Wednesday, September 15, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 176: A Dozen Matches from GOAT Status

This season's Champions League is now underway, and perhaps the most anticipated fixture of the tournament's first matchday saw Inter Milan host Real Madrid. Real left the San Siro with all three points after winning 1-0. Rodrygo's late goal proved to make the difference.

Real's victory came in spite of the fact that Inter had the majority of the goalscoring opportunities. However, Los Merengues held firm throughout the onslaught, then took full advantage of their chance to snatch the win when it came.

This Champions League season could potentially have historic ramifications for Real. If they go on to win it all, one person at the Santiago Bernabéu will end the season as the greatest of all time.

I'm not talking about a player. The person I'm referring to is Real head coach Carlo Ancelotti, who returned to the Spanish capital this past off-season for his second stint at the club.

At the moment, I currently rank Ancelotti fourth all-time behind José Mourinho, Rinus Michels, and Helenio Herrera. However, another Champions League title would catapult the man from Emilia-Romagna ahead of all three and become, in my opinion, the unquestionable GOAT.

Ancelotti already has three Champions League title to his name: two with AC Milan in 2003 and 2007 as well as one with Real in 2014. It's difficult to overstate just what a fourth title would do for his reputation. If Real were to win the Champions League, Ancelotti would have four Champions League titles and stand alone as the all-time record holder. Even more remarkably, he would have won those four titles over a 19-year span.

Let that figure sink in. Nineteen years. That is unheard of. It would be an achievement which would likely never be repeated.

To put it into perspective, consider the three coaches who I currently rank ahead of Ancelotti. Mourinho won his first Champions League title in 2004. It has been 17 years since; he now struggles to keep pace with the tactical evolution which has taken place in recent years.

Nineteen years after Michels led Ajax to the 1971 European Cup, he was a year removed from an eighth-place finish in the Bundesliga with Bayer Leverkusen. Herrera, meanwhile, retired from coaching in 1981; this was 17 years after his first European Cup title.

Ancelotti isn't only defined by his longevity; his consistency is also absolutely astonishing. In addition to his three Champions League titles, he has reached the semifinals of Europe's leading club competition on four further occasions. These seven runs to the semis or better were achieved at the helm of four different clubs over 16 years, proving that Ancelotti is truly a coach who can extract outstanding results out of any squad and with just about any set of tactics, his blip at Everton notwithstanding.

If Ancelotti were to deliver a Champions League title to Real, it would easily rank as the greatest achievement of his legendary coaching career. Real are not among the favourites to win this season's tournament. Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City, and reigning champions Chelsea are all seen as more likely to claim the title. One of the main reasons why I currently rank Mourinho as the greatest ever is the fact that he won both his Champions League titles as the coach of an underdog team. For Ancelotti to emulate the legendary Portuguese coach combined with everything else he has already done would end the GOAT debate.

In the more than two decades since Ancelotti first emerged as one of the best coaches on the in the world, the football landscape and metagame have changed numerous times. The fact that he has been able to remain so successful this entire time in spite of all these changes is a testament to his strategic genius and his immense knowledge of the players at his disposal and their strengths. Yet, in spite of all of this, Ancelotti continues to remain underrated by many fans as well as the media.

A victorious Champions League run this season would likely change that. Though it might not make Ancelotti the consensus pick for greatest football coach of all time, it would likely put him much closer to that status than most would think.

Saturday, September 11, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 175: One Man Makes All the Difference

This past off-season, former Bayern Munich head coach Hansi Flick left the club to take over at the helm of Germany's national team. Much to the dismay of every other club within the Bundesliga (especially RB Leipzig) as well as Bayern's fellow Champions League title contenders, Bayern would soon bring in Flick's Leipzig counterpart Julian Nagelsmann, a coach with remarkable tactical nous and in-game decision-making skills belying his relative inexperience.

In a Bundesliga match during the most recent matchday which saw Nagelsmann's current club face off against his former one, the effect of the Bavarian coach's presence in the dugout was evident. Bayern had absolutely no trouble notching a 4-1 away victory against Leipzig in a match which saw last season's Bundesliga champions gain what should prove to be a vital three points against last season's league runners-up.

