The Weekly Take, Issue 296: The End of an Era Approaches

For quite some time now, at the beginning of every Bundesliga season it was more or less assumed that Bayern Munich would finish the season with the league trophy in hand. This has been true for an unprecedented 11 seasons in a row - but this streak seems as though it could finally end this season.

Bayern collapsed to a 3-0 loss against Bayer Leverkusen, causing them to slip five points behind their opponents. Josip Stanišić, playing for Leverkusen on a loan deal from Bayern, opened the scoring in the 18th minute. It got even worse after the break; just five minutes after the interval, Álex Grimaldo doubled the Rhine club's lead. In stoppage time, Jeremie Frimpong dealt the final blow to leave Bayern in an unfamiliar position - one in which the Bundesliga title seems farther away than it has been for them in years.

For one thing, Leverkusen are playing like an unstoppable juggernaut. Almost halfway through February, Leverkusen have not lost even one match in any competition this season. If Leverkusen maintain their current blistering pace, there is little to no chance of Bayern being able to catch them.

That being said, there have been clear issues at Bayern which have hampered their title hopes all season long. Chief among these is perhaps the guy in the dugout - one wonders if head coach Thomas Tuchel has by now worn out his welcome at the Allianz Arena. On multiple occasions this season, Tuchel has made questionable tactical decisions which have likely caused Bayern to drop cheap points. Such was once again the case against Leverkusen. Tuchel eschewed his usual 4-2-3-1 formation in favour of a 3-4-2-1 "pocket strat" to mirror the setup of his opposite number Xabi Alonso. Needless to say, this unconventional choice backfired spectacularly. Bayern's ownership group have since confirmed that Tuchel will not be fired any time soon. That could end up being the decision that sinks the Bavarian club's attempt to win the league for the 12th straight season.

Bayern's overdependence on Leroy Sané and Harry Kane has also revealed itself as a clear problem. Bayern haven't been getting enough offensive output from anyone besides their two superstars. The duo of Sané and Kane have combined for 32 of Bayern's 59 league goals as well as 16 assists. Such a skewed ratio is almost certainly not sustainable - particularly if one or even both picks up an injury down the stretch run of the season or happen to hit a slump. Neither were at their best against Leverkusen and once again, nobody stepped up to pick up the slack. Bayern's xG of 0.57 really says it all - they couldn't get anything working up front.

Although Bayern have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league thus far this season, they've nonetheless given up many cheap goalscoring chances along the way but haven't always been punished for doing so. This, however, was an example of such. Despite having 61% of the possession against Leverkusen, Bayern let Leverkusen attempt 14 shots of which eight were on target. While it does appear that Bayern tried to address this during the January transfer window by signing two defenders - Sacha Boey from Galatasaray and Eric Dier on a loan deal from Tottenham Hotspur - it's evident that neither signing has really moved the needle. Even the off-season signing of Kim Min-jae from Napoli hasn't had the impact for which Bayern would have hoped.

Although Bayern won the league last season, there were already signs of a decline as they almost surrendered a large lead to Borussia Dortmund. Considering that last season's Dortmund are clearly a tier below this season's Leverkusen as well as the fact that all of the issues which Bayern faced down the final weeks of last season are finally coming to a head, it's no wonder that Bayern are struggling to defend their league title.

Of course, history has shown us that Bayern Munich can never be counted out until they are mathematically out of the title race. However, this season such a scenario appears more and more likely with each passing matchday. At this point, bringing the Bundesliga trophy back to the Allianz Arena looks like a tall order indeed.

The Weekly Take, Issue 295: Let Off the Hook - But for How Long?

Unlike what has often been the case over the past decade, this iteration of the Madrid derby did not feature a Real Madrid and an Atlético Madrid team which were both in contention for the league title. Heading into the match, Atlético were in fourth place in La Liga and 10 points behind their cross-town rivals who topped the league. This has unquestionably been one of the most difficult seasons at the Wanda Metropolitano ever since they established themselves as a genuine powerhouse of Spanish football.

