Thursday, October 21, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 181: The Pharaoh Reigns Supreme

Liverpool took an important step in their pursuit of a seventh UEFA Champions League title by beating Atlético Madrid 3-2 in a group-stage match. Mohamed Salah and Naby Keïta put the Reds 2-0 after just 13 minutes, but Antoine Griezmann responded with two goals of his own to bring Atlético level. Salah would later score the winning goal from the penalty spot after Mario Hermoso fouled Diogo Jota in the box.

With the victory, Liverpool moved five points clear of their Spanish opponents and all but secured first place in Group B. This will prove to be important because by coming in first, they will be much more likely to avoid a difficult opponent in the round of 16.

Salah's two goals added to what has been the hottest streak of his career - no small feat when you consider that he scored 44 goals in all competitions in the 2017-18 season; these included an almost unfathomable 32 in the Premier League alone.

Since the season began in August, Salah has scored 12 goals and handed out four assists in all competitions. He has also been selected as man of the match four times - a remarkable number given how early in the season it still is.

What makes this even more impressive is the fact that Salah is doing it against elite teams. Salah's molten-hot run of form has included matches against Chelsea, AC Milan, Manchester City, and now Atlético. Though it may be unlikely that he will win it, Salah might very well be making a late run to force himself into contention for the Ballon d'Or.

Right now, the Egyptian is arguably the best striker on the planet. There isn't a defensive line which seems to have an answer for him. Only Robert Lewandowski of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund's Erling Haaland have a legitimate case over Salah at the moment. 

Salah isn't just dominating on the stat sheet alone. He is not only scoring goals with machine-like efficiency; he is also humiliating opponents while doing so. The goal he scored against Manchester City went viral almost immediately after he scored it as he carved up the City defense, leaving them in the dust.

His goal against Atlético was almost as impressive. Salah opened the scoring by making his way past three Atlético players before launching a shot from just outside the box that made its way into the net via a deflection off Atlético defender Geoffrey Kondogbia.

A major reason for Salah's incredible play this season has been his positional move. Salah is playing further out on the wing than he has for several years, and this has taken his game to new heights. As shown by his goals against City and Atlético, even elite defenses are finding it almost impossible to handle Salah as he moves inside from such a wide position.

Additionally, Salah's interplay with right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold has been truly superb. As one of the duo moves inside, the other will stay out wide to provide width. This combination has proven to be almost unstoppable when both are in peak form - like now. Salah might just turn out to be the driving force behind Liverpool's second Champions League title in four seasons.

Liverpool's next match will be a Premier League clash against arch-rivals Manchester United. Salah's current hot streak coupled with United's shaky form should see Liverpool claim a fairly straightforward victory. Even if United do somehow manage to contain Salah, they will almost certainly have done so by doubling or even tripling him often. This would in turn lead to players such as Jota, Alexander-Arnold, and Sadio Mané becoming wide open and punishing United accordingly.

Anfield has seen countless all-time great strikers over the decades. Kenny Dalglish, Ian Rush, Michael Owen, and Luis Suárez are the names which headline this illustrious list. Yet, when all is said and done, it might very well be Salah who ends up the greatest Liverpool striker of all time.

I'll finish by bringing this up: James Milner currently wears Liverpool's iconic #7 jersey. When Milner retires or leaves Liverpool, whichever comes first, he should see to it that Salah will inherit the #7 jersey. There is no other player who more deserves the honour of donning that number at that club.

Sunday, October 17, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 180: Seven Minutes that May Have Changed a Season

In just a single seven-minute span, the trajectory of Bayer Leverkusen's season could potentially have been fundamentally altered.

The recent match between Leverkusen and Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich finished in a one-sided 5-1 victory in favour of Bayern. Four of Bayern's five goals came between the 30th and 37th minute, with Serge Gnabry scoring two within that flurry of goals. Robert Lewandowski also scored two goals of his own while Thomas Müller scored Bayern's other goal to ensure that the reigning Bundesliga champions bounced back from their loss to Eintracht Frankfurt in emphatic fashion.

