Sunday, August 15, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 171: Lightning in a Bottle

The 2021-22 La Liga season kicked off with one very obvious absence - that of Barcelona legend Lionel Messi, who left the Catalan club after 17 years to join Paris Saint-Germain in hopes of winning a fifth Champions League title. A fifth title would make Messi's tally equal that of arch-rival Cristiano Ronaldo.

Of course, this meant that there would be serious questions asked of Barça heading into this season. The first league match of the season was expected to be of particular intrigue. Not only would it be the club's first match since 2004 without the iconic Argentine on the roster; it would also see the Blaugrana face off against Real Sociedad, an improving club who have genuine ambitions of making the top four this season.

As it turned out, Messi's absence was not significantly felt - at least this time around. In a victory which was more dominant than the final scoreline indicated, Barça beat Real Sociedad 4-2. Both of Real Sociedad's goals only came within the last 10 minutes of the match. The players who had once been Messi's supporting cast stepped up and made key contributions. Jordi Alba, Gerard Pique, and Frenkie de Jong all registered solid performances for Barça. New signing Memphis Depay was also impressive.

However, much to the surprise of almost everyone, the standout performer of the match was Danish striker Martin Braithwaite. Braithwaite scored two goals and also assisted a goal scored by Sergi Roberto. Throughout all 90 minutes, he repeatedly had the Real Sociedad defense in serious trouble. Without question, this was not only Braithwaite's best performance in a Barça jersey; it was probably also the greatest single-match performance of his career to date.

To give you an idea of just how unexpected Braithwaite's display at Camp Nou this weekend was, he only scored two league goals in 29 appearances last season. Over his two-and-a-half prior seasons spent in La Liga, he had scored just 12 goals in 83 matches. A fringe player during his entire time at Barça to date, almost no one could have possibly seen this coming.

Braithwaite is the stereotypical example of the "career journeyman". After leaving hometown club Esbjerg fB in 2013 at the age of 22, Braithwaite spent the next six years at French side Toulouse and English club Middlesbrough; he also had a loan stint at Bordeaux in 2018. He only joined a club in one of Europe's four leading leagues in 2019 when he signed for La Liga club Leganés.

On top of that, he only even joined Barça in the first place as an emergency signing after Ousmane Dembélé suffered a major long-term injury. Upon Dembélé's return, Braithwaite immediately fell behind the Frenchman in Barça's pecking order. When Sergio Agüero returns from his calf injury, Braithwaite will likely find starts even more difficult to come by. Certainly, Braithwaite is a player who has paid his dues - both years ago and more recently.

Admittedly, Braithwaite has had his moments in a Barcelona jersey. Notably, he scored two goals and had an assist when Barcelona beat Dynamo Kyiv 4-0 in the Champions League last season. However, his performance against Real Sociedad is still superior to his effort in Ukraine because at that point of the group stage, Dynamo had already effectively been eliminated from the tournament, making the match a relatively low-impact clash.

It isn't as though his recent performance was likely to be a sign of things to come, either. Now at age 30, Braithwaite has probably already peaked and will soon be in decline. Although it isn't out of the question that Braithwaite might just happen to be a late bloomer whose best years are yet to come, the history of football has shown us that this is a somewhat unlikely scenario.

This season, Barcelona's strikers are tasked with perhaps the most difficult job in world football - somehow, they must compensate for Messi in the wake of his departure. The bulk of this burden will undoubtedly fall on the shoulders of Depay, Antoine Griezmann, and Agüero. However, for just one day, Barça's unlikely hero caught "lightning in a bottle" to give them get their league campaign off to a strong start.

Maybe, just maybe, life after Messi at Barcelona might not be so tough after all.

Thursday, August 5, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 170: Perhaps The Worst Signing of All Time

The entire football world was left in absolute shock after Manchester City agreed to sign Jack Grealish from Aston Villa for the eye-popping price of £100 million. Grealish leaves Villa Park after having spent the first eight years of his career there. This transfer makes Grealish the most expensive English player in history. It is also the largest amount of money ever paid by an English club for the signing of a single player.