Somewhat surprisingly, Atlético left the Santiago Bernabéu with a share of the points following a 1-1 draw despite having been clearly outplayed throughout the match. Brahim Díaz marked an outstanding individual performance with an early goal to put Real one goal ahead at half-time. A few minutes after the interval, Atlético believed that they'd equalized after Stefan Savić headed the ball into the net from Antoine Griezmann header. However, it did not count as a VAR check revealed that Atlético midfielder Saúl Ñíguez was offside.

Although Real continued to dictate play and control proceedings, they would eventually be shockingly denied all three points in stoppage time. Marcos Llorente's goal ensure that if nothing else, Atlético would at least put the brakes on Real's league title bid and prevent them from taking advantage of Girona's prior 0-0 draw against Real Sociedad.

However, this result did not benefit either team. Atlético are attempting to stay in the top four and thereby clinch a spot in next season's Champions League. This derby draw saw their lead over fifth-placed Athletic Bilbao cut to three points after the Basque club destroyed Mallorca 4-0. While it's certainly not time to panic yet, Atlético's 11-year Champions League qualification streak is now in actual jeopardy.

In truth, Atlético can count themselves rather fortunate to have managed a draw. Most of the time, being outplayed by such a clear margin would result in a decisive loss. The match against Real highlighted several issues which have plagued Atlético all season long. As has so often been the case this season, Atlético allowed their opponents the freedom to create far too many goalscoring opportunities. While they might have been let off the hook this time, that won't always be the case - indeed, it's exactly this which has cost them many points this season.

One-on-one defense has also been a problem for Atlético this season. In this match, Real's first goal was a direct result of sub-par one-on-one defense. Twice during the build-up, a Real player was left with way too much room, allowing them to set up the next pass in the move which led to Brahim's opening goal. Historically speaking, this has been something of an outlier as ever since Diego Simeone first took over in the dugout back in 2011. Simeone's tactics have always favoured a tight defensive approach - the squads of 2014 to 2021 almost never committed such errors like that.

Atlético's dismal away form has to be their biggest cause for concern. While every team does perform better at home, Atlético have amassed just 14 of their 48 league points on the road. Should they continue to hand out cheap points left, right, and centre while on their travels, it certainly won't be easy to hang on to fourth place in the league.

Of course, there's still time for Atlético to right the ship and solidify their place in the top four. They are yet to play Barcelona and Girona for the second time in the league this season. Additionally, a deep Champions League run is still not out of the question; however, Atlético are the clear underdogs heading into their round of 16 tie against Inter Milan. Unless things change soon, this could end up becoming perhaps Atlético's most disappointing season of the hitherto tremendously successful Simeone era.

At this moment, Atlético Madrid have achieved more than enough in recent times to have earned themselves the benefit of the doubt. However, ultimately sports is about "what have you done for me lately?" Atlético just aren't the force they were even three years ago. It's clear that if they have to keep relying on stronger rivals failing to finish the job, it will likely not end well for them this season.

The Weekly Take, Issue 294: Perhaps A Step Too Far for Now?

A recent Serie A match which saw Fiorentina host Inter Milan saw two distinct storylines in play. For Fiorentina, it was an opportunity to make a move in the race for a berth in next season’s Champions League while also capturing a statement victory against a title contender. Inter, meanwhile, had the chance to retake the lead at the top of the league table with a win.

Inter ultimately prevailed by a 1-0 scoreline with Lautaro Martínez scoring his league-leading 19th league goal of the season. The Argentinian centre-forward’s breakout season continued; he continues to be the primary driving force behind Inter’s charge towards reclaiming the Scudetto from cross-town rivals AC Milan.

As for Fiorentina, this loss was a notable body blow in their quest to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in 15 years. With fourth and 10th place in the league separated by just five points, the last Champions League berth from Serie A is well and truly up for grabs - and certainly, Fiorentina can’t let their ongoing mini-slump in which they’ve collected just one point from three matches extend if they are to make the top four.

Although Fiorentina have finished fourth in the league thrice since the last time they made the Champions League, Serie A only awarded three Champions League qualification spots during those years, thus confining Fiorentina to the Europa League.

