadium.

The fact that Aubameyang's play has completely fallen off a cliff should not come as a surprise. At 32, the fact that Father Time has caught up to him is certainly not unusual in any way. The part which is truly shocking, however, is just how abrupt and sudden Aubameyang's decline turned out to be.

Just a season and a half ago, Aubameyang had concluded a season which saw him find the net 22 times in the Premier League while also spearheading Arsenal's victorious FA Cup campaign. He was selected as a member of that season's Premier League PFA Team of the Year as well as Arsenal's Player of the Season.

From the 2015-16 to 2019-20 seasons spanning two-and-a-half seasons at Borussia Dortmund and the same amount of time at Arsenal, Aubameyang scored an extremely impressive 170 goals in 228 matches across all competitions, including 123 in 164 league matches. At that point, it seemed as though Aubameyang could do no wrong in front of goal.

No one could have foreseen the events which were to follow. Last season, "Auba" managed just 10 league goals - his lowest tally in 12 years. He then went on to follow that up with just four in 14 league matches for Arsenal this season before the Gunners decided that they'd seen enough and sent him on his way to Catalonia.

It is exceptionally rare that a player goes from "elite" to "washed" in such a short timespan. Unfortunately, Aubameyang fits that description perfectly. It really does feel like just yesterday that Aubameyang struck terror into the hearts of defenses across the Bundesliga and Premier League as well as in continental tournaments. In his prime, Aubameyang's technical prowess, off-ball movement, and of course, his blistering speed made him one of the world's best centre-forwards for several years. During his time at Arsenal, there were occasions when Aubameyang put the team on his back and dragged some true dumpster-fire teams to unlikely victories.

Sadly, that version of Aubameyang will never be coming back. As one might expect, Aubameyang's speed was the first major element of his game to disappear. However, it was his speed which was the foundation of the rest of his playstyle. His off-ball movement was no longer as fluid as it once had been and he could neither zip past defenders to create that extra bit of space nor leave them in his dust when taking them on one-on-one any longer.

As Aubameyang begins his tenure at Barça and enters the closing stages of his career, there are many questions being asked about how he will fare at Camp Nou. However, based on the evidence on display since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Blaugrana should consider themselves fortunate that they did not spend even a cent to land Aubameyang.

There are some footballers who age like wine and some who age like milk. It should be evident by now that Aubameyang has aged like the lactose-filled beverage. For this reason, Aubameyang will likely be spending a great deal of time on the Barça bench as what seems to be a sad ending to an otherwise excellent career begins to unfold. Now, could it be possible that he may have a sudden revival at Barcelona? It could - but that outcome is highly unlikely.

The Weekly Take, Issue 194: The Empire's Collapse Is Complete

AC Milan and Juventus both dropped crucial points in their respective quests for the Serie A title and a Champions League qualification spot with a 0-0 draw in a crucial league match. It was a match which was reflective of the final score - obvious chances were rare and both teams lacked the killer touch on the offensive end. Juve can count themselves rather fortunate to have escaped San Siro with a point after failing to register even one shot on target.

Nevertheless, the result leaves Juve in fifth place in the league, 11 points behind leaders Inter Milan but having played an additional match. This means that if the season were to end today, Juve would fail to qualify for next season's Champions League. If Juve were to remain outside the top four at season's end, it would be the first time in 11 years that the Bianconeri would miss out on Europe's leading club tournament.

Juve's collapse over the past two seasons has been stunning to witness. During the period spanning the 2011-12 and 2019-20 seasons, Juve won the Serie A title every single time, often by massive margins. They also won four Coppa Italia titles and reached the final of the Champions League in 2015 and 2017, losing to Real Madrid and Barcelona respectively.

The point of origin of Juve's collapse can easily be pinpointed: the firing of former head coach Maurizio Sarri at the end of the 2019-20 season. Juve had just come off an upset loss at the hands of Lyon in the Champions League. In a move that few saw coming, Sarri was forced out of the club the very next day and replaced by Andrea Pirlo. This would prove to be a catastrophic move as in his one season in charge at Allianz Stadium, Pirlo would turn in one of the worst single-season coaching performances of the last decade. Despite inheriting a loaded team, Pirlo somehow managed to take Juve to a highly disappointing fourth-place finish in the league. He also presided over a last-16 Champions League exit and was deservedly fired at season's end.

The return of Massimiliano Allegri to the Juve dugout at the beginning of this season temporarily brought some optimism. However, it soon became clear that the problems at Juve extended far beyond the identity of the head coach. Juve stumbled out of the gates this season, dropping cheap points left, right, and centre. Despite topping their Champions League group, their upcoming round of 16 tie against Villarreal will by no means be straightforward.

Allegri's tactics in his second stint in charge of Juve have also been questionable on many occasions. His decision to deploy Adrien Rabiot as a winger has been a real head-scratcher, while his midfield pairings in his 4-4-2 formation which combine any duo of Weston McKennie, Manuel Locatelli, Rodrigo Bentancur, and Federico Bernardeschi are clearly not working. It can even be argued that the very fact that Allegri favours a 4-4-2 formation is suspect; this formation is considered to be outdated and obsolete by most.

Additionally, Juve made an inexcusable error in the transfer window of the previous off-season by failing to account for the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo. This left them with Álvaro Morata, Paulo Dybala, and Moise Kean as their primary strikers. As was so clearly shown against Milan, Juve have unsurprisingly struggled up front all season long. With the two-thirds mark of the season approaching, the Turin club have found the net a meagre 34 times over 23 league matches. To put this figure in perspective, Juve score fewer goals per league match than do clubs such as Leicester City, Valencia, 1. FC Köln, and Eintracht Frankfurt - not exactly the most distinguished of company.

It's still too early to write the obituary on Juve's season, of course. However, the way things are going, the future does not look good for Juventus at all. This doesn't just apply to the rest of this season - it could be years before Juve are once again a genuine contender for domestic or continental titles. There seems to be no end in sight to their woes.

The powerhouse that was built over so many seasons has clearly been brought down in just one. A long, long rebuild seems likely.