It was obvious from the beginning that Nagelsmann's successor Jesse Marsch was clearly overmatched. From a tactical perspective, as might have been expected, Nagelsmann proved why even at just 34 years old, he is already regarded as one of the world's best coaches. Nagelsmann already seems as though he has been in charge at Bayern for years.

Nagelsmann's track record speaks for itself. Having been coaching for just over five years, he has led both Hoffenheim and Leipzig to impressive results over that time. He rose to prominence after leading an unfancied Hoffenheim team to back-to-back top-four league finishes in the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons, then followed that up by clearly establishing Leipzig as the second-best team in Germany behind Bayern. He even took Leipzig on an unexpected Champions League semifinal run in the 2019-20 season which included an impressive upset victory over Atlético Madrid in the quarterfinals.

This is the first time in Nagelsmann's coaching career that his team is the favourite - not only in the Bundesliga, but also in the Champions League. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that Bayern's acquisition of Nagelsmann makes them the favourite to win a second Champions League title in three years. Though Flick is not an incompetent coach by any means, Nagelsmann is quite simply on another level - he might very well rise to the "pantheon" level of coaches someday.

Where Nagelsmann truly excels can be seen in the phrase "the sum of the parts is greater than the whole". When you look at the players he had at Hoffenheim and Leipzig, no one would have expected him to lead both clubs to the results which he did. Now that he is at a loaded Bayern team boasting the likes of Dayot Upamecano, Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané, Alphonso Davies, and of course, Robert Lewandowski, the potential which his squad now has is almost incomprehensibly high - if he could extract such success out of a more limited squad, imagine what he could do with what he has to work with now.

On top of that, Nagelsmann will bring even more tactical flexibility to Bayern. During his time at Leipzig, Nagelsmann was known to rotate formations, switching between three and four at the back or sometimes even playing without a true centre-forward. This once again reflects well on Nagelsmann because it shows he can and will adapt his setup to specifically counter the opposing team - something the vast majority of coaches do not do.

Many coaches in charge of star names for the first time might sometimes struggle with managing the personalities and egos within the locker room. Fortunately for Nagelsmann, this will not be a problem at Bayern. This is a squad which truly buys into the team-first approach from Lewandowski all the way down to the end-of-the-bench backups. Thus, Nagelsmann can expect to avoid any internal drama which could threaten to derail an elite club's season.

Due to his comparative lack of coaching experience, there is something of a reluctance to acknowledge Nagelsmann as one of the world's best coaches. However, everything seems to have aligned in such a way that Nagelsmann will never have a better chance to win a Bundesliga-Champions League double and enter that top tier where he truly belongs.

This season, Nagelsmann could hardly be in a more enviable position. He not only has a great chance to lead Bayern to another Champions League title; but reputation-wise, he also has so little to lose and so much to gain.

Sunday, September 5, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 174: A Potentially Derailing Incident

A much-anticipated CONMEBOL qualifying match for the 2022 World Cup between arch-rivals Brazil and Argentina ended in shambolic scenes. The match was abandoned after Brazilian police entered the field to arrest four of Argentina's players. These players allegedly falsified information on documents pertaining to Covid-19.

Giovani Lo Celso, Emiliano Buendía, Emiliano Martínez, and Cristian Romero had allegedly claimed to have arrived in São Paulo from Venezuela without mentioning that they had also been in the UK, a country on Brazil's "red list". All four players are based in the Premier League.

The fact that Lo Celso and Romero were involved should certainly be a cause for concern at their club Tottenham Hotspur. The current Premier League leaders have confirmed that they intend to fine both players for their respective offenses. However, this incident was exactly what Tottenham did not need after a tumultuous off-season which almost saw star striker Harry Kane leave for Manchester City.

Although neither of the two players involved are regular starters for Tottenham, this is exactly the type of incident which can destabilize the team and distract them as they continue their quest for a top-four Premier League finish - just what they don't need at this early stage of the season. Last season, the North London club finished seventh in the league; it was their worst league finish since 2009. If they do not have a bounce-back campaign this season, the next off-season might see Kane finally depart Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after what would be 11 years at the club.

