The Weekly Take, Issue 357: The Champions League Title Starts to Slip Away

With Bayern Munich likely to reclaim the Bundesliga title which they stunningly surrendered to Bayer Leverkusen last season, the Bavarian powerhouse’s attention was now firmly on their Champions League quarterfinal against Inter Milan. A win would put Bayern in the semifinals for the second season in a row.

However, Bayern will have their work cut out for them when they head to the San Siro next week after losing the first leg 2-1 at home. Inter opened the scoring in the 38th minute via a spectacular trivela goal by Lautaro Martínez that caught Bayern goalkeeper Jonas Urbig completely off-guard. Although Bayern went into the break a goal behind, they were the team largely in control of the flow of the game; it did seem as though at some point, Bayern would find an equalizer.

After continuing to push throughout the second half, Bayern did indeed make it 1-1 deep into the second half. Just over five minutes before the end of regulation time, Thomas Müller finished off Konrad Laimer’s pass with a half-volley. It was fitting that Müller found the net for Bayern after having recently announced that he’d be leaving the Allianz Arena at the end of the season after a legendary 17-year career at Bayern.

However, at least as far as the first leg would be concerned, Bayern and Müller would be denied their fairytale ending. Only about three minutes after Müller’s goal, Davide di Frattesi scored Inter Milan’s winning goal, ensuring that the Nerazzurri would have the advantage heading into the second leg.

There are several key points to pick out as the main reasons behind Bayern’s loss - but among them, the most important has to be the fact that head coach Vincent Kompany completely bungled his tactics. Many have been skeptical of the Belgian ever since he was hired in the most recent off-season; this was understandable given the fact that his most notable achievement to date was reaching the final of the Belgian Cup in 2022 with Anderlecht - not even close to the level that he’d be expected to be at in the Bayern dugout.

There were three obvious errors that Kompany made in his tactical setup. The most notable was his decision to choose Raphaël Guerreiro over Müller as the starting attacking midfielder. There was no reason whatsoever to do so because this specific match-up favored Müller’s playstyle rather than Guerreiro’s - something Kompany obviously missed entirely. Not surprisingly, Guerreiro was among Bayern’s worst players against Inter because, as predicted, Inter’s tactical setup largely neutralized Guerreiro. By the time Guerreiro was replaced by Serge Gnabry in the 74th minute, it was too late - Bayern had already blown several opportunities which they might have taken with someone else on the pitch; they would be made to pay for those later.

While his big-game struggles have been known for a while now, Harry Kane once again failed to deliver under the brightest lights and highest pressure with a dismal showing, squandering multiple major goalscoring chances. Despite being unquestionably the greatest striker to ever come out of England, Kane has time and again wilted under the spotlight; this match against Inter was no exception. Although Kane will likely put an end to his infamous trophyless career record this season unless Bayern somehow fumble the Bundesliga title, this match once again showed why, for all that he has accomplished throughout his career and despite his standing as an all-time great, he still falls short of that highest echelon - the “inner circle” of those all-time greats.

Finally, even if Bayern were to overturn the deficit and beat Inter to advance to the semifinals, the biggest issue that faces them is probably this: they don’t have that one guy who can single-handedly take over the match and put the team on his back. As of right now, the clear title favorites are Barcelona who have Lamine Yamal filling that most important of roles. It’s very difficult to win the Champions League without a bona fide superstar on that tier - and Bayern don’t have one.

Although it’s too soon to completely dismiss Bayern Munich’s chances of winning the Champions League, things certainly don’t look good at the moment. They’re working not only against their recent track record, but also historical precedent. Unless something changes soon, Bayern likely won’t be bringing the Champions League trophy back to Bavaria for the sixth time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 356: Wait, Haven't We Seen This Before?

Chelsea moved a step closer to clinching a spot in next season’s Champions League by beating Tottenham 1-0 in a London derby which went according to the script - after all, the vast majority of people expected this to be won by the Blues, given Tottenham’s dismal season that’s seen them end up all the way down in 14th place in the Premier League.