Given the wholesale changes that Fiorentina made to their roster during the off-season, the club entered this season with something of a blank slate. Fiorentina signed six players and added another on loan for a combined fee of over €43 million - a total funded by the permanent and loan departures of a whopping 20 players. Somewhat surprisingly, Fiorentina received less than one might expect for all these departures - a cumulative transfer fee of a tick under €54 million.

With the January transfer window coming to an end, Fiorentina have only really been linked with one possible signing - Tottenham Hotspur winger Bryan Gil. The Spaniard has an expected transfer value of around €16 million and has hardly had any playing time at all this season. While not a guarantee, Gil could arguably make his way into Fiorentina’s starting 11 - perhaps as soon as next season. However, there hasn’t seemed to be much concrete action on this move from either the North London club or Fiorentina on this possible signing.

Fiorentina’s struggles up front have been a cause for concern all season long. The Tuscan club have scored just 29 goals over their 21 league matches to date; in addition, no Fiorentina player has scored more than six league goals. To make matters even more worrying, their strikers have been misfiring ever since the beginning of the season. Centre-forwards Lucas Beltrán and M’Bala Nzola have combined for just six league goals - a figure that almost certainly won’t cut it when the race for the top four comes down to the wire, as it almost certainly will. Additionally, with so many clubs in contention for a Champions League spot, there’s a possibility that it could come down to goal difference. Fiorentina’s less than impressive tally in this statistic could end up coming back to haunt them.

From a tactical standpoint, Fiorentina have been somewhat vulnerable from out wide. This issue was once again exposed against Inter; Lautaro’s winning goal was a header from a corner kick. Ever since becoming Fiorentina head coach in 2021, Vincenzo Italiano has prioritized keeping a high line and pressing. While this strategy has had its benefits, they have sometimes gone too far in terms of keeping things compact, leaving them vulnerable out wide. Although this might not have been exactly the case against Inter as the only goal came from a corner kick, this is an issue which has largely been inadequately addressed since the beginning of the season.

Admittedly, when this season started Fiorentina weren’t widely tipped to be contenders for a spot in the top four, so this season has been a success so far in that respect. However, with things as tight as they are, every club that misses out on the final Champions League spot will almost certainly lament a blown opportunity. While Fiorentina are certainly still in the mix, they can’t afford too many more lapses like what we just saw against Inter.

The Weekly Take, Issue 293: A Historic Achievement on the Horizon

For many years, Bayer Leverkusen have been the punchline of the Bundesliga. A team mocked as one which could never seal the deal under pressure - the perpetual chokers under pressure to the extent that they have been bestowed the pejorative nickname "Neverkusen". This isn't surprising given the fact that in their history of 120 years, Leverkusen have just two trophies to their name - the UEFA Cup in 1987-88 and the DFB-Pokal in 1992-93.

However, this season everything could be changing for Die Werkself. Leverkusen's 3-2 victory over RB Leipzig put Leverkusen in a commanding position at the summit of the Bundesliga. An early goal scored by Xavi Simons put Leipzig one goal up heading into half-time. The match moved into another gear after the interval; Nathan Tella's equalizer was rapidly answered by Loïs Openda who restored Leipzig's lead, only for centre-back Jonathan Tah to score the equalizer seven minutes later. Leverkusen completed the comeback after Piero Hincapié's winning goal in stoppage time.

It's plainly obvious that this season's version is nothing like Bayer Leverkusen teams of the past. While there are several other reasons why such is the case, the largest portion of the credit has to go to Xabi Alonso. Ever since taking over in the dugout in 2022, Alonso has quickly established himself as one of European football's best young coaches. Last season, it was largely thanks to Alonso that the Rhine club climbed from the relegation zone to sixth place at the end of the campaign. Since then, Alonso's tactical prowess has helped Leverkusen take it to a new level. After more than half of the league season, the only points Leverkusen have dropped came in three draws - hence their current seven-point lead.

Alonso's preferred 3-4-3 formation has become something of a calling card, and for good reason. The team's emphasis on possession, a stat in which Leverkusen rank second in the Bundesliga, has yielded major dividends. Of course, it has to be mentioned that possession alone isn't a determinant of wins and losses. With this in mind, Leverkusen are also one of the most productive teams when in possession. Leverkusen top the league in passes in the opponent's half and total number of touches; they're also ranked behind Bayern Munich alone in pass completion rate.

