The Weekly Take, Issue 245: This Season's Overlooked Dark Horse Contender

It has been 19 years since a team from outside one of Europe's major football leagues won the Champions League. In 2004, Porto stunned the world of football with an astonishing underdog run to the title. Since then, the gap between the major leagues and the rest has grown exponentially to the point at which many wondered if such a triumph will ever happen again.

However, although it is not necessarily the most likely outcome, a title for "the little guys" cannot completely be ruled out this season. The team I'm referring to is Benfica, whose 2-0 win over Club Brugge in their first-leg Champions League round of 16 match all but put them into the tournament's quarterfinals for the second season in a row. João Mário's goal from the penalty spot shortly after half-time would be followed by one from David Neres two minutes before the end of regulation time.

Given the recent history of the Champions League, it's perfectly understandable why essentially no one at all picked Benfica to go all the way. But upon closer inspection, this is a squad which, if everything falls into place, might just reveal themselves as genuine dark horse contenders to win it all.

Benfica's formidable defense has been a key, if not the key, driving force behind their success this season. The highly underrated Spanish left-back Álex Grimaldo has been perhaps their best player this season. Accompanied by veteran centre-back and captain Nicolás Otamendi, rising star António Silva, and off-season acquisition Alexander Bah, Benfica's air-tight defense has conceded a meagre 12 goals in 22 Primeira Liga matches this season.

In both the off-season and mid-season transfer windows, Benfica put on an absolute masterclass. During the off-season, the Lisbon club signed Neres for €15.3 million, Bah for €8.6 million, and most notably of all, Enzo Fernández for €10 million. What makes these signings even more impressive is the fact that none of them came from a major European league; they arrived from Shakhtar Donetsk, Slavia Prague, and River Plate respectively.

To top it off, Benfica truly understand the idea of "buy low, sell high". Last off-season, Benfica sold Everton to Flamengo for €13.5 million, Roman Yaremchuk to Brugge for €16 million, and stunningly, Darwin Núñez to Liverpool for €75 million. Not one of those players has even come close to justifying their price tags since leaving. Benfica then proceeded to top themselves in January when they sold Fernández to Chelsea for a staggering €121 million following the Argentine's impressive World Cup campaign in which he was named Best Young Player. Predictably, Fernández has struggled ever since arriving in London - a fitting microcosm of both Benfica's and Chelsea's respective seasons.

In past issues, I have mentioned that playing in a weaker domestic league can end up taking some of the "edge" off a team and inhibit their level of play in the Champions League. This, however, has evidently not been true of As Águias. Even though they have been dominating the Primeira Liga thus far with 17 wins in 20 matches and will likely reclaim the league title they last won in 2019, one could easily make the argument that they have been even more impressive on the continental front.

When Benfica were drawn into a Champions League group containing Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus, many expected Benfica to be cannon fodder for their two more established opponents. Not only did Benfica prove to be exactly the opposite; they went on to top the group and as mentioned, are now almost certainly in the quarterfinals. At this point, it would not even be that surprising if they were to reach the semifinals for the first time since 1990.

Of course, there's still a lot of football yet to be played this season - things could potentially go wrong for Benfica at any time. However, given the way they are playing and the way the club is run, it's difficult to envision such a scenario taking place. Not only that - their future seems extremely bright, especially when considering the fact that they have barely even touched the money they have received from Fernández's sale.

It's more than likely that exciting times at the Estádio da Luz await.

The Weekly Take, Issue 244: Slipping Further Behind

The standout La Liga fixture of this weekend's matchday saw Villarreal host runaway league leaders Barcelona. This was a crucial match for Villarreal - if they were to overcome the odds and emerge with a draw or even a win, it would have been a key step forward in their chase for a top-four spot and a berth in next season's UEFA Champions League.