Leverkusen, on the other hand, may have entered the match with a slight, yet an existing, hope of challenging for a first Bundesliga title in the club's history. However, even though Die Werkself still remain just three points behind Bayern in the league, the match made it clear: there's still a chasm between Bayern and Leverkusen.

Realistically, the only team with a chance of dethroning Bayern and denying the Bavarian juggernaut a 10th consecutive league title is Borussia Dortmund simply due to the transcendent talent of Erling Haaland, who, at 21, might already be the best player in the league.

Heading into the season, Leverkusen were arguably the best-positioned of any team other than Bayern or Dortmund to take advantage of any slip-ups by the leading contenders and insert themselves into the title race. This was largely due to RB Leipzig's expected decline following head coach Julian Nagelsmann's departure; Nagelsmann took over in the Bayern dugout during the off-season.

Up to this point, Leverkusen had been keeping pace with the leaders as they started the season strongly. However, the match against Bayern highlighted the true gap in quality between the two teams. It also made this fact abundantly clear: in today's game, you do need that one elite player to build your team around. It's just not enough to have a "solid group of guys".

This is by no means a team without any notable talent. The 18-year-old Florian Wirtz is a likely superstar in the making; he is already the best player on the team. Wirtz is surrounded by a supporting cast including the likes of Moussa Diaby, Lukáš Hrádecký, Kerem Demirbay, and Patrik Schick. On paper, Leverkusen entered the season with a team expected to finish the season in the top four with not only an outside chance of a league title, but more realistically a DFB-Pokal title as well. Leverkusen are probably also the second-most likely to win the Europa League behind Napoli.

It should be noted that during the past off-season, Leverkusen did make one key error in the transfer market. After selling Leon Bailey to Aston Villa for €32 million, they did not use the money to sign any players who would have moved the needle in a meaningful way. Following Bailey's exit, Leverkusen signed Robert Andrich, Piero Hincapié, and Amine Adli; none of these three signings have made a significant impact on the team as of yet.

While it may be true that Leverkusen might inherently find it difficult to attract big names due to both their relative lack of finances and their unglamorous location, they could arguably have done better with what they had at their disposal. For example, Dortmund signed Donyell Malen from PSV Eindhoven for €30 million, while VfL Wolfsburg brought in Luca Waldschmidt for the surprisingly low price of €12 million.

That being said, all is not lost at the BayArena by any means. A season in which Leverkusen finish in the top four in the league and make deep runs in both the DFB-Pokal and Europa League will be regarded as a successful one, and Wirtz might be blossoming into that singular elite talent before our very eyes. Nevertheless, the question remains: when the season ends, could Leverkusen end up thinking "it might have been more than even this"?

As long as the wheels don't fall off, Leverkusen will remain on track to have their best season since 2015-16 when, led by the 17 Bundesliga goals of Javier Hernández, they finished third in the league. They will be competitive all season long, but has the result of this one match changed how they will approach the rest of the season? Only time will tell.

Sunday, October 10, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 179: Entering the Pantheon

The final of this season's UEFA Nations League saw reigning world champions France beat Spain 2-1 to clinch the title. Mikel Oyarzabal opened the scoring to put Spain 1-0 ahead at the San Siro, only for Karim Benzema to score France's equalizer just two minutes later. Kylian Mbappé would then score the winning goal with 10 minutes of regulation time remaining.

This victory does not only give Les Bleus their first Nations League title; it also puts the current iteration of the French national team in the discussion for "greatest international team of all time".

I'm not jumping the gun at all. Prior to this tournament, France already had a World Cup title in 2018; they were also runners-up to Portugal in Euro 2016. Many of the core players of those two squads are still key members of the current team; hence, those squads can be classified as part of the current era.

When we consider where the current France team stands in international football history, we have to first think of the other teams which are often considered the greatest ever: 1957-63 Brazil, 1970-76 West Germany, and 2008-12 Spain. With all due respect to 1970 Brazil, though they may have peaked the highest, I cannot honestly include them due to their lack of longevity.

