The Weekly Take, Issue 353: The Clear Team to Beat Right Now

The most recent La Liga matchday was highlighted by a match which saw Atlético Madrid host Barcelona in a clash which would have major implications on this season’s title race. A win for Barça would put them in first place in the league - and even that after having played a game less than Real Madrid who would then be second.

As for Atlético, this match represented an opportunity to gain important ground on Barça. By beating their Catalan opponents, Atlético would move two points clear of them and just one point behind cross-town arch-rivals Real. In addition, this was also an opportunity for Atlético to bounce back after Real had just knocked them out of the Champions League’s round of 16 in a penalty shootout.

Atlético took the lead shortly before half-time. Julián Alvarez atoned for his crucial missed penalty in Atlético’s prior Champions League fixture by opening the scoring off a pass from Giuliano Simeone. By doing so, Alvarez punished Barça for blowing several key chances earlier in the half.

In the 70th minute, Alexander Sørloth made it 2-0 in Atlético’s favor and seemingly clinched the win over the Blaugrana. Having come off the bench, the Norwegian striker beat the offside trap to score Atlético’s second. At this point, it looked as though Atlético had it in the bag.

Remarkably, Barça flipped the script with two goals over the next eight minutes. Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres pulled Barça level, making this somewhat of an inverse to the first leg of the two teams’ recent Copa Del Rey semifinal when Barça surrendered a late two-goal lead to end up with a 4-4 draw.

Barça went on to complete the comeback in stoppage time. Lamine Yamal’s shot from outside the penalty area took a heavy deflection off Atlético defender Reinildo on its way into the back of the net. Torres would subsequently add his second and Barça’s fourth deep into the additional minutes to move a step closer to reclaiming the league title they surrendered to Real last season.

After a slump in November and December, Barça are once again firing on all cylinders. The victory over Atlético was their seventh in a row in the league; over that span, Barça have flooded opposing nets with 23 goals over those seven matches while conceding just five. They are unquestionably the hottest team on the planet right now and the clear favorites to not only win La Liga, but the Champions League as well following Liverpool’s shocking elimination in the round of 16. Barça’s molten-hot attack has been powering them almost all season long. Among teams in major European leagues, only Bayern Munich are averaging more goals per match - and that in a relatively easier league as well.

Additionally, a large part of Barça’s success this season has to do with their depth. Barça are probably the deepest team on the planet and on multiple occasions throughout the season, they’ve had one or more players come off the bench to make major impacts. This was once again the case against Atlético with two of their four goals scored by Torres who entered the game to replace Dani Olmo about halfway through the second half. It’s this depth which has put Barça in a position in which winning the Treble for an unprecedented third time in club history isn’t even out of the question.

Of course, for the team to remain at this level, star power is a must - and against Atlético, Barça’s ace winger Lamine Yamal turned in another outstanding performance. There’s a realistic chance that at just 17, Yamal has a legitimate chance to become the youngest player to ever win the Ballon d’Or. The La Masia alumnus is not only already Barça’s best player; there’s a case to be made that he’s among the top five players on the planet right now. Not only is Yamal already “that guy”; it’s mind-boggling to think of the level at which he could be in five or 10 years’ time.

Though the final stretch of the season is yet to unfold, Barcelona have clearly put themselves in a very strong position. There’s every chance that when their 2024-25 campaign is in the books, there will be multiple new additions to Barça’s trophy cabinet.

The Weekly Take, Issue 352: The Overhaul That Was Needed Years Ago

The abolition of the prior rule prohibiting teams from the same country from being drawn against each other in the early knockout rounds of the Champions League opened the door for the round of 16 fixture between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen to take place—the standout of the eight clashes which put a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.

The first of two legs was a one-sided affair which almost certainly sealed Bayern’s spot in the quarter-finals. When Harry Kane opened the scoring for Bayern in the ninth minute, it immediately became obvious that Leverkusen were in for a difficult night at the Allianz Arena. However, despite dominating every facet of the match, Bayern were somewhat surprisingly unable to further increase their lead before the half-time break.