During the next transfer window in January, it might also be in Tottenham's best interest to ship Lo Celso out if possible. Not only is the midfielder from Rosario not a key part of the squad; he has also once again proven himself to be a complete knucklehead. This recent incident was Lo Celso's second violation of Covid-19 regulations. Last December, Lo Celso was one of three Tottenham players who found themselves in trouble after having attended a Christmas party; an act which contravened lockdown regulations in force in the UK at the time. If Tottenham can find another club willing to overlook Lo Celso's baggage, they should seek to make a deal as soon as possible.

This incident may also prove to be a major distraction to Argentina's national team. Fresh off winning the Copa América, the Albiceleste are currently second in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying standings. They cannot afford to be thrown off by recent events because a slump might see them slide out of the top four; only four of the 10 teams in the qualifiers will advance to the tournament in Qatar next year.

Should Argentina finish fifth, they will enter a two-legged playoff against a team from a different continent. Though Argentina will undoubtedly be favoured to beat that other team, anything can happen over just 180 minutes.

Another significant matter for Argentina has to be the fate of goalkeeper Martínez. The Aston Villa player was the breakout star of Argentina's victorious Copa América run. He was selected as the tournament's best goalkeeper just a month after making his national team debut. Within just a few short months, Martínez has firmly established himself as Argentina's first-choice goalkeeper. To put into perspective just how meteoric his rise has been, Martínez had never been a first-choice goalkeeper at any point during his career until the beginning of the 2020-21 Premier League season. Martínez was almost 28 at the time.

Thus, the incident at the Neo Química Arena has left Argentina head coach Lionel Scaloni in a major quandary. None of Argentina's other goalkeepers are even close to the level of Martínez. In addition, the increased scrutiny will add even more pressure to the team's upcoming matches. It would therefore not be all that surprising if they were to drop cheap points in their next few matches, causing them to lose ground in the chase to claim a World Cup spot.

Both Argentina and Tottenham now find their campaigns at a crossroads due to the sheer irresponsibility of their players. How both teams respond to this latest turn of events will play a major role in determining the eventual final outcomes of their World Cup qualifying matches and Premier League and UEFA Conference League seasons respectively.

Friday, August 27, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 173: Title Contenders Overnight

Just last week, if you had asked me about what I thought of Manchester United's chances of winning a title this season, I'd have said "slim to none". In a best-case scenario, I'd have expected the Red Devils to have reached the Champions League quarterfinals and finished third in the Premier League. Do note that this would've been my prediction for what I thought would've been the absolute best results that this season's United team could've achieved.

Of course, all of this changed with just one transfer. In a stunning move that will have surely changed the landscape of European football, Cristiano Ronaldo signed for Manchester United after having spent three years at Juventus. Ronaldo will begin his second stint at United after having played there from 2003 to 2009. During his first six years at United, Ronaldo won the Champions League and Ballon d'Or in 2008 as well as three Premier League titles.

Remarkably, the transfer was made for the astonishingly low price of €25 million. This figure would ordinarily be understandable, given the fact that Ronaldo will be 37 in February. However, even at his age, the Portuguese legend has shown no signs of slowing down and could easily have commanded triple the price.

Ronaldo's arrival has turned United into genuine contenders for both the Premier League and Champions League titles. With Ronaldo on their roster, United now possess arguably the most potent attacking force in world football. They add Ronaldo to an attacking line which already includes Bruno Fernandes, Jadon Sancho, Marcus Rashford, Mason Greenwood, and Anthony Martial. It's more than likely that this season, there will be an avalanche of goals at Old Trafford.

It almost seems as though this United team was set up for Ronaldo's return at any time. Prior to United's acquisition of Ronaldo, Fernandes had been their best player. However, as great a player as Fernandes is, he seems to have hit his peak at a level just below that of "centrepiece of a Champions League-winning team". That's not a knock on Fernandes by any means. There are fewer than 10, and sometimes five, such players in the world at any given time.