Over their respective runs, Brazil won two World Cups and reached two Copa América finals and two semifinals, West Germany won one World Cup and one European Championship while also reaching a World Cup semifinal and a European Championship final, and Spain won two European Championships and one World Cup. France's current record of one European Championship runner-up finish and one World Cup and Nations League title apiece over a five-year stretch stacks up very nicely indeed.

On top of that, with the 2022 World Cup in Qatar just over a year away, perhaps the most ominous sign for those who believe they can topple France is this: France just won the Nations League without their best player and potential Ballon d'Or contender N'Golo Kanté. The Chelsea defensive midfielder was not named to the squad after having tested positive for Covid-19.

Consider this: in the final against Spain, the player in Kanté's usual spot was Aurélien Tchouaméni. Tchouaméni is certainly no scrub and does have a bright future ahead of him - but of course, he can't hold a candle to the player I consider to be the second-greatest defensive midfielder of all time. Imagine how France could've played if Kanté had been present.

That said, it's obvious by now that this France team isn't just about Kanté. It's loaded with all-time greats including Antoine Griezmann, Paul Pogba, Benzema, and Raphaël Varane as well as legends in the making such as Mbappé, Dayot Upamecano, Benjamin Pavard, and Lucas Hernandez. Almost as if to rub it in for their direct competition, France's depth is truly astonishing - even their backups alone could give a good game to many a top team.

Certainly, France have to be considered the favourites to win back-to-back World Cuo titles next year and become the first team in 60 years to successfully defend a world title. Though the likes of Belgium, England, Italy, and Brazil do have a puncher's chance, the reality is that as it stands right now, it's France, then a gap, then the rest of the contenders.

Another World Cup title in 2022 would unquestionably make the current France team the greatest international football team to have ever taken to the field. Not only that - the reputations and legacies of their key players would be elevated to new heights.

Kanté would become the undisputed greatest defensive midfielder of all time, a top-20 player in history, and arguably France's greatest footballer ever (depending on how you rank Zinedine Zidane). Pogba, Griezmann, Benzema, and arguably Varane would enter the top 50 of all time. Mbappé would clearly move ahead in what I expect to become a generation-defining rivalry with Erling Haaland, while Hugo Lloris, Presnel Kimpembe, Hernandez, and even head coach Didier Deschamps, among others, would no longer be as unjustly underrated as they are today.

To sum it up, France are potentially slightly more than a year from ascending to a level which no other international team has reached. The remarkable part is: it seems realistic that they will do it.

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 178: First Test Passed - but What Next?

Arguably the standout fixture of this season's Champions League group stage just took place with Paris Saint-Germain hosting Manchester City - a rematch of a semifinal from last season.

PSG took all three points after winning 2-0. Idrissa Gueye opened the scoring for the French club in the eighth minute. Then, in the 74th minute, the moment for which all PSG fans had been waiting finally arrived: Lionel Messi scored his first goal for the club since signing from Barcelona in the off-season. In doing so, Messi snapped a somewhat unexpected goal drought which started as soon as he arrived at PSG.

Some might point to PSG's victory as a sign of things to come this season. They claim that the version of PSG we saw against City is PSG at its full potential - a team which should be the prohibitive favourite to land a first Champions League title in the club's history.

However, I would urge caution regarding this viewpoint. For one thing, this current Manchester City team, while certainly no slouches, do not appear to be genuine Champions League contenders. They undoubtedly have a very solid squad, but on the whole, are about a half-tier behind the four teams with the best chance to win it all: Chelsea, Manchester United, Bayern Munich, and PSG. As I alluded to in an earlier post, I strongly believe that City will go on to rue their heavy expenditure on Jack Grealish during the off-season. That same amount of money could easily have been used to further strengthen their team in other ways.

In addition (and this is a point I have brought up time and again), it's difficult, if not almost impossible, to rely on this PSG team during clutch situations. Almost every time PSG have found themselves in a high-stakes Champions League match over the past decade, they have come up short. Incredibly, the more favoured they are to win, the worse they seem to do.