Over the years, many clubs have made various ill-advised signings; however, I fully believe that this one tops the lot. There is absolutely no reason why the English midfielder should command a transfer fee of even £50 million, let alone double that.

It is true that he is coming off a breakout season for the West Midlands club and performed above expectations at Euro 2020. At 25, Grealish is just beginning to enter his prime. However, his performances to date as well as his potential ceiling do not even come close to warranting his extravagant transfer fee.

To put this figure into perspective, Grealish is now the sixth-most expensive signing ever. He is ahead of players such as Eden Hazard, Paul Pogba, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Gareth Bale. Barring a massive leap, Grealish will not even come close to approaching the levels that those players attained when at their respective peaks.

Here's another statistic to consider: Grealish has become the second-most expensive midfielder in football history, only behind Philippe Coutinho. For that matter, just look at the list of the 10 most expensive football transfers. With the exception of Ousmane Dembélé, Grealish is clearly several tiers below every other player on that list.

And on top of that: what exactly does Grealish bring to City which they don't already have? Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva both possess similar skillsets to what Grealish has; both are also clearly better players. Grealish will also have to compete with Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez for a starting berth. This means that it could very well have been the case that City just spent £100 million to sign a player who will primarily find himself on the bench.

At this point, I would select Dembélé's move from Borussia Dortmund to Barcelona for €105 million in 2017 as the worst signing ever. Despite all the hype which accompanied the Frenchman's arrival at Camp Nou, a combination of both injuries and underwhelming play have seen him slip down the pecking order at the Catalan club. Certainly, Barça must now be looking back on his purchase with regret, especially considering the fact that while he did seem to have a promising future early in his career, almost no one pegged him as a player worthy of such a high transfer price.

It certainly looks as though a similar scenario is playing out with Grealish's move to City. However, this transfer could end up being even worse than Dembélé's for several reasons. For one thing, Grealish is 25; Dembélé was 20 when he joined Barça. Though extremely unlikely, it was not as unrealistic for some to expect Dembélé to become an elite player due to his younger age. It will be almost impossible for Grealish to live up to his lofty price tag.

Grealish's club of origin also makes his transfer even more damning. Aston Villa finished 11th in the Premier League last season. In his entire time at the club, that was Villa's best league finish. His only taste of a high-stakes top-level match at club level was the 2015 FA Cup final which Villa lost to Arsenal. On the other hand, when Dembélé came to Catalonia from Dortmund, he had been part of a team which had just finished third in the Bundesliga, won the DFB-Pokal, and reached the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League.

On the face of it, there seems to have been absolutely no logic or thought applied by City's front office when making this signing. It's an extreme overpay for a player who has proven almost nothing, does not appear to have superstar potential, and will likely be confined to the bench most of the time.

I'm certainly willing to be proven wrong, but five years from now, I fully except this signing to have gone down as one of the worst signings, if not the worst signing, of all time.

Saturday, July 31, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 169: Regional Pride, International Renown, or Both?

Spain's under-23 team have advanced to the semifinals of the Olympic football tournament after scoring three goals in extra time to beat Côte d'Ivoire's junior team 5-2. Wolverhampton Wanderers striker Rafa Mir scored a hattrick after having come off the bench to lead Spain to their first appearance in the final four since 2000, when they reached the final.

Besides Mir, another of the standout performers in Spain's victory was Mikel Oyarzabal. The Real Sociedad winger was a constant threat to the Ivorian defense up front, scoring from the penalty spot in the 98th minute and also setting up Mir's third goal close to the end of extra time.

Last week, I mentioned that Oyarzabal, like Brazil and Everton striker Richarlison, is far too good a player for this tournament level. This fact was on full display against Côte d'Ivoire. Almost immediately from the opening whistle, it was evident that the Basque was simply a class above almost every other player on the field - his own teammates included.