Ronaldo, on the other hand, is one of those players. In addition to the many goals he will undoubtedly score for United, he will bring intangibles to the team - more than any other player in the world could. He is perhaps the most clutch player in the history of football. Where do we even begin with this? His five Champions League titles, four of which came as the best player of 2013-18 Real Madrid - the greatest dynasty in the history of club football? Coming out on top in an epic duel with Zlatan Ibrahimović with a spot in the World Cup on the line? Or the countless times he almost single-handedly willed his United or Real teams to victory? This is the mentality with which he will infuse this United team - it might just be the X-factor that United need.

On top of that, no one can say that this United team is not a balanced one. In addition to their attacking prowess, United can boast of the likes of Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Paul Pogba, and Scott McTominay - a solid foundation which will provide their attackers with what they need behind them.

Additionally, it really is now or never for head coach Ole Gunnar Solskjær. After almost three years at the helm, Solskjær has not yet led United to any titles. While this would not have been expected prior to Ronaldo's arrival, everything will certainly have changed now. If United once again finish the season empty-handed, it will be extremely likely that the Norwegian will lose his job.

This is probably United's most talented team since the 2008-09 edition, the last time Ronaldo was on the team. That team also featured Nemanja Vidić, Wayne Rooney, Patrice Evra, and Carlos Tevez; it would only be denied back-to-back Champions League titles by a Barcelona team which, quite simply, went "god mode".

It's much too early in the season to conclusively say anything, but there seems to be no reason why United fans shouldn't consider their team in contention to clinch the fourth Champions League title in the club's history this season.

Sunday, August 22, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 172: The Missing Piece

After eight years, one of the most underrated centre-forwards in football history has returned to his old stomping grounds and made an immediate impact. He made the loudest statement imaginable: "this is what you've been missing out on for all these years".

In a London derby at the Emirates Stadium, Chelsea defeated Arsenal 2-0. Making his first league appearance for Chelsea since August 2013, Romelu Lukaku opened the scoring for the Blues. Reece James would add another to seal the victory for the reigning European champions.

When Lukaku first arrived at Stamford Bridge as an 18-year-old in 2011, the Belgian was just fifth in the club's pecking order up front. Didier Drogba, Fernando Torres, Daniel Sturridge, and Salomon Kalou were all getting more playing time than he was. Keep in mind that this was a Drogba long past his prime and a Torres who was a mere shell of the elite striker which he had once been.

The next season, Lukaku would be sent on loan to West Bromwich Albion, where the first signs of the great player he would someday become began to evidence themselves. Lukaku scored 17 league goals for a team which was otherwise devoid of any significant talent whatsoever. After returning to Chelsea the next season, he would play just two league matches before spending four years at Everton, where he would break out and emerge as one of the most promising young stars in world football.

Stints at Manchester United and Inter Milan would follow; it would be at Inter where Lukaku would firmly establish himself as one of, at minimum, the top three centre-forwards on the planet. Scoring goals at an astonishing clip, Lukaku would be the driving force behind Inter's Serie A title in 2021 - their first in 11 years. This compelled Chelsea to bring Lukaku back to London for the extravagant yet fitting sum of €115 million.

The idea of just one signing making the team which just won the Champions League an even bigger threat may sound preposterous at first. Yet, this is exactly the case with Lukaku. Last season, no Chelsea player scored more than seven goals in the league. Lukaku should easily manage more than 20 himself; his return to Chelsea almost certainly makes them favourites for a first league title since 2017. His 24 league goals last season would have been enough to have placed him as the Premier League's leading goalscorer; in fact, had he never left for Inter, he would have claimed this honour in back-to-back seasons.

Lukaku's combination of physicality, athleticism, positional awareness, and finishing is extremely rare; this combination has made him the superstar striker he now is. It is no wonder that he commanded such an extravagant transfer fee - and deservedly so. What's more, Robert Lewandowski is now 33 years old and soon to reach his decline while Erling Haaland probably won't peak for several more years. Lukaku could realistically claim the status of "undisputed best centre-forward in the world" as soon as this season.