PSG's struggles under pressure have been made evident again and again. For seven consecutive seasons, they failed to advance beyond the tournament's quarterfinals. They also choked away commanding leads against Barcelona and Manchester United in 2017 and 2019 respectively; both of these took place in the round of 16. Just last season, they capitulated against City in what many thought would have been a hotly-contested semifinal.

Messi's arrival at the Parc de Princes has raised expectations in the French capital to a whole new level. More than ever, the general sentiment at the club and among its fans is "Champions League or bust". However, considering how PSG have historically performed when the pressure has been at its highest, there is every reason to believe that they will once again fold under the weight of this pressure.

Just to pile on even more pressure, Messi was not the only big-name arrival during the off-season. Now that Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, and Sergio Ramos are all at the club, PSG are a genuine "superteam". They clearly have the personnel to win it all, but the question remains - do they have the mentality?

Before anyone says "but Messi and Ramos have delivered in big matches before", remember - there's just something about PSG which seems to "poison" the mentality of everyone who joins. Just look at Kylian Mbappé, for example. When he was just 19, he amazed the world with a series of outstanding performances on the biggest stage and brightest lights of all - the World Cup. A few months later, he made his PSG debut. Since then, he has never been able to recapture that same magic in high-leverage situations.

The textbook example of this problem is Neymar. Underperformance under pressure was never one of the Brazilian's trademark characteristics during his Barça days. This all changed after he signed for PSG for a record-breaking transfer fee in 2017. At this point, so often has Neymar choked that it's arguably fair to question if he even has a net positive effect on the team when the pressure is at its highest.

If PSG once again flatter to deceive, as I believe they eventually will, the fallout will be ugly indeed. Even at this early stage of the season, the stakes have never been higher - only time will tell if this season, they will finally right the wrongs of past years.

Sunday, September 26, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 177: This Season's Most Underrated Team

What if I were to tell you that there is a team which in just this season alone might make the leap from not even being Champions League participants to winning a major domestic league for the first time in over two decades?

There is, in fact, such a team, and not only that - despite being very much improved from last season and overcoming a slow start by recording a key victory over their bitter rivals, absolutely nobody is taking their league title chances seriously. However, as the season progresses, I believe that it will become evident - overlooking this team will prove to be a grave mistake.

The team I'm talking about is Lazio, who just beat city rivals Roma 3-2 during the latest Serie A matchday. This most recent iteration of the Derby della Capitale saw I Biancocelesti emerge victorious despite Roma's greater control of the match. Although Roma shot twice as often as Lazio did, took nine corners to Lazio's one, and generally dictated the match's tempo, a resolute Lazio claimed all three points thanks to goals scored by Sergej Milinković-Savić, Pedro, and Felipe Anderson.

Although Lazio may currently lie just sixth in Serie A, seven points behind league leaders Napoli, it's still early days - only six of the 38 matchdays have gone by. This is a team which could absolutely bridge that gap and mount a serious challenge for their first Scudetto since 2000.

Just like the team as a whole, Milinković-Savić, Lazio's best player is one who continues to be underrated despite the fact that he may soon make the leap to elite status. A fundamentally sound central midfielder who is a true two-way player, Milinković-Savić returned to the Stadio Olimpico for a seventh season despite off-season interest from Real Madrid, Manchester United, and Liverpool. Given his career trajectory thus far, it isn't out of the question that the Serb might emerge as one of the world's best midfielders this season and lead Lazio to new heights.

During the off-season, Lazio made some very savvy acquisitions which, once again, went under almost everyone's radar. Felipe Anderson came back to the club at which he had previously spent five years; he has fit in seamlessly since his return from three years at West Ham - it almost feels as though he never left. Lazio also picked up Albanian full-back Elseid Hysaj from Napoli on a free transfer. Hysaj has been solid for Lazio since his arrival. If the wheels eventually begin to fall off for Napoli, releasing Hysaj may prove to be a move which they will regret.