This would turn out not to be the case. Pedri's first-half goal ensured that Villarreal would lose their third consecutive league match. The 1-0 loss against their Catalan opponents caused the Valencian club to slip to eighth place in La Liga, seven points behind fourth-placed Atlético Madrid. Villarreal's chances of qualifying for the 2023-24 Champions League now appear increasingly slim.

When this season began, the outlook regarding Villarreal had been generally positive. Having won the Europa League two seasons prior, then following it up with an impressive run to the Champions League semifinals which saw them knock pre-tournament favourites Bayern Munich out of the competition in the quarterfinals, Villarreal were seen as a team clearly on the rise and a firm contender for a top-four league finish and with it, a second Champions League berth in three seasons.

However, Villarreal's season to date has obviously not gone according to plan. That being said, Villarreal were still in contention for the top four when the moment that may have sunk their chances took place. Last October, Villarreal were in seventh place in the league and fresh off a 2-1 home win against Almería when head coach Unai Emery left his position to take the job at Premier League club Aston Villa where he would replace the recently-fired Steven Gerrard. Incidentally, Emery's move to England appears to have been one which hasn't really worked out for either party; he has struggled ever since stepping into the dugout at Villa Park.

The day after Emery's departure was confirmed, Villarreal replaced the Basque with Quique Setién. Setién accepted his first such role since his ill-fated seven-month stint in charge of Barça in 2020. In the four months since then, Setién has been underwhelming at Villarreal. Although things appeared to be starting to change for the better when Villarreal beat Real Madrid for a third consecutive league victory, Villarreal proceeded to follow it up with a five-match run in which they won just one match and accumulated a meagre four points. Additionally, two weeks after Villarreal's victory against Real, they would be eliminated from the Copa del Rey by the same opponents. It has become increasingly clear that Setién should not be Villarreal's long-term solution. He is evidently not a coach who is able to get it done at this level.

Villarreal's failure to make any moves of note in both the mid-season and off-season transfer windows must also be pointed out. None of Villarreal's acquisitions have really moved the needle; this point is especially salient when considering the fact that Villarreal sold Pervis Estupiñán to Brighton & Hove Albion for €17.8 million during the off-season but failed to make good use of this influx of money. The mid-season departure of goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli, Villarreal's best player this season, to Ajax only served to make things even more difficult - particularly since he has been replaced in goal by a geriatric Pepe Reina.

Villarreal's struggles up front have also been obvious. They have scored just 22 league goals in 21 matches this season; their leading goalscorer Gerard Moreno has just five to his name. Their drop-off from last season is remarkable, having notched 63 league goals in 2021-22. That said, although they may not have immediately seen this coming, they could certainly have brought in reinforcements up front in January. They did not and will likely go on to rue that.

It does somewhat feel as though Villarreal never truly appreciated how good their situation last season really was and thus overlooked multiple opportunities to build on this success. Instead, they have regressed by way of an ill-advised coaching change as well as several transfer blunders while multiple direct rivals have strengthened. Although Villarreal are not yet completely out of the running in the chase for a top-four finish, it's certainly a very tall order at this point.

The Weekly Take, Issue 243: A Most Welcome Psychological Boost

This season's Bundesliga title race is shaping up to be quite possibly the most competitive in history. With more than half of the season completed, six teams are still in contention to claim the league title. Two of those teams faced off during the most recent matchday when Borussia Dortmund hosted SC Freiburg.

To the surprise of just about everyone, Dortmund completely took Freiburg apart in a dominant 5-1 victory. Although five different Dortmund players scored for Die Schwarzgelben, one name among the five goalscorers understandably stood out: Sébastien Haller, who scored his first goal for the club since returning from testicular cancer. To make the moment even more poignant, this match took place on World Cancer Day.

By any measure, Dortmund had weathered a turbulent off-season before the current campaign began. In July of last year, Manchester City signed superstar centre-forward Erling Haaland from Dortmund for the astonishingly low transfer fee of €60 million. To put this figure into perspective, Haaland's true transfer value at the time was €150 million - 250% of what City actually paid to sign the Norwegian.