The only goal of this match at Stamford Bridge came just after half-time. Cole Palmer sent in a perfect cross which Enzo Fernández finished off with a close-range header. Both teams would subsequently have a goal waved off via VAR; Moisés Caicedo wasn’t quite able to put Chelsea two goals ahead after his goal fell afoul of a VAR check. Later on, Pape Matar Sarr’s would-be equalizer experienced the same fate.

When things wrapped up, there was clearly one player who, as he has done on so many occasions this season, stood head and shoulders above the rest - and who else could it have been but Chelsea ace Cole Palmer? The Manchester-born midfielder has been almost single-handedly carrying Chelsea over the course of this season and last; without him, Chelsea wouldn’t have even come close to qualifying for the Europa Conference League. This time around, they’re very much in contention for a Champions  League berth by finishing in the top four.

Out of everyone who’s part of the six clubs who could realistically finish in any of the lower two Champions League qualification spots, Palmer is the best player who doesn’t play for Manchester City by a considerable distance. He has transformed Chelsea ever since breaking out as a bona fide superstar last season, turning them from a mere punchline to a team which actually appears to have a semblance of legitimacy about it. In 2022-23, the season before Palmer was brought to Stamford Bridge, Chelsea finished just 12th in the league - their worst league finish since the 1993-94 campaign when they ended up all the way down in 14th. Their turnaround since then has almost been completely due to Palmer.

As of right now, there’s a case to be made that Palmer is already one of the top 10 players in the world at just 22 years old. Likely still several years away from his absolute peak, Palmer is primed to become a perennial Ballon d’Or contender once he gets there.

This, however, does bring up a question - and it’s one which will be very familiar to many Chelsea fans: just how will the club build around Palmer? Years ago when Chelsea had Eden Hazard on the roster, year after year Chelsea spent money on the wrong guys to surround him with - legendary defensive midfielder N'Golo Kanté being one of the rare exceptions. Having understandably run out of patience by then, it was little surprise that Hazard eventually left Chelsea for Real Madrid in the 2019 off-season after a seven-year stint at Chelsea. While there’s no guarantee that this will be what will eventually happen to Palmer, the signs so far aren’t exactly promising.

With the possible exception of the loan acquisition of Jadon Sancho from Manchester United, none of the players which Chelsea have brought in this season have moved the needle in any way. This is especially galling when one considers the fact that Chelsea have spent over £200 million on player transfers this season. To make matters worse, they even parted with Ian Maatsen, Romelu Lukaku, and Conor Gallagher - all players who would’ve certainly contributed to their top-four push.

Ever since Todd Boehly bought Chelsea in May 2022, it’s been more of the same when compared to the Roman Abramovich years - if not even worse. Again and again, Boehly has spent recklessly on players who don’t fit the direction in which Chelsea ought to be heading; as of right now, Chelsea are completely failing at building a team around Palmer. If this keeps up, it could be very possible that Palmer leaves at some point within the next five years.

Players at Cole Palmer’s level are the rarest commodity in football and the centerpiece around which a truly elite team can be built. However, it appears that history is starting to repeat itself at Chelsea - and based on the last few years, it’s more likely than not that they will double down on their current approach.

The Weekly Take, Issue 355: The Hottest Streak Gets Even Hotter

The latest iteration of the Seville derby saw two clubs in completely different runs of form facing off. Real Betis entered the match on a streak of five consecutive wins in La Liga; seemingly out of nowhere, they’d flipped the switch in mid-February and have since been in molten-hot form, taking win after win—including one against Real Madrid. With this recent surge, Betis had forced their way into contention for a top-four spot and a berth in next season’s Champions League.

Sevilla, on the other hand, could barely have been further away as far as pre-match form was concerned. Over their prior eight matches, Sevilla had won just two, collecting just eight points out of a possible 24 along the way. However, in many cases the results of derby matches have nothing to do with the teams’ form heading into the match—the one thing Sevilla had going for them, however scant it may have been.