Lazio even made a major upgrade in the dugout. In June, they replaced Simone Inzaghi with the perpetually underrated yet often luckless Maurizio Sarri. As Lazio's new head coach, Sarri will undoubtedly have a point to prove, especially to Juventus. Just over a year ago, Juve shockingly fired Sarri even though he led them to yet another Scudetto. He is a coach whose relative lack of silverware belies his actual skill. No matter where Sarri has coached, his teams have almost always overachieved. It would be no surprise if this were to be true of Lazio as well.

Perhaps the biggest factor working in Lazio's favour, however, is the sudden decline of their Serie A rivals. Inter Milan and Juventus both lost their respective best players to second stints at their former Premier League clubs. The effects of these departures are obvious; without Romelu Lukaku and Cristiano Ronaldo, Inter and Juve do not even look close to the teams they were last season. AC Milan also lost their best player in June when Gianluigi Donnarumma signed for Paris Saint-Germain on a free transfer.

When you look at the five other clubs which could realistically win the Scudetto this season, all of them are flawed in some way be it in players, coaching, ownership and front office, or perhaps even a combination of the preceding. Though this is true of Lazio as well, the fact that there is no obvious leading contender to win this season's league title means that they realistically to have a chance to break their drought this season.

The glory days of Pavel Nedvěd, Alessandro Nesta, Marcelo Salas, and Sven-Göran Eriksson may long have passed, but now a new generation could be set to take its place in club history.

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 176: A Dozen Matches from GOAT Status

This season's Champions League is now underway, and perhaps the most anticipated fixture of the tournament's first matchday saw Inter Milan host Real Madrid. Real left the San Siro with all three points after winning 1-0. Rodrygo's late goal proved to make the difference.

Real's victory came in spite of the fact that Inter had the majority of the goalscoring opportunities. However, Los Merengues held firm throughout the onslaught, then took full advantage of their chance to snatch the win when it came.

This Champions League season could potentially have historic ramifications for Real. If they go on to win it all, one person at the Santiago Bernabéu will end the season as the greatest of all time.

I'm not talking about a player. The person I'm referring to is Real head coach Carlo Ancelotti, who returned to the Spanish capital this past off-season for his second stint at the club.

At the moment, I currently rank Ancelotti fourth all-time behind José Mourinho, Rinus Michels, and Helenio Herrera. However, another Champions League title would catapult the man from Emilia-Romagna ahead of all three and become, in my opinion, the unquestionable GOAT.

Ancelotti already has three Champions League title to his name: two with AC Milan in 2003 and 2007 as well as one with Real in 2014. It's difficult to overstate just what a fourth title would do for his reputation. If Real were to win the Champions League, Ancelotti would have four Champions League titles and stand alone as the all-time record holder. Even more remarkably, he would have won those four titles over a 19-year span.

Let that figure sink in. Nineteen years. That is unheard of. It would be an achievement which would likely never be repeated.

To put it into perspective, consider the three coaches who I currently rank ahead of Ancelotti. Mourinho won his first Champions League title in 2004. It has been 17 years since; he now struggles to keep pace with the tactical evolution which has taken place in recent years.

Nineteen years after Michels led Ajax to the 1971 European Cup, he was a year removed from an eighth-place finish in the Bundesliga with Bayer Leverkusen. Herrera, meanwhile, retired from coaching in 1981; this was 17 years after his first European Cup title.

Ancelotti isn't only defined by his longevity; his consistency is also absolutely astonishing. In addition to his three Champions League titles, he has reached the semifinals of Europe's leading club competition on four further occasions. These seven runs to the semis or better were achieved at the helm of four different clubs over 16 years, proving that Ancelotti is truly a coach who can extract outstanding results out of any squad and with just about any set of tactics, his blip at Everton notwithstanding.

If Ancelotti were to deliver a Champions League title to Real, it would easily rank as the greatest achievement of his legendary coaching career. Real are not among the favourites to win this season's tournament. Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, and reigning champions Chelsea are all seen as more likely to claim the title. One of the main reasons why I currently rank Mourinho as the greatest ever is the fact that he won both his Champions League titles as the coach of an underdog team. For Ancelotti to emulate the legendary Portuguese coach combined with everything else he has already done would end the GOAT debate.