Lukaku's signing also reflects a tremendous improvement on the part of Chelsea's front office. In past years, owner Roman Abramovich might have just spent money recklessly, made a splashy signing for no particular reason, then looked on as that new signing failed to fit into the team and underperformed because he'd have been signed without regard for team setup. This is certainly not the case with Lukaku. Chelsea badly needed a true goalscoring threat to not only make a serious Premier League title challenge, but also to contend for back-to-back Champions League titles. With Lukaku back at Chelsea, they now have exactly that.

It is mind-boggling to think about what kind of success Chelsea could've had if they had never let Lukaku leave for Everton all those years ago. Over the past six seasons, Chelsea have averaged just 70 points in the league; a figure bested by four other clubs. This would surely have been different with Lukaku in tow; indeed, when Lukaku was at United, his 16 goals led the Red Devils to their best league campaign in five years.

Very few clubs get this kind of opportunity to atone for a past error. However, Chelsea now have exactly this chance - they can now focus on building their rebuilt team around Lukaku as they could've done way back then.

Sunday, August 15, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 171: Lightning in a Bottle

The 2021-22 La Liga season kicked off with one very obvious absence - that of Barcelona legend Lionel Messi, who left the Catalan club after 17 years to join Paris Saint-Germain in hopes of winning a fifth Champions League title. A fifth title would make Messi's tally equal that of arch-rival Cristiano Ronaldo.

Of course, this meant that there would be serious questions asked of Barça heading into this season. The first league match of the season was expected to be of particular intrigue. Not only would it be the club's first match since 2004 without the iconic Argentine on the roster; it would also see the Blaugrana face off against Real Sociedad, an improving club who have genuine ambitions of making the top four this season.

As it turned out, Messi's absence was not significantly felt - at least this time around. In a victory which was more dominant than the final scoreline indicated, Barça beat Real Sociedad 4-2. Both of Real Sociedad's goals only came within the last 10 minutes of the match. The players who had once been Messi's supporting cast stepped up and made key contributions. Jordi Alba, Gerard Pique, and Frenkie de Jong all registered solid performances for Barça. New signing Memphis Depay was also impressive.

However, much to the surprise of almost everyone, the standout performer of the match was Danish striker Martin Braithwaite. Braithwaite scored two goals and also assisted a goal scored by Sergi Roberto. Throughout all 90 minutes, he repeatedly had the Real Sociedad defense in serious trouble. Without question, this was not only Braithwaite's best performance in a Barça jersey; it was probably also the greatest single-match performance of his career to date.

To give you an idea of just how unexpected Braithwaite's display at Camp Nou this weekend was, he only scored two league goals in 29 appearances last season. Over his two-and-a-half prior seasons spent in La Liga, he had scored just 12 goals in 83 matches. A fringe player during his entire time at Barça to date, almost no one could have possibly seen this coming.

Braithwaite is the stereotypical example of the "career journeyman". After leaving hometown club Esbjerg fB in 2013 at the age of 22, Braithwaite spent the next six years at French side Toulouse and English club Middlesbrough; he also had a loan stint at Bordeaux in 2018. He only joined a club in one of Europe's four leading leagues in 2019 when he signed for La Liga club Leganés.

On top of that, he only even joined Barça in the first place as an emergency signing after Ousmane Dembélé suffered a major long-term injury. Upon Dembélé's return, Braithwaite immediately fell behind the Frenchman in Barça's pecking order. When Sergio Agüero returns from his calf injury, Braithwaite will likely find starts even more difficult to come by. Certainly, Braithwaite is a player who has paid his dues - both years ago and more recently.

Admittedly, Braithwaite has had his moments in a Barcelona jersey. Notably, he scored two goals and had an assist when Barcelona beat Dynamo Kyiv 4-0 in the Champions League last season. However, his performance against Real Sociedad is still superior to his effort in Ukraine because at that point of the group stage, Dynamo had already effectively been eliminated from the tournament, making the match a relatively low-impact clash.