Sevilla scored the opening goal against the run of play in the 17th minute. Swiss winger Rubén Vargas put Sevilla a goal ahead after having been set up by Dodi Lukébakio. This, however, didn’t last as just eight minutes later, Betis scored the equalizer via Johnny Cardoso’s volley.

Betis would go on to take the lead during first-half stoppage time when Cucho Hernández put the ball past Sevilla goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland after having been set-up for a one-on-one chance by veteran midfielder Isco. Neither side would add to the scoresheet in the second half, ensuring Betis would claim their sixth league win in a row and their first derby victory since a 5-3 victory back in 2018.

Over the past month and a half, Betis have been through a stunning turnaround. After four consecutive seasons of finishing between fifth and seventh in La Liga, the 2024-25 campaign had been shaping up to represent a significant step backwards for Betis; they were in 11th place prior to this six-match win streak. At this point, however, Betis are now in sixth place and have a puncher’s chance of overhauling Athletic Bilbao who are currently fourth.

So how did this happen? Well, for one thing, Betis’ hot streak highlights the importance of the mid-season transfer window. It’s no coincidence that their recent surge began in mid-February after the end of the transfer window. Despite bringing just two players to Estadio Benito Villamarín, both have been highly impactful acquisitions. Over the past month and a half, Hernández - signed from Major League Soccer club Columbus Crew for €13 million - and Antony who was brought in on loan from Manchester United have been arguably the club’s two best players. Both have added another layer to Betis’ play which the club simply didn’t have earlier on in the season; the results since then are clear evidence of this.

Prior to this season, the aforementioned four straight seasons in the top seven coincided with the hiring of Manuel Pellegrini in the off-season heading into the 2020-21 season. The Chilean has since proven that he is one of the most underrated coaches in world football today; this has been most obvious this season as Pellegrini has played a major role in taking Betis from being mired in mid-table and facing a throwaway season to the chase for a Champions League spot - and in their current form, they might just pull it off.

The late-career revival of Isco has to be mentioned as well. After a difficult last season at Real, Isco signed for Sevilla in August 2022 but was cut a little over four months later. After remaining unsigned for the rest of the season, Betis signed him in the 2023 off-season. Since arriving at Betis, Isco looks more like the player who played a major role in Real’s four Champions League title runs over his nine years at the Santiago Bernabéu - something not many might have expected when Betis first signed him.

At this point, Real Betis would be written off at one’s peril; in their current form, they might just qualify for the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history. This would have seemed all but impossible just two months ago. While it’s certainly not a lock by any means, right now the only thing that can be realistically said of Betis is “why not them”?

The Weekly Take, Issue 354: International Football's Most Storied Rivalry Adds a New Chapter

The quarterfinals of the UEFA Nations League saw arch-rivals Germany and Italy paired against each other - and over the two legs, the fixture more than lived up to the reputation created by many iconic Germany/Italy matches over the years.

The first leg at San Siro saw Italy take an early lead through a goal scored by Sandro Tonali. However, things turned around after the break. Tim Kleindienst, who had replaced Mainz striker Jonathan Burkardt at half-time, found the net just a few minutes later and thus put Die Mannschaft back on level terms. In the 76th minute, Germany took the lead after Leon Goretzka scored with a header off a cross from Bayern Munich teammate Joshua Kimmich. It was also Kimmich’s second assist of the match after having set up the prior goal scored by Borussia Mönchengladbach striker Kleindienst. The first leg would end 2-1 to Germany.

After the first half of the second leg at Signal Iduna Park, it looked as though Italy were dead in the water. Germany took a 3-0 match lead, and thus a 5-1 aggregate lead into the half-time break, following goals scored by Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, and Kleindienst. At that point it seemed like a wrap; however, the Azzurri mounted a furious comeback in the second half. Fiorentina striker Moise Kean scored in the 49th and 69th minutes to give Italy a glimmer of hope. In stoppage time, Giacomo Raspadori scored a penalty to put Italy a step closer - but they ultimately ran out of time; Germany would advance to the semi-finals.

At this point, it’s safe to say that Germany vs Italy is the greatest rivalry in the history of international football. This was an instant classic without any question; however, as pulsating as this Nations League fixture - especially the second leg - was, it still doesn’t even match up to the most iconic matches between the two.