Leverkusen's vast amount of high-quality possession has subsequently led to notable benefits in the final third. Perhaps the key to Leverkusen's success up front has been balance - excluding own goals by opponents, Leverkusen's league-leading 50 goals have been scored by 13 different players with five of them thus far having scored five or more goals. Leverkusen are not only creating high-quality chances as shown by their xG (second in the league), they are doing so with an impressive regularity. After gaining possession, Leverkusen tend to embark on high-speed counterattacks that culminate in the creation of one or more goalscoring chances. It should thus come as no surprise that centre-forward Victor Boniface has attempted more shots on goal than any other Bundesliga player this season.

Adding to this, Leverkusen absolutely crushed it in the off-season transfer window. The signings of Álex Grimaldo, Boniface, Granit Xhaka, and Jonas Hofmann for a combined total of €55 million have proven to be masterstrokes. All four have slotted into the starting 11 seamlessly and probably been the most significant on-field contributors to Leverkusen's success this season. Although Leverkusen aren't expected to make any major moves in this January transfer window, that might not even matter. As things stand, Leverkusen boast a cohesive unit with clearly defined roles and therefore might not want to risk introducing any uncertainty to what is becoming a very special season indeed.

Of course, it can't be overlooked that Leverkusen's success might not last long beyond this season. Several of the club's best players are already garnering attention from larger and wealthier clubs while Alonso has a contract clause which might see him leave the BayArena at the end of the season. That being said, none of this downplays the incredible things that have been happening at Leverkusen this season.

No club other than Bayern has won the Bundesliga since the 2011-12 season. Bayer Leverkusen are now in prime position to change that statistic while also being well-positioned to potentially win the Europa League as well. This season, there hasn't been a team which has drawn attention like Leverkusen have - and deservedly so.

The Weekly Take, Issue 292: Hitting Their Stride - But Still Room for Improvement

AC Milan kept their slight Serie A title chances alive by beating Roma 3-1, remaining in third place in the league and nine points behind league leaders and cross-town rivals Inter Milan.

Early in the first half, Yacine Adli put the Rossoneri one goal ahead before Olivier Giroud doubled Milan's lead soon after the interval. Roma reduced the deficit after Leandro Paredes dispatched a penalty following Davide Calabria's foul on Lorenzo Pellegrini. Six minutes from the end of regulation time, Milan sealed the victory after Giroud set up Theo Hernández, who emphatically buried his first-time shot from the edge of the penalty area.

Milan's victory sent a clear message to Inter and Juventus: they cannot be ruled out of the Scudetto race by any means. Having overcome a recent slump, Milan have now won four of their last five league matches and are playing arguably their best football thus far this season. During this recent hot streak, Milan also picked up an impressive Champions League away win against Newcastle United to ensure that despite their elimination from the tournament, Milan would nevertheless finish third in Group F and enter the Europa League's round of 32.

A pivotal reason behind the uptick in Milan's recent level of play has been the improved play of their off-season acquisitions who have become increasingly comfortable in the red half of the city. Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Tijjani Reijnders are playing at a level well above that of earlier in the season, while the acquisition of Christian Pulisic from Chelsea for €20 million is beginning to look like a masterstroke. The American midfielder has looked like a player reborn after his struggles at Stamford Bridge and been arguably Milan's best player this season.

Earlier this season following Milan's loss to Inter in the Derby della Madonnina, I criticized Milan head coach Stefano Pioli for his questionable tactical approaches and tendency to overthink the situation to the detriment of his team. This has not been the case in recent weeks, and this trend continued against Roma. Pioli's substitutions were on point throughout and his tactics kept Roma largely neutralized for much of the match. Much of the early-season buzz surrounding Pioli's potential firing has somewhat quietened; if he can stay on this path for the next several weeks, he will almost certainly survive until the end of the season.