This changed soon after the interval following Leverkusen goalkeeper Matěj Kovář’s fumble of a cross sent in by Bayern winger Kingsley Coman. Jamal Musiala was in just the right spot to take advantage - which he duly did to put Bayern 2-0 ahead. Eight minutes later, it got even tougher for Leverkusen when defender Nordi Mukiele was tossed after picking up a second yellow card.

Bayern put the finishing touch on the victory when Kane earned and converted a penalty in the 75th minute. The Bavarian club’s 3-0 win has now left Leverkusen with an almost-impossible task heading into the second leg at the BayArena; on only four occasions in Champions League history has a team overturned a three-goal deficit from the first leg to advance to the next round.

While there are many points to consider regarding this match, one of the most notable has to be about the circumstances which even made this match possible in the first place. Although UEFA have taken much criticism for a number of their decisions in recent years - often deservedly so at that - their tweaking of the Champions League format has proven to be a masterstroke.

By changing the format of the opening round to a Swiss bracket, the number of matches with “nothing on the line” has been greatly reduced, creating a considerably more competitive environment. It’s no longer a guarantee that powerhouse teams who are seen as potential title contenders can just roll up and stroll into the round of 16. They now have to earn it the hard way - something teams such as Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, and most dramatically of all, Manchester City will readily attest to.

That being said, I would suggest two ways by which the Swiss bracket can be further improved. First off, as things are now, the top eight teams automatically qualify for the round of 16 while the teams finishing from ninth to 24th enter the play-ins for the remaining eight berths. This ought to be changed so that the top 12 automatically advance to the last 16 while the play-ins should involve the teams from 13th to 20th place.

Additionally, making the bracket a “true Swiss bracket” would dial up the excitement even more. In this way, each team would not know their next opponent until a re-draw after each matchday. All teams would be paired according to win-loss records up to that point. By accounting for what is known as “resistance”, the competitiveness of the opening round would be taken up another notch.

As for the decision to allow teams of the same country to play against each other as soon as the knockout rounds begin, UEFA got this one spot-on. There was absolutely no reason whatsoever for the initial rule to have been in place—it appears to have essentially been instituted arbitrarily. Over the years, this rule has prevented some truly epic matchups from happening for basically no reason at all.

Although the one-sidedness of Bayern’s victory over Leverkusen might not necessarily serve as the best advocate for the efficacy of rescinding the rule, there’s no question that it’s been a net positive for the tournament. With the removal of this restriction, the knockout rounds now serve as a truer test of who most deserves to make it to the final.

Despite the initial mass dismay which was the general reaction to the Champions League’s format changes, it’s now become evident that they ought to have been implemented years ago. Sometimes, a mass overhaul is indeed necessary - as has been shown this season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 351: A Mid-Season Transfer Window to Forget Led to This

In what was likely the most important Serie A match to date this season, Napoli hosted Inter Milan in a clash which would see its winner climb into first place in the league. Neither team entered the match in good form - Napoli were winless over their preceding four matches while Inter had collected just seven points over their last five. Thus, this match was not only one which would allow the team comin out on top to deal a major blow against their main title rival; it would also get their season back on track after a recent slump.

As things turned out, however, neither team was able to rise to the moment as Napoli and Inter played to a 1-1 draw. Federico Dimarco opened the scoring for Inter with a free kick in the 22nd minute shortly after Inter had their claim for a penalty rejected following a collision in the penalty area between Napoli midfielder Scott McTominay and Denzel Dumfries. It was almost as though Dimarco took out his frustrations about the penalty being denied on the ball, burying it in the far corner to put the Nerazzurri a goal ahead.

However, that would be about as good as it would get for Inter. For the vast majority of the match and especially after Inter scored the opening goal, Napoli clearly dominated proceedings and launched shot after shot at the Inter net. It was thus rather surprising that the score remained 1-0 in Inter's favour at half-time.