In the more than two decades since Ancelotti first emerged as one of the best coaches on the in the world, the football landscape and metagame have changed numerous times. The fact that he has been able to remain so successful this entire time in spite of all these changes is a testament to his strategic genius and his immense knowledge of the players at his disposal and their strengths. Yet, in spite of all of this, Ancelotti continues to remain underrated by many fans as well as the media.

A victorious Champions League run this season would likely change that. Though it might not make Ancelotti the consensus pick for greatest football coach of all time, it would likely put him much closer to that status than most would think.

Saturday, September 11, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 175: One Man Makes All the Difference

This past off-season, former Bayern Munich head coach Hansi Flick left the club to take over at the helm of Germany's national team. Much to the dismay of every other club within the Bundesliga (especially RB Leipzig) as well as Bayern's fellow Champions League title contenders, Bayern would soon bring in Flick's Leipzig counterpart Julian Nagelsmann, a coach with remarkable tactical nous and in-game decision-making skills belying his relative inexperience.

In a Bundesliga match during the most recent matchday which saw Nagelsmann's current club face off against his former one, the effect of the Bavarian coach's presence in the dugout was evident. Bayern had absolutely no trouble notching a 4-1 away victory against Leipzig in a match which saw last season's Bundesliga champions gain what should prove to be a vital three points against last season's league runners-up.

It was obvious from the beginning that Nagelsmann's successor Jesse Marsch was clearly overmatched. From a tactical perspective, as might have been expected, Nagelsmann proved why even at just 34 years old, he is already regarded as one of the world's best coaches. Nagelsmann already seems as though he has been in charge at Bayern for years.

Nagelsmann's track record speaks for itself. Having been coaching for just over five years, he has led both Hoffenheim and Leipzig to impressive results over that time. He rose to prominence after leading an unfancied Hoffenheim team to back-to-back top-four league finishes in the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons, then followed that up by clearly establishing Leipzig as the second-best team in Germany behind Bayern. He even took Leipzig on an unexpected Champions League semifinal run in the 2019-20 season which included an impressive upset victory over Atlético Madrid in the quarterfinals.

This is the first time in Nagelsmann's coaching career that his team is the favourite - not only in the Bundesliga, but also in the Champions League. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that Bayern's acquisition of Nagelsmann makes them the favourite to win a second Champions League title in three years. Though Flick is not an incompetent coach by any means, Nagelsmann is quite simply on another level - he might very well rise to the "pantheon" level of coaches someday.

Where Nagelsmann truly excels can be seen in the phrase "the sum of the parts is greater than the whole". When you look at the players he had at Hoffenheim and Leipzig, no one would have expected him to lead both clubs to the results which he did. Now that he is at a loaded Bayern team boasting the likes of Dayot Upamecano, Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané, Alphonso Davies, and of course, Robert Lewandowski, the potential which his squad now has is almost incomprehensibly high - if he could extract such success out of a more limited squad, imagine what he could do with what he has to work with now.

On top of that, Nagelsmann will bring even more tactical flexibility to Bayern. During his time at Leipzig, Nagelsmann was known to rotate formations, switching between three and four at the back or sometimes even playing without a true centre-forward. This once again reflects well on Nagelsmann because it shows he can and will adapt his setup to specifically counter the opposing team - something the vast majority of coaches do not do.

Many coaches in charge of star names for the first time might sometimes struggle with managing the personalities and egos within the locker room. Fortunately for Nagelsmann, this will not be a problem at Bayern. This is a squad which truly buys into the team-first approach from Lewandowski all the way down to the end-of-the-bench backups. Thus, Nagelsmann can expect to avoid any internal drama which could threaten to derail an elite club's season.

Due to his comparative lack of coaching experience, there is something of a reluctance to acknowledge Nagelsmann as one of the world's best coaches. However, everything seems to have aligned in such a way that Nagelsmann will never have a better chance to win a Bundesliga-Champions League double and enter that top tier where he truly belongs.

This season, Nagelsmann could hardly be in a more enviable position. He not only has a great chance to lead Bayern to another Champions League title; but reputation-wise, he also has so little to lose and so much to gain.