Should the club owners choose to pull the plug on Pioli's tenure at the end of the season, the possibility of Antonio Conte's hiring would become a very real one. A four-time Serie A champion with Juve and Inter, Conte would bring stability and consistency to Milan. Despite his ties to Milan's two arch-rivals, Conte is by far the preferred choice of most Milan fans as to who should succeed Pioli in the dugout. However, one sticking point could be transfer budget matters. Conte has typically preferred to work with larger transfer budgets - and this could end up being a turn-off to the club's ownership.

This segues into the next point. As of right now, Milan are very much still a work in progress. However, Milan have not been linked with any players of particular note during this January transfer window. Last month, it had been claimed that Milan were most interested in adding a centre-back, centre-forward, left-back, and central midfielder. Thus far, though, Milan have only landed one player: right-back Filippo Tetracciano, signed from Hellas Verona for €4.5 million - not a splashy signing by any means. Other names which have been thrown around include Juan Miranda, Assan Ouédraogo, Jakub Kiwior, and Benoît Badiashile - the latter two on loan deals; however, none are even remotely likely to move the needle much.

In some ways, AC Milan's match against Roma served as a microcosm of their season to date. They're not in an awful position per se and have been trending in the right direction. That being said, Milan are at still at risk of another season that fizzles out. They're still unlikely to win either Serie A or the Europa League. If nothing else, at least a top-four spot is, barring a late-season collapse, all but safe. It could thus be said that this season sees Milan in a "no man's land" - but the real question will be what they do after it.

The Weekly Take, Issue 291: An Ugly Victory - and a Turning Point?

With the La Liga season now at its halfway point, Barcelona kept their flagging league title hopes alive with a 2-1 away victory against Las Palmas. Barça actually trailed at half-time following Munir El Haddadi's 12th-minute opener for their Canarian opponents. Ten minutes after the break, Ferran Torres equalized for the Blaugrana. A back-and-forth match came to a dramatic conclusion in stoppage time after Las Palmas substitute Daley Sinkgraven committed a last-man penalty area foul on İlkay Gündoğan. Sinkgraven was promptly sent off before Gündoğan converted the penalty to give the Catalan club all three points.

This season, things have not quite gone according to plan for Barça. As things stand, they are seven points behind league leaders Real Madrid and have been going through a run of sub-par performances - including this most recent match, despite the victory. This is the first time in almost two months that Barça have won consecutive league matches. Even then, both victories were achieved in rather unconvincing fashion. Barça also came close to losing first place in their Champions League group after losing two of their last three group matches - against Shakhtar Donetsk and Royal Antwerp respectively.

Following a dominant 2022-23 league campaign which saw them win La Liga by a 10-point margin over arch-rivals Real, Barça have been inconsistent for the majority of this season. Arguably the main cause of Barça's decline this season has been their sub-optimal defensive play, particularly when defending against counter-attacks. In their loss to surprise league title contenders and fellow Catalan club Girona, all four goals that Barça conceded were scored on counter-attacks. Several other losses in the league and Champions League were also caused by this same shortcoming.

Further exacerbating Barça's drop-off is the diminished performance of multiple key players including Jules Koundé, Alejandro Balde, Robert Lewandowski, and most notably of all, Marc-André ter Stegen. Schematic and tactical tweaks, unnecessary line-up rotations, ongoing changes in the metagame, and in Lewandowski's case, an age-related decline have been among the factors causing these downturns. Though it's certainly possible that the players involved could turn it around, the damage might already have been done. Overhauling a seven-point deficit against a powerhouse like Real is a tall order indeed.

Additionally, Barça's financial difficulties adversely impacted their ability to add to their roster in the off-season. The club spent just €3.4 million to sign midfielder from Girona while also bringing in Gündoğan and Iñigo Martínez on free transfers. To say that such a haul is paltry for a club of Barça's stature would be a severe understatement. While this issue has been somewhat alleviated with the acquisition of Brazilian striker Vitor Roque from Athletico Paranaense earlier this week, Roque's impact on the team, at least in the short term, is likely to be somewhat limited.