Napoli continued to pour on the pressure throughout the second half and eventually, their persistence did pay off. With just three minutes of regulation time remaining, substitute Philip Billing couldn't finish off Stanislav Lobotka's pass; his shot was saved by Inter goalkeeper Josep Martínez. However, the ball came back to Billing; on the second attempt, the Danish midfielder slotted it in to ensure that Napoli would not finish the match empty-handed.

Despite the late equalizer, Napoli will certainly be looking at this result as a blown opportunity. Their recent downturn in form is no coincidence - it's come as a direct result of the departure of superstar winger Khvicha Kvaratshkelia to Paris Saint-Germain in the mid-season transfer window. At the time of his departure for the Parc des Princes, "Kvara" was clearly Napoli's best player. Napoli's failure to adequately replace him dealt a significant blow to their hopes of reclaiming the league title that they last won two seasons ago.

In addition, there have to be questions brought up over Victor Osimhen. After a hot start, Osimhen's replacement at centre-forward Romelu Lukaku has seen his form tail off dramatically in recent months. Osimhen, on the other hand, while playing on loan in the far weaker Süper Lig with Galatasaray on loan from Napoli this season, has sent his parent club a clear message as to what they're missing after having left the club in controversial circumstances. However, given everything that happened which led to the Nigerian being set on loan to Galatasaray, it's not partiularly likely that Osimhen will end up returning to Campania - something Napoli could deeply regret should they fail to win the league this season.

Going back to the Kvaratshkelia transfer to PSG, Napoli should have done more with the windfall they received from his departure. PSG signed the Georgian for a transfer fee of €70 million - a total which they could easily have put towards signing multiple new players. This would've represented an opportunity for Napoli to get the jump on Inter by bringing in one or more key players to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona; however, it was an opportunity that Napoli completely missed - and that might just cost them the league title.

Of course, a sense of perspective must still be kept. For all of this, Napoli are still just one point behind Inter in the race for the Scudetto. They're still coached by one of the best today in Antonio Conte; in addition, the signings from their highly fruitful off-season transfer window have picked up many key points for Napoli so far.

However, after having lost their Serie A lead to Inter during their ongoing winless streak, Napoli are no longer in the driver's seat as far as the Scudetto chase is concerned - and it's a direct result of everything that happened in the January transfer window.

The Weekly Take, Issue 350: Tactical Thoughts

This being another “milestone” post, I’ve decided to go with a more personal approach to this post - it’ll include some of my thoughts on the current state of the football “metagame” that some of you might disagree with - but which I nonetheless hold firmly to as of right now.

Without further ado:

The Most Important Position in the Game Is Defensive Midfielder

Defensive midfielder is arguably the most underappreciated position in any team sport. While centre-forwards, wingers, number 10s, and attacking midfielders always get the bulk of the spotlight, at the moment the most important position of all is the least stereotypically “glamorous” one. A number 6 who’s at the very least serviceable is a necessity for any team with genuine hopes of challenging for a Champions League title.

In the current meta, the defensive midfielder no longer serves as “just the first line of defense”. Modern defensive midfielders are also often the players who start the transition from defense to attack - though the “regista” archetype of defensive midfielder in the style of players like Fernando Redondo has largely fallen out of favour. The present-day defensive midfielder arguably requires a more diverse skillset than does any other position.

The importance of the position has been shown at its most striking this season via Manchester City’s struggles. Having lost reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri to a torn ACL early in the season, the Citizens have looked a shadow of the team which has dominated the Premier League and been a serious Champions League contender in recent years. If this had been any other player, City would not have struggled like this - their entire strategy can be said to be built around Rodri. Looking at other elite teams, though none are quite on Rodri’s level, the likes of Real Madrid’s Aurélien Tchouaméni, Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch, and Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich equally have indispensable roles for their respective teams. Once again, replace them with a player not close to their level and their teams would implode.

4-4-2 Is (Usually) Not It

There’s a very specific type of football fan who pines for the “good old days” of the 4-4-2 formation. In reality, however, there’s a very good reason why almost no one runs 4-4-2 anymore.