Oyarzabal's performances in Tokyo come off the back of his appearance at Euro 2020. Although Oyarzabal entered  as a substitute in five of La Furia Roja's six matches at the continental tournament, he acquitted himself throughout and established himself as a likely future core piece for the Spanish national team.

If you recall, last week I mentioned that it might be time for Richarlison to seek a new challenge at another club befitting of his skill level. You might assume that I would say the same about Oyarzabal. However, I am hesitant to do so for two reasons.

The first reason is the fact that Real Sociedad are a club on the rise. They have finished in the top six of La Liga three times in the last five seasons and won the 2020 Copa del Rey. Having finished fifth last season, it's certainly possible that with Oyarzabal leading them, the Basque club can claim a top-four finish and the accompanying Champions League berth for the first time since the 2012-13 season.

Oyarzabal does have a solid supporting cast around him - Mikel Merino, Andoni Gorosabel, Alexander Isak, Adnan Januzaj, and David Silva, who has still been effective despite being long past his prime. The question, however, remains whether Real Sociedad can make the "leap". Depending on how this season goes, we might have to redefine Spain's "Big Three" of Atlético Madrid, Real Madrid, and Barcelona as a "Big Four" which would now include Sevilla. If Sevilla maintain their level of play from last season, it will be extremely difficult for Real Sociedad to break through and finish in the top four.

Last year, I said that there is a distinct possibility of Oyarzabal leaving the Anoeta. On paper, this would seem logical, especially if Real Sociedad again fail to make the Champions League. However, there is a second, much more sentimental reason why he might remain at Real Sociedad: regional pride.

In the Basque Country, regional identity is taken very seriously indeed - so much so that a thriving secessionist movement exists there. There is also a Basque Country football team which is not authorized by FIFA; Oyarzabal has played for this team in the past. Given the fact that Real Sociedad is close to a Champions League spot, he might consider the point that if he were to stay for the long hail and help Real Sociedad make it to the next level, he would undoubtedly go down as not only a club legend, but as a legend of Basque football.

That said, of course any player of Oyarzabal's calibre and age (he's 24) could easily go to a Champions League contender and fit in seamlessly. Certainly, there's many a top club which would seek his services. If Oyarzabal wants to chase not only Champions League titles, but also make big money and live in a glamorous city, he might very well bolt just as so many have done before him.

It is likely that ultimately, Oyarzabal will be forced to choose between international renown and regional pride. However, in the unlikely but magical event that everything falls into place exactly according to plan, Oyarzabal might very well end up with both.

Friday, July 23, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 168: Time for a New Challenge?

The Olympic football tournament saw Brazil and Germany's junior squads face off in a group-stage match. Brazil emerged victorious by a 4-2 scoreline with Everton striker Richarlison scoring a hattrick.

Just by looking at the names on both squad lists, it was obvious that Richarlison was the standout name. As Olympic football is an age-restricted tournament, no team could send their full complement of elite players. As a result, Richarlison is now one of two players in this Olympic tournament whom I consider to be far too good to be playing in it; the other is Spain midfielder Mikel Oyarzabal.

Interestingly, Richarlison's current situation at the Olympics somewhat mirrors his standing at his club. At 24, Richarlison is poised for a breakout season any time now; I fully believe that he has what it takes to make "the leap" and emerge as an elite striker. However, it is not likely that he would be able to do just that by remaining at Everton.

Although Richarlison scored just seven league goals last season, he did have a down year marked by a major goalscoring slump in the first half of the season. In the two seasons before that, he had 13 in both. Notably, those seasons were his age-22 and age-23 seasons; if his career progresses the way that most players' do, he has the potential to be a perennial 20-goal player and the focal point of the Seleção's attack when he hits his peak.