This is a rivalry which has seen matches like the 1970 World Cup semifinal, the 1982 World Cup final, the 2006 World Cup semifinal, and the Euro 2012 semifinal. While Germany/Italy might not have the sheer incendiary nature of Brazil/Argentina, the historic weight of Germany/Netherlands, or even the sociopolitically-charged element that Argentina/England has, when it comes to strictly the on-field product, no other rivalry has churned out banger after banger like this one has.

In addition to all those epic matches, another element that further elevates this rivalry is the fact that over the years, there have been clear narratives running through it. For example, until 2022, Germany had never beaten Italy in a tournament match without needing at least extra time. This changed in spectacular style when Germany beat Italy 5-2 in their second of two group matches in the 2022-23 Nations League.

On the flipside, some of Italy’s wins over Germany have bolstered their own narratives as well. Cases in point: their 1982 World Cup and Euro 2012 victories spearheaded by a pair of controversial strikers: Paolo Rossi and Mario Balotelli respectively. Despite the off-field drama that had surrounded each of them even long before their respective tournaments, both silenced the doubters with match-winning performances and etched their names into the history of this iconic rivalry.

One final reason why Germany/Italy is the greatest of all international football rivalries is the fact that it involves two of the most decorated and historically successful international football teams ever. Although it may be true that Italy haven’t even made it to the last two World Cups while Germany largely struggled throughout that same period, that’s been a minor blip - both Germany and Italy have almost always been elite or close to it at the same time and for the vast majority of the respective team histories. After all, eight World Cups and five European Championships between the two speak for themselves.

No other international football rivalry brings every element of what makes a rivalry truly epic to the table the way the one between Germany and Italy does. After something of a lull following their Euro 2016 match as both teams entered difficult periods, Europe’s two most successful international teams ever are both once again back on the rise—and without any question, this iconic rivalry will have so much more to offer over the years to come.

The Weekly Take, Issue 353: The Clear Team to Beat Right Now

The most recent La Liga matchday was highlighted by a match which saw Atlético Madrid host Barcelona in a clash which would have major implications on this season’s title race. A win for Barça would put them in first place in the league - and even that after having played a game less than Real Madrid who would then be second.

As for Atlético, this match represented an opportunity to gain important ground on Barça. By beating their Catalan opponents, Atlético would move two points clear of them and just one point behind cross-town arch-rivals Real. In addition, this was also an opportunity for Atlético to bounce back after Real had just knocked them out of the Champions League’s round of 16 in a penalty shootout.

Atlético took the lead shortly before half-time. Julián Alvarez atoned for his crucial missed penalty in Atlético’s prior Champions League fixture by opening the scoring off a pass from Giuliano Simeone. By doing so, Alvarez punished Barça for blowing several key chances earlier in the half.

In the 70th minute, Alexander Sørloth made it 2-0 in Atlético’s favor and seemingly clinched the win over the Blaugrana. Having come off the bench, the Norwegian striker beat the offside trap to score Atlético’s second. At this point, it looked as though Atlético had it in the bag.

Remarkably, Barça flipped the script with two goals over the next eight minutes. Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres pulled Barça level, making this somewhat of an inverse to the first leg of the two teams’ recent Copa Del Rey semifinal when Barça surrendered a late two-goal lead to end up with a 4-4 draw.

Barça went on to complete the comeback in stoppage time. Lamine Yamal’s shot from outside the penalty area took a heavy deflection off Atlético defender Reinildo on its way into the back of the net. Torres would subsequently add his second and Barça’s fourth deep into the additional minutes to move a step closer to reclaiming the league title they surrendered to Real last season.

After a slump in November and December, Barça are once again firing on all cylinders. The victory over Atlético was their seventh in a row in the league; over that span, Barça have flooded opposing nets with 23 goals over those seven matches while conceding just five. They are unquestionably the hottest team on the planet right now and the clear favorites to not only win La Liga, but the Champions League as well following Liverpool’s shocking elimination in the round of 16. Barça’s molten-hot attack has been powering them almost all season long. Among teams in major European leagues, only Bayern Munich are averaging more goals per match - and that in a relatively easier league as well.