A flat midfield four is often incredibly rigid and inflexible. It often doesn’t leave much room for a “plan B” if the opponent finds a way to shut down the team’s general strategy. In addition, although the idea of dual centre-forwards might seem tempting on the surface to those looking for additional offensive firepower, this comes at the cost of playmaking. A classic 4-4-2 formation includes no number 10s - the position for which playmaking is the primary duty (more on this shortly). For that reason, a team that runs a 4-4-2 is almost always forced to go with a “number 10 by committee” approach - something which is often unlikely to work except in specific circumstances.

Right now, 4-4-2 is best used as a “pocket strat” against specific teams which it counters - and even then it should still be modified from the standard 4-4-2 such as in Manchester United’s 4-4-2 with dual false 9s in their FA Cup final upset victory over City.

Number 10s: “Adapt or Die”

Though “adapt or die” may be a cliché, it’s one which perfectly fits number 10s today. Old-school number 10s have been all but phased out of the meta. Every number 10 who is to remain at the top today must also be at least reasonably capable at either winger, attacking midfielder, or false 9.

In addition, the days of the “number 10 main” are looking increasingly numbered; most players who start at 10 these days are 8/10s rather than 10/8s. This is understandable when one considers the fact that it’s much easier for a young attacking midfielder to learn playmaking skills than it is for a young number 10 to learn box-to-box skills.

It can even be said that several number 10s who were once considered highly promising prospects but never quite lived up to the hype such as Ganso, Christian Pulisic, and Mario Götze were “born in the wrong era”: had they been in their prime in the 1990s or 2000s, they’d have gone on to be superstars; however, their playstyle was quite simply a poor fit for the modern football meta.

The Weekly Take, Issue 349: Does It Get Worse? Oh Yes, It Does

At the beginning of the season, anyone who would’ve said that Manchester City would find themselves close to elimination from the Champions League before the round of 16 while also being all the way back in fifth place in the Premier League, 15 points behind league leaders Liverpool, would have been roundly mocked - and understandably so. After all, the Citizens had not only won the last four domestic league titles in a row; they’d also made it to at least the quarterfinals of the last seven editions of the Champions League.

However, as has clearly been seen in what’s been City’s worst season in a very long time, the blue half of Manchester hit another low with a 3-2 home loss in the first leg of their Champions League round of 24 fixture against Real Madrid.

The match started well for City. In the 19th minute, Erling Haaland finished off a well-constructed sequence in which he’d already played a part in creating after getting on the end of a Jack Grealish pass via an additional touch from Joško Gvardiol who was credited with the assist. Following the goal, Real started pushing much harder and although their efforts went unrewarded for the rest of the first half, Kylian Mbappé scored with an unconventional volley in the 60th minute.

With a little over 10 minutes of regulation time left, Real midfielder Dani Ceballos who’d earlier set up Mbappé’s goal fouled Phil Foden in the penalty area, allowing Haaland to step forward and convert the penalty to put City 2-1 ahead. However, as they’ve done so many times before, Real found a way to gut out the win. Six minutes after Haaland’s penalty, Brahim Díaz scored against his former club - a follow-up attempt after Ederson saved a shot from fellow Brazilian Vinícius Júnior before Jude Bellingham put the ball into an empty net in stoppage time to clinch the win for Real and leave City with a lot to do in the second leg in the Spanish capital if they’re to avoid missing out on the last 16 for the first time since the 2012-13 season.

A lot has already been written about City’s remarkable decline this season. However, the whole thing hinges on one man and one particular moment.

On 22 September 2024, City and Arsenal played out a 2-2 draw in the Premier League. The most important moment of the match - in fact, arguably the entire season - occurred when City’s superstar defensive midfielder Rodri tore his ACL, ruling him out for the rest of the season. Almost immediately, City’s level of play plummeted and has stayed down since.