It wasn't long after that when Haller revealed that he had been diagnosed with testicular cancer. What made this even more of a blow for Dortmund was the fact that the club had just signed the Ivorian striker from Ajax. Thus, Dortmund's slow start to the season came as little surprise. After 10 matchdays, Dortmund were way off the pace; they were eighth in the league at the time and had accumulated just four points from their preceding five league matches. At that point, Dortmund's prospects for the rest of the season were undeniably grim.

However, ever since returning from the league's extended mid-season break, Dortmund have been just about the complete opposite of what they had been before it. Dortmund's current four-match winning streak in which they have scored 13 goals has carried them up to third place in the league, just two points behind surprise league leaders Union Berlin. Just like that, Dortmund find themselves firmly in the midst of the Bundesliga title race.

It is no coincidence that Dortmund's surge in form has come alongside Haller's return to the field. Having spent half a year fighting for his life, Haller's very presence in the matchday squad has served to inspire and galvanize the rest of the team. Even if Haller does not score another goal for the rest of the season, his return might just turn out to be the "X-factor" that propels Dortmund to a first league title since 2012.

Additionally, that scenario is almost certainly not going to happen. Once Haller is fully back into the swing of things, the goals should start coming back. It must not be forgotten that Haller is a proven marksman who is fresh off a breakout season at Ajax. What's more, his prior two-season Bundesliga stint at Eintracht Frankfurt was also fairly successful; Haller scored 15 league goals in the 2018-19 season to help keep the club in contention for a 2019-20 Champions League spot for almost the whole season until a late slump knocked them down to a seventh-place league finish.

Although Haller's return may add just one more available player to Dortmund's roster, its symbolic impact goes far beyond that. Though it may be true that occurrences such as this are "bigger than football", it is also equally true that these same occurrences can (and usually do) have an impact on the associated club's play. Considering how tight the race for the Bundesliga crown is right now, every club in it needs any and every edge which might be obtained. For Dortmund, Haller's return might be exactly that. On top of that, Haller's return will surely make Dortmund the neutrals' pick - the "sentimental favourite" due to the narrative which has now developed around them.

Should Borussia Dortmund somehow defy the odds and become champions of Germany for the first time in more than a decade, Haller's story will undoubtedly become an iconic part of Dortmund and Bundesliga lore. In a season full of twists and turns, this latest boost to Dortmund's title hopes might end up being the most decisive one of all - one so great that it may even end up overriding Haaland's bargain-bin departure last July.

The Weekly Take, Issue 242: Falling Short of Expectations

At the beginning of this season, AS Roma's future appeared bright. Despite having finished just sixth in Serie A in 2021-22, Roma's outlook seemed relatively positive due to several factors: the signings of Paulo Dybala, Andrea Belotti, and Nemanja Matić; the opportunity to build on their UEFA Europa Conference League victory; and potentially even the prospect of English striker Tammy Abraham further improving from his breakout season. The Giallorossi were not only expected to contend for a top-four spot; some even went so far as to claim that they may have had an outside chance at a first league title in 22 years.

This has certainly not been the case. The chasm between Roma's pre-season expectations and actual performance was clearly displayed in their match against Napoli this past matchday. The latest edition of the Derby del Sole ended in a 2-1 Napoli victory. Victor Osimhen opened the scoring for the Serie A champions-to-be, allowing Napoli to take a 1-0 lead into halftime. A half-hour after play resumed, Stephan El Sharaawy equalized for Roma only for Giovanni Simeone to seal Napoli's victory with the winning goal in the 86th minute.

Roma's loss leaves them in sixth place in the league, 16 points behind Napoli. The only silver lining for Roma lies in the fact that every other presumed title contender apart from Napoli has struggled this season; this has allowed Roma to remain in contention for the top four and a spot in next season's Champions League. However, just about everything that could have gone wrong for them this season has.