Additionally, a large part of Barça’s success this season has to do with their depth. Barça are probably the deepest team on the planet and on multiple occasions throughout the season, they’ve had one or more players come off the bench to make major impacts. This was once again the case against Atlético with two of their four goals scored by Torres who entered the game to replace Dani Olmo about halfway through the second half. It’s this depth which has put Barça in a position in which winning the Treble for an unprecedented third time in club history isn’t even out of the question.

Of course, for the team to remain at this level, star power is a must - and against Atlético, Barça’s ace winger Lamine Yamal turned in another outstanding performance. There’s a realistic chance that at just 17, Yamal has a legitimate chance to become the youngest player to ever win the Ballon d’Or. The La Masia alumnus is not only already Barça’s best player; there’s a case to be made that he’s among the top five players on the planet right now. Not only is Yamal already “that guy”; it’s mind-boggling to think of the level at which he could be in five or 10 years’ time.

Though the final stretch of the season is yet to unfold, Barcelona have clearly put themselves in a very strong position. There’s every chance that when their 2024-25 campaign is in the books, there will be multiple new additions to Barça’s trophy cabinet.

The Weekly Take, Issue 352: The Overhaul That Was Needed Years Ago

The abolition of the prior rule prohibiting teams from the same country from being drawn against each other in the early knockout rounds of the Champions League opened the door for the round of 16 fixture between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen to take place—the standout of the eight clashes which put a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

The first of two legs was a one-sided affair which almost certainly sealed Bayern’s spot in the quarter-finals. When Harry Kane opened the scoring for Bayern in the ninth minute, it immediately became obvious that Leverkusen were in for a difficult night at the Allianz Arena. However, despite dominating every facet of the match, Bayern were somewhat surprisingly unable to further increase their lead before the half-time break.

This changed soon after the interval following Leverkusen goalkeeper Matěj Kovář’s fumble of a cross sent in by Bayern winger Kingsley Coman. Jamal Musiala was in just the right spot to take advantage - which he duly did to put Bayern 2-0 ahead. Eight minutes later, it got even tougher for Leverkusen when defender Nordi Mukiele was tossed after picking up a second yellow card.

Bayern put the finishing touch on the victory when Kane earned and converted a penalty in the 75th minute. The Bavarian club’s 3-0 win has now left Leverkusen with an almost-impossible task heading into the second leg at the BayArena; on only four occasions in Champions League history has a team overturned a three-goal deficit from the first leg to advance to the next round.

While there are many points to consider regarding this match, one of the most notable has to be about the circumstances which even made this match possible in the first place. Although UEFA have taken much criticism for a number of their decisions in recent years - often deservedly so at that - their tweaking of the Champions League format has proven to be a masterstroke.

By changing the format of the opening round to a Swiss bracket, the number of matches with “nothing on the line” has been greatly reduced, creating a considerably more competitive environment. It’s no longer a guarantee that powerhouse teams who are seen as potential title contenders can just roll up and stroll into the round of 16. They now have to earn it the hard way - something teams such as Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, and most dramatically of all, Manchester City will readily attest to.

That being said, I would suggest two ways by which the Swiss bracket can be further improved. First off, as things are now, the top eight teams automatically qualify for the round of 16 while the teams finishing from ninth to 24th enter the play-ins for the remaining eight berths. This ought to be changed so that the top 12 automatically advance to the last 16 while the play-ins should involve the teams from 13th to 20th place.

Additionally, making the bracket a “true Swiss bracket” would dial up the excitement even more. In this way, each team would not know their next opponent until a re-draw after each matchday. All teams would be paired according to win-loss records up to that point. By accounting for what is known as “resistance”, the competitiveness of the opening round would be taken up another notch.

As for the decision to allow teams of the same country to play against each other as soon as the knockout rounds begin, UEFA got this one spot-on. There was absolutely no reason whatsoever for the initial rule to have been in place—it appears to have essentially been instituted arbitrarily. Over the years, this rule has prevented some truly epic matchups from happening for basically no reason at all.