It comes down to this: for all the money they’ve spent and all the talent in their squad, City’s entire strategy ultimately revolved around Rodri prior to the Spaniard’s injury; he was the piece that made it all work. It’s often mentioned that City’s win rate with Rodri is higher than that without him by a massive margin; they don’t seem to have a backup plan sans Rodri.

This brings us to Pep Guardiola who has coached City since 2016. There’s no question that this is the toughest test of his illustrious coaching career thus far - and remarkably, despite the fact that Guardiola is a legitimate GOAT candidate, it’s a test that Guardiola is failing so far. On many occasions this season, the Catalan has appeared utterly bereft of ideas. To make matters worse, City haven’t adjusted at all and have instead looked worse and worse with each passing week - and for that, Guardiola has to receive much blame.

Finally, City’s transfer window strategy has to be scrutinized. Time and again, City haven’t brought in players with skillsets who would’ve been able to be plugged into the squad fairly easily in Rodri’s absence. As such, City’s squad is now rather unbalanced especially in midfield - and this has been a major reason why the loss of one player all but sank them.

Even if Manchester City somehow turn it around in the second leg and advance to the round of 16, based on everything we’ve seen from them this season their odds of winning the Champions League for the second time in three seasons are extremely unlikely. The way things seem right now, there seems to be no end to their ongoing woes in sight.

The Weekly Take, Issue 348: Indicative of Greater Struggles or Rounding Into Form Just in Time?

Before their blockbuster Champions League clash against Manchester City, Real Madrid first had to get through the Madrid derby in the league. This was an especially high-stakes derby because cross-town rivals Atlético Madrid trailed Real by just one point in the league. The winner of the match would leave the Santiago Bernabéu top of the league and deal a severe blow to their rivals’ title chances.

As things turned out, though, both teams finished as they started; the match ended in a 1-1 draw. After a little over a half-hour was played, French midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni surrendered Real’s first penalty of the season after fouling Atlético’s Samuel Lino who’d been attempting to finish off a cross played in by Javi Galán. Julián Alvarez then stepped forward to convert the penalty.

Atlético carried their lead into the half-time break; however, it didn’t take Real much time after the interval to score the equalizing goal. After Jude Bellingham’s initial shot was blocked, Kylian Mbappé was right in position to finish off the follow-up attempt. Following this, Real went on to firmly control the match throughout the second half but, as so many have found over the years, Diego Simeone’s Atlético team are probably the most difficult team to chip away at; their frequent attacks on the Atlético net following Mbappé’s goal yielded nothing further.

Although Real might currently be in first place in La Liga, that doesn’t tell the whole story. This has certainly been a more difficult campaign for Real than what they’d likely have envisioned when the season began. Real started their league season slowly and only recently took the lead for the first time this season; for most of it they’d been playing catch-up to Atlético and Barcelona. Real’s early-season struggles were punctuated by a 4-0 loss to Barça in El Clásico and arguably encapsulated by Mbappé’s slump which ended up costing them several wins.

However, this doesn’t even compare to what they’ve been through in the league phase of the Champions League. After losing three of four matches, Real were dangerously close to not even making it to the round of 24; they were in 24th place after five matchdays before winning their last three to set up a highly anticipated match against City for a spot in the last 16.

While it’s true that this season hasn’t even been close to peak Real, that may be all that’s needed to win them the league title for the fourth time in the last six seasons. Real are currently on pace to finish the season with 83 points in the league. The last time a total that low would’ve won La Liga was almost two decades ago in the 2006-07 season. That being said, due to Atlético’s and Barça’s own inconsistent form, Real have only needed to be “just better than” the two other title contenders.

Needless to say, performances on this level won’t cut it if Real are to make a genuine run at defending their Champions League title. Although their next opponents have had obvious struggles of their own this season to the point at which most are expecting Real to come out on top against City, it almost certainly won’t be enough against the gauntlet of opponents to come after.