Abraham has not even come close to replicating his form from last season. The Londoner has found the back of the net just five times in his 20 league appearances thus far this season - a far cry from his 17 in 37 a season ago. Though his exclusion from England's World Cup squad did initially raise some eyebrows, that decision appears to make much more sense now in light of his recent struggles.

With the exception of Dybala, Roma's off-season signings have not even approached the level of impact expected of them. Matić, Belotti, and Zeki Çelik have not been significant contributors this season, while loan acquisition Georginio Wijnaldum has barely even entered the field at all. Roma's reluctance to open up their wallets last summer has come back to haunt them in a big way. Even as the January transfer window comes to a close, Roma only made one signing during it - Ola Solbakken on a free transfer from Bodø/Glimt. While it may be true that Roma aren't exactly the wealthiest of clubs, they surely could have invested in a player who could have made a major difference to their campaign so far.

Additionally, rumours surrounding head coach José Mourinho may have destabilized the team. Mourinho has reportedly become dissatisfied at the Stadio Olimpico and has been linked with positions at Premier League clubs Chelsea and Newcastle United as well as the national teams of the United States and his home country of Portugal. It should not go unmentioned that Mourinho received the lion's share of the credit for Roma's success last season after several difficult years (both for Roma and Mourinho himself). This might also partially explain Abraham's steep decline this season: Mourinho was able to tap into Abraham's potential in a way that no other coach ever had, leading to his highly successful season in 2021-22. The prospect of Mourinho's departure may have thus contributed to his diminished output this season. It may also have caused the rest of the team to mentally "check out" to some extent.

While AS Roma have not necessarily taken a step back when compared to where they were last season, most would have expected them to be doing far better than they are right now. That said, for all their struggles, they still have a realistic shot at a Champions League spot next season and have a Europa League round of 32 fixture against Red Bull Salzburg which they should easily win. There's still plenty of time for Roma to turn their season around; however, something must change soon if what once seemed like such a promising season is to avoid coming to nothing.

The Weekly Take, Issue 241: The Momentum Grinds to a Halt

After returning from the World Cup, Manchester United entered by far their best stretch of form this season. Many of their players turned in impressive showings when representing their respective countries in Qatar; they proceeded to take this form back with them to Old Trafford. The Red Devils would then register victory after victory, climbing the Premier League table at a rapid pace - so much so that they came from far behind to enter a tussle for second place with cross-town rivals Manchester City as well as this season's surprise package Newcastle United.

However, United's excellent run of form was derailed with a 3-2 loss against runaway league leaders Arsenal in the most recent league matchday. Marcus Rashford's opener for United was matched by Gunners striker Eddie Nketiah seven minutes later. Bukayo Saka put Arsenal ahead after the break, but United soon equalized through a Lisandro Martínez goal. In the last minute of regulation time, Nketiah scored his second of the match to clinch all three points for the North London club who have all but sealed their first league title in 19 years.

Although United have shown clear improvements as the season has progressed, this match clearly showed that any thoughts of winning the league for the first time since 2013 are clearly nothing but wishful thinking. United, who are now 11 points behind Arsenal despite having played an additional match, were outplayed for large portions of the match and were somewhat fortunate to have been hanging on until the closing stages.

A case could be made that United lost the match before it even began. In United's prior league match against Crystal Palace, defensive midfielder Casemiro received a yellow card. It was the Brazilian's fifth booking of the season; he was thus suspended for the match against Arsenal. Although his replacement Scott McTominay did not make any crucial errors or cost his team any major goalscoring opportunities, it was obvious that his level of play was not even close to what Casemiro would have likely provided.

Up front, United's new loan signing Wout Weghorst was extremely disappointing. The Dutch centre-forward who is spending the rest of the season on loan from Burnley struggled from opening kick-off to the final whistle. Many United fans were highly skeptical of the club's acquisition of Weghorst; unfortunately for them, their trepidation has so far been justified. While United have lacked a high-quality centre-forward for quite some time now, even just these two matches have clearly proven that Weghorst is not the solution. There is little to no chance that United will make Weghorst a full-time player at the end of the season.