All of that being said, the match against Las Palmas did provide some positive signs. Barça showed a level of grit and tenacity that had been sorely lacking from so many matches this season as they battled back from one goal behind. Barça's midfield also once again proved that the loss of Gavi for the season after a torn ACL has not had the damaging impact one might have assumed; fellow midfielders Gündoğan and Frenkie de Jong have probably been Barça's two best players this season and both turned in excellent displays to keep Barça's league title defense alive.

One player with whom Barça have been linked is Genoa defender Radu Drăgușin. The Romanian has been having a breakout season after the Ligurian side turned his loan deal into a permanent one during the off-season. At just 21, Drăgușin could be a potential long-term solution at centre-back while also covering for the declined performance of Barça's defense this season. Drăgușin, valued at approximately €20 million, could turn out to be a highly impactful pickup.

In spite of Barcelona's struggles this season, there is a path for them to salvage this season. Although Barça might not be the favourites in either La Liga or the Champions League, they can at least avoid falling too far adrift of the league title race while also making a deep run in Europe. While a significant improvement from what we have seen from them this season is required, could it be possible that Barça might be starting to turn the corner? It remains to be seen - but it's not out of the question.

The Weekly Take, Issue 290: Last Season Was Just an Anomaly

Liverpool have moved into first place in the Premier League after a 4-2 victory over a slumping Newcastle United. All six goals were scored in the second half with Mohamed Salah's two goals, including one from the penalty spot, not only sealing the victory but also putting Salah level with Manchester City striker Erling Haaland in the race for the league's top scorer award; both now have 14 league goals this season.

Having endured a difficult 2022-23 season which saw them fail to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since the 2015-16 season, Liverpool have undoubtedly bounced back. During the past off-season, the Reds embarked on a large-scale overhaul following the departures of multiple key players. Despite signing just four players, Liverpool spent a significant amount of money to bring them to Anfield - over £140 million in total with the standout signings being Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister.

Despite such a large outlay, however, the majority of Liverpool's success this season has been driven by a resurgence from the players they already had, with the notable exception of Szoboszlai who has more than hit the ground running since his arrival. Virgil van Dijk has arguably been playing at his highest level since his ACL tear in 2020, while Trent Alexander-Arnold has reclaimed his spot as the best full-back in the Premier League.

Even the much-criticized Darwin Núñez has been solid. After a difficult first season at Liverpool, the Uruguayan striker has started to find himself in more of a playmaking role - something which has seemed to work for him this season. Although Núñez isn't any more prolific in front of goal, he has already amassed six assists in league play with just over half the season completed.

And then there's the main man himself. Salah is on pace for what might be his best individual season in his already legendary Liverpool career. Currently leading the league in goals and assists, Salah is unquestionably the leading contender to win his third PFA Player of the Year award. At this point, Salah is not only part of Liverpool's Mount Rushmore - there should now be a genuine discussion about whether the Egyptian is the greatest player in the club's storied history.

Before the season began, many assumed that as has so often been the case in recent years, City would pull away from the pack and run away with the league title. This has certainly not been the case - and on top of that, the only club in the past six seasons to have broken City's stranglehold on the Premier League is the one which tops the league right now. Unlike Arsenal or Aston Villa, many of Liverpool's players know what it takes to win the league title and have been through countless duels with the Citizens which their counterparts from other title rivals have not - and that could very well make all the difference.

That being said, a highly pressing issue is once again about to befall Liverpool. Salah will soon depart for Côte d'Ivoire to represent his country in the Africa Cup of Nations. If Liverpool are able to remain in the lead or within touching distance of it once Salah returns from AFCON, they would certainly have a realistic chance of denying City an unprecedented fourth consecutive league title. However, a significant drop-off following Salah's departure could ruin their bid to equal arch-rivals Manchester United's tally of 20 league titles.

It might be advisable for Liverpool to pursue anpther striker, most likely one who would come on a loan deal, during the January transfer window to give their attacking force the short-term boost it needs. The next few weeks will be critical towards Liverpool's title challenge - both on the field and in the transfer market.

It's clear by now that for Liverpool, the struggles of last season were an outlier. The last time they were playing this well for an extended period like this were in their 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons when they won a Premier League and a Champions League title. But can they take it all the way and win the league once again? It remains to be seen; however, at the moment things are trending towards "why not them?"