It isn't as though his recent performance was likely to be a sign of things to come, either. Now at age 30, Braithwaite has probably already peaked and will soon be in decline. Although it isn't out of the question that Braithwaite might just happen to be a late bloomer whose best years are yet to come, the history of football has shown us that this is a somewhat unlikely scenario.

This season, Barcelona's strikers are tasked with perhaps the most difficult job in world football - somehow, they must compensate for Messi in the wake of his departure. The bulk of this burden will undoubtedly fall on the shoulders of Depay, Antoine Griezmann, and Agüero. However, for just one day, Barça's unlikely hero caught "lightning in a bottle" to give them get their league campaign off to a strong start.

Maybe, just maybe, life after Messi at Barcelona might not be so tough after all.

Thursday, August 5, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 170: Perhaps The Worst Signing of All Time

The entire football world was left in absolute shock after Manchester City agreed to sign Jack Grealish from Aston Villa for the eye-popping price of £100 million. Grealish leaves Villa Park after having spent the first eight years of his career there. This transfer makes Grealish the most expensive English player in history. It is also the largest amount of money ever paid by an English club for the signing of a single player.

Over the years, many clubs have made various ill-advised signings; however, I fully believe that this one tops the lot. There is absolutely no reason why the English midfielder should command a transfer fee of even £50 million, let alone double that.

It is true that he is coming off a breakout season for the West Midlands club and performed above expectations at Euro 2020. At 25, Grealish is just beginning to enter his prime. However, his performances to date as well as his potential ceiling do not even come close to warranting his extravagant transfer fee.

To put this figure into perspective, Grealish is now the sixth-most expensive signing ever. He is ahead of players such as Eden Hazard, Paul Pogba, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Gareth Bale. Barring a massive leap, Grealish will not even come close to approaching the levels that those players attained when at their respective peaks.

Here's another statistic to consider: Grealish has become the second-most expensive midfielder in football history, only behind Philippe Coutinho. For that matter, just look at the list of the 10 most expensive football transfers. With the exception of Ousmane Dembélé, Grealish is clearly several tiers below every other player on that list.

And on top of that: what exactly does Grealish bring to City which they don't already have? Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva both possess similar skillsets to what Grealish has; both are also clearly better players. Grealish will also have to compete with Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez for a starting berth. This means that it could very well have been the case that City just spent £100 million to sign a player who will primarily find himself on the bench.

At this point, I would select Dembélé's move from Borussia Dortmund to Barcelona for €105 million in 2017 as the worst signing ever. Despite all the hype which accompanied the Frenchman's arrival at Camp Nou, a combination of both injuries and underwhelming play have seen him slip down the pecking order at the Catalan club. Certainly, Barça must now be looking back on his purchase with regret, especially considering the fact that while he did seem to have a promising future early in his career, almost no one pegged him as a player worthy of such a high transfer price.

It certainly looks as though a similar scenario is playing out with Grealish's move to City. However, this transfer could end up being even worse than Dembélé's for several reasons. For one thing, Grealish is 25; Dembélé was 20 when he joined Barça. Though extremely unlikely, it was not as unrealistic for some to expect Dembélé to become an elite player due to his younger age. It will be almost impossible for Grealish to live up to his lofty price tag.

Grealish's club of origin also makes his transfer even more damning. Aston Villa finished 11th in the Premier League last season. In his entire time at the club, that was Villa's best league finish. His only taste of a high-stakes top-level match at club level was the 2015 FA Cup final which Villa lost to Arsenal. On the other hand, when Dembélé came to Catalonia from Dortmund, he had been part of a team which had just finished third in the Bundesliga, won the DFB-Pokal, and reached the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League.

On the face of it, there seems to have been absolutely no logic or thought applied by City's front office when making this signing. It's an extreme overpay for a player who has proven almost nothing, does not appear to have superstar potential, and will likely be confined to the bench most of the time.

I'm certainly willing to be proven wrong, but five years from now, I fully except this signing to have gone down as one of the worst signings, if not the worst signing, of all time.