For the second match in a row, United dropped points after conceding a late goal. In their match against Crystal Palace, United let a win turn into a draw after conceding a stoppage-time goal. If United are to overhaul Newcastle or potentially even City, they absolutely cannot afford any more of the like. United's recent poor play in the dying moments of matches shows a lack of focus and organization - something which will undoubtedly have to be addressed if United are to make a serious push back up the table.

There is still just over a week left in the January transfer window. Perhaps the time might now be right for United to make a key signing. Having likely already bungled their centre-forward spot, landing a new starting full-back should now be United's priority. Outside of Diogo Dalot, United do not have any full-backs who are up to the standard of a starter on a team challenging for a Premier League title. It's evident that none among Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and Tyrell Malacia are good enough to be the long-term solution at full-back.

For all the hype that Manchester United had deservedly generated in the weeks leading up to the match against Arsenal, the fact remains that this team is still a work in progress. However, if things do not change soon, United could be stuck in that limbo of "being one piece away" while never actually landing that piece for who knows how long. Though there were several positives to be taken away from this match, there were also as many, if not more, questions left unanswered.

The Weekly Take, Issue 240: Exposed as Fraudulent

Heading into their Serie A match against Napoli, Juventus had seemed to have turned the corner after a dismal start to their 2022-23 season. Eight consecutive Serie A victories saw the Bianconeri climb from eighth place in the league to second. On paper, this match against a rival club and the current league leaders appeared to be finely balanced - it seemed as though either club could have left Stadio Diego Armando Maradona with all three points.

However, Juve were immediately handed a reality check. The Turin-based club collapsed to a 5-1 loss; on top of that, such was Napoli's dominance that the final score could easily have been more one-sided. Victor Osimhen scored a brace to extend his lead at the top of Serie A's goalscoring leaderboard. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Amir Rrahmani, and Elif Elmas also scored for Luciano Spalletti's team. The result left Juve 10 points behind Napoli and with their chances of reclaiming the league title they last won three years ago all but gone.

Juve's lengthy winning streak fooled many a casual observer. Their only true high-quality victory against upper-tier opposition during that winning streak was their 3-0 win over Lazio. Even Juve's 2-0 win over Inter Milan was not particularly impressive; that victory was more of a case of "being less bad than the opponent" rather than outright outplaying them. It should also be noted that during the same period of that winning streak, Juve were knocked out of the Champions League and only made it into the Europa League over Maccabi Haifa on goal difference.

Massimiliano Allegri's team have been invariably underwhelming all season long. At first glance, this Juve squad appears to be replete with talent and not only a contender for the league title, but also a team that might threaten to make a deep Champions League run. Neither of those will happen now, in no small part due to the underperformance of players such as Weston McKennie, Moise Kean, Alex Sandro, and Fabio Miretti. While it may be true that McKennie, Kean, and Miretti are all still young, McKennie has clearly regressed from last season while it appears that Kean will never reach the level of a legitimate starter-level player at a club like Juve. When the next off-season comes around, it may be time for Juve to move on from both players as well as Alex Sandro. Miretti, meanwhile, does have intriguing potential; however, his already extensive playing time this season has shown that it may be "too much too soon". Spending next season on loan at a weaker club will be likely to do the hometown youngster a world of good.

Questions also have to be asked about Allegri himself. Could it be that he has overstayed his welcome in the Juve dugout? It definitely can't be questioned that his second stint in charge of Juve has not even come close to the level of his first between 2014 and 2019. Many Juve fans have already called for Allegri's dismissal; these calls peaked following their 2-0 loss to Maccabi in October. The club's recent winning streak somewhat quelled these sentiments, but they are likely to be renewed following this most recent crushing defeat. Was this, in fact, the final straw? It remains to be seen - but it would not be surprising if it were.