Furthermore, Richarlison is the type of striker who fits well within almost any team's system. For evidence, consider the difference between Brazil with Neymar leading the attack and Brazil with Richarlison doing so. When it's Neymar, Brazil's attack is often stagnant and one-dimensional with everything running through the PSG ace, for better or for worse. On the other hand, this doesn't happen when it's Richarlison. Brazil's attacking play is often crisp and smooth when it runs through Richarlison.

However, as of right now, he might very well be held back by his own club. After a strong start to last season, Everton only finished 10th in the Premier League and were knocked out of the FA Cup in the quarterfinals. This then leads to the question: if Richarlison were to leave Goodison Park, where should he go next?

Juventus is an intriguing possibility. Looking at Juve's current platoon of strikers, Cristiano Ronaldo is now 36, Paulo Dybala has fallen off a cliff and will probably never return to his peak level, and Álvaro Morata, as has so often been the case in his career, has failed to live up to his transfer fee. The stage is perfectly set for Richarlison to enter the picture and become the Bianconeri's next great striker.

Although not many Brazilian players make the move to the Bundesliga, he might end up being a good fit at RB Leipzig. Leipzig finished second in the league behind Bayern last season despite the fact that none of their players scored more than eight league goals. Should Richarlison's goalscoring form return to its level of the two full seasons before the previous one, he would fit right in and easily address this need.

If Richarlison were to remain in England, a move to Manchester City could be considered. The reigning Premier League champions won last season's league title in spite of the lack of goalscoring production they received from their strikers. Gabriel Jesus, Sergio Agüero, and Ferran Torres combined for just 20 league goals. City's lack of goalscoring punch up front could see them struggle to retain their league title. The acquisition of Richarlison would go a long way towards solving this problem.

Of course, it's certainly possible that a move to a big club this off-season might be too much too soon for Richarlison. Having never played for a contender for titles at club level, the biggest stages might yet prove to be a bridge too far for him. However, judging by his performances for Brazil to date, this is not likely to be a problem; he has stepped up on many an occasion against high-calibre opposition on the international stage and proven that he does seem to have what it takes.

If Brazil win gold and Richarlison dominates, do not be surprised to see him in a new club's kit at the beginning of next season.

Saturday, July 17, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 167: The Most Overrated Concept in Football

With the conclusion of both major continental tournaments, the focus of the football world shifted back to the ongoing off-season and the transfers (or non-transfers) that come with it.

This past week, no major transfers were made. However, there was a contract signing which put an end to years of speculation.

Fresh off leading Argentina to victory at the Copa América, Lionel Messi signed a five-year contract extension following the prior expiry of his Barcelona contract. This extension takes his stint at the Catalan club to 2026. As Messi will be 39 at the conclusion of the new contract, he will almost certainly finish his career as a one-club man.

What I will say next is not intended to knock Messi or any other one-club men at all. However, I firmly believe that the idea of the one-club man is the most overrated concept in football. It does not deserve to be romanticized the way it is.

The most obvious argument proving that sentiments about the one-club man is the fact that it's highly situational.

Not convinced? Well, think of some of the all-time great one-club men. Franco Baresi. Carles Puyol. Paolo Maldini. Sepp Maier. Francesco Totti. Wolfgang Overath.

The connection? All the players mentioned played their entire careers at clubs from major European leagues which were generally competitive during their entire stints there. In fact, the first four were part of dynasties. Of course they would have no trouble being a one-club man - it's easy at clubs like that. Had they happened to start off at a smaller, less successful club, they would've all been gone within the first three to four years of their careers.

I'd actually say that unless a player of that level is fortunate enough to begin his career at one of the 10 or so best clubs in the world, that player should not even want to be a one-club man. To me, players of that calibre should naturally want to test themselves against the toughest competition - something that would simply not be possible at many clubs.

On top of that, far too many fans conflate loyalty to a club with actual skill. This in turn has led to many one-club men as well as players who spent the vast majority of their careers with the same club to become massively overrated. It has also caused players who have frequently switched clubs to be underrated.