Although the one-sidedness of Bayern’s victory over Leverkusen might not necessarily serve as the best advocate for the efficacy of rescinding the rule, there’s no question that it’s been a net positive for the tournament. With the removal of this restriction, the knockout rounds now serve as a truer test of who most deserves to make it to the final.

Despite the initial mass dismay which was the general reaction to the Champions League’s format changes, it’s now become evident that they ought to have been implemented years ago. Sometimes, a mass overhaul is indeed necessary - as has been shown this season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 351: A Mid-Season Transfer Window to Forget Led to This

In what was likely the most important Serie A match to date this season, Napoli hosted Inter Milan in a clash which would see its winner climb into first place in the league. Neither team entered the match in good form - Napoli were winless over their preceding four matches while Inter had collected just seven points over their last five. Thus, this match was not only one which would allow the team comin out on top to deal a major blow against their main title rival; it would also get their season back on track after a recent slump.

As things turned out, however, neither team was able to rise to the moment as Napoli and Inter played to a 1-1 draw. Federico Dimarco opened the scoring for Inter with a free kick in the 22nd minute shortly after Inter had their claim for a penalty rejected following a collision in the penalty area between Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay and Denzel Dumfries. It was almost as though Dimarco took out his frustrations about the penalty being denied on the ball, burying it in the far corner to put the Nerazzurri a goal ahead.

However, that would be about as good as it would get for Inter. For the vast majority of the match and especially after Inter scored the opening goal, Napoli clearly dominated proceedings and launched shot after shot at the Inter net. It was thus rather surprising that the score remained 1-0 in Inter's favour at half-time.

Napoli continued to pour on the pressure throughout the second half and eventually, their persistence did pay off. With just three minutes of regulation time remaining, substitute Philip Billing couldn't finish off Stanislav Lobotka's pass; his shot was saved by Inter goalkeeper Josep Martínez. However, the ball came back to Billing; on the second attempt, the Danish midfielder slotted it in to ensure that Napoli would not finish the match empty-handed.

Despite the late equalizer, Napoli will certainly be looking at this result as a blown opportunity. Their recent downturn in form is no coincidence - it's come as a direct result of the departure of superstar winger Khvicha Kvaratshkelia to Paris Saint-Germain in the mid-season transfer window. At the time of his departure for the Parc des Princes, "Kvara" was clearly Napoli's best player. Napoli's failure to adequately replace him dealt a significant blow to their hopes of reclaiming the league title that they last won two seasons ago.

In addition, there have to be questions brought up over Victor Osimhen. After a hot start, Osimhen's replacement at centre-forward Romelu Lukaku has seen his form tail off dramatically in recent months. Osimhen, on the other hand, while playing on loan in the far weaker Süper Lig with Galatasaray on loan from Napoli this season, has sent his parent club a clear message as to what they're missing after having left the club in controversial circumstances. However, given everything that happened which led to the Nigerian being set on loan to Galatasaray, it's not partiularly likely that Osimhen will end up returning to Campania - something Napoli could deeply regret should they fail to win the league this season.

Going back to the Kvaratshkelia transfer to PSG, Napoli should have done more with the windfall they received from his departure. PSG signed the Georgian for a transfer fee of €70 million - a total which they could easily have put towards signing multiple new players. This would've represented an opportunity for Napoli to get the jump on Inter by bringing in one or more key players to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona; however, it was an opportunity that Napoli completely missed - and that might just cost them the league title.

Of course, a sense of perspective must still be kept. For all of this, Napoli are still just one point behind Inter in the race for the Scudetto. They're still coached by one of the best today in Antonio Conte; in addition, the signings from their highly fruitful off-season transfer window have picked up many key points for Napoli so far.

However, after having lost their Serie A lead to Inter during their ongoing winless streak, Napoli are no longer in the driver's seat as far as the Scudetto chase is concerned - and it's a direct result of everything that happened in the January transfer window.