The off-field uncertainty surrounding Juve cannot be ignored. Less than two months ago, the club's entire board including then-president Andrea Agnelli resigned in the wake of issues surrounding Juve's financial statements. This may have in turn had a spillover effect onto the field, though its effects may not have been felt until now; it must be kept in mind that the incident took place during the World Cup break.

Juventus are now an embattled club in so many ways. As such, the fact that this is shaping up to be a "lost season" should not come as much of a surprise. That being said, it's one thing for a team to come up short despite giving their all in the face of adversity. It's quite another for Juve to capitulate in the manner that they did. Their prospects as of right now do not look good at all.

The Weekly Take, Issue 239: The End of an Era Approaching?

Atlético Madrid's ascension to become one of world football's elite clubs over the past decade-plus has been one of the most remarkable stories in the sport. Without funding from an oil magnate, foreign oligarch, or billionaire of any other sort, Atlético transformed from the inside out. In just a few years, what was once regarded as Madrid's second club went from being an absolute basket case on and off the pitch to perhaps the best-run club in the world.

Their results since establishing themselves as a top club speak for themselves. Over the past ten seasons, Atlético have won two La Liga titles and finished in the top three every season. They have also won a Copa del Rey and a Europa League. Most impressively of all, they reached the Champions League final twice; both times, they were beaten by cross-town arch-rivals Real Madrid.

However, this season it appears as though the good times might finally be coming to an end. Their 1-0 home loss to league leaders Barcelona left them in fifth place in the league, 14 points adrift of the Catalan club. Ousmane Dembélé scored the only goal of the match to deal a blow to Atlético's chances of qualifying for the Champions League for an 11th consecutive season.

Atlético are mired in the midst of a severe slump. Over their last five league matches, they have collected just four points. This comes after somehow finishing in last place in what should have been a relatively easy Champions League group containing Porto, Club Brugge, and Bayer Leverkusen and thus even missing out on the Europa League. Atlético are currently on pace to finish the season with just 64 points in the league; this figure would be their lowest tally since their 2011-12 campaign - the last time they missed out on a Champions League qualification spot.

One key reason behind Atlético's struggles this season has to do with their off-season transfer window. Atlético had always been known to be extremely shrewd in the transfer window; however, such was clearly not the case during the previous off-season. Their signings of Axel Witsel and Nahuel Molina have clearly not worked, while Sergio Reguilon has barely played at all after arriving on loan from Tottenham Hotspur. Although an opportunity to right these wrongs exists in the form of the ongoing January transfer window, Atlético have thus far shown little inclination to make an important signing that would give them a leg up in the chase for a top-four spot.

It also doesn't help that many of Atlético's players have been underperforming this season. Players such as Witsel, Molina, Saúl Ñíguez, Koke, Rodrigo de Paul, and Jan Oblak have been thoroughly underwhelming thus far. To make matters worse, the fatigue that Molina incurred after being a key piece in Argentina's run to the World Cup title has further negatively impacted his play. In the match against Barça, the full-back was clearly off the pace and still hadn't readjusted to the rigours of league play, especially against a top team like Barça. When de Paul returns, Atlético are likely to see the same from him as well, given the fact that he played in all seven of the Albiceleste's World Cup matches.

What makes it even more crucial for Atlético to regain their form is the fact that Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao are creeping up on them. If their slump continues for longer than expected, they might even find it difficult to qualify for next season's Europa League - an utterly unthinkable scenario when this season began.

This is a club which is no stranger to adversity - indeed, it can be said that Atlético Madrid have historically thrived in the face of it. That being said, the second half of this season is likely to be the toughest challenge they have faced in a very long time. Atlético has earned a reputation as a team full of grit and resolve - one with an enormous collective chip on their shoulders. Perhaps it will take a key new signing, a tactical overhaul, or maybe even a reshuffling of the regular starting 11 to set them back on the right path.

Could the end of Atlético's greatest era be coming, or is this just a blip? Only time will tell.