Once again, this makes absolutely no sense. A player does not magically improve solely by choosing to remain at the same club; neither would that same player become a worse one just by moving to a new club.

I completely understand that fans would like their best players to remain at their clubs for as long as possible. However, the reality is that today, player empowerment is greater than it has ever been and superstar footballers are more likely to seek a transfer now that they were 30, 20, or even 10 years ago. To me, this isn't a bad thing at all - in fact, it's one of the factors keeping elite-level football competitive. No player who ought to be facing off against world-class opposition in the Champions League should have to waste years of his career at a club which is clearly going nowhere.

The concept of "player loyalty" is also overblown. That's not to say that it isn't important to any players - it clearly is to some. But, that in turn brings about the question: if this concept were not mythologized to the extent which it is, would they still feel the same way?

The main point is this: there should not be a sense of moral superiority attached to being a one-club man. It's clearly one of those things which is right for some players, but not so much for others. While it may sting for fans of any club to watch a once-beloved player leave, the fact is that the player in question is most likely doing what he believes is best for his own career.

Ultimately, there are too many extenuating factors for the status of "one-club man" to be considered an achievement. It should be treated like an interesting statistic - nothing more than that.

Monday, July 12, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 166: The Triumph of the Collective

At the beginning of Euro 2020, I would not have believed anyone who would have said that Italy would go on to win it all. Before the tournament, I felt that their ceiling was capped because their best player, goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, was not at the same level as other teams' superstars such as England's Harry Kane, France's N'Golo Kanté, Belgium's Kevin De Bruyne, and Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo, among others. I also felt that the Azzurri's supporting cast was not quite on the level of those of the teams I just mentioned.

As it turned out, I and all other doubters would be proven wrong. In the final, Italy beat England in a penalty shootout following a 1-1 draw after extra time. Donnarumma saved two penalties to win the shootout for Italy including Bukayo Saka's spot-kick which would have kept England in contention had it gone in.

So, just how did they do it?

For one thing, the current Italy team is the personification of the word "synergy". Though they might not have the sheer star power of Belgium or Portugal or England, all the players on this Italy squad fit their roles perfectly while complementing everyone else's. It's certainly true that while you'd expect players like Federico Chiesa, Lorenzo Insigne, Marco Verratti, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, and Jorginho to be important contributors to this team, you would probably not have expected this from them - at least on paper. It was also thought that both members of Italy's legendary centre-back pairing of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini were past their prime and had very little left in the tank.

However, in the actual matches, it was a different story. Almost every Italian player outperformed individual pre-tournament expectations. It soon became obvious that this team was set up to magnify each player's strengths while minimizing the impact of their weaknesses - something teams with far more talent were unable to do.

Of course, much credit for this has to go to head coach Roberto Mancini. Despite being a three-time Serie A champion and Premier League champion in 2012, there had always been a nagging belief that Mancini's list of accolades overrated his actual coaching skill. What's more, Mancini had not won any major titles since City's iconic, drought-breaking Premier League triumph nine years ago.

In just one tournament, Mancini has permanently elevated his reputation. On Italy's path to the title, he easily outcoached Roberto Martínez, Luis Enrique, and Gareth Southgate. His tactical superiority was evident in the final; Italy easily countered everything England had. Such was Mancini's strategic mastery in the final that it was somewhat of a surprise that the match went to a penalty shootout.

It may also seem strange to think that a serious injury helped Italy win the title. Yet, that may be exactly what happened. In Italy's quarterfinal victory over Belgium, defender Leonardo Spinazzola suffered one of the most severe sports injuries possible: a torn Achilles. The team quickly rallied around him, offering an incredible amount of support. There seemed to be a growing sentiment within the team to "win it for Spinazzola". That may just have given Italy the extra motivation they needed to go all the way.

Although a lack of experience often hampers a team in any tournament, the fact that the only players with more than 50 caps before the tournament were Bonucci and Chiellini may have worked in Italy's favour. This is because most of this team were unburdened by the biggest failure in Italy's recent football history: missing the 2018 World Cup.