With that in mind, is it possible that Real have been starting to turn the corner and are peaking at just the right time? Heading into the derby, Real had won four of their last five in the league to move into first place; as mentioned earlier, they also finished the league phase of the Champions League with three wins in a row. So many times over the years we’ve seen Real ramp it up and come into form down the final stretch of the season. This could easily be the case once again.

It’s astonishing to think that even in a “down year”, Real Madrid could conceivably end up winning both La Liga and the Champions League. That said, such an outcome isn’t likely to take place with more performances like theirs against Atlético in the derby. However, by now everyone knows better than to dismiss Real way too early - after all, there’s a reason they’re the winningest football club of all time.

The Weekly Take, Issue 347: All That xG for Nothing

The latest edition of the Derby della Madonnina was a high-stakes encounter for both Milan clubs - but for different reasons. For AC Milan, this match represented an opportunity to close the gap to Juventus who are currently in fourth place in Serie A and thus occupying the last Champions League qualification berth. As for Inter Milan, a win would move them one point behind league leaders Napoli after having played one match less.

The derby ended up in a 1-1 draw - a result which left neither club satisfied. Tijjani Reijnders opened the scoring for Milan shortly before the end of the first half - a goal which came largely against the run of play. Throughout the second half, Inter continued to apply the pressure but couldn’t finish off the many goalscoring opportunities they created. Not only that - within a second-half span of just under 25 minutes, Inter struck the post thrice - once each via Yann Bisseck, Marcus Thuram, and Denzel Dumfries. Even before that, Inter had three goals waved off for offside.

It wasn’t until stoppage time when the Nerazzurri finally made their breakthrough. Substitute Bisseck sent in a cross towards the far post which Polish defender Nicola Zalewski, who had himself come off the bench as well, took on the chest in the direction of Stefan de Vrij who put it in the net from close range.

Despite eventually scoring the equalizer, Inter would certainly have been frustrated with the match’s outcome to say the least. Inter were in almost total control of the match right from opening kick-off - to have three goals ruled out for offside, then to hit the post three times is almost unheard of. Going beyond even that, Inter missed a massive opportunity to deal a significant blow to Napoli in the title race. Earlier in the day, Napoli had only managed a 1-1 draw against Roma in the Derby del Sole after Spanish full-back Angeliño scored Roma’s equalizer in stoppage time.

No team has won the Scudetto in consecutive seasons since Juve’s unprecedented run of nine league titles in a row from the 2011-12 to 2019-20 seasons; Inter themselves haven’t done it since they won five straight from 2005-06 to 2009-10. The last of those five league titles was part of their legendary Treble-winning season.

Those who have been paying close attention to Inter’s season thus far will have picked up on the fact that for a team of their calibre, they tend to get caught offside relatively frequently. This has been a major issue throughout the season and has cost them valuable points over the course of the season - including in this match against their cross-town arch-rivals. It’s an issue which even this late into the season, Inter will have to somehow resolve if they’re to seriously push Napoli and go back-to-back.

Inter didn’t sign any new players in the recently concluded mid-season transfer window. If Inter end up failing to defend their Serie A title, it’s entirely conceivable that they’ll look back on that and rue a missed opportunity. This is especially the case because during that same transfer window, Napoli sold Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, their best player, to PSG for a transfer fee of €70 million while not replacing him with anyone of note. This should have been a chance for Inter to get a leg up on their title rivals; instead, they might very well have let the chance pass them by.

That being said, there’s an obvious positive that Inter can take from this match; it’s one which has equally applied to many of their matches this season and is a big reason why they’re even in this position to begin with. Inter clearly excel at turning possession and pressure into xG; their derby xG was almost two and a half times Milan’s. It’s why they comfortably lead the league in goals scored; usually, all those high-quality chances do translate into goals. Matches like this one can be regarded as something of an outlier.

Though Inter Milan’s derby draw isn’t that severe of a blow to their title hopes on the surface, it could end up being a turning point as they not only failed to beat their arch-nemesis; Inter let Napoli off the hook as well. As the  home stretch beckons, this could have turned out to be a crucial two points dropped.