When Italy were knocked out by Sweden in the decisive World Cup qualifying tie four years ago, only nine of Italy's Euro 2020 squad were in the 23-man matchday roster. In addition, Insigne and Donnarumma were unused substitutes on that day. Thus, most of the current Italian squad had the additional advantage of not being mentally affected by that result.

Looking into the future, questions must now be asked about the possibility of Italy winning a record-equalling fifth World Cup in Qatar next year. Though they might not necessarily be the outright favourites, what they have shown us during this tournament proves that you cannot underestimate this Italy team.

Without a shadow of a doubt, the rebuild is complete - and then some.

Wednesday, July 7, 2021

The Weekly Take, Issue 165: Their Last Chance?

The second of two Copa América semifinals saw Argentina and Colombia face off for a place in the final against Brazil. It came down to a penalty shootout. Argentina goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez put on an absolute clinic in the shootout, saving three penalties to deny Los Cafeteros a spot in the final. Had Colombia made the final, they would have done so for the first time in 20 years. In 2001, Colombia beat Mexico in the final to win the continental title for their only Copa title to date.

This turn of events does bring up an important question: have Colombia missed their best chance in years to bring home a title? It certainly seems that way. Though they would have started the match against Brazil as underdogs, it must be kept in mind that Brazil are led by serial big-match underperformer Neymar. It could certainly be possible that he would once against fail to deliver on the big stage, paving the way for a Colombian victory. Of course, that's no longer relevant now.

Additionally, this is an aging Colombia team. Many of their key players such as Duván Zapata, Luis Muriel, David Ospina, and Juan Cuadrado are 30 or older. Among their younger players, none in particular move the needle. Probably their best player in the younger age bracket right now is the 25-year-old Davinson Sánchez. Though Sánchez is a solid player at centre-back, he is not even close to being the player who might take Colombia to new heights.

Some might claim that Colombia were always pretenders - that they never truly had a chance to win any tournament. Perhaps that had been true prior to this year's Copa, but the unique format of the 2021 tournament allowed Colombia's path to open up very nicely indeed. This was their opportunity; however, they failed to capitalize.

The question then becomes: what is next for Colombia? In World Cup qualifying, they are currently fifth; that position would see them miss out on an automatic spot in next year's tournament in Qatar. By no means is it a given that Colombia will qualify; Paraguay, Chile, and Peru could all potentially overtake them and knock Colombia out altogether.

Although he has only been in the position for around six months, it is becoming increasingly clear that head coach Reinaldo Rueda is not the right man in the dugout. Colombia's poor group-stage results such as a goalless draw against Venezuela as well as a loss to Peru can, at least in part, be attributed to Rueda's lack of tactical nous. This team could easily have won both matches. While the resulting lower seed did not prevent them from eventually advancing to the semifinals, it did serve as evidence that strategically, Rueda got it completely wrong.

It also feels as though Colombia have been living off the high of their 2014 World Cup quarterfinal run. The 2014 tournament was Colombia's most successful World Cup ever - the only time they ever made it beyond the round of 16. What made that run even more impressive was the fact that they did it without star striker Radamel Falcao, who had torn his ACL prior to the tournament. Though they have had solid results since then, it is unfortunate but true that Colombia's deep run then may have instilled a sense of complacency within the team.

Of course, it certainly isn't impossible for Colombia to turn it around. Though they might not have any superstars among their core players in the coming generation, there is definitely some potential to be found. Sánchez, Luis Díaz, Alfredo Morelos, and Rafael Santos Borré do have genuine potential. However, this team's upside is limited; their future seems murkier than it has ever been before.

However, if Colombia do end up failing to return to their former status, much of the blame has to ultimately fall on the shoulders of their player development. The 2014 World Cup run should have been an opportunity for them to continue building and establish themselves as a true force in South America. Unfortunately, it does appear that Colombia's best opportunity has passed them by.